The Markets Daily

The blues have taken Michigan and Wisconsin with a slim lead in Nevada placing Joe Biden within paddling distance of the White House. The blue wave will likely break before the steps of Capitol Hill with Senate leaning toward the GOP amid a strong push by Republican incumbents.

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Global focus remains squarely on US elections. Relative to previous elections, we are likely to be waiting for a while yet before a final result is called. President Trump has won a number of traditionally Republican States, while Joe Biden has scooped traditional Democrat strongholds.

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It is a quiet day for data releases which is a good thing, as all focus will be on the west – today is, at long last, US election day. Interestingly, around 97 million early votes have already been cast - apparently equivalent to about 70% of the total number of votes cast in the 2016 elections.

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Lady Liberty and Uncle Sam are common personifications of America, used during war times to garner allegiance and coax individuals into serving their nation. Over time, the characterisations of loyalty have changed but the message has remained the same...

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My grandad owned a fruit and vegetable shop, which meant that much of my formative years were spent watching my elders carve pumpkins into quarters for sale. Sculpting menacing faces into flat white pumpkins or habit squash (common to SA) was a most bizarre practise for us.

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Madiba, Samuel Coleridge and the Gospel according to John inspired various anecdotes and teachings in yesterday’s high-risk, mini-Budget address. The almost one-hour discourse interrupted by sporadic echoing of microphones and the occasional jeer was a stark reminder that the hurdle to success is high.

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The long wait ends today. The confluence of event risk, entailing the release of the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), US elections and a pretty hard deadline for Brexit negotiations begins today when Minister Tito Mboweni delivers SA’s budget update this afternoon.

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Two days in a row the US has recorded new covid-19 cases at over 80,000 people – a significant spike after the recent low, on 10 September, of just over 23,000 new infections. Alongside the rising infection rates in Europe, and rapidly decreasing probability of a US stimulus deal before the US elections (next week), markets have turned quite strongly negative.

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Consternation – a most fitting description of market positioning ahead of the mini-budget on Wednesday and highly-contested US elections on 3 November amid a surge in early voting. We’ve discussed these topics ad nauseum but cannot discount their importance despite our fatigue.

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We’ve recently had repairs done to our home. A necessary, albeit, noisy and costly facelift. Our parents warned us of the perils of owning a house. “Constant maintenance” they said, “it takes more than love to keep the walls standing” they said. Little did we know… they were right.

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