The Grumpy Strategists

Marcus and Michael pursue littoral dominance in Canberra's Lake Burley-Griffin while pondering the Australian Government's new definition of Australian industry, and PM Albanese's defence agreement with former military strongman turned Indonesian President Prabowo. They send Treasurer Chalmers best wishes wrestling with Korea's Hanhwa Ocean's bid to buy more of Aussie shipbuilder Austal in the face of Japanese industrial concerns around the Mogami frigates given Austal's role. They end with the fantastic news that the US military cutting its Army helicopter forces will release 6,500 trained recruits for Australia's new purchase of (oops) US helicopters, for our leading edge Army......Great to see the 5 Eyes people pipeline opening wide.

The Grumpies consider the net effect of US President Trump's Asia tour, and are outraged he was gifted a REPLICA crown. They examine the idea of South Korea building nuclear submarines, potentially in Philadelphia to give Americans jobs,,,,,,(the idea AUKUS set such a high threshold for nuclear sub tech sharing it would not result in proliferation now looks quaint). They end by going over a new report putting a $2.4 trillion potential price tag on the US Golden Dome missile and space defence system, and taking a tour themselves through the splendours of the Indo Pac arms show at the Sydney convention centre to see Australians' tax dollars at work.

The Grump Strategists move back into their renovated bunker deep in the Brindabellas to assess the finely-managed Albanese-Trump meeting. Full marks to PM Albanese & Ambassador Rudd for stage managing & delivering the meeting. The critical minerals deal has been celebrated as historic. It was a delightfully cheap distraction from tricky questions about Australian defence spending. But the bigger issues the meeting surfaced cut to the core of Indo Pacific security and Australian assumptions about a joint allied strategy focused on China. Meanwhile, back in sunny Canberra, Estimates hearings in the Parliament give some pearls about SSN-AUKUS design maturity, defence recruiting and the Aust-PNG Defence Treaty.

Marcus is back from Australia's croc-filled Outback. He catches up with Michael on global events: America's end to a Baltic states security initiative and the Trump Administrations' prep work for a Xi-Trump meeting - a Tik Tok half deal & pauses to a $400m US military aid package for Taiwan. They go Premier Allan's extraordinary connection of Victoria to Beijing's education system, and look into recent Australian Defence announcements on Anduril's Ghost Shark & the even more elusive Henderson Maritime Precinct. King Charles' odd early commissioning of the UK's 6th Astute class sub after 12 years of construction rounds out this 50th Anniversary Episode.

In Episode 49, Marcus and Michael go over the lessons for Australia from Europe's approach to dealing with an unreliable US over the war in Ukraine. They discuss the now disturbing centralisation of authority in the single person of the President in the US, and fly a new policy kite for growing the alliance in a time of Trump - reinventing US extended deterrence by requesting deployment of the US National Guard & Marines onto Australian streets. You heard it here first. The episode ends with the tragic tale of Richard Marles' empty-handed visit to Washington.

Ukrainian Ambassador Vasyl Myroshnychenko speaks with a grumpy strategist about his path from business to diplomacy, & the surreal experience of families - including his - like fighting in the Russian military during WW2 & now fighting against Russian invaders in their homeland. They cover connections between the war & our part of the world - North Korea and China's direct support to Russia & also Russia's efforts to grow its military relationship with Indonesia. The episode sets out the value of a new partnership on military and industrial cooperation between Australia and Ukraine. Ukraine needs support but is also now a source of military technical advantage.

Before Dr Hellyer jets off to Samoa, the Grumpy Strategists go Grand - Australian grand strategy looked at through its two enduring pillars of: 1. economic prosperity by mainlining into China's economy, and 2. a strategic pillar that relies on American security. Great stuff for the last 4 decades of 'rules based global order'ing, not so great for the competitive power-based world we're in now. We'll get back to drilling into all things Aust Defence shortly....maybe.

The Grumpy Strategists drill into the facts behind Australian Govt announcements on drones to find disappointment: celebrating $16.7m on counter drone systems while spending $11m per day on AUKUS puts things into perspective, as does the fact Australia had roughly 700 drones in 2024 while the Russians fire 800 a night at Ukraine. They try to bridge the huge gap between Aust-UK AUKUS announcements & the UK's actual capacity to build subs & deploy its military. Then Marcus surfaces from trawling through past years' Pentagon budget papers to find that US sub deliveries have slipped back on average three years since AUKUS was announced.....instead of building more, faster.

One Grumpy Strategist talks with Beaten Zone Ventures boss Steve Baxter. They set out Steve's journey from the Army to business success in the tech world, to now running an outfit all about investing in smart Australian companies making the best defence tech on the planet - for everyone but Australia....Changing that could be as simple - but big - as adopting the Ukrainian military's almost gamified 'Brave1' model - a market-based program that has soldiers using an online shop and tokens earned by destroying particular Russian systems. Delegation, empowerment and speed brings results.

The Grumpies go over an Audit report revealing the comprehensive, systemic failures of Defence, the Navy and its contractors to maintain and operate the Navy's two biggest ships. The obvious question is how can the Navy be capable 'stewards' operating and maintaining nuclear powered subs? But there's the good news that 8 years of continuous naval shipbuilding have delivered one, mostly harmless, patrol vessel to the Navy, and our Army has test fired HIMARS. The episode ends with the Grumpies checking in with Penny Wong and PM Albanese's big but confusing speeches before his China trip. Bandwagoning begins as free-riding continues.