Wall Street indices have – surprisingly - been very resilient in the past few days despite signs that rate cuts might not coming as soon as the market thought. But today’s March inflation data may be the straw that broke the camel’s back.

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Investors are anxiously awaiting Wednesday’s key inflation data from the US and Thursday’s European Central Bank's interest rate decision. They want to refine their rate cuts forecast after receiving confirmation from recent data and Fed official speeches that the road to monetary policy easing will not be a smooth one. 

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Investors have long been obsessed with monetary policy, but it's clear that they're becoming less and less concerned, hypnotized by the strength of the US economy. This is the general mood in mid-April, as we await the arrival this week of the first set of quarterly corporate results.

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The words of central bankers are always gospel to investors. The problem is that there have been some conflicting messages lately. The release of monthly US employment data this morning was eagerly expected by investors, who hoped it would help clear the air. 

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It seems that the US job market is cooling according to the latest data, and investors might take this as a sign that a rate cut in June is getting likelier. They also took comfort in some comments from Jerome Powell yesterday.

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The mood is changing on stock markets, with global indices turning red since the start of April due to worries about the path of rate cuts this year. Things could take a turn for the worse today as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak.

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Wall Street opened in the red this morning, weighed down by health insurers. Investors are also reassessing their scenarios for rate cuts this year after Jerome Powell’s speech, and await more economic data and comments from Fed officials.

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Today is the final trading session of the week for the Western stock markets and Wall Street opened mixed due to better-than-expected economic data. Indeed, a strong economy lessens the need for rate cuts, which investors are not too happy about.

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Today's session is likely to be a bit calm, before things get a bit more serious on Thursday and Friday, when the final US GDP reading for the final quarter of 2023, the latest US employment data and PCE inflation will be unveiled, followed by a speech from Jerome Powell.

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Equity markets are experiencing their first seasonal trough of the year. This usually happens between two earnings periods. Companies have almost finished unveiling their 2023 figures. The cycle will pick up again in the second week of April with US financials such as BlackRock and JPMorgan, whose releases are due on April 11 and 12. 

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