The Kākā by Bernard Hickey

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit thekaka.substack.com

Briefly in the news in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate:

* The Lead: A swathe of new mayors are promising local austerity after voters punished councillors and mayors who pushed through big rates increases in the last two years. This will add another wave of uncertainty and fear into local economies already worried about central Government spending cuts.

* The Sidebar: The Government has shifted the goalposts for methane reductions to half way up the field to reduce the pain for farmers, which the Greens and Labour argue is a breach of an election promise.

* The Number of the Day: 32.65% - That’s percentage of enrolled voters who voted in local elections nationwide, as of Saturday night. (LGNZ) The turnout in the metropolitan areas was 28.8%, while rural and provincial councils had a combined turnout of 43.6%.

* The Chart of the Day: Net interest paid by central Government improved from $2 billion to just over $1 billion by the end of March, which represents less than 1% of total Government revenues.

* Quote of the day: “The Government has framed this decision as one grounded in science. In reality, this is a political choice. It is inappropriate and dangerous to imply that it aligns with global scientific understanding of the emissions reductions necessary for 1.5°C, or that it is ethically defensible.” Lawyers for Climate Action Executive Director Jessica Palairet in a statement.

Subscribe in full as a paying subscriber for more detail and analysis in the full video and podcast above and below the paywall below. There’s a two-minute free preview for browsers. Paying subscribers support my work being done in the public interest here and via my appearances on other media such as RNZ & 1News. Paying subscribers also get early and full access to our webinars, our chat room, and my morning ‘Early Bird’ post with the full ‘Picks n’ Mixes’ digests of news links, and can comment on articles.

The Lead: Austerity V2.0 is about to begin

I spoke to Association of Salaried Medical Specialists (ASMS) Economist Andrea Black this week about a report she’s produced on the economic, social & financial costs of the worsening health of our workforce.

The 52-page report, titled Managed decline: The Health of New Zealand 2011 to 2024, details a worsening in the health of the working-age population, in particular around mental health and obesity.

Andrea used Treasury cost-benefit models to work out the potential costs to society and the economy of up to $10.6 billion per year through lost hours worked, falling productivity, presenteeism and lost taxes because of the sickening health of the workforce. She estimated that a continued worsening at the same rate would increase that loss by an extra $3.3 billion by 2035/36.

We talked about:

* How the self-rated health of New Zealanders has declined significantly.

* 80% of health determinants were outside the health system.

* How 22,000 more people are out of work due to health issues.

* Presenteeism contributes significantly to lost productivity.

* Mental health issues had a substantial economic impact.

* Social determinants like housing and income were crucial for health.

* Health impacts not only individuals but also families and communities.

These tables charts in the report tell the story:

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to Health Trends in New Zealand

03:07 Self-Rated Health: A Decline in Perception

06:05 Economic Implications of Health Deterioration

09:05 Social Determinants of Health and Community Impact

Subscribe in full as a paying subscriber for more detail and analysis in the full video and podcasts that go out with my Early Bird and Daily Chorus email newsletters. Paying subscribers support my work being done in the public interest here, and via my appearances on other media such as RNZ & 1News. Paying subscribers also get early and full access to our webinars, our chat room, my morning ‘Early Bird’ post with the full ‘Picks n’ Mixes’ digests of news links, and can comment on articles.

Ka kite ano

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking with regular guests Cathrine Dyer and Robert Patman about the global economy, local and international politics and climate change.

This week’s special guest was Israel Cooper from The Home Foundation.

We talked about:

* The economy, the Reserve Bank’s rate cut and global financial bubbles.

* This week’s annual report on the marine environment by the Ministry for the Environment and Stats NZ, including how the seas around Aotearoa are warming 34% faster than the rest of the world and that $180 billion of residential property is exposed to floods and slips. We also talked about this Op-Ed by James Renwick et al for The Public Health Communications Centre on the health dangers of climate change.

* The Gaza peace plan and the controversies here about New Zealand’s Gaza stance;

* The housing crisis and how to solve it (no biggie).

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in this year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free. Also, here’s a couple of special offers: $3/month or $30/year for under 30s & $6.50/month or $65/year for over 65s who rent.)

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit thekaka.substack.com

Briefly in the news this morning in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate:

* The Lead: The Reserve Bank has cut the Official Cash Rate by a ‘bazooka’-sized 50 basis points to 2.5% and has indicated it may cut by more in November and February. Financial markets see the OCR dropping as far as 2.0%. Kiwibank Economist Jarrod Kerr told me last night a sub-2.0% OCR is possible if the economy continues to fail to fire.

* The Sidebar: The monthly poll by National Party’s pollster, Curia, found National’s support falling under 30% for the second time this term and behind Labour for the sixth time this year.

* The Number of the Day: The poll also found Labour Leader Chris Hipkins rising above PM Christopher Luxon for the second time this term. Luxon’s net favourability rating at -14%, fell two points from a month ago, while Hipkins’ net favourability was fell four points to -2%.

* The Detail of the Day: Luxon’s net favourability rating is now worse than Erica Stanford’s on -7%. ACT voters put Stanford’s net favourability at 10.9%. NZ First voters put Stanford at 3.8%, with Luxon on -25.6%.

* The Chart of the Day: Curia’s poll puts the Labour-Green-Te Pāti Māori grouping ahead of the National-ACT-NZ First coalition in Parliamentary terms for the third time this term, if the poll was replicated in Parliament.

Subscribe in full as a paying subscriber for more detail and analysis in the full video and podcast above and below the paywall below. There’s a two-minute free preview for browsers. Paying subscribers support my work being done in the public interest here and via my appearances on other media such as RNZ & 1News. Paying subscribers also get early and full access to our webinars, our chat room, my morning ‘Early Bird’ post with the full ‘Picks n’ Mixes’ digests of news links, and can comment on articles.

The Lead: An OCR starting with a 1 by 2026?

Last night I spoke with Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr last night after the RBNZ’s 50 basis point cut in the OCR. He says the cash rate may need to go under 2% to get the economy going again. Here’s his full note on the decision.

We talked about:

* How interest rates need to be below neutral to encourage growth.

* The housing market’s stagnation was concerning for overall economic health.

* Whether communication from the Reserve Bank has led to confusion among businesses. Jarrod says it has.

* A new governor at the Reserve Bank may bring better leadership.

* The housing market is expected to recover slowly over the next few years.

* Investors are waiting for mortgage rates to align with rental yields.

* Whether Debt to income controls are currently a major constraint on the housing market. Jarrod says not.

* Wholesale rates have fallen, indicating a positive market reaction.

* The depreciation of the Kiwi dollar may boost tourism and exports.

Chapters

00:00Reserve Bank’s Decision on Cash Rate

02:57Impact of Interest Rate Cuts on the Economy

06:07Housing Market Dynamics and Economic Growth

08:52Market Reactions and Future Projections

Subscribe in full as a paying subscriber for more detail and analysis in the full video and podcasts that go out with my Daily Chorus email newsletters. Paying subscribers support my work being done in the public interest here, and via my appearances on other media such as RNZ & 1News. Paying subscribers also get early and full access to our webinars, our chat room, my morning ‘Early Bird’ post with the full ‘Picks n’ Mixes’ digests of news links, and can comment on articles.

Ka kite ano

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Last night I spoke with The Urban Advisory’s Managing Director Dr Natalie Allen, who has released the first results of a new longitudinal survey on the experiences and aspirations around housing of renters and owners.

The New Zealand Housing Survey is a nationwide study designed by The Urban Advisory and analysed by the University of Auckland. It was conducted with 2,587 adults aged 16 and over between August 2024 and February 2025 and found:

* Nearly 75% of renters expressed dissatisfaction with the housing options available to them;

* 53% of non-homeowners said they didn’t own a home because they ‘can’t afford to buy anywhere’;

* While 75% of homeowners “strongly agree” that their home is stable and secure, only 30% of renters feel the same; and,

* Most renters expect their next move will be by choice and 47% plan to move in the next year, however, nearly 20% anticipate being forced to move.

Allen says the survey showed the unmet demand for affordable homes in apartments, townhouses and other ‘co-housing’ situations in locations close to work, schools and other amenities.

“These statistics highlight the stark disparities in housing experiences across Aotearoa. For some, a lack of housing mobility means they’re stuck in place, even when they want or need to move.

“For many others, constant relocation is the norm, driven by the absence of affordable, suitable options. This instability has far-reaching consequences, directly affecting educational attendance, academic outcomes, and economic productivity.

“There’s a big gap between what people want and what sort of housing is being delivered. The gap is between the public housing sector and the private market, and to bridge it will require flexible support and more housing options.

“Until the gap is understood, which is the purpose of this ongoing research, and addressed, New Zealanders won’t have the range of housing options they need to thrive.” The Urban Advisory’s Managing Director Dr Natalie Allen

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to the New Zealand Housing Survey

02:50 Understanding Renters’ Perspectives

05:53 Housing Preferences and Trends

09:02 Densification and Community Needs

Here is the summary of the first year’s results and the full results in PDF form.

Subscribe in full as a paying subscriber for more detail and analysis in the full video and podcasts that go out with my Daily Chorus email newsletters. Paying subscribers support my work being done in the public interest here, and via my appearances on other media such as RNZ & 1News. Paying subscribers also get early and full access to our webinars, our chat room, my morning ‘Early Bird’ post with the full ‘Picks n’ Mixes’ digests of news links, and can comment on articles.

Ka kite ano

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Last night I spoke with economist Ganesh R Ahirao, who has written another letter with 19 other economists to PM Christopher Luxon and Minister of Finance Nicola Willis, calling on them to abandon their fiscally stringent approach to the economy.

Here’s the letter:

We discussed:

* the Government’s sole focus on cutting interest rates as the way to boost the economy;

* the need for investment in infrastructure and public services rather than solely focusing on reducing debt; and,

* the disconnect between financial management and economic growth.

We talked about how:

* Austerity measures have historically failed to solve economic problems;

* Government debt is not the primary issue; external debt is more critical;

* The private sector has not stepped in to fill gaps in the economy;

* Economic resilience requires investment in infrastructure and services;

* Reducing government spending may exacerbate economic downturns;

* The current fiscal policy lacks a clear rationale for its approach;

* Saving for a rainy day should include economic preparedness, not just financial savings;

Chapters:

00:00 Economic Concerns and Government Response

09:50Rethinking Fiscal Policy and Economic Resilience

Subscribe in full as a paying subscriber for more detail and analysis in the full video and podcasts that go out with my Daily Chorus email newsletters. Paying subscribers support my work being done in the public interest here, and via my appearances on other media such as RNZ & 1News. Paying subscribers also get early and full access to our webinars, our chat room, my morning ‘Early Bird’ post with the full ‘Picks n’ Mixes’ digests of news links, and can comment on articles.

Ka kite ano

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

In the final week of council elections, I spoke with The Integrity Institute Director Bryce Edwards about the need for more transparency & vigilance around lobbyists & candidates in local democracies.

It followed this detailed comment piece from Bryce.

We talked about:

* the lack of scrutiny in local government;

* the influence of lobbying;

* the need for greater transparency and integrity in political processes;

* the connections between local politicians and corporate lobbyists; and,

* the risks of foreign influence.

We also talked about the need to:

* introduce a lobbyist register, including at local Government level;

* probably to be managed by an Electoral Commission, which should also manage local elections; and,

* especially as councils start using Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) more intensively.

Chapters

00:00 - The State of Local Democracy in New Zealand

07:02 - The Role of Lobbyists in Local Politics

10:47 - Foreign Influence and Local Governance

12:57 - Calls for Integrity and Transparency Overhaul

Subscribe in full as a paying subscriber for more detail and analysis in the full video and podcasts that go out with my Daily Chorus email newsletters. Paying subscribers support my work being done in the public interest here, and via my appearances on other media such as RNZ & 1News. Paying subscribers also get early and full access to our webinars, our chat room, my morning ‘Early Bird’ post with the full ‘Picks n’ Mixes’ digests of news links, and can comment on articles.

Ka kite ano

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Briefly in the news this morning in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate:

* The Lead: The NZIER’s September quarter survey of business confidence found a slump in expectations about the wider economy and businesses’ own activity in the next three months. Businesses reported they shed more staff during the quarter and were no more confident about employing more in the December quarter.

* The Sidebar: The survey results increased the chances the Reserve Bank would cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by a ‘bazooka’-sized 50 basis points to 2.5% at 2pm today, rather than the 25 basis points most economists had previously expected. The Kiwi dollar fell 0.6% to 58.07 USc and one-year wholesale interest rates fell three basis points to 2.51% yesterday. BNZ and TSB cut more fixed mortgage rates late yesterday to bring them into line with the others.

* The Scoop of the Day is from Susan Edmunds at RNZ documenting that about 3000 people receive NZ Super who are not yet 65, and three who are under 30.

* The Investigation of the Day is from Paula Penfold at Stuff on the human misery caused by gambling.

* The Deep-Dive of the Day is from Layla Bailey-McDowell for RNZ on what youth homelessness experts in Auckland are saying about the Jobseeker changes.

* The Interview of the Day is by Pheobe Utteridge for Stuff with jobless man Robert Purchase, who has applied for 8,000 jobs in two years. It’s all about clean slate reform on past convictions.

Subscribe in full as a paying subscriber for more detail and analysis in the full video and podcast above. There’s a two-minute free preview for browsers. Paying subscribers support my work being done in the public interest here and via my appearances on other media such as RNZ & 1News. Paying subscribers also get early and full access to our webinars, our chat room, my morning ‘Early Bird’ post with the full ‘Picks n’ Mixes’ digests of news links, and can comment on articles.

The Lead: Economy ‘stuck in the mud’

The news from the economy got worse for the Government yesterday. It will be praying for the Reserve Bank to cut the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points at 2pm. That’s seen as more likely after a dire business confidence survey for the September was released yesterday by the NZIER.

It found a slump in expectations about the wider economy and businesses’ own activity in the next three months. Businesses reported they shed more staff during the quarter and were no more confident about employing more in the December quarter.

“The economy may have turned a corner, but we are failing to gain traction to get out of this hole - the wheels are spinning in the mud.” ASB Senior Economist Jane Turner on the QSBO survey.

The survey found:

* Businesses reporting lower activity in the three months, with a net 14% down in Q3 vs a net 22% down in Q2;

* Business expectations about the next three months worsened, with a net 9% expecting improvement vs the net 18% who said in Q2 they expected improvement in Q3;

* Yet again, the actual experienced activity (-14%) was much worse than expected (+18%);

* Businesses reported shedding jobs in the last quarter, with a net 23% cutting workers, up from a net 12% cutting jobs in the June quarter;

* Business expectations for hiring in the next quarter was stuck at a net 4% expecting to hire more;

* Outcomes for jobs in Q3 (-23%) were again much worse than the +4% expected for the quarter when businesses were surveyed in Q2.

* Investment intentions for plant & machinery deteriorated to -13% vs +8% in the June quarter

* Investment intentions for buildings slumped to -20% vs -1% in the June quarter.

The Sidebar: The dire QSBO makes 50 bps more likely

The survey results increased the chances the Reserve Bank would cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by a ‘bazooka’-sized 50 basis points to 2.5% at 2pm today, rather than the 25 basis points most economists had previously expected.

The Kiwi dollar fell 0.6% to 58.07 USc and one-year wholesale interest rates fell three basis points to 2.51% yesterday. BNZ and TSB cut more fixed mortgage rates late yesterday to bring them into line with the others.

“More support is needed, the RBNZ needs to get there faster and deliver a 50 basis point cut or risk delivering the stimulus too late to matter to households and businesses. We expect a follow up cut of 2.25% in November.” ASB Senior Economist Jane Turner in a note.

Chart of the day: Worse than during Covid

My Picks n’ Mixes of links elsewhere

Top Pick n’ Mix Six

* The Lead: Mandy Te for Interest: Economy ‘spinning in the mud’ - 50 point cut to the OCR ‘needed’

* The Sidebar: Gyles Beckford for RNZ: Weaker business survey tips odds towards bigger rate cut

* Scoop of the day: Susan Edmunds for RNZ: The 20-somethings getting the pension

* Investigation of the day: Paula Penfold for Stuff: ‘Gnawing on dog bones to survive’: The lonely addiction where no one ever wins

* Deep-dive of the day: Layla Bailey-McDowell for RNZ: Jobseeker changes ‘out of touch’, youth homelessness group warns

* Interview of the day: Pheobe Utteridge for Stuff with jobless man Robert Purchase: Almost 8000 applications, no job: Man still haunted by what he did 28 years ago

Full paying subscribers can see the full list of Picks n’ Mixes in my Early Bird post on Substack this morning.

Cartoon of the Day: A teaching moment

Timeline-cleansing nature pic

Ka kite ano

Bernard

PS: Here is the PDF of my presentation in the Chorus video above.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Briefly in the news this morning in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate:

* The Lead: Facing criticism over cancelling benefits for 4,300 jobless youth and forcing them to go home and be supported by their parents, PM Christopher Luxon said last night there were plenty of jobs in regional areas and these 18-19 year olds should move to find work. Luxon said: “If you want a job, you go where the jobs are. I encourage anyone to do what it takes to get a job.”

* The Sidebar: Opposition Leader Chris Hipkins responded: “New Zealanders are hearing that signal and they are moving out of the country - 200 a day.”

* The Scoop of the Day is from Jess Roden for 1News on cancer diagnosis and treatment delays in the South Island.

* The Investigation of the Day is from Nicholas Jones for Stuff on how the diabetes crisis means a record number of patients are losing toes and feet.

* The Deep-Dive of the Day is from Adam Burns for RNZ, documenting the awful removal of homeless campers from the carpark of a church in Christchurch.

* The Op-Ed of the Day is the fresh letter to the PM from a group of economists calling for a reversal of the Government’s tight fiscal policies.

Subscribe in full as a paying subscriber for more detail and analysis in the full video and podcast above. There’s a two-minute free preview for browsers. Paying subscribers support my work being done in the public interest here and in my appearances on other media such as RNZ & 1News. Paying subscribers also get early and full access to our webinars, our chat room, my morning ‘Picks n’ Mixes’ digests of news links and can comment on articles.

‘The world doesn’t owe you a living. Move to to find a job.’

PM Christopher Luxon was last night forced to defend the Government’s moves to take the jobless benefit off 4,300 unemployed 18-19 year olds and make them stay or return home to be supported by parents on less than $65,529 per annum.

All for the sake of $39 million a year in savings from not paying the jobless benefit to an estimated 4,300 unemployed 18 and 19 year olds.

He walked right into the obvious trap, or fundamental flaw in the policy, depending on your point of view.

He was asked in last night’s post-Cabinet news conference if he would encourage people to move away from towns like Kawerau, where there were 708 Jobseeker recipients in June but just three current vacancies listed on Trade Me, as The Post-$’s Henry Cooke reported.

“I’m not happy to consign young people to a life of welfare. We care about them. We want them to be successful and I make no apologies about that.

“If you want a job, you go where the jobs are I encourage anyone to do what it takes to get a job.” PM Christopher Luxon

Luxon pointed to areas jobseekers could go, including Christchurch, Dargaville, and the Hawke’s Bay. The Kaipara District, which includes Dargaville, had 1404 Jobseeker receipients in June but just 16 vacancies listed on Trade Me in early October, as Henry pointed out.

But Luxon persisted.

“Go talk to folks in our horticulture industry. There are jobs across the country.” PM Christopher Luxon

On Sunday, Luxon had also given some advice to the 15,045 teenagers on the jobseeker benefit.

“The world doesn’t owe you a living and nor, except in limited circumstances, do taxpayers.” Luxon.

‘That dog don’t hunt real good.’

He went further last Friday, while speaking to business leaders from Rotorua’s Chamber of Commerce at the Pullman Hotel, testing a few lines before the announcement.

Unemployment rates were not high compared to those in the past, he said, as reported by The Rotorua Post’s Annabel Reid. He said, for example, the jobless rate reached more than 10% in the 1990s when he left university. Yet a record number were on the jobseeker benefit, and “that dog don’t hunt real good”.

He was reported as saying people who went on a main benefit before 25 typically stayed on it for 20–22 years, costing the country roughly $20,000 a year each. It would be better to “pull that money forward”, and invest in keeping young people in school by showing them “we care about you, we love you, we want you to do better than consign yourself to a life of welfare”.

For the 18- and 19-year-olds already out of school, he said: “I’m sorry, we’re not paying your benefit … That’s your parents’ responsibility … You’ve got to get off the couch, stop playing PlayStation and go find a job.” Luxon on Friday in Rotorua.

‘They’re leaving alright. To Australia.’

Labour leader Chris Hipkins said later last night that young people were taking up Luxon’s advice of moving, but to Australia.

“The Prime Minister is saying people need to move in order to get jobs. New Zealanders are hearing that signal and they are moving out of the country - 200 a day.

“There are 36,000 fewer jobs today than there were when Christopher Luxon became Prime Minister. Labour leader Chris Hipkins

Ikea received more than 25,000 applicants for 500 positions at its new Auckland mega-store, which is due to open on December 4, a ratio of 50 to one. (RNZ)

Chart of the day: 30 jobless per vacancy in Rotorua

My Picks n’ Mixes of links elsewhere

Top Pick n’ Mix Six

* The Lead: RNZ: Luxon defends cuts to benefits for youth

* Sidebar: Giles Dexter & Kim Baker Wilson for RNZ: Jobseeker changes: ‘Punished for economic crisis they didn’t create’

* Scoop of the day: Jess Roden for 1News: Canterbury oncologists on how delays impact lives of patients.

* Investigation of the day: Nicholas Jones for Stuff: Kiwis are losing limbs in record numbers - and most never see it coming

* Deep-dive of the day: Adam Burns for RNZ: ‘It’s heartbreaking’: Homeless people forced to leave church grounds

* Op-Ed of the day: Craig Renney , Ganesh R Ahirao & 18 others: Our current economic approach is causing real harm. We need to change track

Full paying subscribers can see the full list of Picks n’ Mixes in my Early Bird post on Substack this morning.

Cartoon of the Day: ‘Unless you’re a landlord…’

Timeline-cleansing nature pic

Ka kite ano

Bernard

PS: Here is the PDF of my presentation in the Chorus video above.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe