The Morning Filter

In this bonus episode of The Morning Filter podcast, co-host Dave Sekera and Morningstar senior equity analyst Dan Romanoff take a deep dive into one of Sekera’s top stock picks: Microsoft MSFT. Microsoft isn’t just a software company; it’s a portfolio of businesses, and Sekera and Romanoff discuss the company’s individual segments. They cover why Microsoft remains a wide moat company in the face of AI disruption and walk through its moat sources.

They unpack Morningstar’s forecasts for the company’s AI spending, revenue, and margins, and explain how Romanoff arrives at a $600 fair value estimate for Microsoft stock. They wrap up with a discussion about the key risks Microsoft faces today.

Episode Highlights 

00:00:00 Welcome

00:01:44 Microsoft isn’t a typical software company.

00:07:50 What Microsoft’s key competitive advantages are and why they’re durable.

00:15:58 How much Microsoft might spend on artificial intelligence and how quickly revenue could grow in relation to the company’s AI build out.

00:26:50 Forecasts for Microsoft’s revenue, operating margin, and earnings.

00:34:27 Why Morningstar is more constructive on Microsoft stock today than the market is.

00:43:33 The biggest risk to our $600 valuation on Microsoft stock.

Read about topics from this episode. 

After Earnings, Is Microsoft a Buy, Sell or Fairly Valued?
Microsoft Earnings: Azure and Capital Expenditures Are Expected to Accelerate

MSFT: This Might Be the Best Core Stock Bargain in the Market Today

Have an idea for a bonus episode? Send it to [email protected].

You can follow Dave Sekera on X (@MstarMarkets) and on LinkedIn (Dave Sekera) to subscribe to his weekly newsletter and keep up to date with his latest research, and follow Morningstar on Facebook (MorningstarInc), X (@MorningstarInc), Instagram (MorningstarInc) and LinkedIn (Morningstar).

If you would like more information about any of the stocks Dave talked about today can visit Morningstar.com for more details. Subscribe to The Morning Filter to get notified when we post next. We’ll see you on Monday!

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In this episode of The Morning Filter podcast, co-hosts Dave Sekera and Susan Dziubinski discuss why stock investors should learn how to tell the difference between signal and noise when evaluating investments. They review examples of both and cover how, over time, noise can become signal. Tune in to find out what resources investors can use to discern signal from noise, why an SEC-proposed change to company reporting may make it more difficult to tell the difference, and whether artificial intelligence is more noise or more signal.

They wrap up with 3 misunderstood stocks to buy because investors are confusing signal and noise. And as a bonus, they share an overvalued stock to sell that’s shooting out the lights based on noise, too.

Episode Highlights 

Why it’s important for investors to understand the difference between signal and noise.

Signal can change long-term cash flows and impact a company’s competitive advantages while noise only affects short-term expectations and sentiment.

Noise can become signal over time. Here’s where to look for signs of that and what to look for.

Is it too early to separate signal from noise when it comes to the impact AI may have on companies?

Misunderstood stocks that look undervalued because investors are confusing signal and noise.

Read about topics from this episode. 

US Stock Market Outlook: Where to Find Value After April’s Rally: https://www.morningstar.com/markets/us-stock-market-outlook-where-find-value-after-aprils-rally

See David Sekera’s Archive: https://www.morningstar.com/people/david-sekera

Got a question for Dave? Send it to [email protected].

Follow us on social media.

Dave Sekera on X: @MstarMarkets https://x.com/MstarMarkets

Dave Sekera on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davesekera

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/

X: https://x.com/MorningstarInc

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstarinc/?hl=en

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/morningstar/posts/?feedView=all

If you would like more information about any of the stocks Dave talked about today can visit Morningstar.com for more details. Subscribe to The Morning Filter to get notified when we post next. We’ll see you on Monday!

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In this episode of The Morning Filter podcast, co-hosts Dave Sekera and Susan Dziubinski recap last week’s market performance considering new developments in the Iran War. They cover why US investors should watch the Japanese yen, if inflation reports could rattle markets this week, and what to listen for in the upcoming earnings reports from Applied Materials AMAT and Cisco CSCO. Tune in to find out if AMD, Palantir PLTR and ARM ARM look attractive after reporting earnings.

They discuss why Fortinet FTNT soared last week and brought other cybersecurity stocks along for the ride. Then unpack an under-discussed Morningstar rating that encapsulates the quality of a company’s management team. They conclude this week’s episode with four stock picks to invest in after earnings.

Episode Highlights 

Why to watch the Japanese yen

What this week’s inflation reports could mean for the US stock market

Which AI companies reporting this week to keep an eye on

After reporting stellar results, is Advanced Micro Devices AMD a buy?

How to use Morningstar’s Capital Allocation Rating when analyzing stocks to invest in

Undervalued stocks to buy after earnings

Read about topics from this episode. 

US Stock Market Outlook: Where to Find Value After April’s Rally

See David Sekera’s Archive

Got a question for Dave? Send it to [email protected]. 

You can follow Dave Sekera on X (@MstarMarkets) and on LinkedIn (Dave Sekera) to subscribe to his weekly newsletter and keep up to date with his latest research, and follow Morningstar on Facebook (MorningstarInc), X (@MorningstarInc), Instagram (MorningstarInc) and LinkedIn (Morningstar).

If you would like more information about any of the stocks Dave talked about today can visit Morningstar.com for more details. Subscribe to The Morning Filter to get notified when we post next. We’ll see you on Monday!

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In this episode of The Morning Filter podcast, co-hosts Dave Sekera and Susan Dziubinski cover the latest in the war and the market, the GDP print, and the Fed meeting. They update the stock barbell strategy heading into May. Key earnings releases this week include Advanced Micro Devices AMD and Fortinet FTNT; tune in to find out why. 

They reveal which of the big tech stocks—Alphabet GOOGL, Microsoft MSFT, Meta Platforms META, Amazon.com AMZN and Apple AAPL—look like stocks to buy after earnings. The episode wraps with three overvalued stocks to take profits in and three undervalued stocks to buy instead.

Episode Highlights 

The one theme driving economic growth today

How to position your stock portfolio for the new month

Which earnings reports to watch for in the week ahead

Top insights from big tech earnings

Stocks to lock in gains and promising stocks to buy instead

Read about topics from this episode. 

Q2 2026 Stock Market Outlook: Don’t Panic, Readjust

Read Dave’s complete archive.

Got a question for Dave? Send it to [email protected]. 

You can follow Dave Sekera on X (@MstarMarkets) and on LinkedIn (Dave Sekera) to subscribe to his weekly newsletter and keep up to date with his latest research, and follow Morningstar on Facebook (MorningstarInc), X (@MorningstarInc), Instagram (MorningstarInc) and LinkedIn (Morningstar).

If you would like more information about any of the stocks Dave talked about today can visit Morningstar.com for more details. Subscribe to The Morning Filter to get notified when we post next. We’ll see you on Monday!

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode of The Morning Filter podcast, co-hosts Dave Sekera and Susan Dziubinski discuss what’s on radar this week after the US stock market hit new highs, including the Fed meeting and inflation numbers. They’ll preview big tech earnings coming out this week from Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft and do a rapid-fire Q&A about what to watch for in the earnings for several other companies including Eli Lilly LLY and UPS UPS. 

Tune in to find out if Intel, ServiceNow or Tesla are stocks to buy after earnings—and whether it’s time to throw in the towel or back up the truck on Adobe. They wrap up with three former stocks picks that look like attractive stocks to buy again.

Episode Highlights 

00:00:00 Welcome

00:02:27 Can the US stock market continue to hit new highs?

00:06:36 What to expect from this week’s Fed meeting, which is Jerome Powell’s last meeting as Fed chair

00:10:09 Whether Big Tech results and forecasts from Alphabet GOOGL, Apple AAPL, Amazon AMZN, Meta Platforms META, and Microsoft MSFT may disappoint

00:23:25 If Intel INTC, ServiceNow NOW or Tesla TSLA look attractive after earnings

00:34:56 Is Adobe ADBE a buy or sell today?

00:37:52 3 stock picks that look undervalued again

Read about topics from this episode. 

Q2 2026 Stock Market Outlook: Don’t Panic, Readjust

Read Dave’s complete archive.

Got a question for Dave? Send it to [email protected]. 

You can follow Dave Sekera on X (@MstarMarkets) and on LinkedIn (Dave Sekera) to subscribe to his weekly newsletter and keep up to date with his latest research, and follow Morningstar on Facebook (MorningstarInc), X (@MorningstarInc), Instagram (MorningstarInc) and LinkedIn (Morningstar).

If you would like more information about any of the stocks Dave talked about today can visit Morningstar.com for more details. Subscribe to The Morning Filter to get notified when we post next. We’ll see you on Monday!

This episode is sponsored by Vanguard: https://advisors.vanguard.com/engagement/fixed-income

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In this bonus episode of The Morning Filter podcast, co-host Susan Dziubinski talks with Morningstar’s director of personal finance and retirement planning Christine Benz. They touch on whether investors are a blind to market risk today or if they’re simply thinking long-term. They spend most of their time discussing portfolio construction—specifically, which asset classes to own, what role international stocks can play, and the types of bonds that work best for most investors. 

Benz shares some of her favorite funds and ETFs to include in an investment portfolio. They close with some rapid-fire questions about how to invest an IRA that’s sitting in cash, whether time horizon or risk tolerance is a more important consideration when constructing a portfolio, and the most underrated investment strategy today.

Episode Highlights 

00:00:00 Welcome

00:03:35 How to tell if you’re really a long-term investor or just a complacent one. 

00:06:24 Why investors should use mutual funds and ETFs as core portfolio holdings rather than stocks.

00:09:13 Best practices for portfolio construction—and which asset classes you do and don’t need for a diversified portfolio. 

00:23:51 What international stocks can add to your portfolio mix.

00:30:54 Which types of bonds to buy and which ones to avoid.

00:38:54 Top mutual funds and ETFs to consider for your portfolio.

Have an idea for a bonus episode? Send it to[email protected].

Read about topics from this episode. 

Our Best Investment Portfolio Examples for Savers and Retirees https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/best-investment-portfolio-examples-savers-retirees

Risk, Not Volatility, Is the Real Enemy for Investors https://www.morningstar.com/markets/risk-not-volatility-is-real-enemy

Christine’s column and video archive. https://www.morningstar.com/people/christine-benz

You can follow Dave Sekera on X (@MstarMarkets) and on LinkedIn (Dave Sekera) to subscribe to his weekly newsletter and keep up to date with his latest research, and follow Morningstar on Facebook (MorningstarInc), X (@MorningstarInc), Instagram (MorningstarInc) and LinkedIn (Morningstar).

Listen to The Morning Filter podcast every Monday at 9 am Eastern, 8 am Central. Subscribe to get notified when we post next. Happy Investing!

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In this episode of The Morning Filter podcast, co-hosts Dave Sekera and Susan Dziubinski discuss the latest developments in the Iran war and what investors should be monitoring. The stock market hit new highs last week; the co-hosts cover what drove performance, whether the market still looks undervalued, and if investors are too complacent. They dig into the stunning rally in Intel’s stock this year and its price risk heading into earnings on Thursday. Tune in to find out what companies to keep on your radar this week, hear Morningstar’s takeaways from big bank earnings, and find out whether Netflix, ASML, Taiwain Semiconductor and Johnson & Johnson JNJ are stocks to buy after they’ve reported earnings.

They talk about why the idea of buying stocks and holding them for decades sounds better in theory than it may be in practice. They wrap up with a handful of undervalued stock picks today that may, in fact, be stocks to own for decades.

Episode Highlights 

The US stock market hit new highs last week. Do stocks still look undervalued and are investors too complacent?

Whether Intel INTC is likely to sustain its stock price momentum after the company reports earnings this week.

What to watch for in the upcoming results from ServiceNow NOW, Tesla TSLA, and Blackstone BX.

Key takeaways from big bank earnings and reports from Netflix NFLX, ASML ASML, and Taiwan Semiconductor TSM.

Undervalued stocks to buy for the long-term—maybe even for decades.

Read about topics from this episode. 

Q2 2026 Stock Market Outlook: Don’t Panic, Readjust https://www.morningstar.com/markets/q2-2026-stock-market-outlook-dont-panic-readjust

Read Dave’s complete archive. https://www.morningstar.com/people/david-sekera

Got a question for Dave? Send it to [email protected].

Follow us on social media.

Dave Sekera on X: @MstarMarkets https://x.com/MstarMarkets

Dave Sekera on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davesekera

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/

X: https://x.com/MorningstarInc

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstarinc/?hl=en

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/morningstar/posts/?feedView=all

If you would like more information about any of the stocks Dave talked about today can visit Morningstar.com for more details. Subscribe to The Morning Filter to get notified when we post next. We’ll see you on Monday!

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this bonus episode of The Morning Filter podcast, co-host and Morningstar chief US market strategist Dave Sekera and Morningstar chief US economist Preston Caldwell share their new outlooks for the market and the economy. Tune in to find out whether the market is undervalued today, which sectors hold the best opportunities, and what stocks make Morningstar analysts’ top picks list. Sekera also explains why he thinks a value-growth barbell strategy can win in 2026 and how to execute it. 

Caldwell covers when he expects GDP growth to reaccelerate, why worries about the K-shaped economy are overdone, and how long he thinks it’ll be before the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates again. The episode concludes with a bond-market outlook, including whether the worst is behind the private credit market.

Episode Highlights 

Why we think a barbell approach to US stocks make sense today.

Which parts of the US stock market look most undervalued.

Why we expect volatility to persist in 2026.

Morningstar’s updated forecasts for GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates.

Our take on the bond market.

Read about topics from this episode.

33 Undervalued Stocks to Buy in a Volatile Market

Q1 2026 in Review and Q2 Market Outlook

Stock Sector Outlooks: Morningstar’s Top Q2 Picks Across the Market

Got a question for Dave? Send it to [email protected]. 

You can follow Dave Sekera on X (@MstarMarkets) and on LinkedIn (Dave Sekera) to subscribe to his weekly newsletter and keep up to date with his latest research, and follow Morningstar on Facebook (MorningstarInc), X (@MorningstarInc), Instagram (MorningstarInc) and LinkedIn (Morningstar).

Tune in to The Morning Filter podcast every Monday at 9 am Eastern, 8 am Central. Subscribe to get notified when we post next. Happy Investing!

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode of The Morning Filter podcast, co-hosts Dave Sekera and Susan Dziubinski unpack the stock market’s response to the US-Iran cease fire and discuss how investors should be thinking about their portfolios as uncertainty persists. They preview earnings season and what to watch for in big bank earnings from JPMorgan Chase JPM, Bank of America BAC, and Citigroup C this week. 

Tune in to find out if Johnson & Johnson, ASML, Taiwan Semiconductor and Netflix are stocks to buy ahead of earnings and whether Veeva Systems’ competitive advantages are likely to be eroded by AI. They wrap up with five undervalued growth stocks that look attractive today.

Episode Highlights 

00:00:00 Welcome

00:01:42 The market’s response to new events in the Iran war.

00:10:14 How companies may approach their forecasts during earnings season.

00:11:32 What to look for in big bank earnings this week.

00:14:21 Why to watch earnings from Johnson & Johnson JNJ, ASML ASML, Taiwan Semiconductor TSM and Netflix NFLX.

00:22:53 Is Veeva Systems’ VEEV moat safe?

00:28:00 Undervalued growth stocks to buy before they come back.

Read about topics from this episode. 

Q2 2026 Stock Market Outlook: Don’t Panic, Readjust

Read Dave’s complete archive

Got a question for Dave? Send it to [email protected]. 

You can follow Dave Sekera on X (@MstarMarkets) and on LinkedIn (Dave Sekera) to subscribe to his weekly newsletter and keep up to date with his latest research, and follow Morningstar on Facebook (MorningstarInc), X (@MorningstarInc), Instagram (MorningstarInc) and LinkedIn (Morningstar).

If you would like more information about any of the stocks Dave talked about today can visit Morningstar.com for more details. Subscribe to The Morning Filter to get notified when we post next. We’ll see you on Monday!

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode of The Morning Filter podcast, co-hosts Dave Sekera and Susan Dziubinski discuss the market’s response to new developments in the Iran war. They speculate what the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy may be for the rest of the year and whether this week’s inflation reports will drive more market volatility. They explain why Anthropic’s Mythos model only makes cybersecurity stocks more attractive and whether the worst is behind for Nike. Tune in to find out if Carnival or McCormick are stocks to buy after making news last week.

Small-cap stocks have held up relatively well in 2026, but are conditions right for the outperformance to continue? They close with several at-risk stocks to sell in the face of higher inflation.

Episode Highlights 

00:00:00 Welcome

00:01:37 The market’s response to the latest events in the Iran war and whether the Federal Reserve is more likely to raise interest rates or cut them this year.

00:08:56 If this week’s inflation reports will stoke volatility in the market.

00:14:25 Are cybersecurity stocks facing a new risk?

00:16:05 What to make of updates from Nike NKE, Carnival CCL, and McCormick MKC.

00:20:36 Whether small-cap stocks can continue to outperform in 2026.

00:26:21 At-risk stocks to sell before inflation heats up.

Read about topics from this episode. 

Register for Dave's Q2 Market Outlook webinar.

Read Dave’s complete archive.

Got a question for Dave? Send it to [email protected]. 

You can follow Dave Sekera on X (@MstarMarkets) and on LinkedIn (Dave Sekera) to subscribe to his weekly newsletter and keep up to date with his latest research, and follow Morningstar on Facebook (MorningstarInc), X (@MorningstarInc), Instagram (MorningstarInc) and LinkedIn (Morningstar).

If you would like more information about any of the stocks Dave talked about today can visit Morningstar.com for more details. Subscribe to The Morning Filter to get notified when we post next. We’ll see you on Monday!

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.