With the economy and inflation bending but not breaking, despite rising key interest rates, financial markets ended the first half of the year with solid, if not exceptional, performances. Will the second-half be just as good, or should we run away? 

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Again, investors were reminded of the determination of Western central banks to raise rates at the ECB conference in Portugal yesterday. And this time, they couldn't care less. And some good news today proved them right. Inflation dropped more than expected in the US and Europe.

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Yesterday, Wall Street struggled to sustain the rebound seen on Tuesday, but overall investors are becoming less nervous, slowly accepting that more central banks will remain hawkish for longer. Comments made by central bankers at their meeting in Sintra did not affect indices. 

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Green has returned to Wall Street and global indices thanks to upbeat US economic data. The resilience of US consumer spending has led to renewed optimism. It seems that the much-talked about recession – which for a year was supposed to be imminent - is not coming to America anytime soon. The economic outlook is still uncertain, but not dire, and investors have now come to terms that a few more rate hikes are on the way. 

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Investors are feeling a bit lost and don’t really know which way to go. Wall Street opened in the green yesterday, before closing lower. Investors are taking a wait-and-see attitude ahead of a new flurry of statistics today, which will put the spotlight on American consumer spending. Meanwhile, hopes of a an economic stimulus in China are slowly rising.

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The mood is changing on financial markets, after inflation returned with a vengeance, making investors’ life difficult and forcing central bankers to maintain a punitive approach to interest rates. The latest economic statistics are clearly bad, raising the specter of recession or, in the worst-case scenario, stagflation. The week ahead will offer more clues, with a raft of macroeconomic indicators scheduled and a flurry of speeches by central bankers.

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US markets bounced back yesterday, driven by tech stocks, but it’s clear that uncertainty and doubts are creeping in. Investors almost felt that the fight against inflation was behind them, but it is becoming increasingly clear that it isn’t the case. Central bankers can’t help but tell them " we told you so".

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Investor sentiment is deteriorating this week, with the accumulation of signals that inflation may not be behind us. Today, many central banks are releasing their rate decision, sometimes in spectacular fashion.

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Futures on the main Wall Street indexes were slightly down today after investor sentiment took a few hits, including a lack of new stimulus from China, sticky inflation data in Britain and a drop in European real estate. And of course, investors are awaiting the start of a two-day testimony from U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Investors are awaiting questions about whether rates will rise again in July and peak in a 5.5% to 5.75% range as expected.

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Investors are still closely watching any data that could influence the Fed’s next monetary policy decision, after June’s pause in rate hikes. They also don’t want to see the economy slip into recession. And the latest housing data just gave them hope.

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