The Mining Insider

Today on The Mining Insider:

Agnico Eagle has announced a C$14 billion (~US$10 billion) investment in Ontario gold operations by 2030, including C$2 billion for the Detour Lake underground expansion and the Upper Beaver gold-copper project. It is one of the largest private sector mining capital commitments in Ontario's history.

The Metals Company signed a commercial agreement with Dutch offshore contractor Allseas to design and deploy the first commercial deep-sea nodule recovery system in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone. TMC stock rose 13.9% on the news. NOAA has confirmed full compliance on TMC's 65,000 km2 application and a final permit is expected before end of Q1 2027. TMC Q1 2026 results call is today at 4:30 PM Eastern.

Copper broke through $14,106 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange as sulfuric acid shortages — caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure — now directly hit DRC and Zambian copper producers. China's April refined copper output fell 3% month-over-month. Scotiabank revised its 2027 global copper deficit forecast to 350,000 tonnes.

The Yindjibarndi Aboriginal Corporation is considering an appeal of the Federal Court ruling ordering Fortescue to pay A$150 million (~US$108M). Legal experts called the award — just 8 cents on the $1.8B sought — methodologically flawed. The WA Mining Act confirmed tenement holders, not the state, bear full liability. Parties reconvene June 22.

Sources: Mining.com, Seeking Alpha, The Metals Company investor releases, TradingKey, FX Leaders, Bloomberg, Scotiabank, ABC Australia, Waatea News.

Today on The Mining Insider:

The April Consumer Price Index came in at 3.8 percent year-over-year — one tenth above consensus — driven by energy costs surging 17.9 percent annually. Gold fell below $4,700 an ounce after the release and Fed rate hike odds climbed to roughly 30 percent by year-end per CME Group. For miners, the print confirms input cost pressures are not easing.

Copper briefly touched $14,000 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange on Monday, within 3.5 percent of the January all-time high. The International Copper Study Group now forecasts a 150,000-tonne deficit for 2026 — driven by Grasberg delays, Escondida and Collahuasi disruptions, and ongoing sulfuric acid shortages.

In Peru, leftist Roberto Sanchez is heading into a June 7 runoff against Keiko Fujimori after the first-round vote. Sanchez has pledged to rewrite the constitution, raise mining taxes, and phase out open-pit mining. Business confidence has fallen to a two-year low; Barclays has turned underweight on Peruvian bonds. Mining investment at roughly $6 billion per year is at risk.

And in Australia, a Federal Court ordered Fortescue to pay $108 million to the Yindjibarndi people of Western Australia for damage to sacred sites — described by legal experts as the largest native title compensation ruling in Australian mining history.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC, Kitco, Reuters, Mining.com, International Copper Study Group, Barclays, GEM Mining Consulting, US News and World Report.

Today on The Mining Insider:

Fertilizer giant Mosaic has pulled nearly two million tonnes of US phosphate production off the market and withdrawn its full-year output forecast, citing runaway input costs driven by the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The company posted a Q1 net loss of $258 million — well below the $71.5 million profit analysts had expected.

Meanwhile, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases April CPI at 8:30 AM Eastern today. Markets are pricing in a 3.7 percent year-over-year print. Gold closed Monday at $4,748 an ounce after a 3.7 percent weekly rally — this single number could decide whether that momentum holds or reverses.

And in Britain, Cornish Metals is in a race against the clock. The company secured $210 million in bonds to restart the South Crofty tin mine — the highest-grade undeveloped tin deposit in the world. That bond only settles if Cornish raises at least $161 million in equity by May 21.

Sources: Bloomberg, Mining.com, The Western Producer, FX Empire, International Tin Association, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Today on The Mining Insider: Barrick Mining released Q1 2026 results before market open — one of its strongest quarters on record. Gold production of 719,000 oz beat guidance of 640,000–680,000 oz by 5.7%. Three drivers: Nevada Gold Mines strong underground performance, Veladero higher throughput/grades, and Loulo-Gounkoto in Mali ramping faster than guided. Revenue $5.22B (+67% YoY). Adjusted EPS $0.98 (consensus was $0.74 — 32% beat). Operating cash flow $2.55B. Attributable free cash flow $1.21B (+195% YoY). Gold AISC $1,708/oz (below guidance mid-point of $1,760–$1,950). Board authorized $3B share buyback, citing value ahead of planned North American Barrick IPO. Quarterly dividend $0.175/share. Q2 guidance: 730,000–770,000 oz. Full-year guidance unchanged.

On Iran: Trump called Iran's latest peace response "totally unacceptable." Iran rejected US demands to dismantle its nuclear program or cease enrichment for 20 years, instead offering gradual Hormuz reopening while keeping nuclear program and demanding blockade removal. Brent crude surged 2.69% to $104/bbl. Gold fell 0.6% to $4,689. Silver -0.8%. Ceasefire technically intact but drones struck cargo vessel in Qatari waters, UAE intercepted Iranian drones, Kuwait activated defenses. For miners: diesel still up 30–70%, LNG +30%, freight +40%, explosives/cyanide +10%. April CPI Tuesday.

And Bloomberg reported Sunday that China's domestic gold production fell 3.27% YoY in Q1 2026, even as investor bar/coin demand surged. Aging mines, grade depletion, rising extraction costs, tighter permitting. China becoming more import-dependent — a demand anchor for non-Chinese producers.

NOTE: Audio not available for this episode due to ElevenLabs quota exhaustion (35 credits remaining, 1,973 required). This is the third consecutive day with quota failure. Narration text saved in package file.

Stories Covered:

1. Barrick Q1 2026 — 719,000 oz gold, $0.98 EPS, $1.21B FCF (+195%), $3B buyback, North American IPO progressing

2. Iran talks collapse — Trump "totally unacceptable," Brent $104, gold $4,689, Hormuz closed

3. China gold output -3.27% YoY Q1 2026 while investor demand surges

Commodities: Gold, copper, oil, silver

Jurisdictions: Global (Barrick), Iran/Middle East, China

Today on The Mining Insider: The week ended with Iran still reviewing a 14-point US peace proposal submitted through Pakistani intermediaries. Trump said Friday the conflict "is not over yet" and the US Navy fired on Iranian ships attempting to breach the Hormuz blockade, pushing oil prices higher. Gold closed above $4,700/oz and silver above $80/troy oz. For miners, the equation is direct: Hormuz closed means diesel +30-70%, LNG +30%, freight +40%, and Gold Fields put a $40-50/oz AISC hit at $100/bbl oil. A Hormuz deal would reverse that chain — lower oil, cooler inflation, room for Fed rate cuts, compressed real yields, and restored gold upside. Barrick reports Q1 Monday and April CPI arrives Tuesday.

Separately, The Metals Royalty Company (Nasdaq: TMCR) — a royalty spinoff from The Metals Company — has agreed to buy a 1% gross overriding royalty on Mesabi Metallics' iron ore project in Nashwauk, Minnesota for $132.5 million. The project is 93% complete, carries a $10 billion US Export-Import Bank commitment, and is targeting first output of direct-reduction-grade steel pellets in H2 2026. Full capacity: up to 8.5 million tonnes per year, 23-year mine life. TMCR expects up to $13M in annual royalty income at full production. Essar Group (India) has invested $2 billion+ to date.

And Argentina's government has published a 10-year minerals export target of $32.7 billion in combined lithium and copper revenues, with a 49% jump in mining exports projected for 2026 alone. Argentina is now the world's third-largest lithium producer. President Milei's elimination of capital controls, permitting streamlining, and area openings have accelerated investment. Copper projects Josemaria Resources and MARA (backed by Glencore and Newmont) carry $4-6 billion in capex each and represent supply the market is counting on in the late 2020s.

NOTE: Audio not available for this episode due to ElevenLabs quota exhaustion (56 credits remaining, 2,237 required). Narration text saved in package file. Audio can be added manually once credits are restored.

Stories Covered:

1. US-Iran standoff — 14-point proposal pending, gold $4,700+, silver $80+, Hormuz confrontation

2. TMCR $132.5M Minnesota iron ore royalty — Mesabi Metallics, DR-grade pellets, 93% complete, Ex-Im Bank backed

3. Argentina $32.7B minerals decade — lithium/copper, 49% 2026 jump, Milei deregulation, Josemaria + MARA copper

Commodities: Gold, silver, oil, iron ore, lithium, copper

Jurisdictions: United States (Minnesota), Argentina, Iran

Today on The Mining Insider: PT Freeport Indonesia has confirmed the full restart of the Grasberg Block Cave copper mine in Central Papua has been pushed to early 2028 — a full year later than prior guidance. Operations are currently running at 40-50% of capacity. The company is targeting 65% in H2 2026, 80% by mid-2027, near-full by end-2027, and full capacity in early 2028. 2026 copper guidance for Grasberg has been cut from 1 billion pounds to 700,000 pounds. The September 2025 mudflow that killed seven workers and deposited 800,000 metric tons of wet material into the underground mine workings remains the root cause of the extended recovery.

Separately, China Railway Resources Universal Limited (CRRU) has presented a proposal to the DRC government to develop a major new copper-cobalt complex in the Grand Kasai region using assets held by state miner MIBA. Projected capacity: 200,000-500,000 tonnes of copper per year with a 250-500 MW integrated energy component. Presented to the DRC Mines Ministry on May 6 and described by Minister Kabamba as a major strategic project receiving the personal attention of President Tshisekedi. Key parameters — resource estimates, capex, timeline — remain undisclosed.

And the United States and South Africa held their highest-level bilateral minerals meeting of the year in Johannesburg on Wednesday, with ~25 officials from both sides present alongside ~20 mining and banking executives. The US delegation included officials from Treasury, State, Commerce, Defense, and Energy, plus the Ex-Im Bank and DFC. The focus was on PGMs, chromium, manganese, vanadium, and rare earths — South Africa is the US's dominant supplier of platinum, rhodium, chromium, and military-grade vanadium. The Phalaborwa rare earths project (DFC-backed, $50M equity) was cited as a priority. A project priority list is being developed.

NOTE: Audio not available for this episode due to ElevenLabs quota exhaustion. Episode published as text-only. Resume audio production when credits are topped up.

Stories Covered:

1. Freeport Grasberg — full restart pushed to early 2028, production at 40-50%, 2026 copper guidance cut from 1B to 700,000 lb

2. China Railway / MIBA — 200,000-500,000 t/yr copper-cobalt proposal, Grand Kasai, DRC

3. US-South Africa minerals talks — Johannesburg, highest-level bilateral meeting 2026, PGMs, rare earths, Phalaborwa

Commodities: Copper, cobalt, platinum group metals, rhodium, chromium, manganese, vanadium, rare earths

Jurisdictions: Indonesia, DRC, South Africa, United States, China

Today on The Mining Insider: Cornish Metals has closed a $210 million Nordic bond offering to fund construction of South Crofty in Cornwall, England — the highest-grade undeveloped tin deposit in the world. The six-year bonds carry a 13.5% fixed coupon and were significantly oversubscribed. CEO Don Turvey says the company expects to be fully funded and to announce a final investment decision this summer, with first tin concentrate production targeted for mid-2028. The project would be potentially the first primary tin producer in Europe or North America, at a time when approximately two-thirds of global tin supply comes from China, Myanmar, and Indonesia. The US Export-Import Bank has issued a non-binding letter of interest for up to $225 million tied to future US tin exports.

Separately, mining has resumed at Guinea's Simandou Blocks 1 and 2 after the Baowu Winning Simandou Consortium ended a labor dispute by agreeing to apply Guinea's national mining pay framework. Talks on worker classifications continue through May 20. Simandou, the world's largest untapped high-grade iron ore deposit, delivered its first shipment to China in April.

And Gold Fields reported Q1 2026 all-in sustaining costs of $1,829/oz — up 13% — as the Iran war drives diesel prices up 30-70%, LNG up 30%, and freight costs up 40% across its global operations. The company estimates a $40-$50/oz portfolio impact at $100/bbl oil and maintained full-year guidance while warning costs could exceed the range if oil rises further. Gold prices rebounded toward $4,700/oz on reports of a potential US-Iran peace memorandum.

Stories Covered:

1. Cornish Metals — South Crofty $210M bond, FID summer 2026, production mid-2028, 4,700t tin/yr, 14-year mine life, AISC lowest quartile ($14,461/t)

2. Simandou Blocks 1 & 2 — Labor stoppage ends, Guinea national pay framework accepted, talks through May 20

3. Gold Fields Q1 2026 — AISC $1,829/oz (+13%), Iran war energy shock, $40-50/oz impact at $100 oil, gold rebounds on deal hopes

Commodities: Tin, iron ore, gold, oil

Jurisdictions: United Kingdom, Guinea, South Africa, United States, China, Myanmar, Indonesia

Today on The Mining Insider: Ivanhoe Mines released its Q1 2026 financial results after market close on Wednesday. Kamoa-Kakula delivered $862 million in revenue and $397 million in EBITDA — a 46% EBITDA margin — and beat the low end of its C1 cash cost guidance at $2.58 per pound, compared with guidance of $2.60 to $3.00. The headline net loss of $2 million was driven entirely by a $183 million DRC tax settlement, not operating performance. Kipushi produced a record 65,044 tonnes of zinc in Q1. Platreef secured financial close on its $700 million Phase 2 project finance facility on April 30. And founder Robert Friedland described the Makoko copper discovery in the Western Forelands as "an emerging giant in the making." Separately, G7 trade ministers concluded a two-day meeting in Paris on May 6 with a joint communiqué pledging to ensure that attempts to "weaponize" critical mineral dependencies will fail — while underlying differences between the EU, US, and Japan on approach remain visible. And on the US copper tariff front, the Commerce Department faces a June 2026 deadline to deliver its report on the domestic copper market to the President — a prerequisite for a proposed 15% copper tariff set to take effect in January 2027, rising to 30% in January 2028.

Stories Covered:

- Ivanhoe Q1 2026: Kamoa $862M revenue, $397M EBITDA (46% margin), C1 $2.58/lb (below guidance), $183M DRC tax write-down drives headline loss, Kipushi record 65,044t zinc, Platreef $700M Phase 2 close, Makoko "emerging giant"

- G7 Paris communiqué: minerals weaponization pledge, EU vs US vs Japan approach divergence, Canada C$18B in 12 countries

- US copper tariff: Commerce report due June 2026, 15% tariff January 2027, 30% January 2028

Commodities: Copper, zinc, platinum group metals, sulphuric acid, gold

Jurisdictions: DRC, South Africa, Canada, France, United States, Germany, Japan, Italy, UK

Today on The Mining Insider: Sibanye-Stillwater launched tender offers on May 6 to retire all $675 million outstanding of its 4% senior notes due 2026 — a full any-and-all offer — and up to $75 million of its 4.5% notes due 2029 at $962.50 per $1,000, funded by a new dollar-denominated bond issuance. The 2026 notes are set to settle May 15. The move is part of Sibanye's multi-year restructuring following the collapse of platinum group metal prices and comes one week after the fatal Kloof 8 shaft accident. Separately, a research note from Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy published May 5 documents copper smelter treatment and refining charges falling to negative $90 per tonne in the spot market in March 2026. Antofagasta agreed to zero TC/RCs for 2026. Glencore's Philippines smelter has already been halted. The US has only two active copper smelters remaining — Rio Tinto's Garfield facility in Utah and Freeport-McMoRan's Miami operation in Arizona. Authors Kevin Brunelli and Dr. Tom Moerenhout recommend production tax credits, modernization grants, and a TC/RC price floor mechanism. And Pan American Silver reported Q1 2026 results: $488 million in free cash flow, a record $1.8 billion in cash and short-term investments, and a $91.79 per ounce realized silver price. Full-year guidance of 25-27 million ounces silver reaffirmed.

Stories Covered:

- Sibanye tender offer: $675 million 4% 2026 notes retired, up to $75 million 2029 notes, new bond issuance, settlement May 15

- Western copper smelter crisis: TC/RCs at negative $90/tonne March 2026, Antofagasta 2026 benchmark at $0, Glencore Philippines halted, US down to 2 active smelters

- Pan American Silver Q1 2026: $488 million FCF, $1.8 billion cash, $91.79/oz silver realized, guidance reaffirmed

Commodities: Silver, gold, copper, platinum group metals, rhodium

Jurisdictions: South Africa, United States, Canada, Philippines, Namibia, Japan, Chile

Today on The Mining Insider: Regis Resources and Vault Minerals announced a 100% all-scrip merger creating a combined company with a pro forma market cap of approximately A$10.7 billion (US$7.67 billion) — Australia's third-largest primary ASX-listed gold producer. The merged group will produce over 700,000 ounces per year from five Western Australian assets, entering life debt-free with A$1.9 billion in cash and projected annual free cash flow of A$1.7 billion. CEO Jim Beyer of Regis will lead the combined company; deal completion is targeted August-September 2026. Separately, Sibanye-Stillwater reported two employees killed on Sunday during a routine inspection of the Kloof 8 shaft in South Africa — a platform carrying the workers detached from the main winder conveyance and plunged uncontrolled down the shaft. The Kloof complex contributes approximately 14% of Sibanye's gold output. Shares fell 2.6%. And Barrick Mining's flagship Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan's Balochistan province is under board-level capital allocation review following the Baloch Liberation Army's January 2026 coordinated attacks across nine districts. Barrick CEO Mark Bristow confirmed the review. Barrick has committed $7 billion to the project; the U.S. Export-Import Bank has committed $1.25 billion as part of Washington's strategy to build copper supply chains outside China.

Stories Covered:

- Regis Resources + Vault Minerals: A$10.7B merger, 700,000+ oz gold/year, debt-free, A$1.9B cash, completion August-September 2026

- Sibanye-Stillwater Kloof 8 fatalities: Two workers killed in shaft platform accident, operations halted, 14% of gold output suspended, shares -2.6%

- Barrick Reko Diq capital review: BLA Balochistan attacks, Barrick $7B commitment under board review, US Exim Bank $1.25B at stake

Commodities: Gold, copper

Jurisdictions: Australia (Western Australia), South Africa, Pakistan (Balochistan), Canada, United States