The Fourcast

Welcome to Fourcast Indicators on the Iran War with Matt Frei and defence and intelligence analyst Mark Urban. Fourcast Indicators looks at the signals that analysts watch most closely - the tell-tale signs that suggest imminent and significant change may be coming.

This week we take a deep dive into the intelligence, military logistics, and the geopolitical fallout of the bombardment of Iran. We explore Donald Trump's domestic political struggles and the nervous reactions of the global markets. We also tackle the biggest strategic question of all: where is Iran's 440kg of enriched uranium and were they really just two weeks away from a nuclear bomb?

Social media giants Meta and Google have been found liable for building platforms that are addictive and a court has ordered them to pay millions in damages, but both firms say the case oversimplifies a complex issue and are expected to appeal the ruling.

In this episode of The Fourcast, we break down the case and what it could mean for the future of Big Tech. Is this a genuine turning point - a potential “Big Tobacco moment” for Silicon Valley - or just another legal challenge that tech giants will fight and ultimately move past?

Ciaran Jenkins was joined by tech journalist Chris Stokel-Walker and former Twitter head of news and journalism partnerships Vivianne Schiller.

President Trump is talking about deals to end the war with Iran, but Tehran says it’s “fake news” as they continue to exchange attacks with Israel.

So where does this war go from here, and what does an endgame actually look like?

On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei was joined by Dr Siavush Randjbar-Daemi, associate professor Modern Middle Eastern History at the University of St Andrews and retired US Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery.

Is Donald Trump backing down from a potential strike on Iran - or is this a strategic pivot? In this episode of the Fourcast, we unpack the latest twists in US-Iran tensions as Trump insists talks are “good and productive,” despite Tehran claiming a firm warning forced a retreat. With the Strait of Hormuz at the centre of the crisis and global markets reacting fast, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

Are American boots on the ground inevitable in Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu’s war with Iran? With reports that over 2,000 Marines are being deployed, questions are growing over Washington’s strategy and whether the president has a clear plan. 

Could the US attempt something as bold as seizing Kharg Island, Iran’s critical oil hub?

On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Nate Swanson, former National Security Council Iran desk official, and investigative journalist Ronen Bergman to unpack the latest developments and what comes next.

Saudi Arabia is warning it may retaliate against Iran after fresh threats to oil and gas infrastructure as Donald Trump’s administration desperately tries to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 

With strikes hitting key energy facilities across the Gulf, this conflict is no longer just military - it’s an economic war with global consequences.

So how far could this escalate? And what does it mean for energy prices, inflation and the world economy?

On this episode of The Fourcast Matt Frei is joined by The Economists defence editor Shashank Joshi and Channel 4 News’ economics editor Helia Ebrahimi.

18 days into a war that has reshaped the Middle East, the question that matters most is also the hardest to answer: who is actually winning. Washington says Iran is collapsing under the weight of thousands of strikes. Tehran claims it is bleeding its enemies and outlasting them. Oil prices are surging, missiles are still flying and the region is on edge.

In today’s episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is in Israel and he speaks to two people who understand this conflict from the inside out. Emile Hokayem, an analyst of regional security and military power. And Muhanad Seloom, a leading expert on Gulf politics and Iran’s security networks.

Across the battlefields of Ukraine, Gaza and now Iran, artificial intelligence is reshaping how wars are fought.AI is helping militaries process intelligence, identify targets and make decisions at a rapidly accelerating pace. Some believe this is the beginning of an AI revolution in warfare - one that could eventually lead to autonomous weapons and algorithmic battlefields.

So how far has this transformation already gone? Is Iran the first AI war and is the world ready for what’s coming? On this episode of The Fourcast,

Ciaran Jenkins is joined by Emelia Probasco, who was a Navy officer, later worked in the Pentagon and is now a senior fellow at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology, and Arthur Holland Michel, an AI researcher and journalist.

The conflict in Iran is entering its second week, and the shockwaves are rippling across the globe - through global markets, shipping routes and regional security alliances. In the past 24 hours, multiple ships have been hit in the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade route effectively closed by Iran, and now the Iranian regime has said the country’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, was “lightly injured” after an Israeli airstrike.

In today’s episode of The Fourcast, British‑Iranian comedian and cultural commentator Omid Djalili joins Krishnan Guru‑Murthy to explain why he believes that attacks by Trump and Israel on Iran could ultimately benefit the Iranian people if the Islamic Republic is removed.

The war in Iran is already sending shockwaves far beyond the battlefield. Stock markets are sinking, Brent crude has jumped above $100  a barrel, and G7 governments are considering tapping emergency reserves to steady the markets. Missiles landing close to critical Gulf energy infrastructure have sharpened fears that what began as a regional confrontation could tip the global economy into something far more dangerous.

The real question is whether this crisis can be contained, and if not, how vulnerable our economies really are - how fast could the world’s energy system start to break apart, and who would feel the pain first?

In today's episode of the Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Guy Laron, author of Oil Wars: The Struggle for Control That Has Shaped the Modern World and Bernard Haykel, Professor of Near Eastern Studies.