The LightShed Podcast

[0:00] After Midnight.

[1:22] Rich is introduced to the global power crisis.

[5:24] FOX/Flutter Arbitration Will Trigger Final FOX Unwind.

[6:51] Disney Keeps ESPN to Enable it to Buyout Comcast’s Hulu Stake and Win IPL Rights.

[9:38] 5G Wireless Home Broadband Emerges as a Viable Competitor to Cable.

[10:40] Roku Buys Vizio Instead of a Studio.

[12:58] Charter Tiers Sinclair RSNs as Local/Regional Sports Begin OTT.

[15:28] ViacomCBS Acquires Lionsgate.

[17:46] Bobby Kotick Stays at Activision in Perhaps His Last Stand.

[20:28] Amazon’s Disruption Continues, Adding Another Global Operator to Its Cloud

[24:15] The Metaverse Ages Up.

[25:45] Dish Will Finally Merge Its Pay TV Business With DirecTV.

[27:19] Zaslav Comes Out Aggressively as CEO of Warner Bros Discovery.

[29:55] Sunday Ticket Rights Go to Big Tech: Amazon or Apple.

[35:45] IDFA = Investors Don’t Fear Anymore.

[37:59] As Alternative Currencies Emerge, Nielsen Rates Begin to Decline.

[39:06] Music Spreads Across Gaming and the Metaverse Creating Music Label Catalyst.

[40:51] Sports Betting Consolidation Begins as NY State Becomes #1 Market.

[42:52] Blockchain Gaming Gets its First Breakout Hit.

[44:27] Domestic Box Office Finds a New Normal at $8.5-$9 billion, Down 20%+ vs. 2019.

[48:46] Netflix Global Sub Adds Accelerate Back toward Mid-20s.

[50:33] Record Year for Live Events.

[53:13] Apple TV+ Has a Breakout Movie Year.

[54:46] T-Mobile will cave on the Boost MVNO deal.

[55:56] Thank you all.

[56:31] Auld Lang Syne.

[0:00] Run Rudolph Run.

[1:56] Did Rich find WiFi while on safari?

[4:11] Advertising sentiment recession.

[9:45] Do not judge Netflix’s AVOD success prior to the password crackdown.

[13:24] The broadcast TV death spiral is accelerating.

[16:20] Moving Sunday Ticket to digital should increase churn in the overall MVPD/vMVPD universe.

[26:27] If the Suns are worth $4bn then what are the Knicks worth?

[29:29] YouTube TV spending on Sunday Ticket but only Fubo embracing the RSNs.

[34:01] Mass gaming commission’s personal attack on Barstool.

[36:05] Elon's war on bots had an unintended consequence.

[39:05] Would a great Twitter CEO work for Elon?

[42:18] By his own demand, Ari Emmanuel’s abs return.

[44:29] We do not expect Avatar’s box office to break $1.5bn.

[48:10] Adam Aron’s simple arithmetic gift to the shorts.

[53:56] Frosty.

[0:00] 25 or 6 to 4.

[1:56] Recording podcast over two days, simultaneously.

[4:21] Avatar box office over/under: $1.5 billion?

[8:40] Walt has been kicked off Twitter.

[13:13] Elon driving advertisers away.

[19:40] Why is it only Apple’s fees that should be regulated?

[25:09] Password sharing is the unlock that will grow Netflix’s ad-supported tier.

[29:20] +play should benefit both Verizon and consumers.

[35:25] Can you build a streaming wars winner while rapidly cutting costs?

[40:14] Charter’s Tom Rutledge capex déjà vu.

[45:35] There is a surprising lack of buzz around a TikTok ban.

[49:22] Vince McMahon needs to stay away from WWE.

[54:03] Did NFL pick Apple TV+ or YouTube TV?

[58:41] MSFT makes surprising offer to get ATVI deal done.

[1:01:12] 2023 could be a difficult year for Roblox.

[1:03:43] RIP live audio?

[1:06:03] 25 or 6 to 4.

[0:00] Sweet Caroline.

[2:02] Visors: yay or nay?

[5:05] ATVI stock is well positioned with or without Microsoft.

[13:09] A Diamond Sports restructuring is the beginning of the end for RSNs.

[15:50] Non-NFL leagues need to rethink their streaming plans and combine national with local.

[18:21] Expect HBO Max on Prime subs to exceed the original HBO deal’s impact.

[22:17] What should WBD rebrand HBO Max? 

[24:59] Streaming requires further consolidation but can it pass regulatory?

[31:25] 2022 ad trends create a scary setup for legacy media in 2023.

[36:12] Breakout content and cheaper price points could unleash Netflix sub growth.

[40:19] There is no Apple/Elon autonomous vehicles conspiracy.

[41:43] Positive early datapoints for Dish's post-paid service.

[44:39] Even TikTok is growth hacking these days.

[48:35] WWE needs a sustained content hot streak leading into domestic renewals.

[51:34] Why not pair MSGN with AMCX?

[55:26] Enforcing bot laws will fix the ticketing biz much more than breaking up LYV/Ticketmaster.

[57:50] How well can Fanatics diversify away from its core biz? 

[59:45] We need Jalen Hurts and Justin Verlander jerseys.

[1:00:15] Cracklin Rosie.

[0:00] Everywhere.

[0:55] We survived LightShed boot camp.

[3:30] Can you guess our most played songs of 2022?

[8:25] The media sector should fire McKinsey.

[12:39] Creative teams are Disney’s lifeblood.

[15:45] Subscale SVOD players deserve to have their spending scrutinized.

[19:00] Does anyone believe that Bob Iger is leaving in two years?

[20:09] The final season of AMC Networks.

[23:41] Does Bobby Kotick want the MSFT/ATVI deal to break?

[29:35] Why carry an RSN if free on Peacock?

[31:08] Winter is coming for RSNs.

[42:21] Netflix advertising launched successfully.

[43:37] Netflix is on a content hot streak.

[45:38] Amazon’s entertainment division is one continuous reorg.

[47:45] Tesla and SpaceX do not need brands to love them but Twitter does.

[52:06] Zuck has not abandoned his core business.

[58:46] Can Apple’s Services offset iPhone's issues?

[1:03:52] How the mighty have fallen: Zuck is no longer most hated tech billionaire.

[1:05:01] It is ridiculous to applaud SBF.

[1:06:20] Songbird.

[0:00] Beat It.

[1:19] Where was Rich on Sunday night?

[6:29] Bob Chapek lost the locker room.  

[13:46] Iger’s new strategy must be different than his prior strategy.

[29:08] Is Disney’s next CEO a current employee of Disney?

[31:50] Big Tech is unlikely to receive global approval for a transformative acquisition.

[35:53] Are others engaging in Chapek’s DTC financial engineering?

[38:34] DOJ’s antitrust investigation into Ticketmaster is about political capital.

[47:45] Twitter: Everyone loves a car crash.

[50:22] Does Twitter have the financial firepower to properly invest in AI?

[58:56] Netflix evolves their games strategy as they enter social AAA titles.

[1:01:57] A Fox / News Corp. merger feels like a longshot.

[1:04:32] Amazon’s rumored theatrical investments are confusing.

[1:07:48] Will the Chinese box office rescue Avatar’s profitability?

[1:10:30] Happy Thanksgiving!

[1:11:11] Thanksgiving Prayer

[0:00] Anti-hero.

[1:05] Do you “hate listen” to the podcast?

[10:50] The “question” that stole the Liberty Investor Day.

[13:44] How does the NBA grow national media rights fees?

[20:53] Netflix and Sports? 

[25:22] Other leagues may follow the NFL’s broadcast TV playbook.

[26:38] The government should crack down on bots not LYV.

[34:19] Twitter is still working (for now).

[37:44] How does the FAA C-Band debacle still exist?

[41:00] Is Apple making the metaverse more of a priority?

[44:09] What are VR use cases?

[47:03] YouTube CTV time spent is exploding and needs more attention.

[50:02] TBD how Microsoft will handle pricing and distribution in China.

[51:00] Blizzard’s partner in China could wait for Microsoft.

[52:10] Everything seems to be going well at SoftBank!

[53:25] Has the world been digested yet?

[55:18] Newest Thanksgiving dish - Holy Ears.

[56:42] Liberty.

[0:00] Voodoo Lady.

[1:15] Nothing smells like Miami.

[4:57] Take responsibility for your crypto decisions.

[13:50] Elon is a great technologist but does not understand human beings.

[20:22] If the Twitter platform improves then advertisers will come for the eyeballs.

[22:16] Starlink already delayed.

[25:09] Is Amazon scaling back Alexa as sports/video bets increase?

[29:09] Meta’s FY23 OpEx cuts were a small olive branch to shareholders.

[32:57] Disney mismanaged investor profitability expectations.

[38:23] Diller is right, Malone is wrong on Netflix. 

[41:19] Expect Netflix to follow Apple’s sports rights playbook.

[47:53] Dramatic increases in UFC/WWE rights fees require big tech’s participation.

[50:20] When does Flutter buy-out Fox’s FanDuel option/blocking rights?

[53:45] Despite bipartisan concerns, a TikTok ban still feels unlikely.

[57:25] The music industry’s TikTok complaints feel like déjà vu all over again.

[58:27] Snap’s creator program is gaining traction.  

[58:58] Phil Spencer increasingly confident MSFT/ATVI is approved.

[1:03:14] MSGE biz could be strong post-Sphere but can they get there?

[1:06:33] Cable TV redefining the fountain of youth.  

[1:07:35] Zoloft

[0:00] Gonna Fly Now.

[2:42] The Philadelphia curse of Joe Galone.

[4:47] Tech is treating this downturn differently than previous recessions.

[7:43] Ominous signs appearing for ‘23 TV ad spend.

[11:23] Our first impressions of Netflix’s new ad tier.

[12:20]  Is a slowdown in telecom ad spend cyclical or secular?

[14:15] Live Nation an advertising and sponsorship outlier.

[19:13] Will Elon’s Twitter Blue changes enhance your experience?

[31:02]  Further delays for Dish and costly capital.

[34:07] Disney building the “utility” of Disney+.

[37:23] Why does Disney keep licensing to gaming studios?

[38:38]  Should HBO kill Max and return to HBO?

[45:05] Amazon Music pushing subs towards Apple and Spotify.

[48:18] Amazon is trying to replicate ESPN as part of the Prime bundle.

[52:03] What percentage of previously free subs will churn off of Peacock?

[53:44] Zuck’s WhatsApp update takes aim at Apple and Slack.

[55:36] Rahul Ligma will be missed at Twitter.

[57:22] Streets of Philadelphia.

.

[0:00] Twilight Zone / Runnin’ With the Devil.

[1:22] Rich was a DJ in college. Really?

[3:09] Who benefits if Twitter advertisers panic?

[5:17] Elon’s goal may be a more centrist Twitter.

[13:07] Meta forced to make core biz less profitable.

[21:46] Digital advertising weak or share shifting? 

[26:06] Phil Spencer’s mobile and subscription arguments sound like spin to close ATVI deal.

[31:02] Will Apple keep moving advertising goal posts?

[34:54] Spotify will raise price but wants an incremental margin benefit.

[37:19] Service revenue and sustainability of fixed wireless.

[44:20] Kudos to Zaslav for taking a fresh approach to the future of DC.

[47:55] Hocus Pocus 2’s Disney+ performance supports a flexible film strategy.

[50:37] Content creators can’t help themselves from helping Netflix. 

[52:11] Disney may not be a utility but superfans will still stomach higher prices.

[53:47] TCL/Amazon deal is why Roku needs to build their own TVs.

[57:31] Why is The Rock talking about a potential WWE sale?

[1:01:37] Live Nation’s stock should not have been hurt by Biden’s ticketing comments.

[1:04:34] Comcast should have never bought Sky.

[1:07:26]Tom, thanks for a great decade at Charter!

[1:08:02] Spooky.