The Most Accurate Podcast

On this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast... Damien opted out! How early should Clyde Edwards-Helaire go in fantasy drafts? Who is the RB2 in Kansas City? Is Ronald Jones really "the main guy" in Tampa? Preston Williams seems on track for Week 1, how do the receiver opt-outs in Miami affect Williams, DeVante Parker and the other pass-catchers there? Diontae Johnson is '100 percent' after sports-hernia surgery--what's his outlook for 2020? How will the Cleveland passing game look after the arrival of Kevin Stefanski? Will an NFL team take a flier on Antonio Brown after he was suspended for eight games? Who is the sneakiest start for owners who want to stream the quarterback position? John and Anthony answer these questions (and more) before diving into John's running back and tight end sleepers, values and targets articles from the past week.

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On this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, 4for4's Chris Allen joins John Paulsen to discuss various quarterback strategies, going tier-by-tier to outline the opportunity cost of drafting a quarterback at different points throughout the draft. John makes his case for The Drew Brees Committee in 2020 and pitches Ryan Tannehill as a late-round option with upside. TJ Hernandez then joins John to discuss the various data points that indicate Josh Allen may be in line for a top tier season.

Articles by Chris Allen at 4for4
Articles by John Paulsen at 4for4
Josh Allen Can Be This Year's Lamar Jackson by TJ Hernandez
Subscribe to 4for4
TMAP Playlist on Spotify
Guest: Chris Allen - @ChrisAllenFFWX
Guest: TJ Hernandez - @TJHernandez
Host: John Paulsen - @4for4_John

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Summary

On this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, Sammy Reid joins Greg for a handful of news items, plus an in-depth preview of the quarterback position for 2020 fantasy football. Most of the buzz coming out of early training camps is related to opt-outs and the COVID-19 reserve list, but your hosts also touch on key injuries to Sony Michel, Jarvis Landry, and T.Y. Hilton. After that, it's all quarterback strategy. Who are this season's most overvalued and undervalued passers? Who are the toughest signal-callers to evaluate for fantasy? When is the right time to start drafting the position in a one-quarterback league? How about a two-quarterback league? Who are the "worst" QBs your hosts would be comfortable starting in those formats? Is stacking quarterbacks with pass-catchers important in seasonal leagues? Which field generals are Sammy and Greg drafting most often? Which ones do they wish they could draft more often? Tune in for answers to all these questions, plus even more quarterback draft strategy for fantasy football.

Links

The Gillcast (on Mondays) with Sammy Reid
Articles by Sammy Reid at Rotogrinders
COVID-19 Reserve and Opt-Out Tracker at 4for4.com
Consensus QB ADP at 4for4.com
Adjusted Fantasy Points Against at 4for4.com
Subscribe to 4for4
TMAP B-Sides Playlist on Spotify
Guest: Sammy Reid - @SammyReidFI
Host: Greg Smith - @gregsauce

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Summary

On this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, Alex Gelhar once again joins Greg to cover recent news and share some level-up realizations about fantasy football that made them better players and analysts. They kick things off discussing Jamal Adams' trade from the Jets to the Seahawks, Raheem Mostert's restructured contract with the 49ers, and the latest on COVID-19's impact on the NFL. After the news, there's a special announcement about the podcast, then your hosts dig into some of their level-up moments from their histories playing fantasy football. What did Alex take away from his time watching film? How valuable is playing in a lot of different league formats? Which "aha!" moments illuminated something important about draft and auction strategy? And how did Greg develop his approach on playing matchups in season? Tune in to find out.

Links

COVID-19 Reserve and Opt-Out Tracker at 4for4.com
The Backyard Banter Podcast, Ep. 21 with Matt Harmon and Alex Gelhar
Understanding WR Value in Fantasy Football Drafts by Alex Gelhar
Fantasy Player Debates at 4for4.com
Subscribe to 4for4
TMAP B-Sides Playlist on Spotify
Guest: Alex Gelhar - @AlexGelhar
Host: Greg Smith - @gregsauce

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Summary

On this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, Pat Fitzmaurice and Alex Gelhar join Greg to break down some news, talk top-tier quarterbacks, and investigate some fantasy X-factors for the 2020 NFL season. The show kicks off using Kelvin Harmon's ACL injury as an excuse to discuss the unnamed Washington franchise's fantasy outlook, then your hosts discuss the rumors of free agent wideouts joining the Seahawks. From there, the conversation turns to the top tiers of quarterbacks (10:52), splitting hairs between the consensus top-six passers before speculating on which lower-ranked signal-callers could crash the top-tier party under the right circumstances. The rest of the episode deals with X-factors for the upcoming season, including COVID-19 and how it should impact league setups and draft strategy (36:13), rookie rushers set to shake up established backfields (46:01), and a few other players from the Broncos, Colts, and Dolphins (1:02:37).

Links

The Fitz on Fantasy Podcast with Pat Fitzmaurice
TheFootballGirl.com
aFPA Strength of Schedule Hot Spots at 4for4.com
99 Stats But a Mitch Ain't One by John Paulsen
Fantasy Player Debates at 4for4.com
Subscribe to 4for4
TMAP B-Sides Playlist on Spotify
Guest: Pat Fitzmaurice - @Fitz_FF
Guest: Alex Gelhar - @AlexGelhar
Host: Greg Smith - @gregsauce

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Twitter: @4for4football
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Summary

On this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, Alex Gelhar joins Greg for a grab bag of fantasy football topics. They kick off the show by catching up on the news of Cam Newton joining the New England Patriots, who seems relatively affordable relative to name value based on evidence from recent Scott Fish Bowl drafts. Your hosts discuss whether or not he's a value if Newton's SFB cost holds, plus the impact he might have on his new arsenal of weapons. And while Cam has already found a new home, Raheem Mostert is seeking one of his own. Alex and Greg reevaluate the 49ers backfield in the wake of Mostert's trade demand, and they also take stock of San Francisco's passing game with Deebo Samuel now dealing with a Lisfranc injury. The show wraps up with a more theoretical dive into the wide receiver position, in search of potentially undervalued assets who could ascend in the right circumstances this season.

Links

Fantasy Player Debates at 4for4.com
Subscribe to 4for4
TMAP B-Sides Playlist on Spotify
Guest: Alex Gelhar - @AlexGelhar
Host: Greg Smith - @gregsauce

Follow Us

Twitter: @4for4football
Facebook: www.facebook.com/4for4football
YouTube: www.youtube.com/4for4football
Email: [email protected]

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Summary

On this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, Greg digs into how to account for Point Per Reception (PPR) and Point Per First Down (PP1D) scoring settings in fantasy football. The show starts with an overall guide for what to look for when trying to project receptions and first downs. What player attributes and on-field circumstances drive a player to catch more passes or earn more first downs for his team? After answering those general questions, Greg reviews specific players and player archetypes at running back (10:05), wide receiver (27:20), and tight end (40:03) who see their projected rankings change when the scoring settings for PPR and PP1D change.

Links

Rankings and Projections at 4for4.com
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TMAP B-Sides Playlist on Spotify
Host: Greg Smith - @gregsauce

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Summary

On this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, Pat Kerrane joins Greg to talk about the concept of projection errors and how those errors should impact our fantasy analysis, with a general slant toward the running back position and ZeroRB structural drafting. Your hosts identify key sources of projection errors, with conversation about which sources are most easily identified and exploited. The discussion then turns toward specific cases where projection errors figure to pop up for the 2020 NFL season. Which teams are the most difficult to project? Which teams are likely being over-projected, and which teams are likely being under-projected? Tune in to find out.

Links

ZeroRB with Pat Kerrane on the Establish The Run Podcast
How to Hit on a Later-Round RB by Pat Kerrane
Subscribe to 4for4
TMAP B-Sides Playlist on Spotify
Guest: Pat Kerrane - @PatKerrane
Host: Greg Smith - @gregsauce

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Summary

On this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, TJ Hernandez joins Greg to dig into general strategy around the quarterback position in fantasy football. They springboard from TJ's recent article about potential studs and duds at QB to discuss other players at the position who could over or under perform expectations in 2020. After those player-specific evaluations, your hosts zoom out and discuss their overall strategies for drafting quarterbacks, including some notes on how the late-round quarterback approach is changing in 1QB leagues and how to mine value at quarterback in 2QB/Superflex leagues. The show winds down with Greg going solo on how scoring settings affect relative quarterback values, using 4for4's projects to identify which QBs rise and fall depending on the values of passing touchdowns and interceptions.

Links

5 Quarterback Studs & Duds for 2020 by TJ Hernandez
Strength of Schedule Hot Spots at 4for4.com
Subscribe to 4for4
TMAP B-Sides Playlist on Spotify
Guest: TJ Hernandez - @TJHernandez
Host: Greg Smith - @gregsauce

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Twitter: @4for4football
Facebook: www.facebook.com/4for4football
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Let's talk tight ends! Is the position top-heavy again this year or is there value to be had in the later rounds? Is it worthwhile to draft a stud tight end in the first three rounds? What about the middle rounds--was Tyler Higbee's breakout for real or a function of the Rams' offense late last year? Will Hayden Hurst pick up where Austin Hooper left off? Will there be enough targets for Hooper in Cleveland so he can maintain his value? What should owners expect from Gronk after a year off? Is Blake Jarwin's breakout canceled after the Cowboys' drafted CeeDee Lamb? Was Mike Gesicki's late-season production a sign of things to come? Can Jonnu Smith step into the No. 2 receiving role in Tennessee's run-heavy offense? Can Ian Thomas capitalize on Greg Olsen's departure? Will Chris Herndon pick up where he left off after a good rookie season? John and Anthony discuss these topics (and more) on the latest episode of The Most Accurate Podcast.

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