The Foxhole

Welcome to Q2 2024. While logistics are very much the squeaky wheel this quarter, we’re also glad to have coffees on the water making their way to the US from Kenya & Ethiopia, with Mexico following overland soon. Stay tuned for details on what the quarter has in store, from logistics to a surprisingly stable C market to each & every origin in which we work.

Welcome to Q1 of 2024. As we bring in the last of our Peru & launch into Ethiopia, Mexico, & Kenya seasons, we also see logistical shocks due to both war & weather buoying the C market, while coffee stocks at origin remain high. On our end, we’re confident & ready to bring in all the first fruits of the origins we know and love, as well as a couple new ventures. For details on all this as well as every origin in which we work, listen to our update.

Here we are in the final quarter of 2023, & things are looking relatively stable for a change—or at least as close as we’ve gotten in a few years. On top of stabilizing logistics & the C market, Peru containers have started landing with Colombia & Rwanda close behind. Listen for details on the state of logistics, the C market, & every country in which we work.

As we enter Q3, the C market is down with further drops possible on the horizon, while its volatility continues to create complexity. Local prices that have been elevated for years are now beginning to follow suit as the all-important Peru season concretizes, but again, volatility plays a key role. Our warehouses are flush with the latest & greatest as well as a diversity of prime lots from the 22-23 crops, holding their own on quality & priced to move in order to make room for newcomers. As always there are plenty of wrinkles domestically & across the coffee world, which we’ll delve into in depth. 

As we head into the second quarter of 2023, many threads from the beginning of the year remain. Logistics continue normalizing but are still tangled in various ways & regions—not quite returned to pre-disruption but overall, trending positively. The C market tentatively remains more stable, while differentials in our actual sourcing relationships remain largely untethered to it. Mexico season is coming in strong despite labor shortages due to & causing inflation, an issue in Guatemala as well. While logistical challenges remain in Ethiopia at large, our Ethiopia containers are all afloat. Spring has sprung & the coffees that this season conjures in our minds will be here soon. Details on all of this & more.

As we wrap Peru acquisition & shipping season, begin Ethiopia procurement, & prep the lab in Mexico, we’re seeing some distinct trends continue from 2022. For one, logistics challenges including prices & availability have continued to ease, although the situation is still more complex & expensive than it was pre-2020/21. Another key trend, which we noted in our last update & which has become more pronounced than ever, is the decoupling of the C market price (down substantially from its peak) from the prices we’re actually seeing at origin for top quality coffee in the tiers we purchase, which in many cases are higher than ever. Listen for more specifics & analysis on that, as well as origin detail.

As we enter the final quarter of the year, logistics issues & price volatility persist & staying the course while remaining agile is the name of the game. The story of this particular moment seems to be that even when the C market dips—it’s notably both high & volatile as it’s been all year—local prices, especially for top-tier quality, remain astronomical. Solid relationships & communication, from the farm level to logistics, are key. Listen for more on logistics, market dynamics, & in-country activity at origin.

Red Fox Coffee Merchants Q3 2022 Origin & Shipping Update

Red Fox Coffee Merchants Q2 2022 Origin & Shipping Update

Red Fox Coffee Merchants Q1 2022 Origin & Shipping Update