This is par for the course when it comes to government numbers. If we simply paid attention to only headline figures, one would be convinced that the jobs report from today was a great number. However, if you look deeper into the numbers, things ain’t so pretty. On the back of all the other issues we discuss – auto loan payment delinquencies, retail store closures, increases to credit card defaults and student loans, slowing productivity, reduction in construction spending, how can headline unemployment be at 49 year lows? Well when you understand the true environment in which we live – fraud and deception are the appetizer, the main course, and dessert – down the hatchet!

So the Dems are at it again, calling the AG a criminal for “lying to Congress” and now the Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, Jerry Nadler, is giving the AG a deadline to release the entire un-redacted Mueller report or face the possibility of being held in contempt of Congress. Ain’t it a great time to be alive?! – oh the politics! We also discuss the jobs report that blew through expectations, but upon a deeper look, things don’t look so great. Are we living in a fool’s economic paradise?

With all of the funny-money out there in the market place, thanks to the central banks the world-over, people are taking risks that they otherwise may not have made. Specifically here, we’re discussing recent IPOs into the markets. This is rather reminiscent of the Dot-Com era where investors were more concerned with revenues as opposed to profits. Well a lot of these IPOs have revenues, but they don’t have profits – where might this be headed? We also have an additional discussion concerning overall market- cap valuations and asking if they are sustainable?

Recalling the State of the Union Address from this year, President Trump informed us as to a few items that could derail the “economic miracle.” These items are playing out: endless wars, as the Venezuelan crisis heats up, political divisiveness, and further partisan investigations into Trump. In addition, we also have the Pres playing games with the Fed. The Pres will take all the credit for the “good,” but is setting the stage to lay the blame for all the “bad” on the Dems and the Fed. Meanwhile, AG Bill Barr was a no-show for his hearing before the House Judiciary Committee and now there are calls for his resignation and for him to be held in contempt.

So the Fed was out today with its decision following their 2-day policy meeting. It was no surprise as rates remained unchanged and the Fed is going to continue with their wait-and-see, data-dependent approach. Therefore, the Fed did not acquiesce to Trump’s demands and lower interest rates and/or implement another round of QE. Does this mean the Fed and the Pres are at odds or is there some kind of game being played?

The circus is in town and it ain’t leaving any time soon. The AG was up on Capitol Hill providing testimony to the Senate Judiciary Committee regarding the findings of the Mueller investigation. Well it was a complete partisan show where the Republicans were asking structural questions regarding election interference; meanwhile, the Dems were all about obstruction of justice. The Dems are clinging to hope that they can hurt the President when it comes to obstruction of justice – it won’t work. Also, a brief update to yesterday’s discussion surrounding the Fed and the economy.

While the S&P 500 closed at a new record high and the Fed is holding its 2-day interest rate policy meeting, the Pres took to twitter to call out the Fed. This time, the Pres is telling the Fed to cut rates by 100 basis points or 1% and to also embark on another round of QE. This begs the question: If everything is “great,” then why do we need lower interest rates and the emergency policy of QE? Something is amiss and perhaps the Pres is attempting to box in the Fed and to set up the narrative that it’s the Fed’s fault should the economy and/or the stock market roll over and turn negative.

A few stories worth discussing today pertained to the uprising in Venezuela, the Pres attacking the Fed, and perhaps an upcoming agreement on infrastructure spending. The story in Venezuela is one of geopolitical importance because it’s primarily concerned with oil and gas, but many questions remain and so the situation will remain fluid for some time to come. Meanwhile, the Fed is in the midst of its 2-day meeting to determine the next move for interest rates and right on time, the Pres was out tweeting that the Fed should cut interest rates and embark on another round of QE. If everything is “great,” then why implement emergency measures? Lastly, we discuss the pending infrastructure negotiations.

With the recent reading of 3.2% for 2019 Q1 GDP beating expectations by a mile, it makes us skeptical as to what’s going on. A major driver of GDP growth was an increase in inventories. However, imports were down and we have been told throughout Q1 that production has been stagnant or slowing. Therefore, how were inventories built up to such a degree? We also have the Fed meeting this week, so it’ll be interesting to see how they play this recent GDP report because we still have The White House advocating for interest rate cuts and QE4. Wait?! We thought everything was fine – why then would we need the implementation of emergency measures?

Deputy AG, Rod Rosenstein tendered his resignation and will be leaving the Justice Department on May 11th. Is this part of a larger clean-up within the DOJ and will AG Bill Barr begin investigating the investigators? Meanwhile, Sleepy Joe Biden has poor messaging and he’s only just begun. Also, a brief update to the Brexit saga.