The Markets Daily

Two of our markets research analysts are immersed in the writings of Nassim Taleb. Fooled by Randomness is their reading of choice, though the focus of my commentary today is another of Taleb’s paper’s on uncertainty - Antifragile.

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Mickey Mouse made his screen debut on this day 72 years ago. A much-loved character, his rounded ears and quirky sayings feature on everything from lunch boxes to designer jewellery....

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It is a well-known adage in financial markets to “buy low, sell high”, but timing, timing can be everything, especially for investors with shorter horizons.

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As I read through the global and domestic news, including covid updates, I really felt that was reading the same story, more or less, that I have been reading all year. Themes that continue to dominate include the spread of covid-19, Brexit negotiations and US elections, closer to home, it is the pandemic and corruption related news. What has changed – well, the date, and a bit more.

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Superstition and fallacy can be used interchangeably, so the English language dictates. I’m no expert. To quote Korben Dallas from the 1997 Science Fiction film, “I only speak two languages, English and bad English.” I thought you might appreciate the popular movie reference at the end of another tiresome week. Friday the 13th is thought to be unlucky in Western superstition.

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Author Tom Robbins wrote that “Normality is the great neurosis of civilization.” That rings true for a society upended by a crushing global pandemic. South Africans have longed for a pre-covid reality, however abnormal.

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The 11th of November is well known across much of the world as Remembrance Day – it marks the cessation of WW1 hostilities in 1918. Although it took about seven more months before the war was officially over, marked by the signing of the Treaty of Versailles.

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Markets began this week riding on the crest of a wave of euphoria – the domestic bourse was steered back to near its opening levels for 2020, with the All-Share Index up over 1.6% at Monday’s closing, European markets showed even greater euphoria with the German DAX increasing 4.9% and France’s CAC-40 up over 7.5%.

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"It's time to put away the harsh rhetoric, lower the temperature, see each other again ... we have to stop treating our opponents like enemies." Not the abrasive presidential rhetoric that we’ve become accustom to over the last four years.

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Slow and steady wins the race. Anyone with a social media account, access to a newspaper, radio or inside of a bubblegum wrapper would know by now that Joe Biden is just shy of 7 votes to win the presidential seat (that number could well change by the time you read this commentary).

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