The Gustonomics Podcast

For decades, free trade had been touted by business leaders, economists, and policy makers as the best way for countries to exchange goods and services. But that’s all changed in the last several years, as tariffs have re-entered the conversation as an effective tool to protect American businesses. Caleb and Liz discuss the trend, what it means for small businesses, and where things go from here.

Jobs Report Revisions, Explained [Gustonomics Podcast]

Current Employment Statistics - CES (National) [BLS]

Recession? What Recession? [Gustonomics Podcast]

Harris and Trump Embrace Tariffs, Though Their Approaches Differ [NYT]

Two of the most critical categories of goods for consumers—food and energy—aren’t considered for one of the most critical measures of inflation, Core CPI. Why is that? Caleb asks the questions, Liz has the answers.

Consumer prices up 2.9 percent from July 2023 to July 2024 [BLS]

Consumer Price Index News Release [BLS]

Real Earnings Summary [BLS]

Real Earnings News Release [BLS]

Consumer Price Index [BLS]

Caleb and Liz discuss the most recent jobs report that shows a little softness, as well as the increasing cost of homeowners insurance and how that will ripple through the economy.

Employment Situation Summary [BLS]

Positive economic signals continue to surprise observers. Caleb and Liz discuss the factors that pushed second quarter GDP to exceed expectations and what that means for small businesses.

Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate) [BEA]

Personal Income and Outlays, June 2024 [BEA]

It’s an unfortunate reality that many Americans have insufficient savings in their retirement accounts, if they have access to one at all. In an effort to give Americans a better chance to save, many states have turned to state-sponsored retirement plans. Many of these plans either require businesses with as few as a single employee to either offer a retirement plan, like a 401(k), or enroll that employee into the state’s plan. Caleb and Liz discuss the trend.

Perhaps the best indicator of a recession is known as the Sahm Rule. But it’s little known outside the economics world. So what is it and how can regular everyday businesses make use of this esoteric economic indicator? Caleb and Liz talk it out.

Personal Consumption Expenditures: Chain-type Price Index [FRED]

The economy has been incredibly resilient in the wake of the pandemic, strong even. Yet survey after survey continues to show that many people don’t share that perspective. In this episode, Caleb and Liz discuss this phenomenon, the contradictions within it, and how we can separate reality from all the noise.

Anger about the economy is everywhere [Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM)]

Revisions to economic data are crucial so users of that data have the most accurate and current information possible. Still, recent revisions to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’s monthly job report have been larger than some observers would like. Caleb and Liz discuss the trend and how we can think about them in the broader business climate.

The Employment Situation [BLS]

The economy continues to defy expectations, remaining strong in many fundamental areas despite many warnings of tough times ahead. In this episode, Caleb and Liz discuss the latest jobs report, inflation, interest rates, and the other factors that are keeping the economy in fine shape.

The Employment Situation [BLS]

There’s a widespread belief that Millennials are fickle job-hoppers. And while that may be true, particularly early in their careers, data shows that they’ve been about as likely to change jobs as Baby Boomers were at the same age. Caleb and Liz discuss the trends, possible explanations, and what employers should think about when it comes to hiring and employee retention.

National Longitudinal Surveys [BLS]

Boomers data: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/nlsoy.nr0.htm 

Millennials data: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/nlsyth.nr0.htm 

Job losers as % of total unemployed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS13023622