The Kākā by Bernard Hickey

Briefly for all subscribers for at 7 am on Tuesday, July 15, the key scoops, breaking news, deep-dives, editorials, analysis and other news links in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate today are:

* The services sector joined the manufacturing sector in contracting in June, a new BusinessNZ-BNZ survey found yesterday. BNZ downgraded its Q2 GDP forecast to a contraction after the surveys. Stats NZ also reported yesterday another 0.2% fall in total spending with electronic cards in June, which means retail sales have fallen 7.5% in inflation-adjusted terms in the last two years. See more below in Charts and Docs of the day, and in the podcast above.

* Perhaps ironically, Singapore reported better-than-expected GDP growth in the June quarter yesterday, after its Government expanded construction spending on housing. The Government has slashed spending on new housing in the last 18 months. See more below in Docs of the day.

* As BNZ Economist Doug Steel wrote yesterday in the Quote of the Day: “The timeline for New Zealand’s long-awaited economic recovery just keeps getting pushed further and further out.”

* Today’s scoop of the day is from Cécile Meier, who reports for BusinessDesk-$ this morning that the School Lunch Collective has started using a 25% cheaper offal mince blend for school lunches, without telling anyone. See more below in my Top Scoops of the morning.

* Jessica Roden also had the scoop last night for 1News on Nelson Hospital creating ghost appointments to meet a Government target to reduce waiting times. See more in Top Six Pick ‘n’ Mix below.

* Today’s good news story is from Eloise Gibson at RNZ on the surging use of bicycles. See more below in Top Goods News of the day.

Paying subscribers hear more detail, analysis and commentary in the podcast above and get the links and sourcing below the paywall, along with my full Picks ‘n’ Mixes for this morning. I’ll open it up for all to read, listen and share if paying subscribers give it more than 100 likes.

My Top Six Pick ’n’ Mix for Tuesday, July 15

* Investigation by Cécile Meier for BusinessDesk-$: From prime to offal: Cheap cuts in school lunches

* Investigation by Guyon Espiner for RNZ: Alcohol guidelines outdated and 'understate risks', update halted after lobbyists complained

* Scoop by Jessica Roden for 1News: Nelson Hospital accused of making 'ghost' appointments for patients.

* Rowan Quinn for RNZ: Auckland EDs overloaded, patients diverted to clinics

* Evie Richardson for RNZ’s Checkpoint: 'Real strain': Student nurses, midwives on workload, financial pressure

* Laura Walters for Newsroom Pro-$ (free from tomorrow): Scrapping census could compromise infrastructure planning

The best of the rest

Scoops and breaking news here and overseas this morning

* Thomas Manch for The Post-$: PM’s department confirms job losses

* Thomas Coughlan for NZ Herald-$: Minister considers compensation for Bitcoin ATM ban

* Sam Sachdeva for Newsroom: NZ to block corporate lawsuit rights in Asia trade deal

* Tim Murphy for Newsroom: RNZ reviving a national news wire as it aims to be journalism’s cornerstone

* Kate Macintosh for The Post-$: 2300 Ministry of Education learning support staff to strike. Intervention teachers, psychologists and child safety staff will be among those walking off the job over a pay and conditions offer they say is “miserly” and does not address their concerns.

* RNZ: Auckland not keeping up with international standards in key areas - report

Politics & geopolitics

* RNZ: 'Won't be able to keep bailing out': Luxon on future floods

* Scoop by Eloise Gibson for RNZ: Space Minister Judith Collins goes to ground over NZ's first space mission

* RNZ: Aussie police recruiters say they're just making sure Kiwis know their options

* RNZ: Tāmaki Makaurau by-election to be held in September

* Lyric Waiwiri-Smith for The Spinoff: 30 things I learned from 30 hours of Regulatory Standards Bill hearings. Even our politicians forget to turn the mute button off/on. It’s not just you.

* RNZ: Ray Chung's 'vile' email condemned across the political spectrum

Economy, business & tech

* Rob Stock for The Post-$: People oppose law change to protect ANZ and ASB: Poll. The majority oppose the Government’s retrospective law change to limit compensation the banks would pay in a court case, claims a poll by Curia.

* David Hargreaves for Interest: 'Timeline for NZ's recovery just keeps getting pushed further out'

* Dita de Boni for The Post-$: Golden visa money may outpace the investment options in NZ

* Nichole Lewis for Stuff: Should KiwiSaver be opened to investment property?

Column by Brian Easton for Interest: Is progress progressive?

* Greg Ninness for Interest: National median rent declines after almost 18 months of stagnation

Housing, transport, infrastructure & councils

* Oliver Lewis for BusinessDesk-$: NZ lags behind Australia on freight strategy

* Robin Martin for RNZ: 'Totally unfair': New Plymouth residents on proposed water charge changes

* Connor Sharp for GreaterAuckland’s substack: Project K is gonna be OK. It's Groundhog Day, but in a good way: the recommended plans for the area around the Mercury Lane CRL station are almost entirely a return to the original goals of the project: to create people-friendly spaces and reduce or indeed remove rat-running through the area.

* Shilpy Arora Gaikwad for Stuff: Lost income, missed meetings, late pickups: The toll of this ‘endless’ waterworks project

* Op-Ed by Vic Uni’s Dr Emina Kristina Petrović for Newsroom: Should the building industry keep using this controversial material?

* Justin Wong for The Post-$: Wellington councils deliver election-year warning on costs and rates. Hutt Valley, Porirua and Kāpiti councils give notice before the election that rising costs, ageing infrastructure and years of underinvestment mean tough choices lie ahead.

Health

* Louisa Steyl for Southland Times-$: Resident doctor fears health staff will ‘pour out to Australia’. Space constraints in Southland Hospital’s emergency department are forcing staff to take “borderline dangerous” measures to keep patients flowing, a doctor says.

* Thomas Coughlan for NZ Herald: Health NZ hires thousands more nurses and hundreds more doctors – is it enough?

* RNZ: Hospice cuts patient numbers: 'We are so desperately sorry for the unavoidable suffering'

* RNZ: Care home residents subjected to violence, intimidatory acts

* 3News via Stuff: Watch: NZ's drinking guidelines underestimate health risks, alcohol expert says

* Op-Ed by Curtin Uni’s Nicole Lee and Sydney Uni’s Katinka van de Ven for The Conversation: Even a day off alcohol makes a difference – our timeline maps the health benefits when you stop drinking

Poverty, living costs, work, education & crime

* Tuwhenuaroa Natanahira for RNZ: Probe into police use of 'alternative action' for youth offenders

* Russell Palmer for RNZ: A 'disaster for regional New Zealand' - union slams disestablishment of Te Pūkenga

* Deep-dive by Amelia Wade for The Post-$: Is 50 the new 60? Older workers battle algorithms to get CVs seen

* NZ Herald: HelloFresh pleads guilty after ‘subscription traps’ tricked customers

* Stuff: Former tax agent sentenced for $95k Covid loan fraud

* Editorial for ODT-$: Home and away as Australia beckons

Climate, water, land, air and environment

* Catherine Hubbard for The Press-$: Motueka orchardist begs for immediate action from politicians

* Nina Hindmarsh for the Nelson Mail-$: Biblical flooding leaves Dovedale cut off

* Brett Kerr Laurie for The Press-$: The cleanup after the worst flood in living memory'

* Op-Ed by Mike Joy, Marnie Prickett, Marie Doole and Simon Hales for Public Health Communication Centre: Government cannot achieve “enduring freshwater policy” by siding with narrow commercial interests

* Delphine Herbert for RNZ: The harrowing moment a Moteuka farmer's wife got swept away in floodwaters

* Op-Ed by Copenhagen Uni’s Klaus Bruhn Jensen and Semahat Ece Elbeyi Can you trust climate information? How and why powerful players are misleading the public

Good news & solutions

* Eloise Gibson for RNZ: More city cyclists get on their bikes - but there is untapped demand for more

* Rob Stock for The Post-$: Flood-resistant Auckland stilt houses win architecture prize. Hundreds of homes were red-stickered after the 2023 Auckland flooding - now four students have come up with a winning idea for housing that will survive a deluge.

* NZ Herald: The Kiwibank chair who is also a priest: ‘There’s more to life than the corporate world’

* Northern Advocate: The Good Drop: Warehouse, Salvation Army team up for textile recycling

* Susan Edmunds for RNZ: A radical tax plan to avoid an economic 'car crash'

* RNZ: Electrick Kiwi seeks solar deals'

Docs of the day

* BusinessNZ-BNZ: Survey of Services sector in June

* Stats NZ: Electronic card transactions: June 2025

* Committee for Auckland’s State of the City report for 2025 published this morning.

Cartoon: ‘Who, me?’

Timeline cleansing nature pic

Ka kite ano

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Briefly for all subscribers for at 6am on Monday, July 14, the key scoops, breaking news, deep-dives, editorials, analysis and other news links in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate today are:

* Another slash catastrophe unfolded over the weekend in the Nelson/Marlborough/Tasman region as the second ‘one-in-one-hundred-year’ flash flood in two weeks unleashed a torrent of pine forest waste, forming dams and wiping out homes and a campground. See more below in my Top Six ‘Pick ‘n’ Mix’.

* However, yet again, none of the storm coverage by RNZ, NZ Herald, 1News, The Nelson Mail-$ or the The Press-$ mentioned climate change. One Stuff article purporting to explain the floods also didn’t mention climate change. The blame is now focused, again, on the pine forest industry, which avoided major changes after inquiries into the Cyclone Gabrielle storm. See more below in my Climate Pick ‘n’ Mix. I spoke with Jesse Mulligan on RNZ Afternoons about this on Monday. It was broadcast on Tuesday.

* Large and small electricity consumers have launched a new campaign for electricity market reform. See more below in my Top Six ‘Pick ‘n’ Mix.

* The Government is awarding new work rights to try to bring in an extra 30,000 students a year. Meanwhile, an editorial in the NZ Herald and a column by the editor of the Sunday Star Times-$ argue against using cheap temporary workers to juice economic growth and disguise a hollowing out of Aotearoa-NZ. See more below in my Top Six and Politics Pick ‘n’ Mixes.

* Donald Trump is threatening 30% tariffs on the European Union and Mexico to start from August 1. See more in Scoops and breaking news this morning below.

* Today’s must-watch is an interview with two doctors on 1News’ Q+A with Jack Tame about the risks of privatisation of our health system.

Paying subscribers see more detail, analysis and commentary below the paywall and in the podcast above, along with my full Picks ‘n’ Mixes for this morning. I’ll open it up for all to read, listen and share if paying subscribers give it more than 100 likes.

My Top Six Pick ’n’ Mix for Monday, July 14

* Jack Tame for 1News’ Q+A: Electricity market concerns outlined in new campaign. The coalition of groups says the current system is failing to provide sufficient electricity generation.

* Jack Tame for 1News’ Q&A: Doctors warn private health moves risk a US-style systemFounders of the Canterbury Charity Hospital, Dame Sue Bagshaw and Dr Phil Bagshaw, are opposed to moves to shift more operations to private providers.

* Mary Argue for RNZ: 'Flash-flood' devastates small community in Motueka Valley

* Jenee Tibshraeny for NZ Herald-$: Willis wanted tighter Budget access. Finance Minister’s secretive lockup plan sparked controversy.

* Editorial by NZ Herald-$: Using immigration as a primary tool to drive economic growth is risky business

* Reuters: Trump intensifies trade war with threat of 30% tariffs on EU, Mexico

The best of the rest

Scoops and breaking news here and overseas this morning

* Nina Hindmarsh for Nelson Mail-$: Water had no where to go. Pigeon Valley resident says flooding was worsened by uncleared debris from previous events.

* Stuff: Tasman mayor says weather ‘the most devastating’ he’s seen

* NZ Herald: Govt wants to increase international students by over 30,000 by 2034

* Thomas Manch for Stuff: Boost to work rights for international students to drive $7b sector

* Stuff: Queenstown housing crisis worsens, waitlist grows by 41% in two years

* AP: The EU is delaying retaliatory tariffs on US goods in hopes of reaching a deal by Aug. 1

Politics & geopolitics

* Column by Tracy Watkins for Sunday Star Times-$: The hollowing out of New Zealand. Mass migration has allowed successive governments to fool themselves and us into thinking the exodus to Australia isn’t a crisis

* Stuff: Seymour wants a fast-track for new supermarket companies

* RNZ: Peeni Henare to contest Tāmaki Makaurau by-election for Labour

* NZ Herald-$: ‘Affront to NZ’s sovereignty’: David Seymour v the United Nations

* Sue Wood interviewed by Joanna Wane for NZ Herald-$: 'You weren’t sure who you could trust’: Sue Wood's time in ‘snake pit' National Party

* Column by Vernon Small for Sunday Star Times-$: Is the Government just paying lip service to cost of living concerns? It’s taken credit for interest rate cuts, but the real public relations test for the Government will be in the actions it takes to curb supermarket prices and ensure cheap and reliable energy supply.

Business, economy & tech

* 1News’ Q+A: Kiwi founder of Marketplace says Facebook is a 'complex mirror'Kiwi Bowen Pan, who spearheaded the development of Facebook Marketplace, tells Q+A "it's hard to say" if the social media platform represents a net good in the world.

* Column by Martin Sandbu for FT-$ (gift link that opens 3 times): The frightening world without the dollar

* NZ Herald: 99% of people couldn't afford this: Massive South Island stations aim for $140m

* Column by Rod Carr for Sunday Star Times-$: Artificial intelligence is not wise. The new technology falls short in understanding unintended consequences, mutations, and randomness - and is not, therefore, “wise”.

* Op-Ed by One NZ Chief Enterprise Officer Mike Purchase for Sunday Star Times-$: When it comes to digitising NZ, we’re missing a bold strategy. Right now, too many of our government services still feel disjointed, overly manual, or just plain outdated. Try applying for multiple business licences in one go, and it’s like stepping back in time.

* Tom Pullar Strecker for The Post-$: Manufacturers still struggling despite hopes for recover

Housing

* Hamish McNeilly for Stuff: Battle of the bond: Inside the Tenancy Tribunal with a notorious landlord

* Anne Gibson for NZ Herald-$: Auckland retiree faces eviction as ground rent jumps 344%

* Caroline Williams for Stuff: What Rotorua is doing to get kids out of emergency housing motels

* OneRoof: Out-of-town buyers hot for deceased estate with $235,000 price tag

* NZ Herald: Deadly volcanic eruption clouds could travel 15km across Auckland - research

* Miriam Bell for Sunday Star Times-$: The cost of building a house is high, but it will never get betterBuilding costs in NZ are 50% higher than in Australia and they’re still climbing. But this might be as good as it gets for hopeful homebuilders

Transport, infrastructure & councils

* Stewart Sowman-Lund for Sunday Star Times-$: More residents front up with concerns over fast-tracked Ellerslie development. Some fear Auckland Council is turning a blind eye, after an email emerged questioning whether they could be making complaints ‘just for the sake of it’.

* Libby Kirkby-McLeod for RNZ: No timetable, no set stops could be working for Tauranga public transport

* Amelia Wade for Sunday Star Times-$: Conefusion: Are there too many road cones? We still don’t know. The prime minister said road cones were “clogging up the joint” but one month after the launch of a hotline, there’s been very few genuine complaints. And no one knows how much it’s costing.

* Tom Hunt for The Post-$: Wellington Water reveals $2.7m traffic bill and $1.4m corporate fee on single project. Wellington Water has finally released some of the numbers behind its multimillion-dollar Taranaki St project — and they include $4m for traffic control and the utility’s fee.

* Deep-dive by Jonathan Killick for Sunday Star Times-$: ‘Democracy in crisis’: Council reps complain of bureaucracy’s ‘quiet agenda’In an unusual twist, Auckland Council may end up using ratepayer funds to legally challenge itself.

* Op-Ed by Sarah Sparks for Sunday Star Times-$: Māori ward referendums: Will voters support a more inclusive democracy? Our nation’s commitment to Māori representation is back on the line, and we’ll soon see how committed Aotearoa really is to genuine partnership.

Poverty, living costs, work, education & crime

* Deep-dive by Elsie Williams for The Post-$: Young and shut out: Gen Z face the harshest job market in years. CVs handed out in person. Hundreds of online applications. Training that comes to nothing. Young people are bearing the brunt of New Zealand’s downturn “by a country mile”, and face one of the most challenging labour markets in memory.

* Op-Ed by Madison Burgess-Smith for The Post-$: Young and living in NZ? It’s probably better than you thinkOPINION: New Zealand might just be one of the best places in the world to be young, broke-ish, and building a life.

* Deep-dive by Stewart Sowman-Lund for Sunday Star Times-$: Work, Interrupted: The kids, the mortgage, but no job. What next?What’s it like to be a mid-career professional looking for work? For Rory O’Sullivan, it means grappling with potentially having to sell the house.

* Stuff: 'We have a life here': Couple whose baby was born at 27 weeks fighting to stay in NZ

* NZ Herald: Company that lends flexible line of credit for divorce proceedings launches in NZ

Climate, water, land, air and environment

* Column for Andrea Vance for Sunday Star Times-$: The new politics of climate adaptation. Who gets saved? While some are still picking up the pieces after major weather events, others are fighting to protect their views.

* RNZ: 'Hopefully we can lend a hand' - more Kiwi fire-fighters head to Canada

* AP: US has reclosed its southern border after a flesh-eating parasite is seen further north in Mexico

* AP: Death threats over Texas flooding cartoon force museum journalism event to be postponed

* 1News: Key Nelson route remains shut as flood clean-up continuesNelson Tasman region remains under a state of emergency after up to 200mm of rain fell in some areas over Friday night into Saturday morning.

* Mary Argue for RNZ: Elderly couple rescued in digger bucket, as 'wall of water' hits Tasman holiday park

Good news & solutions

* Op-Ed by Chloe Swarbrick for NZ Herald: Why NZ should consider a wealth tax on the ultra-rich

* Column by Audrey Young for NZ Herald-$: What if the PM fell under a bus? Nicola Willis and Chris Bishop would lead the running if the Government suddenly needed a new leader.

* 1News: Lithium battery fires being lit to tackle rubbish truck blazesFourteen fires have been reported inside trucks this year, matching the total for all of last year.

* NZ Herald: ‘Life-changing’: Wellington man back on weight loss drug after Medsafe approval

* NZ Herald: Insulation rule changes could cut $15k from new build costs

* Mary Argue for RNZ: Elderly couple rescued in digger bucket, as 'wall of water' hits Tasman holiday park

Cartoon: Sargent Schulz

Timeline cleansing nature pic

Ka kite ano

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking with regular guest Cathrine Dyer about the week’s news in geopolitics and climate, along with special guests Professor Jonathan Boston from Victoria University of Wellington and Professor Wolfgang Rack from University of Canterbury.

This week’s Hoon featured:

* a discussion about research showing rising Southern Oceans surface salinity and declining sea ice with climate scientist and Antarctic ice specialist Wolfgang Rack. Cathrine mentioned this Katharine Hayhoe post on LinkedIn about conspiracy theories that cloud-seeding caused this week’s Texas floods.

* a discussion about an independent experts’ report this week on climate adaptation with Jonathan Boston, who has also written a comment piece on it over at Newsroom.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in this year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free. Also, here’s a couple of special offers: $3/month or $30/year for under 30s & $6.50/month or $65/year for over 65s who rent.)

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Briefly in the news from Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate on Tuesday, July 8:

* On the eve of an expected pause in rate cuts, the Reserve Bank’s new ‘NowCast’ real-time measure of economic activity shows GDP has fallen back into recessionary territory in the last three months. See more in The Lead and Chart of the Day below the paywall fold, and hear more in the podcast above.

* PM Christopher Luxon and Finance Minister Nicola Willis said through the first six months of the year their Government and Budget 2025 was focused on ‘growth, growth, growth’, but the Crown Accounts for the 11 months to the end of May actually show the Government invested $6.4 billion less than last year and $3.6 billion less than forecast. See more in The Sidebar.

* A South Island school’s survey students finds 78% didn’t want the new school lunch programme. See Number of the Day below.

* Ministry officials tried desperately at the last minute to stop David Seymour’s lunch programme from going ahead because of Libelle/Compass’ poor record with past contracts. See more in my Picks & Mixes and Quote of the Day.

* Today’s Must-Read is from Auckland Uni’s Tim Welch: NZ will soon have no real interisland rail-ferry link – why are we so bad at infrastructure planning? See more in my Picks ‘n’ Mixes below.

* Today’s Good News story is news from Auckland Council, which has decided to turn a golf course into a wetland. Stuff, RNZ See more in my Picks & Mixes below.

There’s more detail and analysis for paying subscribers below the fold and in the podcast above. If we get over 100 likes I will open it up in full for public reading, listening and sharing.

The Lead: Economy sliding back into winter of recession

The Reserve Bank is widely expected to hold its cash rate at 3.25% tomorrow, despite most economists and the Government itself wanting the bank to cut again, and despite clear signs from leading indicators that the economy is sliding back into recessionary territory in a third consecutive winter of economic discontent.

The decision comes as even the Reserve Bank’s own new ‘NowCast’ indicator updated on Friday (see chart below) shows the economy contracted in the June quarter. Business surveys released in the last month from BusinessNZ, ANZ and NZIER all show businesses reporting activity fell in the June quarter, while consumer spending surveys also show an extension of a retail recession that has dragged on for more than three years.

So why hasn’t the economy continued on with the rebound seen in the March quarter? The Government portrayed the 0.8% rise in Q1 as the beginning of a recovery it has talked up since the start of the year. First, PM Christopher Luxon described 2025 as a year of ‘growth, growth, growth’ when he gave his State of the Nation address in January, and then Finance Minister Nicola Willis released her ‘no BS’ Budget for growth in May.

The problem is since then the Government itself has kept restricting construction investment in housing, hospitals and roads, as well pressing down on growth in operational spending.

The assumption was the housing market and business investment would step up to replace the Government as its sinking lid on spending growth pushed the size of Government down from over 34% of GDP to closer to 30% of GDP over the next couple of years. The trouble is that isn’t happening because households continue to experience cost of living stresses, driven partly by the Government-administered increases in electricity, rates and other prices, and continued job losses and wage repression. Reserve Bank lending restrictions are also stopping rental property investors from borrowing more to kick-start the housing market. Buyers and sellers are also in a stand-off over valuations, given banks are not forcing most sales.

Businesses are also reluctant to spend, given a lack of demand from consumers. The most positive part of the economy is agricultural exports rising to record highs, but farmers are choosing to repay debt, rather than invest it or spend it.

The Sidebar: Cashflow isn’t obeying ‘growth, growth, growth’

The Government’s own ‘Crown Accounts’ for the 11 months to the end of May show the Government has been tightening its investment and operational spending because its core aim is deficit reduction and reducing borrowing.

Page 10 shows the cashflows through the Governments accounts in the 11 months to the end of May for investing and operational activities was $3 billion less than forecast and $6.4 billion less than the same 11 months a year ago. That was largely due to investing cashflows being $3.6 billion less than expected.

Quote of the day: ‘We didn’t want it’

“It does raise serious questions about the reasons and decisions made behind the scenes to award this contract, which is further reinforced by Mr Seymour and the ministry not wishing to share this information publicly until forced to.” Murchison Area School principal Andy Ashworth quoted by Cate MacIntosh for The Press-$ this morning on the release of advice from the Ministry of Education recommending against the selection of Libelle and Compass to deliver school meals.

Number of the day: 78% say no

78% don’t want it - A recent survey of Murchison Area students and whānau, seen by The Press-$, found 78% did not want to continue with the school lunch scheme because they did not enjoy the food. Cate MacIntosh for The Press-$

Chart of the day: Sliding into recession in winter

Top Six Pick ’n’ Mix for Tuesday, July 8

* Scoop by Rafaella Melo for Hawkes Bay Today-$ (gift link): '100% a crisis': More than 900 women wait for specialist gynaecology care in Hawke’s Bay

* Craig Renney on his Substack: FamilyBoost for some more than others. The FamilyBoost changes outlined by the government will disproportionately benefit the better off

* Op-Ed by Chief Childrens Commissioner Dr Claire Ahmad for Newsroom: Our child protection system is sounding the alarm, but are we listening?

* Jonathan Milne for Newsroom: The roundabout where central and local govt relations broke down

* NY Times-$ (gift) As the World Warms, Extreme Rain Is Becoming Even More Extreme. Even in places, like Central Texas, with a long history of floods, human-caused warming is creating the conditions for more frequent and severe deluges.

* Op-Ed by Massey Uni’s Glenn Banks for The Conversation: The hard questions NZ must ask about the claimed economic benefits of fast-track mining projects

The best of the rest

Scoops & news breaking here and overseas this morning

* Cate Macintosh for The Press-$: ‘Serious concerns’: Officials urged school lunch firms be dumped before $170m deal. Ministry of Education officials made a last minute bid to stop the School Lunch Collective from being awarded the two-year contract, newly released documents reveal.

* Scoop by Andrew Bevin for Newsroom Pro-$ (free from tomorrow): Study finds NZ’s largest orange roughy fishery facing collapse

* Scoop by Cecile Meier for BusinessDesk-$: Spin, then bin: Ministry, Compass scrub school lunch ‘greenwashing’ claims

* Finn Blackwell for RNZ: 200 work visas linked to companies connected to Vietnamese crime rings

* Mary Argue & Bill Hickman for RNZ: 'You cannot do this': Staff beg Health NZ not to cut Wellington maternity beds

* AP: Trump announces 25% tariffs on goods from Japan and South Korea beginning Aug. 1

Politics, business, economy & geopolitics

* Jamie Ensor for NZ Herald-$: Seymour reckons banks are 'fairly taxed', expects Willis' work will find same

* Todd Niall for Newsroom: Mayor Brown frugal on the video and frugal with some facts

* RNZ: Health NZ board re-established by government

* RNZ: FamilyBoost payments increased, income limit raised

* RNZ: 'We still haven't come out' - businesses tell Covid inquiry

* RNZ: Former broadcaster Oriini Kaipara puts name forward for by-election

Housing, transport, infrastructure & councils

* Michael Wright for The Press-$: Greystones development scuppered by ‘incredibly hard’ consent process. Developer Brooksfield has mothballed the Christchurch housing project and refunded buyers after consenting dragged on for two years.

* OneRoof: 'Expectation gap' dividing buyers and sellers in South Island's biggest city

* RNZ: Kiwi company launches power saving panel

* Marty Sharpe for Stuff in Hastings: Large new $100m hospital to see 6000 more surgeries a year. The project was the vision of a group of local clinicians who felt the existing hospital was struggling with capacity

* Libby Kirkby-McLeod for RNZ: Parking problems in The Mount: 'Nothing is off limits'

* WSJ-$ (gift link): First-Time Home Buyers Are MIA. Landlords Are the Winners.

Poverty, health, education & crime

* RNZ: Covid-19 Inquiry: Business leader says future vaccine mandates won't work

* Op-Ed by Auckland Uni’s Peter Adams for Newsroom: Alcohol lobbying is a wild west of influence

* Sam Smith for Stuff: Why have your electricity bills gone up?. Are you paying more for your electricity? If so, you are not alone, as widespread price increases hit consumers hard.

* Stuff: Mental health workers say assaults increasing as police ‘withdraw’. The union representing mental health workers says they’re put in danger as the Government looks to change how police respond to mental health call-outs.

* 1News: Julia Pearl Buaquina De Los Santos used the names and credentials of three Filipino civil engineers on five work visa applications.

* 1News: Migrant exploitation: Second Samoan national sentenced

Climate and environment

* RNZ: Government was told it would have to quit fossil fuel group if new exploration started

* Op-Ed by Sydney Uni’s Omid Ghasemi for The Conversation: Experiencing extreme weather and disasters is not enough to change views on climate action, study shows

* Tasmania Uni’s Elizabeth Leane & Umeā’s Uni’s Keith Larson for The Conversation: Antarctic research is in decline, and the timing couldn’t be worse

* Moana Ellis for LDR via Stuff: Fishing club leader fears one of NZ’s most important fisheries could be wiped out. “I never, ever thought it would get to this point,” Jamie Newell says of a planned seabed mining project.

* 1News: 'Devastating' - digging deep to clean up Motueka flood damage. Civil Defence has called it the worst flood in nearly 150 years, and the Nelson Tasman region remains in a state of emergency.

* Chelsea Daniels for NZ Herald: Why NZ towns may need to move as severe weather worsens

Good news

* Joseph L’ose for NZ Herald: 'Long-term strategy': How iwi are outpacing major NZ companies

* Malaghan Institute’s Tama Te Puea Braithwaite Westoby: A Māori worldview describes the immune system as a guardian – this could improve public health in Aotearoa NZ

* RNZ: Alternative education rule change would change lives - providers

* RNZ: Thefts fail to wilt trust-based veggie project

* RNZ: South Auckland grocery store loses right to sell alcohol

* 1News: Kiwi company brings sand manufacturing technology to AustraliaSand is a vital component of concrete - but dredging for it near beaches has long been opposed by environmental groups.

Cartoon of the day: Outraged and inconvenienced

Timeline cleansing nature pic

Ka kite ano

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Briefly in the news from Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate on Monday, July 7:

* Finance Minister Nicola Willis is considering changing the tax settings for banks in Budget 2026, possibly including an Australian-style ‘Major Bank Levy,’ the NZ Herald-$ reports this morning. See more in The Lead below the paywall fold and hear more in the podcast above.

* Women in the lower North Island will have to travel to Christchurch for ovarian and cervical cancer surgeries for the next four to five years because Wellington’s now-retired sole gynaecological oncologist has not been replaced, The Press-$ reports this morning. See more in The Sidebar.

* Meanwhile, RNZ reports this morning Wellington Hospital is cutting 12 beds from its gynaecology and maternity wards to make more room for its over-crowded Emergency Department. See Number of the Day below.

* A paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal by European and US climate scientists has found a major reversal in ocean circulation in the Southern Ocean, which the study’s co-author said “could have unprecedented global climate impacts.” See more in Doc of the Day.

* Today’s Must-Watch is a report by The Hui on homelessness via YouTube. See more in my Picks ‘n’ Mixes below.

* Today’s Good News story is about Whakatāne 15-year-old Jack Karetai-Barrett, who is pedalling his way to Parliament from Whakatāne in support of Māori wards, LDR/Stuff. See more in my Picks & Mixes below.

There’s more detail and analysis for paying subscribers below the fold and in the podcast above. If we get over 100 likes I will open it up in full for public reading, listening and sharing.

The Lead: Willis considering extra tax levy on banks

Jamie Ensor has the scoop this morning via NZ Herald-$ (gift link) on how Finance Minister Nicola Willis is considering changing the tax settings on banks in Budget 2026, possibly including an Australian-style ‘Major Bank Levy’, which a then-conservative Government introduced to increase receipts from banks.

Following questions from the Herald, the Finance Minister said that as part of its work to address the cost of living, the Government “is taking action to ensure that New Zealanders are getting a fair deal from banking services”.

“Our work to enhance banking competition is wide-ranging and as part of this, I have sought advice on whether the major banks are paying their fair share of tax,” Willis said.

“I’ve been interested in how New Zealand’s bank tax regime compares with Australia and elsewhere, particularly in light of the significant profits Australian banks make from Kiwi customers.

“Tax policy is highly technical, so I can confirm that Inland Revenue is giving consideration to a wide range of options.” Nicola Willis via Jamie Ensor for NZ Herald-$ (gift link): Finance Minister eyeing tax settings ahead of potential election-year changes

The Sidebar: Women in lower North Island lose cancer, maternity beds

Meanwhile, budget pressure applied on the health system by the Government is increasingly intense, as seen at Wellington Hospital, which has just lost its ability to operate on cervical and ovarian cancers for four to five years because Wellington’s sole gynaecological surgeon has retired and has not been replaced.

Anna Whyte reports for The Post-$ this morning that lower North Island women must travel for complex gynaecological cancer care to Christchurch or Auckland because Wellington’s sole gynaecological oncologist had retired and had not been replaced.

Capital Coast and Hutt Valley chief medical officer Andre Cromhout confirmed gynaecological oncology surgery for the next four to five years would be performed “mainly in Christchurch and Auckland”.

“Some gynaecological cancer surgery will continue to be delivered in Wellington when a Christchurch-based gynaecological oncologist visits the region monthly. Other services in the treatment pathway for women, such as medical and radiation oncology and specialist nursing support for gynaecological oncology patients will also continue.”

Cromhout said while logistical and financial support was available, it would be a “significant inconvenience to many women and their families who are already distressed”.

Cancer Society medical director Dr Kate Gregory said it would affect women with ovarian cancer and also some complex cervical and endometrial cancer surgery. Patients would often be in hospital recovery 10 days after these surgeries, she said.

“It's well established that patients who need these complex surgeries do much better if they're treated by specialist surgeons in centres set up for it. Wellington was one of those centres in NZ.” Kate Gregory via Anna Whyte for The Post-$

Number of the day: Bed reshuffle

12 beds - Ruth Hill reports for RNZ this morning that Wellington Hospital is cutting beds from its gynaecology and maternity wards in a trial aimed at making more room for patients from the overcrowded Emergency Department, according to a leaked memo.

In an email to staff late last week, the operations manager of the Women's Health Service said starting next month, there would be a four-month "trial re-allocation" of beds to take medical patients.

“You may be aware of our hospital's over-demand for medical inpatient beds which means some people have to wait for long periods in the Emergency Department. This results in their care being impacted, as well as ED becoming overcrowded, less efficient and effective.”

The manager explained the plan is to reduce the four Women's Health wards - known as pods - into three, with just two dedicated for maternity. The gynaecology ward would become a medical ward, and gynaecology patients would move into one of the maternity pods, where they would be obliged to share with any "overflow" maternity patients.

"Re-allocating beds in this way will allow for 12 additional medical beds in the hospital relieving pressure on ED and provide timely care for sick, vulnerable people.” Email to staff quoted by Ruth Hill reports for RNZ

Doc of the day: SMOC reversal

A paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal by European and US climate scientists titled: “Rising surface salinity and declining sea ice: A new Southern Ocean state revealed by satellites.” has found a major reversal in ocean circulation detected in the Southern Ocean.

The study’s main finding is both surprising and alarming: since 2016, a sustained increase in surface salinity has been detected in the region between the polar and subpolar gyres of the Antarctic Ocean. This change in water composition suggests that the deep ocean circulation in the Southern Hemisphere—known as the SMOC—is not only being altered, but has reversed. That is, instead of sinking into the depths, surface water is being replaced by deep water masses rising to the surface, bringing with them heat and carbon dioxide (CO₂) that had been trapped for centuries.

“We are witnessing a true reversal of ocean circulation in the Southern Hemisphere—something we’ve never seen before,” explains Antonio Turiel, ICM-CSIC researcher and co-author of the study.

“While the world is debating the potential collapse of the AMOC in the North Atlantic, we’re seeing that the SMOC is not just weakening, but has reversed. This could have unprecedented global climate impacts.” Turiel said via this ICM (Institut de Ciències del Mar) article: Major reversal in ocean circulation detected in the Southern Ocean

Top Six Pick ’n’ Mix for Monday, July 7

* Scoop by Jamie Ensor for NZ Herald-$ (gift link)Finance Minister eyeing tax settings ahead of potential election-year changes

* Scoop by Anna Whyte for The Post-$: Lower North Island women must travel for complex gynaecological cancer care.

* Ruth Hill RNZ: Wellington Hospital cuts maternity and gynaecology beds for ED

* Interview with new Climate Commissioner by Tom Pullar-Strecker for The Post-$: Why you’ll be hearing less from the new climate change commissioner. Her predecessor was hands-on and outspoken ‒ notably accusing fossil fuel promoters of a crime against humanity ‒ but Dame Patsy Reddy, who says she is “not a scientist and I don’t plan to be”, is taking more of a back seat.

* Scoop by Avina Vidyadharan for The Waikato Times-$: Most minor crimes won’t be investigated, police advocate says. After the Waikato Times revealed a scammed elderly couple’s case was filed away without follow-up, the Police Association boss says it’s not unusual.

* Deep-dive by Eloise Gibson for RNZ: Nobody's buying carbon anymore - and it's costing the government millions

The best of the rest

Scoops & news breaking here and overseas this morning

* Scoop by Steve Kilgallon for Stuff: ‘Shattered dreams’: The unlicensed immigration advisor who abused the system. Julie De Los Santos forged work histories for Filipino cyclone-recovery workers – now she’s serving a sentence of home detention and will likely be deported.

* 1News: Warnings of dramatic increase in 'hidden homeless' - advocate. New Zealand is facing an explosion in numbers of "hidden homeless" people who aren't visible to social services, and it was spreading beyond areas where rough sleepers have previously lived.

* RNZ: Insurance companies urge use of Takapuna golf course for flood prevention

* Reuters: Death toll from Texas floods reaches 67, including 21 children

* Reuters: Musk announces forming of 'America Party' in further break from Trump

* Reuters: US close to several trade deals, announcements expected in coming days, Bessent says

Politics, business, economy & geopolitics

* Stuff: Mayor says police minister ‘well informed’ in saying 'sleeping rough is a lifestyle choice here’. Tania Tapsell said there was many years of mental health and addiction issues, and hardship at play.

* Chelsea Daniels for NZ Herald: What can the Government do to change voters' minds on the cost of living?

* RNZ: Most student nurses will look overseas if no jobs in NZ - survey

* Michael Daly for Stuff: Tens of thousands are leaving NZ for good - how big a problem is it?. While losing so many people overseas may not matter so much now, “all we can do is hope they come back when things pick up economically”.

* Stuff: Wage gap remains despite more early childhood centres adopting full pay parity, group says. New figures highlight that “pay parity” is a misnomer, the Office for Early Childhood Education says.

* 1News: How Māori living in Australia stay connected to ‘home’. When ‘home’ is away from home, what does it take to stay connected?

Housing, transport, infrastructure & councils

* 1News: 'Incredibly sad' housing situation for working homeless in Christchurch. Some employed people are making an active decision to skip renting to save money by living on the street.

* 1News: Assault of migrant worker in Auckland sparks protest.

* RNZ: More rough sleepers on Auckland streets: 'NZ doesn't have to be this way'

* RNZ: Fresh push for four-lane highway from Rolleston to Ashburton

* Stuff: Marlborough is zoned for growth, says mayor in face of RMA reforms.

Poverty, health, education & crime

* RNZ: Security regulator warns against hospital security guards doubling as cleaners

* RNZ: Many children suffering ongoing Covid symptoms

* RNZ: New CT scanners bring mixed blessings for Palmerston North Hospital

* RNZ: Nurses union dismisses latest pay offer as 'massive backward step'

* Stuff: ‘Domino effect’ of mill closures leaves town in fight for survival. While some have left, including off to Australia, those who stayed are doing “what we’ve got to do to get by”.

* Stuff: MSD apologises to paralysed man left waiting years for a state home.

Climate and environment

* RNZ: Hundreds of homes assessed following Nelson Tasman flooding

* RNZ: Green housing advocates celebrate no roll back of insulation standards

* RNZ: Civil defence meeting held after biggest flood in Ngātīmoti since 1877

* RNZ: Worst in almost 150 years: Nelson Tasman counts cost of historic floods

* RNZ: 'Really devastating' - digging deep to clean up Motueka flood damage

* FT-$ (gift link opens three times) The natural gas trap

Good news

* RNZ: Hospice Heroes: the touching new show on end-of-life care

* Stuff: Teen says ‘we’ll show Christopher Luxon who’s boss’ with epic ride for Māori representation

* NZ Herald: Region's first learning hub for migrant parents a 'transformative step'

* The Post-$: How I bought land and built a brand new home with $61,000

Cartoon of the day: The wrecking ball is in charge

Timeline cleansing nature pic:

Ka kite ano

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Briefly in the news from Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate on Friday, July 4:

* Police Minister Mark Mitchell says people who sleep rough in Rotorua are making ‘a lifestyle choice’ and should be moved away from shopfronts by five new beat cops — ‘for their own safety’. See more in The Lead below the paywall fold and in the podcast above.

* A Salvation Army expert on homelessness, who has been to Rotorua to investigate, says there aren’t enough homes and these people, who deserve dignity and Mark Mitchell’s empathy, are not ‘choosing homelessness’. See more in The Sidebar.

* A Queenstown landlord has been fined $113,723.56 for illegally housing 22 migrant workers in a five bedroom home, two garages and a shed, where the power-overloaded smoke alarms didn’t work. Number of the day below.

* A group of academics, economists and a former PM have published an open letter calling for a halt to the Regulatory Standards Bill. See more in Docs of the Day.

* Today’s Must-Read is Max Rashbrooke’s column for The Spinoff: David Seymour’s hypocrisy over drugs and poverty. See more in Picks ‘n’ Mixes below.

* Today’s Good News story is courtesy of the Auckland City Mission, which has just opened a new dental clinic in Auckland. RNZ video via Youtube See more in Good news below.

There’s more detail and analysis for paying subscribers below the fold and in the podcast above. If we get over 100 likes I will open it up in full for public reading, listening and sharing.

The Lead: 'Sleeping rough is a lifestyle choice here'

Police Minister Mark Mitchell held a news conference in Rotorua yesterday with Mayor Tanya Tapsell to celebrate the appointment of five new ‘beat’ cops, who he made clear were there to move along homeless people sleeping in front of shops. He also staged a photo op walk around Rotorua’s shops for TV cameras to show the new absence of homeless people on the streets.

He said police would work with government agencies to find solutions to get rough sleepers off the streets as they were a risk to others and themselves. He then said this:

“I can’t comment for every rough sleeper, but from my own experience many of the rough sleepers have got somewhere to go. It’s more a lifestyle choice for them.” Mark Mitchell in a video via this article by Annabel Reid for NZ Herald.

The Sidebar: ‘There is no choice. There aren’t enough homes.’

For more information on the situation on the ground in Rotorua, here’s Ana Ika from the Salvation Army's Social Policy and Parliamentary Unit talking to Radio Rhema’s Andrew Urquhart yesterday:

“When the government came in, they decreased the number of emergency housing places for families. It's a lot more difficult for those that are seeking emergency housing to get into that housing. So you might see in the media that there's a celebration in regards to the decline in emergency housing placements.

“But the reality is the government doesn't know where about a fifth of those emergency housing clients have gone. For us on the front line, we're seeing an increase in homelessness across the country.

“For Rotorua in particular, lot of the homeless population stay just outside our Amohia Street building. I was just there a couple of weeks ago and they opened the door to welcome me in to the Salvation Army.

“Because of a lot of these policy changes and the difficulties of trying to get into emergency housing, you know we're seeing a lot of families spill out into the streets, individuals spill out on to the streets, but also families that are living in overcrowded situations and rough sleeping in their cars.

“Homelessness is just a symptom. There are underlying causes there, particularly with these families and individuals that live outside of our center. A lot of times it's often to do with past trauma, with mental health, with addictions and a myriad of other issues where it's difficult to be able to provide housing for these individuals, when you go into transitional housing or emergency housing.

“There are requirements they need to abide by, and oftentimes because of the those underlying complexities that are there, it's difficult for them to maintain that tenancy, whether it's emergency or transitional housing.” The Salvation Army policy analyst Ana Ika talking on Radio Rhema via Youtube.

I suspect Ana Ika is slightly better informed than the Minister.

Number of the day: $113,723.56

$113,723.56 - Queenstown landlord James Truong has been fined $113,723.56 for illegally using his property as a boarding house for 22 tenants. He packed the migrant workers into a five bedroom home, two garages (see pic below) and a shed. 1News

Chart of the day: A three-year retail recession, without end

Top Six Pick ’n’ Mix for Friday, July 4

* Cecile Meier for BusinessDesk-$: Officials urged exclusion of school lunch supplier over billing breaches and safety failings

* Vaimoana Mase for NZ Herald: Shock at sleep rules after baby dies at daycare

* Dan Brunskill for Interest: Labour offers to help Willis set up election costing unit

* Geoffrey Palmer via Newsroom: ‘Passing RSB will exact high political price’

* Garth Bray for BusinessDesk-$:The business born battling Vector contracts

* Max Rashbrooke for The Spinoff: David Seymour’s hypocrisy on drugs & poverty.

Scoops & news breaking here and overseas this morning

* RNZ: Residents breathe sigh of relief as latest storm passes

* RNZ: 'Had its day': Govt urged to prioritise upgrades to emergency phone-line

* Jamie Ensor for NZ Herald-$: Special tax change for fossil fuel firms was proposed

* Reuters: US Senate passes Trump's sweeping tax-cut and spending bill

* Reuters: Solid US job growth masks weakness underneath

* Reuters: Trump says he will put 20% tariff on Vietnam's exports

Politics, business, economy & geopolitics

* Stuff: Stuff closing 15 community newspapers

* Stuff: Luxon denies RNZ’s funding cut was sending it ‘a message’.

* Lyric Waiwiri-Smith for Spinoff: Time’s up on Goldsmith’s promise to save media

* Sam Sachdeva for Newsroom: Inside the Peters-Luxon clash over Trump tariffs

* Jamie Ensor for NZ Herald: Group of prominent Kiwis – including former PM – issue letter against Act bill

* Op-Ed by Tim Hazeldine for The Post-$: What a Green budget tells us about what’s left of the left. It’s hardly an exaggeration to claim that world peace itself is threatened by neglecting the causes of income inequality.

Housing, transport, infrastructure & councils

* Russell Palmer for RNZ: Fears Regulatory Standards Bill could be a barrier for Māori housing

* Stuff: Sir John Kirwan's Auckland surf park project adds 500 homes.

* 1News: Work restarts on new $1.88 billion Dunedin Hospital. The downsized project is due to be completed in 2031.

* NewsTalkZB: Changes coming for insulation standards

* Miriam Bell for The Post-$: Auckland apartment shortage looms as pipeline hits record low. With just 54 apartment projects in the pipeline — down from 183 in 2021 — Auckland is on track for a significant supply shortfall.

* Harriet Laughton for The Post-$: Push to end Wellington’s hertitage ‘nightmare’.

Poverty, health, education & crime

* NZ Herald: Consumer NZ calls for action on 'shrinkflation' amid rising concerns

* Jessica Walker for Consumer: Why is the electricity market failing people?

* Rafaela Melo for Hawkes Bay Today-$ 'Avalanche': Home owner of 30 years says his 300% insurance hike in five years is bad sign for NZ

* Janet Hoek for PHCC: Do people who smoke make truly informed choices?

* RNZ: Money spent on locum doctors could be used to attract and retain permanent staff - union

* RNZ: Citizen's arrest changes unlikely to improve public safety, ministry says

Climate and environment

* RNZ: Boats barred from mooring at Little Barrier Island after caulerpa discovery

* Winsley Wrigley for Gisborne Herald-$: Court holds forestry directors accountable for environmental compliance

* Eloise Gibson for RNZ: Taxpayer funded satellite had 'deep-seated problems' from launch

* Stuff: Waitangi Tribunal registers claim calling for urgent hearing into fast tracked plans to mine seabed off Pātea.

* AP: Websites hosting major US climate reports taken down

* AP: Solar minigrid brings light and hope to a Goma neighborhood, offering blueprint for rest of Congo

Good news

* Alisha Evans for LDR via NZ Herald: 'Oh hell, yeah': Pensioner moves from leaky caravan to new elder village

* RNZ: New climate change resilient apple exports tipped to nearly double this year

* RNZ: Invest in nature, no gumboots required

* RNZ: 'Not just baking soda volcanoes': The science fair elevating mātauranga Māori

* Stuff: Single MRI scan could be used to estimate dementia risk

* Colleen Hawkes for The Post-$: These ‘pocket Houses’ on the market have the same footprint as a double garage.

Cartoon of the day: ‘Everyone is else out of touch’

Timeline cleansing nature pic:

Ka kite ano

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking with regular guests Robert Patman and Cathrine Dyer about the week’s news in geopolitics and climate.

This week’s Hoon featured:

* a discussion over research showing the sensitivity to climate change of extreme weather events in Aotearoa-NZ.

* a chat about an application to take Winston Peters, David Seymour, Christopher Luxon, Peter Beck and Judith Collins to the International Criminal Court.

* CICTAR’s Edward Miller talking about his report on UBER’s tax arrangements in Aotearoa-NZ.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in this year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free. Also, here’s a couple of special offers: $3/month or $30/year for under 30s & $6.50/month or $65/year for over 65s who rent.)

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Briefly in the news from Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate on Thursday, July 3:

* Deputy PM David Seymour has forced Finance Minister Nicola Willis to back down on her plan for a long-debated policy costings unit to referee disputes over ‘fiscal black holes’ in election campaigns. Seymour says he doesn’t always trust the officials. See more in The Lead below the paywall fold and in the podcast above.

* Officials warned against the creation of a new Parent Boost migrant visa that could increase migration by up to 15,000 per year, saying it would stress already-clogged hospitals. The Government went ahead anyway. See more in The Sidebar.

* Some pensioners are turning off their hot water boilers in winter to save money on ever-rising electricity bills. See more in Quote of the day below.

* An awful case of migrant abuse has emerged. Satnam Singh, a kebab cook, was beaten up after he asked for 10 weeks of unpaid wages. Number of the day below.

* Fresh research shows the precariousness of workers in Auckland, and the scale of the Uber’s missing tax payments in Aotearoa-NZ. See more in Docs of the Day.

* Today’s Must-Read is from Nicholas Jones at Stuff on the problems with the public-private split opening up in our health system. See Picks ‘n’ Mixes below.

There’s more detail and analysis for paying subscribers below the fold and in the podcast above. If we get over 100 likes I will open it up in full for public reading, listening and sharing.

‘We don’t think the officials always get it right’

Thomas Coughlan has the scoop this morning for NZ Herald-$ (gift link): Battle for fiscal hole unit ends as Act and NZ First block Nicola Willis’ proposal

He reported New Zealand would not be getting a publicly funded body to cost political parties’ election promises for the 2026 election after Act and NZ First shot down a proposal to create one at Cabinet on Monday.

Finance Minister Nicola Willis proposed amended the Public Service Act to allow political parties access to public service resources up to 10 months before an election to cost their policy promises. A unit in the Public Service Commission would have been created to co-ordinate those requests, funded with $1.2 million.

“I took a proposal to Cabinet this week for an independent budget costings unit and, ultimately, the coalition Government has opted not to progress that proposal.

“The proposal was put forward in line with my pre-election commitment that I thought having an independent costings unit would help inform better political debate. I recognise there are also risks, and ultimately Cabinet took the view that the risks outweighed the benefits.” Nicola Willis quoted by Thomas Coughlan.

Deputy Prime Minister David Seymour told Thomas there was no need for the unit and he wouldn’t trust what the officials said anyway.

“We reject this idea that everything a government department does is right. You can’t have the Government auditing the very election process that’s designed to hold them accountable.” David Seymour quoted by Thomas Coughlan.

The sidebar: ‘Our infrastructure can’t cope’

Jamie Ensor has the scoop this morning for NZ Herald-$ (gift link): New Parent Boost visa: Why Ministers were warned over migrant numbers, health system impact

Jamie cited official advice that the new Parent Boost visa could bring in between 5,000 to 15,000 extra migrants in the first year, with an extra 2,000 to 10,000 in the following years, averaging at around 6,000 per year.

“The Ministry of Health advises that there will be impacts on the capacity of the health system to deliver care for those already living in New Zealand and public health system costs.

“Groups entering under the proposed parent visa, even with additional health screening, are likely to have higher health needs than the average population due to age. They would also impose costs on ACC in the event of an accident.

“Their use of health services (private and public) will place some additional pressure on health system capacity and could impact access to timely, quality health care for those already living in New Zealand.” Officials in a cabinet paper.

Immigration Minister Erica Stanford told Jamie there’s no expectation the upper number of 15,000 will be struck annually and many of those who arrive in New Zealand under the new visa may have come here anyway on another visa. Applicant children also need to earn the median wage to sponsor one parent, with the parent having income at least equal to NZ Super. Parent/s also must have available funds of $160,000 for a single parent and $250,000 for a couple to support themselves, and must buy medical insurance.

“This was always going to be a delicate balance to make sure family reunification is possible while also ensuring New Zealand’s health system is protected and we are managing risks of de facto settlement. That’s why the policy was carefully thought through.” Erica Stanford

Quote of the day: A pensioner turns off her hot water heater

“It’s really hard, but it’s the one thing apart from food that I feel I can control, and I do that by turning off the water …I have a shower then and it stays off for three nights.” Via RNZ Checkpoint last night: Pensioners pinch pennies to pay for power

Number of the day: 10 weeks

10 weeks - The amount of unpaid wages migrant worker Satnam Singh asked for, before a group of six men beat him for three hours with a rolling pin used to make roti and a metal rod used for turning meat rolls on a spit. Singh’s leg was broken in three places and he will need surgery for a badly damaged finger, said Sher Singh, a migrant advocate with the Migrant Rights Network. The beaten man then escaped and crawled away into nearby bushes.

“Then he heard them leave, he heard the car leave, and then he dragged himself towards the road.” A street sweeper then found him lying on the road, Sher Singh said. Via Raphael Franks for NZ Herald:

Docs of the day: Auckland’s workers trapped in precarity

Slovenian researcher Marko Galič published this paper The making of precarity: an ethnography on precarious workers in Auckland, New Zealand this morning.

Honorable mention: CICTAR report: Uber in NZ: The Business of Misclassification

Chart of the day: Money in & money out

Top Six Pick ’n’ Mix for Thursday, July 3

* Gary Hamilton Irvine for Hawkes Bay Today-$ (gift link): Asterisks, footnotes and claims of 'weasel words': Inside the battle for region's housing future

* Oliver Lewis for BusinessDesk-$: MoT gauging interest in toll concessions

* Anna Whyte for The Post-$: Internal documents reveal Health Ministry shake-up.

* Sam Sachdeva for Newsroom Pro-$ (free from tomorrow): Constitutional complications for Govt’s census shake-up

* Andrea Vance for The Post-$: Spies flag national security risks in red-tape bill.

* Nicholas Jones for Stuff: Why Birthcare shut its birthing facilities - and the ‘wicked problem’ hurting others.

Scoops & news breaking here and overseas this morning

* RNZ: Evacuations ordered in Tasman settlement ahead of storm

* Tim Murphy for Newsroom: Oranga Tamariki ‘almost certainly’ won’t cope with child concern reports

* Dita de Boni for The Post-$: Only a breakup will fix this, expert says after Foodstuffs warning

* Mary Williams for ODT-$: Finally — a contract for Dunedin Hospital’s inpatient building awarded to CPB

* Reuters: Trump touts deal to put 20% tariff on Vietnam's exports

* Reuters: Starmer gives Reeves full backing after she appeared upset in Parliament

Politics, business, economy & geopolitics

* Jenee Tibshraeny for NZ Herald-$: ACC to tighten claims, cut growth of people on long-term compo

* Thomas Coughlan & Jamie Ensor for NZ Herald-$: SOE pay ranked: Brown calls in officials as CEO pay climbs despite underperformance

* Stuff: Labour leader accuses NZME’s ‘Tory owners’ of favouring National

* Column by Simon Wilson for NZ Herald-$ (gift link): David Seymour has made a mess of almost everything he's touched

* Column by Janet Wilson for The Post-$: Coalition finds a handy distraction in council bashing

* Nick Stride for Interest: Payments NZ launches bank switching facility

Housing, transport, infrastructure & councils

* Mandy Te for Interest: 'Economic growth, enabling abundant housing': Negotiations start for 'city and regional deals'

* Chelsea Daniels for NZ Herald: Auckland golf course sparks controversy

* RNZ: Cost blowout renews call to scrap council's Akaroa wastewater plans

* Stuff: Selwyn mayor hits back at rates rise criticism.

* Benn Bathgate for The Waikato Times-$: Emergency housing hangover hits Hamilton motels hard

* Federico Magrin for The Manawatu Standard-$: Dodgy motel received $2.9m in emergency housing grants

Poverty, health, education & crime

* Motu’s Jaimie Monk for The Conversation: Stable public housing in the first year of life boosts children’s wellbeing years down the track – new research

* RNZ: Have school lunches been fixed?

* Shanti Mathias for The Spinoff: Aotearoa is a great place to grow wheat. So why do we import so much flour?

* 1News: Nearly 1km of copper cable stolen from Hawke's Bay rail crossings

* Yolisa Tswanya for the Northland Age: On The Up: Youth gym transforms lives, offers more than just exercise

* RNZ: Te Puni Kōkiri cagey on when funding review will actually be released

Climate, environment & land

* Eloise Gibson for RNZ: Taxpayer funded satellite likely lost in space

* Charlie Mitchell for The Press-$: NZ ‘highly unlikely’ to meet 2030 biodiversity targets under plan.

* RNZ: Weather agencies' merger set to fix gaps exposed by Gabrielle - NIWA

* Victor Waters for RNZ: Oyster farmers' 7-year battle with Watercare

* Layla Bailey McDowell for RNZ: Māori landowners take Crown to court over water rights

* Massey Uni’s Jeffrey McNeill for The Conversation: Memo to Shane Jones: what if NZ needs more regional government, not less?

Good news

* 1News: Threatened wildlife centre to stay open after deal with creditors, iwi

* 1News: Silver lining to rain-laden clouds over Aotearoa

* Meriana Johnson for The Hui via Te Ao Māor News: The Singapore game maker and Dannervirke-based iwi blending culture and technology to create games

* Mary Afemata for LDR via Te Ao Māori News: Māngere youth turn derelict houses into jobs.

* Rafaella Melo for Hawkes Bay Today: From the theatre to a line mechanic

* Joanna Davis for Stuff: Successful building company gets behind charity build.

Cartoon of the day: Real wage bites

Ka kite ano

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Briefly in the news from Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate on Wednesday, July 2:

* The NZIER’s QSBO survey published yesterday showed businesses remain stubbornly confident about the wider economy and their own businesses, despite their own ‘experienced activity’ in the June quarter being much, much worse than they had expected just three months ago. See more in The Lead below the paywall fold and in the podcast above.

* That ‘delusion gap’ between expectations for the next quarter and what actually happened in the next quarter’s survey widened to its worst levels ever of minus 35% in the June quarter, just as concerns about a lack of consumer demand rose to an 11-year high and architects’ confidence about future construction work collapsed to record lows, particularly for Government infrastructure work. See more in Charts of the day below.

* Foodbank managers report they’re struggling to cope with more demand as the winter sets in, just as they call again for certainty about Government funding, which was rolled over at the last minute for one year in May’s Budget. See more in Quote of the day below.

* An Auckland supermarket offered to sell a 500g tub of semi-soft butter for $18.29 over the weekend. See more in Number of the day below.

* Fresh research published by Michael Plank has found as many as 3,800 lives were saved in 2020 and 2021 because of Aotearoa’s Covid policies. See more below in Doc of the Day.

* Today’s Must-Read is from Amy Williams for RNZ from the inquest into Cyclone Gabrielle, which heard testimony from Metservice yesterday that the Hawkes Bay Council opposed issuing Metservice’s preferred red weather warning before the cyclone hit. See more in Picks ‘n’ Mixes below.

There’s more detail and analysis for paying subscribers below the fold and in the podcast above. If we get over 100 likes I will open it up in full for public reading, listening and sharing.

Behold, another QSBD

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) published its June quarter edition of its Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) yesterday. It matters because it’s the longest running survey and is closely watched by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand as a leading indicator of economic activity, often helping it decide whether to cut or raise rates.

But there’s increasingly a problem from the noise of the political views of business decision-makers overwhelming the signal from their reports of confidence about the economy and their own businesses. When a centre-right Government is in power, businesses are much more confident about the future of the economy broadly. Conversely, when Labour is in power, they are downbeat about the economy as a whole.

This has meant over time that financial markets and the Reserve Bank have learned to ignore the results from the survey’s questions about the ‘General Business Situation’ and instead look more closely at their views about ‘Domestic Trading Activity’, which is all about their own businesses’ activity. Respondents are asked whether their own businesses have experienced an improvement in the current quarter, and whether they expect an improvement in the next quarter. The answers to these questions have generated the ‘signal’ that has correlated with GDP over time, especially the answers about expectations for the next quarter.

Often, the answers for expectations for the next quarter match up with the experience during the next quarter’s survey, given, in theory, businesses are correct in forecasting their own experiences. But in the last six quarters, and for a period during 2009 at the beginning of the last National Government, even that signal is obscured by the noise about expectations with a centre-right management in charge of the economy.

The results from yesterday’s survey show the gap between expected experience next quarter and what actually eventuates has widened to its widest level on record. Every quarter since the election, businesses have forecast an improvement in their own businesses and then been disappointed with the actual outcome. This chart tells the story.

What delusion looks like in chart form

This chart also shows how expectations of ‘own activity’ were also higher than actual GDP growth when National was in power than when Labour was, and that’s happening again. The gap is particularly wide at the moment.

Further reading:

* RNZ: Former Reserve Bank acting governor appointed to its board

* Luke Malpass for The Post-$: The July interest rate cut that’s slipping away. It looks like further interest rate relief may be delayed - but not because the economy is doing any better. Not yet anyway.

* NZ Herald: House-building trend still soft as annual consents fall

Charts of the day: Demand soft & architects quiet

Quote of the day: ‘Please build a fence’

“Foodbanks are not an appropriate response to food poverty. Poverty exists for one simple reason - people don't have enough money. There's a lot of things the government can do to change that. There's a desire in the food rescue and foodbank sector, to put ourselves out of a job, to not be needed. That would be nice.

“We're the ambulance at the bottom of the cliff, and it just seems that more people than ever are falling off the cliff. Sure would be nice if somebody built a fence.” Manukau Foodbank Manager Joel Williams via RNZ

Number of the day: $36.58 per kg

$18.29 - An Auckland supermarket offered to sell a 500g tub of semi-soft butter for $18.29 over the weekend, Consumer NZ reports. Via Stuff

Doc of the day: As many as 3,800 lives saved

A post by epidemiologist Michael Plank: Counting the true toll of the COVID-19 pandemic in New Zealand. It’s based on his paper in the International Journal of Epidemiology: Estimating excess mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic in Aotearoa New Zealand

Top Six Pick ’n’ Mix for Wednesday, July 2

* RNZ: Flood-hit parts of South Island prepare for 'worst-case scenario'

* Deep-dive by Sharon Bretkelly for RNZ/Newsroom’s The Detail: In the midst of a housing crisis, the Govt scales back new builds

* Olivia Caldwell & Rowan Saadi for ODT: Population growth ‘has got ahead of public services’: minister

* Scoop by Dileepa Fonseka for BusinessDesk$: Left and right question ministry mega-merger

* Scoop by Andrew Bevin for Newsroom Pro-$ (free from tomorrow): Gas prices ‘wildly inflated’ in botched Cabinet paper on $200m gas co-investment

* Op-Ed by Waikato Uni’s Lynne Chepulis for The Conversation: The rising rate of type 2 diabetes in young New Zealanders is becoming a health crisis

Breaking here and overseas this morning

* RNZ: FENZ, army send reinforcements as Tasman girds for more heavy rain

* NZ Herald: Atmospheric river to swamp parts of northern NZ, flood-hit South Island braces for fresh deluge

* AP: Senate passes Trump’s big tax breaks and spending cuts bill

* AP: Musk proposes a new political party, Trump suggests DOGE ‘might have to go back and eat Elon’

* Reuters: France shuts schools, Italy limits outdoor work as heatwave grips Europe

* Reuters: USAID cuts may cause over 14 million deaths by 2030, study says

Politics, business, economy & geopolitics

* RNZ: 'Fear-based control': Youth MPs accuse govt of 'censoring' them

* RNZ: ACT Party tried to get Treaty clause removed from education legislation

* RNZ: League veteran and councillor Ken Laban to run for Lower Hutt mayor

* Juha Saarinen for Interest: DIA anti-scam managers axed in cost cutting drive

* Mandy Te for Interest: Insurance premiums increase 51% over three years, comparison website figures show

* Column by Brian Easton for Interest: Constraining fiscal management

Housing, transport, infrastructure & councils

* Deep-dive by Garth Bray for BusinessDesk-$: Vector faces fresh complaint on unfair contract terms

* Greg Ninness for Interest: Low equity borrowing by first home buyers hit a record high in May

* Op-Ed by Pete Hodgson for ODT-$: Delays add $40 million to build cost: Hodgson

* RNZ: 'Cyclists are underclass road users': Truck driver acquitted after death

* RNZ: Plan to use golf course to prevent flooding risks 'hurts the game' - Fox

* RNZ: Port companies & KiwiRail reach deals over two new Cook Strait ferries

Poverty, health, education & crime

* Louise Ternouth for RNZ’s Checkpoint: Free clinic opens at Auckland City Mission to tackle dental crisis

* Serena Solomon for RNZ: Wegovy weight loss medication costs $500 monthly. Should we fund it?

* Lloyd Burr for Stuff: The powerful weight loss drug NZ has been waiting for is now here. It will cost you $500 a month.

* Bridie Witton for Stuff: Prison populations are set to surge — but at what cost?

* AnneMarie Quill for Stuff: Nurse saves $60k on robotic hip surgery in India

* Stuff: Funding axed for ‘vital’ school programme for new NZ families.

Climate, environment & land

* Column by Zeke Hausfather for The Climate Brink: The great acceleration debate. Why the consilience of evidence points toward acceleration

* Scoop by Alice Peacock for Newsroom: DoC and Treasury arm wrestle over visitor levy funds and ‘high-value’ investments

* Fox Meyer for Newsroom: Science sector merged but funding gaps remain

* RNZ: Concerns about energy security prompt hunt for more power

* Ellen O’Dwyer for RNZ: Future of Wellington aquarium uncertain due to coastal erosion, sea level rise

* Op-Ed by Auckland Uni’s Tim Welch for The Conversation: NZ cities are getting hotter: 5 things councils can do now to keep us cooler when summer comes

Cartoon of the day: Kicking down

Ka kite ano

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe