If birth rates are falling, is it really because people want fewer kids—or because they feel like they can’t afford them?

In this episode, Cara Stern and Mike Moffatt unpack the growing gap between “preference” and “choice” when it comes to starting a family. From the rising financial and social costs of raising children to the pressure of modern parenting norms, they explore why having kids today feels harder, even for people who say they want them. The conversation dives into everything from delayed careers and housing affordability to the hidden impact of social media, the “arms race” of parenting, and what we can learn from Quebec’s subsidized childcare experiment.

The big takeaway: there’s no single cause and no single fix. But if we want a society where people can truly choose the family size they want, we may need to rethink everything from childcare and housing to culture itself.

Research/links:

Fertility Postponement, Economic Uncertainty, and the Rising Income Prerequisites of Parenthood – van Wijk and Billari (2024)
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/padr.12624

Fertility Incentives in Canada: A Cohort Analysis – Lee and Liu (2024)
https://clef.uwaterloo.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CLEF-075-2024.pdf

The Role of Social Comparisons and Intensive Parenting – Mahler, Tertilt, and Yum, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (2025)
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/5_Mahler_Tertilt_Yum_unembargoed.pdf

Not Just Later, but Fewer: Novel Trends in Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries – Demography (2021)
https://read.dukeupress.edu/demography/article/58/4/1373/174063/Not-

Just-Later-but-Fewer-Novel-Trends-in-Cohort
Workism and Fertility: The Case of the Nordics (2024)
https://www.aei.org/articles/workism-and-fertility-the-case-of-the-nordics/

The Effect of Family Fertility Support Policies on Fertility – Zhang et al. (2023)
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10049131/
Fertility trends across the OECD: Underlying drivers and the role for policy: 

Society at a Glance 2024 | OECD
https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/society-at-a-glance-2024_918d8db3-en/full-report/fertility-trends-across-the-oecd-underlying-drivers-and-the-role-for-policy_770679b8.html

Why Americans Are Delaying Parenthood
https://www.prb.org/news/why-americans-are-delaying-parenthood/

Canada is among countries with an ‘ultra-low fertility’ rate. What is behind the drop?
https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/article/canada-is-among-countries-with-an-ultra-low-fertility-rate-what-is-behind-the-drop/

World Happiness Report 2026 | The World Happiness Report
https://www.worldhappiness.report/ed/2026/

She’s (Not) Having a Baby
https://www.cardus.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Shes-Not-Having-a-Baby.pdf

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

Are provincial governments raising your taxes in secret? 

Economist Mike Moffatt and columnist Sabrina Maddeaux expose the hidden mechanism of bracket creep, a stealth tax increase impacting millions of Canadians.

Because fixed-tax brackets in provinces like B.C., Manitoba, and Ontario fail to adjust for inflation, middle-class workers are automatically pushed into higher tax tiers, forcing them to pay taxes as though they are wealthy even though their purchasing power remains flat.

We dive into why this particularly clobbers income-dependent younger Canadians (Millennials and Gen Z) and how Ontario's outdated surtax thresholds, which can be triggered by an income of less than $110,000, are punishing effort and driving out-migration. More than just money, this quiet revenue tool lacks democratic accountability, eroding trust in institutions and revealing a tax code desperately in need of a full rethink.

Key Topics: Bracket Creep, Stealth Taxes, Tax Policy, Inflation, Middle Class, Ontario Surtax, Mike Moffatt, Sabrina Maddeaux, Canadian Politics, Economic Inequality, Tax Reform.

Chapters:

00:00 Bracket Creep and its Impact on Purchasing Power

02:32 The Accountability Issue: Why Stealth Tax Increases Matter

04:06 How Bracket Creep Hits Income Earners and the Generational Divide

06:17 The Problem with Ontario's Outdated Surtax Thresholds

08:36 Political Ramifications and the Erosion of Trust in Institutions

10:10 The Need for a Tax Code Rethink

Sabrina's National Post column (source document): Sabrina Maddeaux: Provinces are profiting from your inflationary pain | National Post

Canadian Taxpayers Federation report on Manitoba bracket freeze: Newsroom

Kelowna Capital News on BC bracket freeze revenue projections: Detailing B.C.’s tax changes in Budget 2026, including income tax increases | Kelowna Capital News

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

For years, the Missing Middle team has advocated for reducing the tax burden on new construction. With pre-construction sales down 95% in some GTA markets, the industry has hit a wall where it simply makes no financial sense to build.

In this week’s episode, we answer some of the questions and misconceptions we’ve read online about the new HST rebate on new homes. 

Beyond the rebate, they explore bigger structural challenges like land costs, zoning, and competition in development. The key question remains whether this policy can meaningfully increase supply in a market that is still not functioning normally.

If the goal is to improve affordability, the HST rebate may help, but it is only one part of a much larger housing problem.

Chapters:

00:00 - Gov Announces HST Rebate and Reduced Development Charges

01:22 - Overview of HST Changes

01:52 -  History of Previous Rental and Ownership Rebates

02:58 - Expanding Eligibility Beyond First-Time Buyers

05:32 - Addressing the "Demand Subsidy" Misconception

07:25 - Will Developers Pass Savings to the Buyer?

09:04 - The Impact on Land Values and the Need for Reform

10:05 - Historical Comparison of Government Taxes and Fees

11:26 - How Accurate are the Government Numbers?

12:42 - Projected Impact and the One-Year Program Limit

14:09 - Retroactive Eligibility and Final Thoughts

Research/links:

Doug Ford and Mark Carney to expand HST rebate to all new home buyers

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/exclusive-ford-and-carney-to-expand-hst-rebate-to-all-new-home-buyers/article_55543d47-86b9-466d-bd17-6155c4d62097.html

Doug Ford and Mark Carney to expand HST rebate to all new home buyers : r/canadahousing

https://www.reddit.com/r/canadahousing/comments/1s3a8cs/doug_ford_and_mark_carney_to_expand_hst_rebate_to/

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

If inflation is only around 2–3%, why does everything feel so much more expensive?

In this episode, we break down how inflation is actually measured, and why your personal experience can feel completely disconnected from the official numbers. From grocery bills and gas prices to rent and mortgages, not all price increases hit the same way—and some matter a lot more than others.

We also dig into the hidden forces shaping your cost of living: shrinkflation, quality drops (“chocolatey” vs. chocolate), and the limits of how agencies like Statistics Canada track price changes. The result? A single inflation number that masks wildly different realities depending on how you live, spend, and earn.

In other words: there isn’t one inflation rate. There are millions.

Chapters 

00:00 Intro: Why We Underestimate Inflation

00:28 Official Stats vs. Public Perception

01:20 Breaking Down the "Spending Basket"

02:07 Why Every Family Experiences Inflation Differently

03:33 Why Reading & Media Prices are Dropping

04:04 Biggest Price Jumps & Surprises

05:56 The Reality of Shrinkflation at the Grocery Store

06:46 The Kraft Dinner Test: Smaller Sizes, Same Price

07:43 Cutting Ingredients: Chocolate vs. "Chocolaty"

09:03 Housing & Shelter Inflation

11:46 Boomers vs. Gen Z: Who Wins in High Interest Rates?

12:55 Final Thoughts: One Economy, Multiple Realities

Research Links:

Consumer Price Index and Inflation Perceptions in Canada: Can measurement approaches or behavioural factors explain the gap?

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/62f0014m/62f0014m2021017-eng.htm

Shrinking products, rising prices: Food-specific quantity adjustments in the Consumer Price Index

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-627-m/11-627-m2025016-eng.htm 

Greedy bastards. This just happened in the past few weeks.

https://www.reddit.com/r/loblawsisoutofcontrol/comments/1s116uj/greedy_bastards_this_just_happened_in_the_past/ 

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

In this episode of The Missing Middle, Cara Stern sits down with YouTuber Paige Saunders to discuss the one structural glitch that is sabotaging Canada’s economy, healthcare, and housing market: our electoral system.

While most democracies have moved on to Proportional Representation, Canada remains stuck with a model that empowers swing ridings and ignores millions of voters. Paige explains why this monopoly on power prevents real innovation and how a simple change in how we vote could lead to a 20% performance increase across the board.

In this video:

• How our voting system benefits wealthy people
• Which voting system would a villain choose?
• Why Ranked Choice is a trap for multi-party democracies.
• The path forward: Why we need a binding Citizens' Assembly.

Check out Paige Saunders' channel: https://www.youtube.com/@PaigeMTL

Chapters:

00:37 Intro: The hidden force behind Canada’s biggest problems

01:12 What’s broken about Canada’s voting system

01:48 How swing ridings control the country

04:03 Why politicians ignore entire groups of voters

05:26 Does proportional representation hurt suburbs?

06:59 Populism, power, and lack of accountability

08:59 Why this won’t magically fix housing

10:17 Why politicians refuse to change the system

11:11 Why most Canadians don’t even notice the problem

12:58 Is Canada heading down the US/UK path?

15:13 Why electoral reform keeps failing

19:40 The real barrier to change

24:24 The AI test: which system is worst?

29:12 “I was shocked Canada still uses this”

32:28 Is Canada falling behind on democracy?

36:03 Can anything actually force reform?

40:00 What a better system could look like

42:45 Final thoughts: a more Canadian democracy

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

You built equity, planned ahead, and did everything right, so why is the next step on the housing ladder completely out of reach?

Canada’s housing crisis is usually framed around first-time buyers struggling to get into the market. But a growing number of Canadians already made that leap and are now stuck. Couples who bought small condos with the expectation of eventually upgrading are discovering that the path forward has quietly disappeared.

In this episode, Mike Moffatt and Sabrina Maddeaux unpack the rise of the “trapped” second-time homebuyer; households in their late 20s to early 40s who did everything right, built equity, and planned ahead, only to find that larger, family-sized homes are further out of reach than ever. With prices outpacing incomes, policy focused on first-time buyers, and a shortage of suitable homes, the traditional housing ladder no longer works.

What happens when an entire generation can’t move up, even after getting in? And what does it mean for family formation, economic mobility, and the future of Canada’s housing system?

Chapters:

00:00 The "Broken Ladder": Canada’s Second-Time Homebuyer Crisis

00:58 Trapped in the Starter Home:The Condo Squeeze

03:01 The Over-Focus on Shoebox Condos vs. Family Homes

04:13 How the Housing Dream Changed

05:44 Is the “Condo-to-Detached” Model a Ponzi Scheme?

06:39 The “Goldilocks” Scenario for Sustainable Housing Gains

08:16 Polling Data: What Ontarians Actually Care About

10:17 The Case for Extending HST Rebates Beyond First-Time Buyers

11:11 Policy Dorks vs. The Public: Finding Common Ground

14:00 Property Taxes: The "Political Third Rail"

15:45 Should Housing Rules Be Handled by the Province?

16:35 Why Down Payment Support Might Be Hurting More Than Helping

18:43 Renters’ Rights & The Future of Canadian Housing

Research Links:

New OREA survey finds Ontarians support change and transparency in housing costs and policies

Housing in Ontario: Perceptions, Impacts, And Solutions

Unlocking Homeownership: What Canadians Want from Housing Policy

A Blueprint to Restore Homeownership for Young Canadians

Is Ontario Ready to Spend $895M to Jumpstart Homebuilding?

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

Is Canada still a “land of opportunity,” or has your success become a function of who your parents are?

In this segment, Cara Stern and Mike Moffatt dive into the uncomfortable reality of meritocracy in Canada. While Boomers largely believe hard work still pays off, Millennials and Gen Z are seeing a different story. We break down the latest Ipsos polling data and Statistics Canada research that shows social mobility is eroding.

From the "Housing Theory of Everything" to the widening gap between equal opportunity and equal outcomes, we explore why the rules of the game have changed, and what we need to fix to make Canada fair again.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:46 Defining Meritocracy

1:12 Is Canada a Meritocracy? 

02:41 Measuring Meritocracy Income and Polls

04:23 Generational Divide in Ipsos Poll

05:54 Fairness Equal Opportunity vs Outcomes

07:15 Economists on Eroding Social Mobility

09:07 Increasing Distrust in Institutions & Distrust of Politicians

09:47 Changing Minds Understanding New Realities

11:13 Housing Crisis and Social Mobility

12:45 The Role of Effort combined with Environment

Research/links:

Generational Disconnect In Canada Ipsos Equalities Index 2025 - A 31-country Global Advisor Study

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/publication/documents/2025-08/generational-disconnect-in-Canada.pdf

Trends in Intergenerational Income Mobility and Income Inequality in Canada

Trends in Intergenerational Income Mobility and Income Inequality in Canada

International Fairness Day 2024: Canada’s commitment to fairness for every generation is more than an empty slogan – but it’s not yet a reality

https://www.if.org.uk/2024/11/18/international-fairness-day-2024-canadas-commitment-to-fairness-for-every-generation-is-more-than-an-empty-slogan-but-its-not-yet-a-reality/

A retreat from opportunity: Is the Canadian dream still alive?

https://thehub.ca/2025/11/10/deepdive-a-retreat-from-opportunity-is-the-canadian-dream-still-alive/

Intergenerational income mobility in Canada: Research highlights from two recent studies

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2023012/article/00001-eng.htm

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

In 2025, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reported nearly 260,000 housing starts, a figure that suggests real progress on the housing crisis. But a deeper look reveals a much more complicated and concerning reality.

Most of the new supply is made up of small condos and apartments, not the family-sized homes people are looking for. Because housing starts are recorded late in the construction process, today’s data often reflects decisions made years ago, not current market conditions.

Even more concerning, pre-construction sales are falling across multiple cities. This raises serious questions about what housing supply will look like in the years ahead.

In this episode, we discuss:

• Why CMHC’s housing starts data can be misleading
• The difference between housing starts and real time market conditions
• Why Canada is building smaller homes
• The composition effect changing housing trends
• What falling pre construction sales signal for the future

Chapters:

00:00:00 Intro: The Housing Data Disconnect

00:01:06 The Problem With CMHC Housing Starts Data

00:04:06 How to Fix Misleading Housing Metrics

00:05:14 The One-Size-Fits-All Data Problem

00:05:49 Generational Shifts in Home Size

00:07:05 Reality vs Data: Smaller Homes and Composition Effects

00:08:14 The Collapse of Pre-Construction Sales

00:09:12 Future Housing Market Outlook 

Research Links

CMHC Housing Report: https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market/housing-market-outlook 

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

Looking for a family-sized apartment in Canada feels almost impossible. In this episode, Cara Stern and Mike Moffatt explore why they’re so rare in Canadian cities and why building regulations, zoning, and outdated fire safety rules make larger units nearly impossible to construct. Restrictive codes, high costs, and policy gaps mean that families often end up squeezed into spaces that don’t meet their needs or leave cities entirely.

This shortage has shaped urban life, contributed to declining family formation in cities, and limited opportunities for young families. Are regulations really protecting people, or are they unintentionally blocking the housing Canadians need?

In this episode, we discuss:

Regulatory Barriers: How building codes and zoning prevent the creation of family-sized apartments.

Comparisons with Europe: Why families in cities like Paris and Berlin live comfortably in apartments.

Unintended Consequences: How rules meant to improve safety or quality actually reduce housing options.

Policy and Change: What it would take to create a housing system that truly supports families.

Chapters:
00:00 Introduction
00:42 Challenges Finding Family-Sized Rental Apartments
01:54 How European Families Live in City Apartments
02:46 Why European-Style Apartment Units Are Illegal Here
03:40 North American Apartment Layouts Create Space Issues
04:15 Unintended Consequences of Prescriptive Building Codes
04:57 pop up https://youtu.be/TF63Xj_QtjM?si=YKMdLHIs8b_Nchgx
05:03 pop up https://youtu.be/WpT0YDY8ejM?si=OIIEQm-y76TZlPEB
06:05 Structural Problems in Housing Regulations
08:07 Zoning Makes Low-Rise Family Apartments Difficult
09:48 Optimism and Next Steps for Policy Change

Research/links:
Why we can’t build family-sized apartments in North America
https://www.centerforbuilding.org/article/why-we-cant-build

Why Single Stairways are Heaven for Homebuilding
https://youtu.be/WpT0YDY8ejM?si=OIIEQm-y76TZlPEB

How Elevator Rules Cost Us Homes
https://youtu.be/TF63Xj_QtjM?si=YKMdLHIs8b_Nchgx

North America's Elevator Problem
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Or1_qVdekYM&t=1s

Addressing the concerns around single-staircase apartments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozwkP9Zsi0Y

Why We Don't Build More Apartments for Families | Odd Lots
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76IHpt6q9ME

Broken Zoning: Why We Can’t Fix the Housing Crisis Without a Map
https://youtu.be/yuAsjJsiuyQ?si=1DDXn4pIGUvSjmgC

Single Stair Buildings for San Francisco: The Key to Building Small Scale Infill Housing
https://openscopestudio.com/single-stair-buildings-for-san-francisco-the-key-to-building-small-scale-infill-housing/

Why Are Housing Costs So High? The Elevator Can Explain Why.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/08/opinion/elevator-construction-regulation-labor-immigration.html

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

Is the Canadian dream officially broken? A recent headline claiming Canada is now poorer than Alabama sparked outrage and pearl-clutching from coast to coast. But beyond the headlines, what does the data actually say about our quality of life?

In this episode of Classonomics, hosts Mike Moffatt and Sabrina Maddeaux strip away the “economic hubris” and look at the cold, hard numbers. They explore why Canadians are so obsessed with “dunking on Americans” that we’ve ignored a decade of stagnation, a plummeting Human Development Index, and a housing crisis that has created two different Canadas.

In this episode, we discuss:

The Alabama Comparison: Is GDP per capita the right metric, or just a wake-up call?

The Happiness Gap: Why Canadian seniors are some of the happiest in the world while young people (under 30) have plummeted to 58th globally.

The Generational Wealth Divide: How the “floor” is falling out for Millennials and Gen Z while older homeowners remain insulated.

The Resource Curse: Why Canada has the complacency of a resource-rich nation without actually reaping the wealth.

The “Not-American” Trap: Why comparing ourselves only to the U.S. is holding our policy-makers back from real solutions found in countries like Denmark and New Zealand.

“The inequality here isn’t rich versus poor. It’s old versus young.”


Chapters:
00:00 Is Canada Poorer Than Alabama? The Headline That Stung
01:03 - Defining GDP per Capita
02:54  Canada's Decline in Global Well-Being Rankings
04:11 The Happiness Gap: Seniors vs. Gen Z & Millennials
04:57 The “Household Wealth Irony: Why High Home Prices Are Deceptive
05:34 A Tale of Two Countries: The Generational Wealth Split
07:21 The "Floor" Argument: Why Alabama is More Stable for Youth
09:47 The Stark Reality: Seniors are 9x Richer Than Their Grandchildren
10:47 The Resource Curse: Complacency Without the Riches
12:23 Canada’s Biggest Problem: The “At Least We’re Not American” Mindset
15:24 Patriotism Through Criticism: Why We Must Admit There’s a Problem


Research:

Sabrina Maddeaux: Canada didn't become poorer than Alabama 'out of nowhere
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/canada-didnt-become-poorer-than-alabama-out-of-nowhere

Canada’s global performance rankings are in freefall
https://thehub.ca/2026/02/26/canadas-global-performance-rankings-are-in-freefall/

How Canada became poorer than Alabama
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-out-of-nowhere-canada-became-poorer-than-alabama-how-is-that-possible/

World Happiness Report 2025
https://www.worldhappiness.report/ed/2025/

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.