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Geopolitical disruptions, wars, sanctions, OPEC+ production cuts and even the weather have all added tonne-mile demand at a point when fleet growth is at a record low.

We are living through something of a golden age of tankers right now and certainly nobody is expecting anything particularly untoward to hit the positive sentiment until at least 2026. Beyond that though things get interesting and what’s happening now in terms of tanker orders flooding in will ultimate determine whether 2027 is a downward swing or a crash.

Because, while things are admittedly looking pretty rosy right now for the energy shipping markets, the risks are far from removed.

If the fleet supply inefficiencies caused by the redirection of Russian oil exports away from Europe, primarily east of Suez, were to suddenly evaporate we would be looking at a very different picture.

The wider market remains delicately poised with positive and negative drivers so far largely offsetting one another

And let’s not forget OPEC.

The cartel has installed production cuts since November 2022 to artificially buoy oil prices. Analysts estimate Opec+ has about 6mn b/d of spare capacity it can unleash on to global markets to lower prices if they spike into the triple digits to prevent demand destruction.

To guide you through the current state of affairs in the tanker sector Andrew Wilson, Head of Research and Consultancy Services at BRS shipbrokers talks to Lloyd’s List editor-in-chief Richard Meade.