The Kākā by Bernard Hickey

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* Treasury published the Pre Election Fiscal Update (PREFU) on Tuesday, including a one-year delay in Labour returning the Budget to surplus to 2026/27 and an extra $9 billion in borrowing over the next four years. But it also showed Aotearoa avoiding a recession, largely due to record high net migration this year. I wrote and podcasted about it in Wednesday’s email and did an episode of Gone By Lunchtime for The Spinoff with Toby Manhire on the PREFU on Tuesday. The video version of that is below.

* National Leader Christopher Luxon and National Finance Spokesperson Nicola Willis refused repeatedly to release the modelling for their foreign buyers tax, despite independent economists publishing a paper showing the tax was likely to raise just a fifth of the $2.4 billion projected by National over four years. I challenged Nicola Willis on the plan, as well as National’s views on population, infrastructure funding and fiscal settings in a news conference I wrote about in Thursday’s email and podcast.

* REINZ data published on Wednesday showed the housing market warming up in anticipation of a National-ACT win on October 14, which I argued in Thursday’s email was likely to unleash an effective 20% rise in residential land prices the day after the election.

* A UN stocktake of progress achieving the 2015 Paris agreement was published last weekend showing commitments and progress made by the countries that signed up to the Paris Agreement estimated the gap to emissions consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C in 2030 was estimated to be 20.3–23.9 Gt CO2 equivalent and the planet was on track to warm by 2.7 °C by 2100. I wrote about that in Monday’s email.

* Polls from Newshub/Reid Research on Monday and 1News/Verian on Wednesday showed support for Labour slumping under 30% and National-ACT able to govern alone from October 15. I wrote and podcasted about that in Tuesday’s email.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Friday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night:

* 5.00 pm - 5.05 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about Te Reo week and Elon Musk.

* 5.05 pm - 5.20 pm - Bernard, Peter and Cathrine Dyer talked about Labour’s deep retrofit trial policy and decision not to ban new gas connections, along with the latest UN stocktake on climate emissions, and a paper showing the world breaching its planetary boundaries.

* 5.20 pm - 5.40 pm - Bernard and Peter and Robert Patman talked about Ukraine’s latest strikes on Russia, Vladimir Putin’s meeting with Kim Jong Un and what the surprise disappearance of China’s Defence Minister Li Shangfu says about unity around China’s President Xi Jinping.

* 5.40 - 6.00 pm - Bernard and Peter spoke with Interest.co.nz’s Rebecca Stevenson about her scoop this week that banks are paying hush money to not talk about widespread scams and fraud being perpetuated on their customers, sometimes by fraudsters with bank accounts here.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Charts of the week

NZ doesn’t have a debt problem

House prices set to jump 20% if National-ACT win

National-ACT set to govern alone, two TV polls show

Christopher catches up to Chris as preferred PM

Berkeley Earth’s estimates of the causes of temperature change

Climate video of the week

Medicane Daniel destroys Derna in Libya

Other places we appeared this week

I interviewed Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr on Wednesday for When The Facts Change via The Spinoff. We took a lap around the macro-economy in the immediate aftermath of the PREFU. He sees signs of green shoots emerging in many regions.

We also produce this 5 in 5 with ANZ daily podcast and Substack for ANZ Institutional in Australia, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Some fun things

Cartoons of the week

Ka kite

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit thekaka.substack.com

TL;DR: In the 2011 and 2014 election campaigns then-National PM John Key shredded Labour Opposition leaders Phil Goff and David Cunliffe with the simple challenge to their tax revenue estimates: ‘Show me the money.’

Finance Minister Grant Robertson did the same last night in the finance spokespeoples’ election debate in Queenstown by targeting National’s refusal to release the modelling behind its plan to raise $2.4 billion from a 15% tax on foreign buyers’ purchases over $2 million. This came after an independent economists’ report demonstrated a $2 billion hole in National’s plan.

“At least I’ve got a plan. Where are your costings? Show us the costings Nicola!?” Grant Robertson in last night’s debate in Queenstown.

Paying subscribers can hear more detail and my analysis in the podcast above, including an interview with Nick Goodall from CoreLogic. The interview is also available on its own for the public. along with the PDF of a powerpoint presentation I used in a live webinar version of this for paying subscribers this morning.

The new ‘Show Me The Money’ moment

TL;DR: National Finance Spokesperson Nicola Willis has signalled a National Government would produce a lower debt track than Labour, but has yet to say what it is forecasting or how it would pay for infrastructure investment necessary for ongoing population growth of 2%.

Willis told reporters in a standup yesterday after a speech to a KangaNews conference for bond investors and traders in Auckland that a fiscal plan would be due within a couple of weeks.

Have a listen to my questions and Willis’ answers above from that news conference. The transcript is above too. I have opened this up for all, given Willis may be the Finance Minister within 31 days.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

TL;DR: Treasury published a PREFU yesterday that exposed the Opposition’s claims about the Government being ‘addicted to spending’ and presiding over a ‘fiscal catastrophe’ as both hollow and dangerous, given these politicians are quite likely to be in charge of those same finances in just over a month, and will need to assure foreign investors the Government’s credit is good.

But the PREFU isn’t all ticketyboo. Yet again, Treasury does not include the very real liabilities being stored up for future generations in the form of higher public health, climate, education and housing spending because of the systematic and ongoing underinvestment in infrastructure, relative to population growth of 1.5% to 2.0% per year, which is being pursued by both sides of politics in an unacknowledged, undebated and unplanned-for way that essentially pulls forward well to today’s voters and stores up climate and health liabilities for renters under 40 and/or yet to be born.

Both sides of politics are betting on higher migration and tax cuts to keep themselves in power, but by doing so are freezing in place an unsustainable structure of our tax system and Government that is starving the nation of investment. In essence, Labour and National are consuming today’s cash profits, rather than reinvesting surpluses to help the young deal with a more difficult future, let alone improve their health and wealth. It’s a selfish, short-sighted and fundamentally sociopathic approach to governing.

Paying subscribers can hear more detail in the podcast above, along with the PDF of a powerpoint presentation. UPDATE: I have now opened this up for listening, reading and sharing for all after requests from paying subscribers.

Chart of the day

Our Churn and Burn economy

Table of the day

Global productivity slump? This might be a factor…

Social media users in Australia spend and average of 1 hour and 22 minutes a day on TikTok and nearly an hour on Instagram, reports the AFR’s tech reporter Mark Di Stefano via X

Quote of the day

Saving the furniture V2.0?

“Good thing Labour didn't introduce a wealth tax, capital gains tax, cannabis legalisation or any other policy that may have led to significant change. Wouldn't want to do something at the risk of being unpopular when you can simply do nothing and [checks notes] poll at 26.8%” StrayDogNZ via X

Climate pictures of the day

The disaster in Libya needs more attention

“Emergency workers uncovered more than 1,500 bodies in the flood wreckage of Libya’s eastern city of Derna, and it is feared the toll could spiral with 10,000 people reported still missing,” AP reported with video via X

Maps of the day

It’s supposed to still be the colder months in the Southern Hemisphere

"Twin" unseasonal heat waves in Southern Africa and South America with widespread temperatures >40C in early spring. >40C in South Africa and Botswana,42C in Bolivia and Paraguay,>41C in Argentina and Brazil, ExtremeTemps reports via X.

Cartoons of the day

Cartoons by Sharon Murdoch via The Post-$$$ and X and Chris Slane via Listener-$$$ and X. Please Subscribe to them via those links.

Ka kite ano

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* I interviewed Labour Leader and PM Chris Hipkins about Labour’s pitch for re-election for When The Facts Change, which was published yesterday here in video form.

* National Leader Christopher Luxon and Hipkins laid out their visions for economic and business growth this week, but failed again to address the elephants in the room of our political economy. I wrote about that in Thursday’s email.

* This elephants include very fast population growth without enough infrastructure investment, our tax system’s overwhelming incentives for savers to invest in residential land rather than businesses and the unaccounted-for and massive climate, health and economic liabilities lurking in the Crown’s financial future without changes in housing, tax and climate policy.

* We published our first edition of The Kaka Project on universal dental care.

* Deep doubts emerged over National’s projected $2.96 billion of revenues from its foreign buyers’ tax, given tax lawyers and economists doubt the legal status of the tax and a required surge in foreign buying to collect that amount, which funds a fifth of National’s tax cuts. I wrote about that in Tuesday’s email.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Friday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night (my apologies that an earlier version of this email included last week’s podcast file):

* 5.00 pm - 5.05 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about fresh polls showing Labour falling further behind National.

* 5.05 pm - 5.20 pm - Bernard, Peter and Cathrine Dyer talked about National’s plan to dump the ‘Ute Tax’ and fresh research showing the need for a massive decoupling between GDP growth and climate emissions to stop the planet warming past dangerous levels.

* 5.20 pm - 5.40 pm - Bernard and Peter and Robert Patman talked about the United States’ ongoing attempts to isolate China, which are facing increasing headwinds from global companies now dependent on China, including Apple.

* 5.40 - 6.00 pm - Bernard, Peter, Robert and columnist for The Post, Josie Pagani, talked about the paucity of debate about ideas and big policies in the election debate so far.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Charts of the week

NZ also champion of the world in the wrong thing

And this thing too

Climate pic of the day

700mm fell on Pelion in a day (same as London’s rain for a year)

Other places we appeared this week

We also produce this daily podcast and Substack, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Some fun things

Cartoons of the week

Ka kite

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* I interviewed Labour Leader and PM Chris Hipkins about Labour’s pitch for re-election for When The Facts Change, which was published yesterday here in video form.

* National Leader Christopher Luxon and Hipkins laid out their visions for economic and business growth this week, but failed again to address the elephants in the room of our political economy. I wrote about that in Thursday’s email.

* This elephants include very fast population growth without enough infrastructure investment, our tax system’s overwhelming incentives for savers to invest in residential land rather than businesses and the unaccounted-for and massive climate, health and economic liabilities lurking in the Crown’s financial future without changes in housing, tax and climate policy.

* We published our first edition of The Kaka Project on universal dental care.

* Deep doubts emerged over National’s projected $2.96 billion of revenues from its foreign buyers’ tax, given tax lawyers and economists doubt the legal status of the tax and a required surge in foreign buying to collect that amount, which funds a fifth of National’s tax cuts. I wrote about that in Tuesday’s email.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Friday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night:

* 5.00 pm - 5.05 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about fresh polls showing Labour falling further behind National.

* 5.05 pm - 5.20 pm - Bernard, Peter and Cathrine Dyer talked about National’s plan to dump the ‘Ute Tax’ and fresh research showing the need for a massive decoupling between GDP growth and climate emissions to stop the planet warming past dangerous levels.

* 5.20 pm - 5.40 pm - Bernard and Peter and Robert Patman talked about the United States’ ongoing attempts to isolate China, which are facing increasing headwinds from global companies now dependent on China, including Apple.

* 5.40 - 6.00 pm - Bernard, Peter, Robert and columnist for The Post, Josie Pagani, talked about the paucity of debate about ideas and big policies in the election debate so far.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Charts of the week

NZ also champion of the world in the wrong thing

And this thing too

Climate pic of the day

700mm fell on Pelion in a day (same as London’s rain for a year)

Other places we appeared this week

We also produce this daily podcast and Substack, which you can sign up to via Spotify and Apple and Youtube for free.

Some fun things

Cartoons of the week

Ka kite

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

TL;DR: In our first formal edition of The Kākā Project for Election 2023, we examine the parties’ policies on publicly-funded dental care and make the case for universality.

The podcast above includes an interview with Max Harris from ActionStation, one of the campaigners for universal dental care. He details how the campaign formed and how and why the ‘Overton Window’ was widened to include public debate on universality, where it was once not discussed.

This article and podcast is being published immediately and in full for all subscribers to read, listen and share, both the paying ones and the free ones. It does not have a paywall and can be shared. This is part of our commitment to paying subscribers who support our public interest journalism daily. We cover Aotearoa’s political economy with a special focus on housing, climate and poverty. Join our active community of paying subscribers to help us do more.

Through the lens of The Kaka Project

In The Kaka Project for Election 2023 we try to put the latest policy or political development into the context of:

* the key problems, facts and history around the issue being addressed by the election policy or political issue;

* The alternatives proposed by other political parties standing for election, regardless of whether they’re already in Parliament or polling suggests they are on track to be elected;

* the pros and cons, trade-offs, unintended consequences and flow-on implications to other areas of the political economy from those policies;

* unanswered questions; and,

* the options from overseas or policies not proposed by political parties, including The Kaka Project’s current preferred policy.

The news this week

PM Chris Hipkins launched Labour’s policy to extend publicly-funded basic dental care from under-18s to under 30s from July 26 at the party’s campaign launch on Saturday. He also said Labour wanted to extend this type of state-funded dental care universally at some point, but said the estimated $1 billion per year extra cost (0.25% of GDP per year or $10 per household per week) was not affordable now.

If Labour wins a third term on October 14, it will fund annual check-ups, cleans, X-rays, basic fillings and extractions for nearly 800,000 under 30-year-olds. The funding would be extended from 18 year old up to 23-year-olds from July 2025, expanding to 29-year-olds from July 2026.

Labour said it would increase the dental course cap by 50% to 90 new students a year at a cost of $10 million per year to expand the workforce. The policy would increase the share of the population with this level of subsidised care to 40%, and increase the subsidies by $390 million over four years, with the final year’s full extra cost of $160 million per year by 2027/28.

Hipkins was asked repeatedly at the news conference after his campaign launch address as to why Labour didn’t go universal immediately or sooner. He said it was not affordable now and capacity in the dental workforce needed to be built up. I asked Hipkins if the future financial liability of not going universal had been measured, and if it had, whether it justified going universal earlier. He simply said it could not be afforded.

Health Minister Ayesha Verrall said the Government hoped to get an extra 200 dental workers migrating here under the green list to start ramping up capacity. She said there remained a waiting list in hospitals for dental surgery for kids with rotten teeth, although it had been reduced in recent months.

The policy document referred to Te Whatu Ora’s August 2022 Reset and Restore plan from its Planned Care Taskforce that made various recommendations about addressing poor access to surgery for Maori and Pacifica patients, and long waiting lists for dental procedures. The document said the Labour Government had provided additional funding though the COVID-19 Recovery Relief Fund for 720 additional procedures in the four months from February 2023. Further funding to reduce dental surgical waitlists for 2023/24 was part of $118 million allocated in Budget 2023 to reduce waiting lists.

The document also referred to The Dunedin Study’s 2020 paper on oral health from its longitudinal study, which concluded (bolding ours):

There is no ‘perfect’ oral health care system, and New Zealand’s current system serves the majority of the country’s younger people well, but more needs to be done to address inequity in access to dental care among New Zealand adults. Parental oral health is associated with that of the next generation. The argument that efforts to improve the oral health of adults (particularly young mothers) will have benefits for the oral health of children throughout life stands up to both reason and analysis. Changes in the dental health system will not happen without significant shifts in policy at all levels of government, and actions towards this must be universal and proportionate to need.

The problem of low dental service utilisation among young adults remains an enduring problem. The 2017/18 National Health Survey reported 44% of the NZ population had put off dental care during the past year due to the cost, but among those aged 25–34 the figure was 59%. Dunedin Study findings have shown that, as the responsibility of dental care shifted onto the individuals themselves–especially for those who are socio-economically disadvantaged–poorer oral health outcomes can be expected.

Young adulthood tends to be a period of life when disposable income is low and other priorities (e.g. tertiary study, raising children) mean dental care is beyond reach. It is crucial that we recognise the unmet dental needs of our population and adapt New Zealand’s oral health system to have appropriate focus on prevention and primary dental care. More needs to be done such so that the oral healthcare system can help redress the current inequalities in child oral health into and through adulthood. The Dunedin Study’s 2020 paper on oral health

The facts of the matter

* Labour promised the extension of free basic dental care from young children to under-18s in the 2005 election, but has argued it was too expensive to extend beyond 18 since then, although members at a Labour party conference in 2018 voted for universal free dental care.

* Over 1.5 million adults have a cost-related unmet need for dental care and over 15,000 hospital stays a year are needed for treatment of oral health conditions.

* Treasury research has estimated the real economic cost of ill-health generally at between $10 billion and $27 billion.

* A NZ Dental Association study from 2019 found that Treasury’s Cost Benefit Analysis (CBAx) model produced $1.60 in benefits to the Government for every $1 spent when $590 per adult per year was spent on primary health care, with $4.50 of societal benefits for every $1 spent.

Other parties’ policies

The Green Party has proposed free dental care for all through a new community-based New Zealand Dental Service at an annual operating cost of $1.71 billion by 2025/26 and capital expenditure of $150 million over four years on mobile clinics and equipment, to be funded by a wealth tax.

The National Party does not appear to have a specific dental policy, but at the 2020 Election proposed to spend an extra $30 million on improving dental services for children, including a free toothbrush, toothpaste and information pack each year and a free fluoride varnish.

Te Pati Maori has proposed free health and dental care for families earning less than $60,000 per year. The Opportunities Party has proposed free primary dental care for under-30s.

The ACT Party and the NZ First Party do not appear to have specific policies for dental care.

Pros, cons, trade-offs, unintended consequences & implications

Spending less on public dental care costs reduces the amount of the Government’s operational spending deficit and reduces public borrowing, which in turn reduces interest rates and mortgage rates (all other things not changing).

Ramping up spending on public health care would require extra training and employment of thousands of dentists and dental technicians within Te Whatu Ora, or recruitment of trained migrants, and would take many years.

Unanswered questions

What studies have Treasury or the Ministry of Health done using cost benefit analysis of the benefits to the Government and society of extra public spending on universal primary dental care?

What long-term liabilities have been included in The Crown’s financial accounts of not spending money to extend universal dental care to all adults from under-18s?

The Kaka Project proposals

Publicly-funded primary dental care for all, justified by operational spending and capital spending less than the long-term liabilities of not spending the money.

Sugar taxes on beverages and confectionary, along with bans on sugary drinks in schools and sugary food advertising.

This proposal is part of a wider Kākā Project plan for:

* a broad-based and low-rate tax system on income, spending, land, climate emissions, water pollution, treated water and congestion to fund publicly funded education, health, transport and housing;

* that includes a 0.5% per annum tax on all residential zoned land (with multiples for unoccupied homes and land) to fund infrastructure that enables enough zero emissions housing and transport infrastructure to halve emissions by 2030 and remove them completely by 2050; and,

* that achieves housing and transport affordability for all by 2050, as measured by renting or ownership costs being less than a combined 40% of disposable income for those in the poorest quintile of earners.

My view: There’s a good case for a much faster and wider application of such basic free dental care because of the long term costs in hospital care and long term productivity for not treating and preventing oral surgery. A proper accounting of those liabilities would provide the financial justification for that more extensive and faster adoption of subsidised pre-emptive care.

But Labour has instead chosen lower deficits and lower interest rates, serving the interests of home-owning median voters benefiting from tax-free gains in residential land values.

Labour is choosing to continue those incentives for a low investment, low wage economy that stores up big climate, health and productivity liabilities for future voters, along with extensive ongoing inter-generational wealth transfers from young renters to old land owners.

Your view? Suggestions for other editions of The Kākā Project?

Ka kite ano

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

TL;DR: National announced this week it would create a ‘climate dividend’ that simply re-purposes over $2 billion of Emissions Trading Scheme fund cash for tax cuts generally. (Resent with fixed audio in podcast above)

The Kākā’s Climate Correspondent Cathrine Dyer spoke to independent ETS expert Christina Hood about:

* how Aotearoa’s ETS doesn’t currently direct all its revenues to the existing Climate Emergency Response Fund (CERF) because it is the world’s only ETS that includes pine forest planters so they can receive cash from ETS revenues for planting trees;

* how Canada’s ‘climate dividend’ (see more in the graphic below) is a better way to direct the most funds to those who need it most and are hurt most by climate change; and,

* how the current use of the ETS funds from the CERF to subsidise further emissions reduction actually gives ‘two bangs for every buck’ earned from the scheme because it both incentivises lower emissions from fossil fuels and then further reduces emissions with the CERF subsidies.

Cathrine and Bernard then put that discussion into the context of Election 2023 in their own discussion below. An introduction and then the interview with Christina and then Cathrine and Bernard’s post-interview chat are combined into the podcast above. The introduction and interview are also below separately in video form.

This email, podcast and the videos are available for all the public to view, listen, read and share for all as part of The Kākā’s commitment to public interest journalism about housing, the climate and poverty, and in particular, solutions journalism such as this. It is funded by paying subscribers to The Kākā, who are able to comment, get access to all emails and podcasts early and be invited into the very active Chat section above for paying subscribers. Join us as a paying subscriber to help support more of this work.

The introduction

The interview

The Canadian example

Ka kite ano

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

TL;DR: National announced this week it would create a ‘climate dividend’ that simply re-purposes over $2 billion of Emissions Trading Scheme fund cash for tax cuts generally.

The Kākā’s Climate Correspondent Cathrine Dyer spoke to independent ETS expert Christina Hood about:

* how Aotearoa’s ETS doesn’t currently direct all its revenues to the existing Climate Emergency Response Fund (CERF) because it is the world’s only ETS that includes pine forest planters so they can receive cash from ETS revenues for planting trees;

* how Canada’s ‘climate dividend’ (see more in the graphic below) is a better way to direct the most funds to those who need it most and are hurt most by climate change; and,

* how the current use of the ETS funds from the CERF to subsidise further emissions reduction actually gives ‘two bangs for every buck’ earned from the scheme because it both incentivises lower emissions from fossil fuels and then further reduces emissions with the CERF subsidies.

Cathrine and Bernard then put that discussion into the context of Election 2023 in their own discussion below. An introduction and then the interview with Christina and then Cathrine and Bernard’s post-interview chat are combined into the podcast above. The introduction and interview are also below separately in video form.

This email, podcast and the videos are available for all the public to view, listen, read and share for all as part of The Kākā’s commitment to public interest journalism about housing, the climate and poverty, and in particular, solutions journalism such as this. It is funded by paying subscribers to The Kākā, who are able to comment, get access to all emails and podcasts early and be invited into the very active Chat section above for paying subscribers. Join us as a paying subscriber to help support more of this work.

The introduction

The interview

The Canadian example

Ka kite ano

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā for paying subscribers in the last week included:

* National launched its Election 2023 plan for $14.6 billion of tax cuts paid for with government spending cuts, a raid on climate funds and a few new taxes on home-buying migrants and migrants paying for visas. I previewed the plan in Wednesday morning’s email.

* National’s plan directs most of the $14.6 billion at the ‘squeezed middle’ of home-owning and car-driving families with children in childcare, but leaves behind the ‘squashed bottom’ of young renters without kids or cars, along with beneficiaries and the disabled in particular. I covered the details in a breaking news email late on Wednesday morning.

* Childless and disabled beneficiaries who have to use buses and have to collect a lot of prescriptions would be the biggest losers from National’s plan, along with commercial property owners. The biggest winners would be ‘mum and dad’ rental property portfolio owners with a couple of double-cab utes and a boat that burns fuel. I wrote more about it Friday morning’s email.

* The Labour Government unveiled $4 billion worth of cuts to spending plans on Monday, including more than $200 million of cuts to climate emissions reductions spending that it didn’t tell Climate Change Minister James Shaw about first. I wrote about it in a breaking news email on Monday afternoon.

* The IMF said Aotearoa’s housing market was still 50% overvalued and warned the Government was on track to miss its Paris targets to cut emissions, which would lead to billions of dollars in emissions liabilities that should be included in the Crown Accounts. I wrote about it in Tuesday’s email, podcast and video.

What we talked about on ‘The Hoon’ on Friday night

In this week’s podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers at 5pm on Friday night:

* 5.00 pm - 5.05 pm - Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale opened the show with a discussion about the ominous debates brewing around co-governance on the election trail.

* 5.05 pm - 5.20 pm - Bernard, Peter and Cathrine Dyer talked about National’s plan to raid the Climate Emergency Response Fund with a ‘climate dividend’ to pay for tax cuts.

* 5.20 pm - 5.40 pm - Bernard and Peter and Robert Patman talked about Ukraine’s breakthrough in its war with Russia and China’s border disputes with both India and China.

* 5.40 - 6.00 pm - Bernard, Peter, Robert and columnist for The Post, Josie Pagani, talked about the paucity of debate about ideas and big policies in the election debate so far.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was produced by Simon Josey.

This is a sampler for all free subscribers. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, I’m able to spread the work from my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction around in other public venues. I’d love you to join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments.

Parliamentary exchange of the week

Nicola Willis vs Grant Robertson in Question Time on Wednesday

Nicola Willis: Why can he always find funding for his pet projects but he repeatedly denies meaningful tax relief for the squeezed middle of New Zealand, slogging their guts out, being crushed by his cost of living crisis?

Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: Because on this side of the House, we make sure that what we put in front of New Zealand is properly costed, adds up, and that we can pay for it. We're not relying on our promises for an increasing number of foreign speculators to buy a dwindling number of houses in our housing market—that's the kind of voodoo economics the member is currently presenting to New Zealanders.

Nicola Willis: Hasn't he lost all credibility when his books are in such a mess that he's been left scrambling for savings that, just two weeks ago, he said would amount to cuts; and isn't the reality here that this finance Minister has lost control and it's time for new economic management?

Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: We could take that lyrical expression from the member or we could take the view of an independent ratings agency who last night said that the New Zealand economy was in good health, had robust goverance standards, and a robust policy framework, and who supported the Government's strong track record of prudent financial management. So we could listen to "Trickola Willis" or we could listen to Fitch.

Nicola Willis: Why should Kiwis have confidence in a name-calling Minister of Finance when his big plan, his audacious idea for beating the cost of living crisis, is a few cents off some carrots?

Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: This Government, over the course of the last couple of years, has stood by New Zealanders as they have faced increased cost of living pressures. We've lifted the family tax credit. We've lifted benefits. We've lifted the childcare assistance rates. We've lifted the minimum wage. We've helped people stay in their jobs. That's the kind of real action that actually supports New Zealanders during a cost of living crisis. And every single one of those initiatives—opposed by the National Party. Via Hansard

Chart of the week

The profit driver in NZ’s inflation in the 18 months to end of 2022

Map of the week

South America had heat waves in the winter month of August

Other places I’ve appeared this week

My podcast for The Spinoff this week: Buses beyond the big cities

This week in my weekly podcast via The Spinoff, When The Facts Change, I spoke with Whanganui-based public transport advocate and award-winning singer-songerwriter Anthonie Tonnon about the low-hanging fruit of public transport improvements in smaller towns and cities in Aotearoa.

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Some fun things

Cartoons of the week

Ka kite ano

Bernard

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