Economists don’t like to talk with certainty about the future of the economy. Instead, they talk about probabilities. Liz breaks down the risks to the economy and why it means that a downturn is currently more probable than continued growth, even if neither is as likely as a stable outlook.

A Brief History Of U.S. Government Shutdowns and Why Other Countries Do Not Have Them [PGPF]

The economy added twice the expected number of jobs in September - 336,000. Liz breaks down the jobs report, explains why the top-line number is becoming less useful, and why not everyone is feeling “good job market” vibes.

About 43.5 million Americans resumed payments on $1.8 trillion dollars of student debt on October 1st. There's widespread concern about potential economic fallout. Liz breaks it down to describe what borrowers, businesses, and economists can expect.

Income-Based Repayment Program [FSA]

Employer-Sponsored Student Loan Assistance [US Chamber]

Liz explains the connection between interest rates and stock prices. This is a companion to “The Stock Market is Not the Economy”

When the economy is doing well, shouldn’t the stock market be too? Not necessarily. Liz breaks down why the stock market and the economy don’t always go together, and what you should pay attention to if you want to understand what’s ahead for you.

The equity market and GDP: Less linked than you might think

Gross domestic product, aka GDP, is the best known economic indicator out there. It gets thrown around by news reporters, politicians and commentators, all the time, and without much context. So what is it really? And is it really that great at telling us anything about the economy. Liz breaks it down.

Labor unions are having a moment. Or several actually. But in the grand scheme of things, the labor activism of the last couple of years isn’t necessarily a sign that unions are making a comeback. In this week’s episode, Liz puts the recent strikes in context, and explains how to think about them.

The Federal Reserve’s next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is coming up and Liz Wilke is here to explain it to you.

Inflation has been on everyone’s mind for the last couple of years. In this episode, Liz tackles the hottest topic in economics, how it makes us feel, and why we should care about it for more than its impact on our wallets.

Inflation calculators:

• Barron's

Eight states and six metro areas have enacted pay transparency laws in the last few years. The benefits of these policies to workers are well known and much celebrated, but the drawbacks less so. Liz explains both sides and what your position on the debate might say about you.

Equilibrium Effects of Pay Transparency [HBS]