The Mining Insider

Iran fired ballistic missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain on Tuesday — the most serious direct military exchange yet. Iranian missiles aimed at Kuwait disintegrated mid-flight; those targeting US Navy 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain were intercepted. US Central Command struck an Iranian ground control station on Qeshm Island. The IRGC stated: 'We had previously cautioned that any act of aggression would elicit a distinct and more intense response.' Trump told ABC News: 'I think you're talking about over the next week' for a deal. Iranian inflation reached 77.2% in May. Pakistan is mediating a 60-day ceasefire extension framework.

Goldman Sachs raised its year-end copper target by more than 10% to $13,735/tonne (from $12,465), citing supply disruptions at Grasberg (Indonesia) and Kamoa-Kakula (DRC) — cutting global mine supply forecasts by 350,000 tonnes and estimating neither mine reaches full capacity before 2028. Goldman's ex-US copper deficit estimate grew tenfold to 640,000 tonnes. Citigroup called for $14,500/tonne this month and $15,000/tonne within a year. Copper is trading just below $14,000/tonne on the London Metal Exchange, ~$500 shy of the January record. HSBC warned of a commodities 'super-squeeze' from Hormuz closure.

Northern Star Resources' board responded to Elliott Investment Management's activist campaign, stating it 'welcomed constructive dialogue' and confirming it 'regularly reviews corporate opportunities with adviser Goldman Sachs, including portfolio management and potential mergers or acquisitions.' Shares surged nearly 14% to A$21.03 — the stock's biggest gain in more than six years. CEO Stuart Tonkin is stepping down. Elliott holds ~4% (~A$1B) and is pushing for a formal strategic review including potential sale.

Three of Zambia's major copper smelters — Nchanga (Vedanta/KCM, 60-day shutdown), Mopani, and Chambishi — are in simultaneous maintenance June through mid-September. KCM produced 80,215t of copper in 2025; Zambia's national output was ~890,000t. Iran war has disrupted global sulphuric acid supply — a critical copper processing input.

Sources: NPR/AP, Radio Free Europe/Radio Farda, Mining.com/Goldman Sachs/Citi, Mining.com/Australian Financial Review, Reuters/Economic Times Infrastructure

Iran's semi-official Tasnim agency reported Monday that Iranian negotiators ceased all indirect communications with the United States, citing Israel's renewed strikes on Hezbollah in Beirut as a ceasefire violation. Iran and affiliated groups committed to "entirely obstruct the Strait of Hormuz" and activate the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Foreign Minister Araghchi: "A violation on one front constitutes a violation across all fronts." Brent crude surged more than 7% to approximately $97/bbl. Iranian copper smelters at Sar Chesmeh and Khatoon Abad suspended production. Trump told NBC he would maintain the naval blockade; US forces intercepted two Iranian ballistic missiles targeting Kuwait with no casualties.

Elliott Investment Management disclosed an A$1 billion (~$716M USD, ~4% equity) stake in Northern Star Resources and published an 11-page public letter titled "Northern Star Rising" demanding a strategic review including potential sale of the company. Elliott cited four guidance reductions in Q1 2026, KCGM mill failures, and a vacant CEO position. Demanded: independent financial adviser, new board with mining expertise, external CEO hire.

Reuters reported Monday that Barrick Mining is in early-stage talks to spin off its African operations into a London-listed entity in a possible all-share combination with Endeavour Mining valued at approximately $30 billion. Barrick would retain its Toronto/NYSE listing as a holding company. Spinoff targeted for end of 2026. African assets include operations in Mali, DRC, Côte d'Ivoire, and Tanzania.

USA Rare Earth (Nasdaq: USAR) committed more than €175 million ($204 million) to expand rare earth metal, alloy, and permanent magnet manufacturing in France through 2030. Builds on earlier Carester stake acquisition (€40M). Lacq, France facility. 300+ jobs. French government evaluating debt guarantees and equity investment. CEO Barbara Humpton announced at Choose France summit in Paris.

Sources: CNBC, Tasnim/Iranian state media, Institute for the Study of War, Fortune, SP Angel, Mining.com/Bloomberg, WSJ, Reuters/Mining.com, Investing News Network

The US-Iran framework to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz remains unsigned. Trump emerged from a two-hour Situation Room meeting Friday without an announcement, then sent a revised draft to Tehran with tougher terms on Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile and Hormuz transit fees. Over the weekend, the US military struck Iranian radar and drone sites near Goruk and Qeshm Island. Iran's parliament speaker said Tehran will not accept any deal that fails to secure Iranian rights. Trump told Truth Social that Iran 'really wants a deal.' Brent crude rose approximately 3% Monday morning on the renewed uncertainty.

Cameco moved to consolidate its position at Cigar Lake, announcing a $115.75 million buyout of TEPCO Resources' 5% participating interest. Cameco's stake rises to 57.418%; Orano takes 42.582%. Cigar Lake holds 172.4 million pounds in proven and probable U3O8 reserves and produced 174.5 million pounds since 2014. 2026 production guidance: 17.5–18 million pounds. The Cigar Lake Extension targets mine life to 2036.

The DRC's council of ministers approved a decree adding lithium, tantalum, niobium, tungsten, uranium, and rare earths to its strategic minerals list — raising royalties from 3.5% to 10%. The move directly affects Zijin Mining's Manono lithium project, due to commission in June, and KoBold Metals' exploration program launched in April.

In a separate development, Zijin's $4 billion acquisition of Allied Gold is facing resistance from China's National Development and Reform Commission over valuation and Mali risk. The outside date has been extended to July 29, 2026. Allied stock fell ~6.5%.

Sources: Al Jazeera, CNBC, The Soufan Center, Cameco/Business Wire, Mining.com, Financial Times

The Hormuz ceasefire is holding — barely. The framework that US and Iranian negotiators had tentatively agreed to earlier in the week has been sent back to Tehran after President Trump requested multiple amendments, primarily focused on Iran's nuclear materials management. US officials said Iran could take several days to respond. Trump said he is in no rush, but added there will be a deal. In the meantime, the US military disabled the Gambian-flagged cargo vessel Lian Star with a Hellfire missile on May 30 after it ignored warnings while attempting to breach the naval blockade and reach an Iranian port.

Zimbabwe's lithium export ban is doing exactly what the government intended. The country has attracted nearly $1 billion in new in-country lithium processing investment — driven primarily by Chinese companies already operating there. Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt has committed approximately $700 million for Prospect Lithium Zimbabwe; Sinomine's Bikita Minerals has committed approximately $500 million; Sichuan Yahua has begun construction of a new lithium sulphate facility.

And Chinalco's Chairman met BHP's CEO-elect in Beijing — a high-level bilateral meeting between China's largest aluminum and copper producer and the world's largest mining company, ahead of BHP's leadership transition.

Sources: Al Jazeera, Jerusalem Post/Axios, Politico, Copperbelt Katanga Mining, AAStocks

Today on The Mining Insider:

1. Anglo American $3.7B Loss / De Beers Writedown — Anglo posted a $3.7B net loss after a fresh $2.3B pre-tax impairment on De Beers. Total De Beers writedowns: $6.8B over the past year. Third straight annual production decline; 2026 output forecast cut. CEO Duncan Wanblad: 'There is at the moment a plentiful supply of rough diamonds in the market.' Two flagship coal mines halted by fire. Sale process at 'advanced stage'; Botswana government must be consulted on partner selection. Wanblad optimistic deal signed this year.

2. US-Iran Hormuz MOU — Agreed at negotiating level, neither side has signed. VP Vance: 'It's hard to say exactly when or if the president is going to sign the MOU.' Trump wants 'a couple of days to think about it.' IDF warns deal leaves Iran's ballistic missiles unchecked. US struck Bandar Abbas on May 27; Iran retaliated against Kuwait US base (intercepted by Kuwait). Brent fell ~20% in May on ceasefire optimism — largest monthly drop in years — but structurally elevated above pre-war levels. Gold recovered to $4,514/oz on May 29 after April PCE 3.8% matched expectations (reversal from $4,368 on May 28).

3. Iron Ore Monthly Loss — Singapore futures -1.2% in May, $105.85/t — first monthly loss since February. Shanxi coking coal spike faded. Chinese steel mill margins under pressure. But iron ore still +9.8% YoY; Pilbara producers well-positioned.

4. Integra Resources DeLamar NOI — BLM published Notice of Intent in Federal Register on May 29, launching NEPA EIS process for DeLamar gold-silver heap leach project, Owyhee County, Idaho. Final EIS and Record of Decision expected Q3 2027 (15-month process). FAST-41 status. CEO George Salamis: 'reflects more than seven years of technical work.' 49,000+ stakeholders engaged, 1,400+ events since 2021. Endorsements from Senators Crapo and Risch, Congressman Fulcher.

Sources: Middle East Metals/Bloomberg (Anglo); Solace Global/Mackinder Forum (US-Iran/Hormuz); IndexBox/COMEX (gold); MINING.COM (iron ore); Integra Resources PR Newswire (DeLamar)

Today on The Mining Insider:

1. US-Iran Hormuz Ceasefire Deal — US and Iranian negotiators reached tentative agreement on a 60-day memorandum of understanding: Iran removes mines within 30 days; US lifts naval blockade of Iranian ports and provides limited sanctions waivers on Iranian oil sales; framework opens pathway to nuclear talks. Trump had not yet approved as of May 29. Iran's Tasnim News said text not yet finalized. If completed: most significant development since the conflict began February 28. Prediction markets: 45% chance of permanent deal by June 30. For mining: energy cost relief on diesel, explosives, shipping rates, and risk premiums on crude/copper.

2. DRC Rubaya Coltan Mine — Congolese army (FARDC) launched second offensive on May 18 to retake Rubaya mine (controlled by M23 since April 2024). M23 repelled the offensive, recaptured dozen+ villages by May 26. Rubaya produces est. 15–30% of global coltan supply. UN: M23 earns $800K+/month from mine levies. Trump-linked consortium, Mercuria, and US-backed TechMet all in talks to invest. Rubaya at center of US-DRC minerals-for-security diplomacy; discussed in US/Swiss-M23 peace talks May 26-27 in Rwanda.

3. Sunshine Silver Mining IPO — Filing for NYSE IPO under ticker SSMR. Plans to sell 20M shares at up to $16.50/share to raise up to $330M. Proceeds to restart Sunshine Mine in Idaho's Coeur d'Alene district — historically among the world's richest silver belts. Electrum Group retains 50%+ ownership post-IPO. Silver trading near $75/oz; most primary silver miner AISC: $15–20/oz. Rick Rule (Kitco Mining): 'silver miners are on the brink of a breakout.'

4. Perpetua Resources $2.9B Ex-Im Loan + Carney Minerals Pitch — Perpetua (NASDAQ: PPTA) received unanimous approval from Ex-Im Bank Board for $2.9B senior secured loan for Stibnite Gold and Antimony Project (Idaho) — only large-scale domestic US antimony source. Loan expected available 2H 2026. Canada's PM Carney pitched US on closer aluminum, autos, and minerals ties; described Canadian aluminum exports as 'the energy equivalent of 10 Hoover Dams.'

Sources: Reuters (Hormuz/ceasefire); Critical Threats Africa File May 28 (Rubaya/M23); Kitco Mining/Rick Rule (Sunshine Silver IPO); MINING.COM/Perpetua Resources/Bloomberg (Carney)

Today on The Mining Insider:

1. Japan Copper Smelter Consolidation — JX Advanced Metals, Mitsui Kinzoku, Marubeni, and Mitsubishi Materials signed a definitive agreement on May 28, 2026 to consolidate copper operations under Pan Pacific Copper. Mitsubishi Materials splits off its concentrate purchasing and refined product sales into PPC via an absorption-type company split. Transaction effective October 1, 2026 (subject to JFTC approval). Ownership: JX 32.5%, Mitsubishi 32%, Mitsui Kinzoku 21.9%, Marubeni 13.6%. Strategic rationale: collapsing TC/RC rates, Chinese competition, and economic security — copper smelters recover gold, silver, palladium, and other critical metals.

2. MP Materials Sues USA Rare Earths — MP Materials (NYSE: MP) filed a lawsuit in a Texas court alleging that a former employee shared proprietary grain boundary diffusion formulations with USA Rare Earths (NASDAQ: USAR). Grain boundary diffusion improves magnet coercivity (resistance to demagnetization) without heavy rare earths. MP: 'USA Rare Earth has exhibited a pattern of recruiting employees from other companies and then using those employees to misappropriate trade secrets.' USAR denied the allegations. Both companies compete for US defence contracts for rare earth magnets used in F-35s and Tomahawk missiles.

3. Gold Breaks 200-Day Moving Average — Gold dropped to $4,368/oz (from $4,483 previous session) on May 28 after the US shot down four Iranian drones and Iran struck back at US military bases. The 200-day moving average — a key technical support — was broken, triggering algorithmic selling. Brent crude steady near $97/bbl. API data showed US crude draw of 2.8mb, gasoline draw 3.2mb. Gold had hit $5,600/oz in February; producers with AISC below $4,000/oz remain well-positioned but further declines would pressure higher-cost operators.

4. Mining Companies Chase US Defence Listings — At least 18 mining companies have completed or are pursuing dual US exchange listings in 2026 (vs. 3 in 2025), per Reuters. Companies range from $25m to $7.5bn in market cap; mostly Canadian and Australian. Minerals: antimony, tungsten, uranium, rare earths. United States Antimony: $245m DLA contract for antimony stockpile. Guardian Metal Resources: $6.2m Pentagon funding, applied for $100m+. Context: China banned antimony exports Aug 2024, tungsten exports 2025; DRC restricted cobalt. Trump launched $12bn strategic minerals stockpile initiative in February. Quote from Rick Werner, Haynes Boone: 'There's absolutely a lot of money going into defence-driven exploration, but a lot of it is also very speculative right now.'

Sources: Marubeni Corporation press release (marubeni.com); Canadian Mining Journal / Bloomberg (MP Materials); SP Angel / Share-Talk (gold, crude); Miningmx / Reuters (defence listings)

Today on The Mining Insider:

1. LNG Tankers Exit Hormuz — For the first time since late February, LNG tankers are transiting the Strait of Hormuz. ADNOC's Umm Al Ashtan reappeared northwest of Muscat on May 23, loaded for India. Two Qatar LNG tankers have also cleared the strait. A US-Iran 60-day ceasefire extension is reportedly being finalized — Iran would remove mines, allow unrestricted passage, and the US would ease select sanctions. Brent near $98-100/bbl. UBS: global oil inventories fell 246 million barrels in March and April.

2. BlackRock Backs Mining M&A — At the Australian Financial Review Mining Summit in Perth, portfolio manager Olivia Markham said BlackRock sees merit in more large-scale mining consolidation. The world's largest asset manager — with $240B in infrastructure mandates and stakes in Glencore, Rio Tinto, BHP, and Endeavour Mining — argues bigger companies attract generalist capital and can fund complex projects. Markham: 'Commodity demand is simply accelerating... you've got a supply side that is massively underinvested.'

3. India-US Critical Minerals Framework — India and the US signed a bilateral framework agreement on May 26, covering nickel, cobalt, lithium, rare earths, and more. The Quad bloc pledged up to $20B for mining, processing, and recycling initiatives. The US relies entirely on imports for 12 critical minerals; China controls 60% of rare earth reserves and processes 90% of supply. India brings 13 million tonnes of monazite and current production of copper, graphite, phosphorus, and titanium.

4. Copper Near Record — LME copper at $6.42/lb ($14,154/t) on May 27, up 0.85%. Near the all-time record of $14,109.48/t set May 13. Trafigura withdrew 51,000 tonnes from LME warehouses on May 23 — largest since 2013. Freeport's Grasberg still at ~50% capacity.

5. Bayridge Resources Clears NIRB — Baker Basin Uranium Project (Nunavut) passes NIRB screening with no formal review required under NuPPAA. 83 claims, ~619 km2, 75-km unconformity corridor. Advancing to 2026 helicopter-supported diamond drilling program. VP Exploration Mark Richardson: 'a significant milestone.'

Sources: Bloomberg, LSEG, SteelOrbis, Economic Times, The Business Times Singapore, Al Jazeera, India Ministry of External Affairs, Trading Economics, Newsfile Corp / Bayridge Resources

In today's episode of The Mining Insider, Logan Ore covers four major developments shaping the global mining industry:

1. US Strikes Iran Near the Strait as Deal Talks Continue — US and Israeli jets struck Iranian vessels attempting to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz and targeted missile sites near Bandar Abbas. Secretary of State Rubio confirmed the strikes and said the Strait must remain open 'one way or the other.' Oil rebounded toward $98/bbl after Monday's dip below $100. Copper LME held firm at $13,673/t; Trafigura withdrew ~51,000T of copper from LME warehouses Friday — the largest withdrawal since 2013.

2. Russia's Second UGC Auction Fails Again — The Dutch auction for Russia's seized 67.2% stake in Uzhuralzoloto (46M oz gold equivalent) collapsed after the sole bidder — Russian Coal — was disqualified. Two consecutive failures to find a buyer at any price. What happens next to the asset is unknown.

3. Guinea Moves to Restrict Bauxite Exports — Guinea (supplying ~1/3 of global bauxite at 183Mtpa) is set to announce export controls next month, per Bloomberg. Bauxite prices have fallen to ~$56/t in Q1 2026. Guinea is pushing for domestic alumina refining capacity — the same export-restriction playbook as Indonesia (nickel), DRC (cobalt), and Zimbabwe (lithium).

4. Mineral Resources Takes A$490M Lithium FID at Mt Marion — MinRes and Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium (50/50 JV) take FID to expand Mt Marion near Kalgoorlie to ~600ktpa SC6 from ~500ktpa. Capex: A$240M flotation plant + A$220M underground development + A$30M infrastructure. Commissioning: 2H FY28. Payback: <1 year at current ~US$2,700/t SC6 spot.

Sources: Al Jazeera, CNBC, Bloomberg, Izvestia, SP Angel/Bloomberg.

In today's episode of The Mining Insider, Logan Ore covers four major developments shaping the global mining industry:

1. Iran Deal Hopes Send Oil Below $100 — President Trump says a US-Iran framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is largely negotiated. Brent crude falls 4.6% to $98.80/bbl, WTI drops 4.7% to $92/bbl. The Strait has been effectively closed since February 28, cutting ~20% of global oil and LNG flows and driving up diesel, sulphuric acid, and freight costs for mines worldwide. Analysts at MST Financial warn that even with a deal, markets will remain tight through 2027.

2. Copper Q1 2026 Surplus: 396,000 Tonnes — ICSG May 2026 Copper Bulletin reveals a refined surplus nearly three times the Q1 2025 figure of 135,000T. Mine disruptions: Grasberg -42%, Kamoa-Kakula -36%, Chile -5.8%. Refined production surged: China +8.8%, India +25%. The surplus is concentrated in China; Western prices remain elevated on forward demand expectations.

3. Gold Near $4,500 — Two Headwinds — Gold holds in the $4,500–$4,569 range, pulled back from the May high of $4,743. Iran ceasefire progress reduces geopolitical risk premiums. India's gold import duty raised from 6% to 15% (steepest increase on record) — World Gold Council estimates 50–60 tonne decline in Indian demand in 2026.

4. Mount Holland Lithium Mine Approved to Double — SQM and Wesfarmers' 50-50 JV in Western Australia receives approval to expand spodumene capacity to 4.4Mtpa. Spodumene prices hit $2,890/t on May 12, a 2-year high. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence warns that broader Australian supply increases could pressure prices and create a surplus by 2027.

Sources: BBC News, Yahoo Finance, Wall Street Journal, IndexBox/ICSG, IG Markets, Mining.com.