The Most Accurate Podcast

Let's talk wide receivers! Will Allen Robinson thrive with a likely quarterback change in Chicago? How will the Rams' offense change without Brandin Cooks in the lineup? Is Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf the WR1 in Seattle? Is Odell Beckham destined for a bounce-back season with a new regime in Cleveland? Will Courtland Sutton build on a breakout season with the addition of Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler? Is DeVante Parker the clear WR1 in Miami with Preston Williams back? What does the arrival of Philip Rivers do to T.Y. Hilton's short-term outlook? What should owners expect from A.J. Green in 2020? John and Anthony discuss these questions (and more) before looking at a few late-round receiver gems.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Let's talk John's running back rankings! Are there any concerns with anyone in the top 10? Is Kenyan Drake for real? Is Miles Sanders a safe first-round pick with rumors that the Eagles are looking to add a backup? Is Nick Chubb going to turn in RB1 numbers with Kareem Hunt siphoning off touches? Should owners expect more of the same from Austin Ekeler and Chris Carson? How will the Denver backfield shake out? What should owners expect out of James Conner, Mark Ingram and Le'Veon Bell? Will Raheem Mostert continue his late-season production from last year? Who are the mid- to late-round backs that have a chance to outperform their current draft position? John and Anthony answer these questions and more on the latest episode of The Most Accurate Podcast.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

John and Anthony are back! Will Clyde Edwards-Helaire lead the KC backfield as a rookie? Can Jonathan Taylor earn bell cow duties early in the season? Has D'Andre Swift already beat out Kerryon Johnson? Is Cam Akers destined for RB1 duties in L.A.? Can Mark Ingram hold off JK Dobbins this season? Who will start Week 1 in Tampa--Ronald Jones or Ke'Shawn Vaughn? Is Zack Moss basically Frank Gore 2.0 in Buffalo? Which under-the-radar rookie back does John covet in the later rounds? Is the quarterback position deep again this year? Are there any early-round QBs worth targeting? Who are the later-round quarterbacks that represent good value at current ADP? John and Anthony discuss these questions and more on the latest edition of The Most Accurate Podcast.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Summary

On this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, Eric Moody joins Greg to share first impressions of the 2020 NFL schedule for fantasy football. The conversation opens on the importance (or lack thereof) of bye weeks in fantasy analysis, touching on the schedule's pair of six-team off weeks, as well as the curious case of the two squads with Week 13 byes. Then the bulk of the episode is spent discussing strength of schedule, plus winners and losers at all the prominent fantasy positions. Your hosts lay out some of the limitations associated with strength of schedule analysis, what they look for when they assess a team's schedule, and their preferences to lean toward early-season or late-season matchup advantages. After those general topics are out of the way, the team-specific and player-specific takes start to flow. Tune in to find out which fantasy assets you can target and which you might want to avoid based on schedule concerns.

Links

Strength of Schedule by Projected Win Totals from TJ Hernandez
Adjusted Fantasy Points Against (aFPA) at 4for4
Fantasy Rankings and Projections from John Paulsen
Positional Rankings Breakdowns by John Paulsen
Eric Moody's Archives at 4for4
James Conner's Demise is Greatly Exaggerated by Justin Edwards
Subscribe to 4for4
TMAP B-Sides Playlist on Spotify
Guest: Eric Moody - @EricNMoody
Host: Greg Smith - @gregsauce

Follow Us

Twitter: @4for4football
Facebook: www.facebook.com/4for4football
YouTube: www.youtube.com/4for4football
Email: [email protected]

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Summary

On this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, Danny Kelly joins Greg to weigh in on the 2020 draft now that we've had another week to marinate in the results. Danny makes special note of the nearly unprecedented early run on offensive skill position players and then weighs in on some NFL teams with developing identities, including the Bengals and Broncos. Your hosts then discuss some non-fantasy players who should have a big impact on the fantasy game, including lineman from both sides of the ball. The bulk of this episode from there is spent dissecting the rookie wide receiver class. How should we balance optimism and pessimism for prospects in fantasy? Which teams are the best and worst at evaluating and drafting pass-catchers? Which rookie wideouts are currently undervalued? Your hosts weigh in on these questions and more, then they look to disappointments from past drafts to find corollaries to this season, in the hopes of avoiding potential traps. The show winds down with an accounting of some under-the-radar offenses worth investing in when drafting fantasy, both long-term for dynasty and short-term for redraft. 

Links

The Ringer's 2020 NFL Draft Guide
Danny Kelly's Archives at The Ringer
The Dantasy Football Podcast
Subscribe to 4for4
TMAP B-Sides Playlist on Spotify
Guest: Danny Kelly - @DannyBKelly
Host: Greg Smith - @gregsauce

Follow Us

Twitter: @4for4football
Facebook: www.facebook.com/4for4football
YouTube: www.youtube.com/4for4football
Email: [email protected]

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Summary

On this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, John Daigle joins Greg to recap the 2020 NFL Draft from a fantasy football perspective. The show begins with bigger-picture takeaways like the proliferation of a "best player available" mentality and the diminishing number of high-volume fantasy options (and not just at running back). From there, your hosts dive into positional breakdowns. Running backs come first (12:06), starting with John and Greg's picks for biggest winners among incumbent ball-carriers. Then the top rookie rushers get evaluated, both on their own and in terms of impacts on their new veteran teammates. Later, after reviewing the most interesting rushers from Day 2 and 3, the conversation turns to wide receivers (37:55). Again, winners and losers among veterans kicks off the positional discussion before your hosts dig into the rookie class. They discuss how much Henry Ruggs might be hurt by the quarterback play of Derek Carr, which other first-round rookies are the best bets to produce in year-one, plus the most intriguing pass-catching prospects from outside the first round. Quarterbacks are next (1:04:22), with takes on multiple winners and one obvious loser among veterans at the position. Your hosts also touch on the outlooks for Jameis Winston and Cam Newton in new homes, then they discuss how to rank the incoming rookies, whether or not fantasy gamers should be worried about Carson Wentz, and the curious case of PJ "Don't Call Me Phillip" Walker playing behind Teddy Bridgewater in Carolina. The episode winds down with a brief section on tight ends (1:20:38), tabbing winners and losers among non-rookies, then highlighting a couple of the position's more intriguing inbound prospects.

Links

Rotoworld.com
2020 NFL Draft Fantasy Recap (Round 1) by John Paulsen
2020 NFL Draft Fantasy Recap (Rounds 2-3) by John Paulsen
2020 NFL Draft Fantasy Recap (Rounds 4-7) by Brandon Niles
Why Jalen Hurts was a Great Pick by Philadelphia by Kevin Cole
Subscribe to 4for4
TMAP B-Sides Playlist on Spotify
Guest: John Daigle - @notJDaigle
Host: Greg Smith - @gregsauce

Follow Us

Twitter: @4for4football
Facebook: www.facebook.com/4for4football
YouTube: www.youtube.com/4for4football
Email: [email protected]

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Summary

On this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, George Kritikos and Nick Whalen join Greg to preview the 2020 NFL Draft. They warm up with recent news on Rob Gronkowski's return and the trade rumors surrounding Leonard Fournette. From there, your hosts share some general strategy regarding potential impacts of COVID-19 on fantasy, how quickly rookies should take to start producing in the pros, and how to approach the dynasty trade market around the NFL Draft. The conversation turns next to draft capital and how it should be weighed differently for each position, followed by an accounting of which NFL teams should be targeting which positions. The show closes with a comparison of the top-12 rookies for George and Nick pre-draft. 

Links

NFL Draft Prospect Best Fits by George Kritikos
The Graduates by Nick Whalen
Yards Created by Graham Barfield
Subscribe to 4for4
TMAP B-Sides Playlist on Spotify
Guest: George Kritikos - @RotoHack
Guest: Nick Whalen - @_NickWhalen
Host: Greg Smith - @gregsauce

Follow Us

Twitter: @4for4football
Facebook: www.facebook.com/4for4football
YouTube: www.youtube.com/4for4football
Email: [email protected]

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Summary

On this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, Anthony Amico joins Greg for another best ball draft strategy bonanza, but the episode begins with a more general news discussion of the recent trade of Brandin Cooks from the Rams to the Texans, plus Kansas City's signing of DeAndre Washington. From there, your hosts dive into best ball, starting with an assessment of the ZeroRB draft strategy. Anthony makes his case for how it can work and details some of the nuances to keep in mind when navigating through a structured drafting approach. Next, the conversation turns to Anthony's machine learning prospect models for running backs and wide receivers, explaining how he uses the models' hit-rate estimates to help find values with rookies in best ball drafts. Around the 25-minute mark, Greg and Anthony dive headfirst into wide receivers, kicking things off with Corey Davis, AJ Brown, and DeVante Parker as examples of some of the different types of wideouts you can target in best ball. Then they go back to the top of wide receiver ADP and work their way down, from potential busts in the top tier down to rookies and other intriguing dart throws in the double-digit rounds. As if that wasn't enough, tight end talk kicks off around the 63-minute mark. Your hosts identify some of the best late-round values at the position, then use that frame of reference to discuss which higher-ranked tight ends are worth their best ball draft costs.

Links

RB Prospect Model by Anthony Amico
WR Prospect Model by Anthony Amico
Best Ball ADP at 4for4.com
FFPC WR Win Rates by Andrew Fleischer
Fanball WR Win Rates by Andrew Fleischer
FFPC TE Win Rates by Jennifer Eakins
Fanball TE Win Rates by Jennifer Eakins
How Draft Dates Impact Best Ball Scoring by Justin Edwards
7 Players to Target in Best Ball before the NFL Draft by 4for4's Staff
Subscribe to 4for4
TMAP B-Sides Playlist on Spotify
Guest: Anthony Amico - @amicsta
Host: Greg Smith - @gregsauce

Follow Us

Twitter: @4for4football
Facebook: www.facebook.com/4for4football
YouTube: www.youtube.com/4for4football
Email: [email protected]

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Summary

On this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, TJ Calkins joins Greg for a full helping of draft strategy for best ball leagues. A quick refresher of the format kicks off the show, followed by some top-down thoughts on diversifying player exposure across various best ball drafts. The bulk of the show then drills down into individual positions, starting with running back, followed by defense and quarterback. Is there a contrarian case to be made against Christian McCaffrey as the first overall pick? Does Aaron Jones' fantasy value merit his ADP's rise into the first round? Which 2020 running backs have the best chance of reproducing the types of value spikes that Jones, Austin Ekeler, and Miles Sanders returned drafters in 2019? What other values are there to be had at RB, and how late can those potential values be expected to last in drafts? What is the right number of defenses to draft, and in what rounds is it worth considering them? Which mid-tier and bottom-tier defensive units have the best shot at out-kicking their coverage this season? At what point in a draft do the top quarterbacks become values? Do best ball leagues with an overall prize change the calculus of when to draft passers? How much of a premium should be put on rushing quarterbacks? Which QBs provide the most value relative to their current ADPs, and which should be avoided? When is it correct to stack a quarterback with his offensive teammates? Tune in for takes on all these questions and more.

Links

FFPC Roster Construction Strategy by Chris Allen
Fanball Roster Construction Strategy by Chris Allen
Fanball Player Win Rates by Andrew Fleischer
Fanball RB Win Rates by Jennifer Eakins
FFPC RB Win Rates by Jennifer Eakins
Subscribe to 4for4
TMAP B-Sides Playlist on Spotify
Guest: TJ Calkins - @TJCalkins
Host: Greg Smith - @gregsauce

Follow Us

Twitter: @4for4football
Facebook: www.facebook.com/4for4football
YouTube: www.youtube.com/4for4football
Email: [email protected]

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Summary

On this episode of The Most Accurate Podcast, Mike Woellert joins Greg to dig into all things defense from the realm of fantasy football. The show kicks off with a discussion around how the offseason has reshaped the landscape of team defenses and special teams (D/ST). Then the remainder of the episode is dedicated to individual defensive players (IDP). Which NFL teams won and which teams lost on the defensive side of the ball through free agency? Why should fantasy players consider trying out IDP leagues, and what can they expect once they dive in? Which veteran IDP assets have seen their fantasy values shift over the offseason? Who are the most valuable defensive rookies in the 2020 class for IDP fantasy, and where should they be picked in dynasty rookie drafts? Greg and Mike have you covered on all these questions, so tune in and learn how to dial up the perfect fantasy defense regardless of how you play.

Links

Anatomy of a Perfect IDP Fantasy Football Draft by Mike Woellert (2019)
Subscribe to 4for4
TMAP B-Sides Playlist on Spotify
Guest: Mike Woellert - @Mike_Woellert
Host: Greg Smith - @gregsauce

Follow Us

Twitter: @4for4football
Facebook: www.facebook.com/4for4football
YouTube: www.youtube.com/4for4football
Email: [email protected]

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.