The LightShed Podcast

[0:00] I Love You Always Forever.

[1:20] Let’s repack week one of earnings.

[6:45] Is a Fox/News Corp. merger the next season of Succession?

[13:08] Netflix’s next act: monetizing the moochers.

[18:26] YouTube time spent on connected TV is skyrocketing.

[22:25] Netflix ramping gaming efforts but creating a breakout hit is hard.

[24:45] Linear TV ads trends holding up better than digital.

[34:43] Twitter sale will go through at $54.20.

[39:30] Endeavor may want WWE but that doesn’t mean it’s for sale.

[43:05] Will Amazon outbid Turner and ESPN for NBA rights?

[45:05] All-encompassing sports DTC package isn’t economically viable for leagues.

[48:30] Roblox forces short squeeze but should stop reporting monthly.

[51:51] Fubo Gaming was always DOA.

[54:15] Zuck, Elon, Ye and China: your social platform owners.

[55:55] Karma.

[0:00] Can’t Get You Out of My Head.

[5:00] WiFi issues at the Comcast Center.

[6:25] Meta’s brand may be its biggest problem.  

[11:58] Are there VR uses cases beyond gaming? 

[13:44] Zuckerberg desperately wants to be the Metaverse OS.  

[19:28] TikTok begins music streaming push as Sony pulls out of Resso.

[21:45] Is it easier for Amazon to be TikTok than TikTok to be Amazon?

[23:57] AVOD pricing is a bundle and TAM play for Disney but just TAM for Netflix.

[29:30] Netflix advertising is starting as a scale play similar to broadcast TV.

[37:14] As long as parks are packed, Disney should keep pushing price.

[39:02] UK regulatory understands Microsoft’s true ATVI ambitions are streaming/subscription.

[42:20] Take-Two wants to be a consolidator.

[44:16] Is too much content a risk to Endeavor?

[48:10] Dish could monetize Boost.

[52:35]  Can the ESPN brand drive sports betting market share?

[54:54] Fanatics finally enters betting but TBD if they have meaningful differentiation.

[57:31] Fanatics wants to be the Fanatics of music.

[58:56] Amazon’s sports goal is to drive daily use of Prime Video.

[1:01:47] MSG is trying to recapture the trust of its shareholders.

[1:05:00] LA Clippers utilizing broadcast to help solve RSN reach issues.

[1:12:09] Unlike the concert industry, the Mets overpriced their tickets.

[1:13:05] Randy Johnson creates the new TWTR logo.

[0:00] Portland, Oregon.

[1:01] Another LightShed wedding.

[4:10] Where were you when Aaron Judge made “history”?

[7:50] Elon’s financing contingency is his newest negotiating ploy.

[13:50] What is Elon’s X?

[16:24] News outlet owners have always been accused of bias.

[20:13] Changes to Section 230 interpretations could mean major risk to tech platforms.

[26:14] Loss of older audiences is aging down Amazon’s TNF viewers.

[29:21] Could the average person define the metaverse?

[31:44] Is Instagram’s ad load increase the start of a death spiral?

[33:27] Without a TikTok ban, no relief in sight for Meta.

[38:22] TikTok’s creative dynamics insulate it from YouTube Shorts’ impact.

[41:50] Does TikTok have enough leverage to be both a music label and streaming service?

[44:49] House of the Dragon is only getting stronger.

[48:56] Will new board member help change Disney's view of ESPN?

[50:42] Streaming bundles and M&A both inevitable.

[52:53] Netflix enters the windowing biz with Knives Up.

[55:07] Charter testing bundle inertia with broadcast fee increase.

[58:47] Baseball bores Walt, football bores Tom Brady.

[59:56] You’re The Reason Our Kids Are Ugly.

[0:00] Fantastic Voyage.

[1:24] Imagining Rich’s midlife crisis.

[4:17] Has the weak global economy finally caught up with Apple?

[12:11] Is Amazon aging down the NFL?

[14:45] Was Bob Iger watching Aaron Judge live?

[17:30] New York AG’s complete misunderstanding of the TV industry.

[20:35] Warner Bros. Discovery isn't for sale (for now).

[25:31] Netflix is cutting costs, not rethinking broader strategy.

[28:56] Dahmer killing Andor.

[33:05] Inertia is the glue holding the cable bundle together.

[37:07] Is Biden’s handling of TikTok friendly or inert?

[39:04] Hulu+++.

[41:09] ] Lionsgate begging for a transaction.

[46:01] WWE ratings improvement.

[50:58] Google’s Stadia did not improve upon the console experience.

[55:45] If the MSFT deal breaks, Blizzard’s reemergence would be critical to ATVI stock.

[57:53] Can Netflix be social? 

[1:00:21] A brand’s Roblox presence must be fun to be successful.

[1:03:05] Rich shouldn’t have bought a Bored Ape after all.

[1:05:16] Meta announces hiring freeze yet legacy media still won’t discuss weaknesses.

[1:07:22] Gangsta’s Paradise.

[0:00] Bullet with Butterfly Wings.

[3:53] LightShed Dinner #2: The Roast of TMT.

[10:03] A Fubo upgrade brought to you by hopeful bankers.

[13:11] Where is the marketing machine for Aaron Judge?

[16:34] Must-See TV on Thursdays is now Amazon, not NBC.

[21:51] Tech is treating this downturn with more fear than legacy media.

[24:56] Is Meta baselessly hated or are they anti-consumer?

[28:13] Twitch’s headline was misleading; creators continue to be paid more annually.

[31:29] Will paying creators more help Shorts catch TikTok? 

[33:50] Robert Kyncl brings a UGC/creator mentality to Warner Music.

[35:36] Apple Music may be more infiltrated in our society than generally believed.

[37:49] Is Spotify’s bundled audio vision a mistake?

[44:06] GTA 6 leak changes nothing about Take-Two’s future trajectory.

[45:46] We do not know whether MSFT/ATVI gets through EU regulatory scrutiny.

[47:15] ATVI or no ATVI, Microsoft will scale gaming through acquisition.

[48:11] Can you break a major show that is exclusive to Roku?

[54:06] Consumers are watching more Netflix than investors believe. 

[59:25] We are bullish on WWE’s new content strategy.

[1:02:42] We will miss Tom Rutledge’s earnings calls.

[1:08:08] Shana Tova.

[0:00] As It Was.

[1:30] What’s the overlap between Harry Styles and LightShed Podcast listeners?

[6:46] Amazon’s first NFL broadcast was a success.

[10:42] Will channel changing friction increase Amazon’s average viewership?

[14:40] Spin or no spin, ESPN will have to cut costs.

[20:34] Disney will own 100% of Hulu.

[24:20] Verizon’s strategy if it can’t grow.

[29:40] T-Mobile's definition of big.

[31:50] Streaming consolidation is needed for broad pricing power.

[37:54] TikTok wants to be the de facto social/entertainment platform.

[39:38] Comparing Reels and TikTok usage is comparing apples and oranges.

[43:20] Roblox is a large long term opportunity but investors shouldn’t expect much in next few years.

[47:52] Disney advertising is opt out and Netflix is opt in.

[50:09] Apple needs far more kids/family content.

[54:18] Does Roku change of control actually mean anything?

[57:03] Snap could play a real role in the creator economy.

[58:50] Vision Fund: if at first (and second) you don’t succeed, try again.

[1:00:15] Happy anniversary Brandon!

[1:01:00] I’m Good (Blue).

[0:00] Another One Bites the Dust.

[1:14] Welcome Olivia!

[3:41] Rich’s redeye selfies are back.

[8:50] Why is Sunday Ticket still not done? 

[10:26] Apple, SpaceX and cold feet.

[17:28] Dish’s big win with iPhone 14.

[20:03] Bob Iger’s Twitter bot criticisms are very different than Elon’s.

[26:56] Snap has quickly built a real subscription business.

[29:56] Snap’s DR focus reaccelerating growth

[31:37] Could CFIUS remove TikTok from the US? 

[36:17] Will a pullback in streaming spend boost theatrical budgets?

[42:25] Only select streaming shows should be licensed to third parties.

[44:50] When can we STOP talking about Hulu ownership?

[47:46] Is Meta's focus on reels the reason it killed shopping?

[53:20] HBO would have released good Week 3 HOTD viewers.

[59:35] Tencent can’t improve Ubisoft’s culture.

[1:02:09] Exclusivity in kids content suddenly matters.

[1:04:55] Apple needs to invest more in its broadcasters.

[1:07:30] When will national sports rights deals follow local’s downward spiral?

[1:10:58] Fighting out of the blue corner, Mark Zuckerberg.

[1:12:20] Dancing Queen.

[0:00] The Victors.

[0:45] College football is back.

[3:43] Netflix’s first big advertising hires blend traditional TV and digital.

[6:57] Is the digital ad market mature?

[19:03] Can subscription/commerce move the needle as ad growth slows?

[24:10] What innovations will Apple showcase next week?

[29:55] Apple TV+ now included in T-Mobile’s high-end bundle.

[32:51] Will national audiences seek out Thursday Night Football?

[38:23] Will Disney Prime monetize Disney’s superfans?

[41:00] The linear TV death spiral begins.

[44:23] Does HBO content on TNT help or hurt HBO Max?

[46:33] House of the Dragon week three viewership expectations.

[50:15] Ticketmaster has an NFT use case with fan and artist utility.

[52:38] It is crazy to think that dynamic pricing should not exist.

[56:25] T-Mobile acquires more spectrum.

[58:53] DC is only part of the MSFT/ATVI regulatory picture.

[59:46] Mobile, PC, and console gaming continue to converge.

[1:01:20] Twitter must solve for an edit button’s obvious problems.

[1:03:08] Twitter’s flirtation with an OnlyFans competitor.

[1:04:14] The Red and Blue.

[0:00] Sabotage.

[3:26] Does this hotel have USA Today?

[5:51] Amazon/EA rumor debunked.

[11:05] Microsoft wants subscription exclusivity, not hardware exclusivity.

[13:12] The Law vs. Elon Musk. 

[19:45] T-Mobile and Starlink’s plan to cover wireless deadspots.

[25:38] TikTok TV should scare legacy media. 

[29:21] TikTok is the most shared link on Facebook Blue.

[31:33] House of the Dragon satisfied the community feel.

[35:00] Does the HBO Max discount increase LTV?

[38:46] Who is greenlighting films at Warner Bros. Discovery? 

[41:06] Warner Bros. Discovery film strategy less flexible than others.

[44:05] What is your favorite fast casual restaurant?

[46:26] Will NBC’s content move the Peacock needle?

[47:38] ESPN dispassionate analysis of sports rights. 

[49:31] Sports teams need tighter control of local rights as they pivot to future.

[52:00] Expect more concerts on 3D interactive platforms.

[57:07] Crazier to think AR and VR won’t be part of our lives one day than the opposite.

[1:05:22] Joe Rogan to Zuck: kids are obsessed with Snap.

[1:06:25] Albuquerque.

[0:00] Spin the Black Circle.

[1:28] Where was Rich’s post-flight selfie? 

[5:16] Escalating sports costs will bring margin pain.

[8:11] No friction to churning in streaming world.

[11:05] Sports betting industry is still worth avoiding.

[16:35] Are you watching House of the Dragon this weekend?

[21:06] Amazon TNF over/under: 12.5m viewers.

[25:22] Does a smooth TNF launch help Amazon’s Sunday Ticket bid?

[30:54] Now is the time for Chapek to make ESPN and Hulu decisions.

[34:14] MSGE spin will re-highlight existing asset value.

[39:10] Paramount+ is a good fit for Walmart’s customer.

[41:50] Walmart has major CTV ad ambitions.

[44:20] Good, better, best: Netflix wants clear differentiation between subscription tiers.

[47:10] We do not expect WWE to be shopped in the near-term.

[53:20] Ticketmaster moat prevents scaled competitors.

[56:46] TikTok noise level continue to build.

[59:57] Investors need to pay attention to Embracer Group… from Sweden.

[1:03:05] 74% of how many Bally Sports+ subs?

[1:07:58] Dr. Malone is WBD’s Wizard of Oz.

[1:13:02] Dear Apes: Adam Aron is going to dilute you.

[1:15:27] What Time is It?