The Football Analytics Show by The Power Rank and Ed Feng

Predictive analytics is a never ending game of distinguishing skill from luck. Ed Feng determines which statistics reflect the most skill for NFL quarterbacks by looking at how each statistic has evolved over time. This ends with a discussion of Derek Carr and Jared Goff.

Over the next two weeks, Ed Feng brings you 10 episodes of spoken word episodes to get you ready for the 2019 football season.

Josh Hermsmeyer of FiveThirtyEight joins me for a wide ranging conversation on the NFL. He tells us why he considers himself an analyst more than a data scientist. Then we get into play action and whether running it more times reduces its effectiveness. Finally, we discuss the 2019 prospects for Oakland, Chicago and Arizona.

Bill Connelly of ESPN joins me for a wide ranging conversation on college football. He tells us which parts of his preseason model gets broken down into offense and defense, and which doesn't. We discuss whether any team can catch Alabama and Clemson in 2019. Finally, Bill breaks down the contenders in the Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac-12. Our apologies, as the audio quality is not has high as usual due to technical difficulties.

Jim Sannes, senior writer and analyst at numberFire and FanDuel, joins me to talk the upcoming NFL season. We discuss how he ranks NFL offensive lines from 1 to 32. Then he tells us about an offensive line that isn't ranked well but has a high upside and could power a Super Bowl contender. Jim ends with a quarterback that could have a remarkable 2019 NFL season.

Gadoon Kyrollos, who goes by Spanky on Twitter, joins the show. He's a professional sports bettor who was recently profiled on The Ringer. We discuss his approach to sports betting and how sports books treat sharp bettors like himself. He also gives us a hilarious criteria for whether you're doing well as a sports bettor.

Host Ed Feng discusses his new sports betting podcast called Covering the Spread.

Evan Silva, formerly of RotoWorld, joins the show to talk predictive analytics. He begins by telling us why he's leaving RotoWorld to start his own site Establish the Run. Then we discuss the NFL team that might not win many games but you should consider for fantasy football. Finally, Evan gets into his 2 sleeper Super Bowl teams and ends with a value choice for NFL MVP.

Ed Miller, an MIT educated data scientist and writer, joins me to discuss his new book The Logic of Sports Betting. He tells us about his journey from the corporate world to poker to sports betting. Then we get into why parlays aren't necessarily bad bets, how sports books set the market and the key concept of a no hold market. 

Professor Cade Massey of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania joins me to discuss the NFL draft. We talk about his research into how NFL teams overvalue the top draft picks. While this implies that teams should trade down for more picks, Cade offers revisions to this rule in light of the importance of the QB position. Cade's research focuses on judgment under uncertainty, and he tells us how NFL teams could learn from the system they use for Wharton admissions.