The Long Hill Report

It was noted that the midterms are coming, what does thatmean? The Dems should win big. That does not mean much as the Dems don’t like Trumpbut are not effectively opposing his goofy war.

How can one effectively oppose goofy candidates. In Ireland,they spoiled the vote.

Alexis de Tocqueville was right. We get second raters as candidates.Our office holders start out mediocre and then deteriorate. Maybe a littleoverboard, but we are not in a good space.

A lesson in power.

September is historically worst month, was so this year. Nohighs, Dow under 51,000.

In economics, you can prove anything.

We are still positive so far, but not good lately.  Looking forward to fourth quarter.

Rates up, is that too much?

NY Fed, rates are up due to tariffs and War in Iran. Yathink?

Other thoughts arrived.

Keep checking gas buddy. That and heating oil, people willsuffer.

Alternatives are there, but not cheap.

More reasons not to vote.

Technicals improved. Nothing says it is all okay.

Rates will rise next meeting is a good probability. Overseasraising rates.

If you had been a contrarian after 911, you would’ve donewell.

Living in the present.

Red Sox lost in the wild card, so markets will go up?

Yankees eliminated, a plus.

Employment doing okay, but stagflation coming?

Slowing inflation will be necessary.

Central banking always chasing something.

Augustwas not the craziest month, but maybe not the sanest with a yield surge, gasover $5, Looks like a fed increase coming.

Trump istalking a five grand bribe to every citizen, is it an effort to keep the houseand senate,

Mikegoes over the Trump promises kept.

Nothingchanged.

Ourreflection on the Turkish Central Bank crazy rates and now it is a responsiblenation.

Ourally, but an enemy of another ally. Our foreign policy is silly.

Marketup, how much is it inflation, how much growth?

Can Warshdo a rate increase. Good chance looking at the rest of the board.

Goodobservation from Mike that sometimes when they do something that does not work,they follow it up with something even more bizzare.

Democratsare not going to the wall in any serious way. Rallying for dim bulb Markey inmass was silliness.

Mike,like most see Dem gains, but how much?

Afterour digression on the greater world, Mike goes through the month in markets.

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Gas prices going up. Checking Gas Buddy a lot.Is the war on or off.Will August be a good month. Historically not always so.Warsh not getting off to a great start as first two pressers see a 1% Dow dip.

We start with a few observations, and Mike sums it up well:“just when you think things are really crazy, they become crazier.” Maine thehome of interesting tattoos, Mitch McConnell…Wake up.

Congress is cosplay.

We were proved right that the MOU is pantomime.

Mike is amazed the market is great with the war.

We keep going up on the indexes. How much is inflation?

Is it a paradigm shift, AI? All good short term, what isreally the next thing.

Mike uses AI because he is kinda being forced to. E.g incommunicating with the home office. The human is gone and the voice comes on.Forget coding, get a trade.

Wall Street is a big Democrat Party organization, per Mike.

And more whether you want it or not.

Kinda at war/not at war. Will there be peace. Mike ain’t sure, neither am I. July is coming and it is crunch time in the strait for more than oil.Mike’s word “amazing” as to what does not make sense. A war, May historically not great, but this year we are have a good fifth month.Dow up, of course mean old Richard always bring up inflation.The world’s first trillionaire arose.Mike said a mouthful, “it’s getting harder to explain.”Generally, the market looks ahead, according to Mike and the powers that be are seeing or hoping for a settling down.Midterms?Dems don’t say anything real like War Powers Act, 25th Amendment or impeachment. Kinda some fakery on all sides?Mike sees Dems just saying eh? For the time being. Not a good look for the Dems.Mike: Market looking to that proverbial future happening in November.Technicals: June looks okay, but there is weakening. Stochastic Oscillator might say it.Space X big stuff but we are just at the beginning, and Mike thinks it’s going down after buying momentum is over.Fed meets new chair, probably no change.Warsh got only 54 votes. Reflection on Trump?Mike has a wait and see with Warsh. He might ditch press conferences, Mike not okay.Other country banks increase rates.Oil being drilled.Inflation is not good. How much is the inflation in other areas also oil?Can Warsh keep credibility?Trump pledged his love for inflation.Leading indicators down as usual, job creation okay.Not time to cut rates. Let’s hear from Warsh?The world did not end.

At war without being at war. Operation Epic Fury gone.Project Freedom ballyhooed, then pause.

Little Marco out of a loop.

What’s our goal-status quo ante.

25th Amendment, impeachment? Something is wrong.

Mike plays a doctor on TV.

Doing nothing was the right thing.

Iran is not amused.

Mike’s report on the market: he’s lovin’ it.

The market is not the real world.

Mike says April is historically the best month, and in thisweird world, this April was great in this not real world. Gotta have somethingbad to get something good.

“Sell in May, and go away, come back on Halloween day,” isan old market adage. There is a reason.

We look at the Technicals and they say nothing dramatic.

Warsh coming on to be the big guy at the Fed. Governors sendmessage.

Nothing on Central Bank rates other than Norway raising.Middle East is rationale. Not a shock.

Oil fell to 85 but not end of story as everything is day today.

Was Venezuela a hint?

If we are energy self-sufficient, why is the price going up?

We are topping’ off all the time.

Mike reporting a surge in inflation. Leading indicatorsdown.

Layoffs down, means there are less people to lay off.

Labor force shrunk as folks get laid off and stop lookingfor work.

Where do they go? Mike optimistic but not predictingnirvana.

Our March meeting and a lot of history is going on. The US started a war, and it started it with a murder. We are at war at the behest of another country.Fill that tank up quickly as the prices are rising at the barrel and the pump.It’s a war we did not have to do.Mike loves the Dow, and why shouldn’t he as it’s always up…or was.Now it’s down. The cause, we all know.On the Long Hill Report, Conversations with, we are basically a discussion of the previous month, and it was not bad, considering that February is usually kind of a downer.February saw the first Dow close over 50,000 (and maybe the last).All cancelled now!How will it all end. Will it be our biggest victory since Grenada. Will there be a big victory in Iran parade.The administration does not have a long attention span.Mike was able to come up with some history that’s not to bad. March does have big swings, as we are seeing.And so we had some back and forth, Mike had a chance to go down in history and blew it.Next month, we will have more gallows humor.

Bitcoin dives, gold and silver slide.

The Armada goes to Iran, not to close. The Armada in historymight not be the term he wants.

Trump and hyperbole is getting old. Does not sound sane. Isit 25th Amendment time?

Should we have done it to Biden.

As to the market, January was great, with four highs.

What is the Dow at this point. It ain’t the old days.

Inflation is not good, employment is problematic.

See ya next month.

Lotsa news. Maduro seized...constitutional? Trump want Greenland. Senator Tillis... it's nuts.But markets doing well as Mike knows but can't explain, but gives it a try.Watch out for the mid-terms.Oil price not moving.Touch and go, we had the Santa Claus Rally.Yard sale coming at the White House per Mike.Interest rates coming down. Venezuela has highest.Inflation confusing as reports old.Be positive make money.Mike looks at financials and employment.see ya next month.

Dow at another high, Mike happy. Dow of course ain’t what it used to be.¼ point down, with Powell blaming the tariffs for anything bad, self-serving and dig at Trump.Who can figure him out.12 Billion Farm bill.Big manufacturing boom?Won’t miss all the independent agencies.November is historically best month, this year not shabby.December is 2nd best historically, and looking for Santa Claus rally. let’s watch.Mikes okay with the year.On to looking at technicals, Major News, Interest Rates and other news.