The New Realist Podcast

In Act II of the rap-musical Hamilton, George Washington reminds Alexander Hamilton that, “winning is easy, governing’s harder.” His assessment of winning may not hold up today, but his take on governing does.

In the wake of the Democrats big night, I spoke with Bloomberg’s Joe Mathieu about several takeaways from this historic off-off year election. Among the issues we addressed was given victories by Democrats as diverse as Zohran Mamdani in NYC, Abigail Spanberger in Virginia, and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey, is democratic socialism or centrism the future of the party?

The answer lies in part on the ability of these newly elected officials to ‘deliver’ on the needs of their constituents. In addition to fulfilling their promises they must be careful not to fall into a familiar trap - one that President Trump is currently in - over-reading their mandate.

We also discussed the historic nature of Mamdani’s victory in NYC as he is set to become the first Muslim Mayor of NYC, the second Democratic Socialist of the capital of capitalism, and the youngest Mayor in more than a century. His meteoric rise in less than a year from a relatively unknown backbencher in the Assembly to Mayor of the largest city in the country - one who, in the process, beat back a challenge from a well-known and funded member of the Cuomo-dynasty (twice and by large percentages) will go down as one of the most impressive electoral victories in history.

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While the government shutdown barreled towards becoming the longest in American history and over forty million food insecure Americans lost SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) benefits, President Trump spent Friday hosting an opulent Great Gatsby themed Halloween Party at Mara Lago. This was followed by a return to “60 Minutes,” the interview with Norah O’Donnell was his first with the program and CBS since their then parent company, Paramount Global, settled a lawsuit with Trump in July for a reported $16m.

The official theme of Friday’s lavish event was, “The Great Gatsby, the Roaring ‘20s and ‘A little party never killed nobody,’” a reference to the song from the 2013 film adaptation of the F. Scott Fitzgerald novel. You don’t have to look far for reaction – humorous and otherwise – as to how insensitive and tone-deaf the party was, particularly given the timing. This criticism only intensified when pictures of the party’s burlesque dancers and extensive food spreads were shared on social media.

Jon Stewart pointed out the irony of the party’s slogan, “a little party never killed nobody,” given the tragic ending of The Great Gatsby, and also joked the party felt like a final celebration before the release of the Epstein files.

Jimmy Kimmel noted the theme was ironic considering the novel critiques excessive wealth and moral emptiness.

Online the event was described as “America’s Hunger Games cosplay,” contrasting the lavishness with the loss of food assistance

After the event, Trump’s interview with “60 Minutes” aired. Watching it, and how out of touch the president is with the lived experiences of most Americans, it is easy to see why the choice of a Gatsby themed party the same day millions faced going hungry, did not raise any eyebrows with the president or others in the White House. Case in point, this is how Trump responded when O’Donnell asked him about rising grocery prices. Note, this came after the President celebrated how well the stock market is doing and by extension people’s 401(k)s - with little recognition that not everyone is invested in the market and many people do not have 401(k)s.

NORAH O’DONNELL: “But there have been-- grocery prices are up--

... they’ve seen their grocery prices go up, inflation—”

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: “No, you’re wrong. They went up under Biden. Right now they’re going down. Other than beef, which we’re working on, which we can solve very quickly. So the beef-- the ranchers have really taken a drubbing over a 30-year period. Because of what I’ve done, the ranchers have done well.

But with that, the beef price went up a little bit. We’re gonna get the beef price down very quickly. It’ll be very nice, just like eggs. When I first took over, eggs were double, triple, quadruple what they were. This was because of Biden.”

Yet prices are up – on most groceries (except, interestingly eggs). Trump ran and won promising to address affordability, prices, and make the lives of everyday Americans better, particularly as it pertains to the economy. And despite his claims, they are not feeling better – in fact polls show they are feeling worse.

This is reflected in recent polling. A new NBC News poll which shows Trump’s approval on the economy underwater, with only 34% of Americans saying he has lived up to expectation on the economy and a full 2/3 saying he has fallen short.

Likewise, a recent CNN poll which found that 6/10 Americans say Trump has made the economy worse, including 2/3 of independents, 2/3 of younger voters, and ¾ of people of color.

I spoke with Joe Mathieu on Bloomberg News about these and other issues on the eve of Election Day, the first time we will see Americans go to the polls since the election of Trump a year ago tomorrow.

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Has Donald Trump ruled out a third term? No, instead what he ruled out on Air Force One was running for a third term.

“If you read it, it’s pretty clear,” Trump said. “I’m not allowed to run. It’s too bad.”

“Based on what I read, I guess I’m not allowed to run,” he later said. “So we’ll see what happens.”

This came just two days after he told reports on Air Force One flying from Malaysia to Tokyo that “I would love to do it.”

Note Trump’s words:

(1) he would “love to do it”

(2) he is not allowed to “run”

(3) we should wait to “see what happens”

If he can’t run, what is there to wait for?

In all likelihood what he has in mind here is following a playbook that many budding autocrats have used - not to run again, but rather to do what he has already done more than fifty times during the last nine months, declare a state of emergency and ‘agree to stay on to address it.’

This is historically how many autocrats have held on to their positions. What is Rahm’s Rule, “never let an emergency go to waste?” And if in an autocrats hands, if there isn’t one, create it.

So when Speaker Mike Johnson tells us, not to worry, Trump is just having

“a good time… trolling the Democrats, whose hair is on fire about the very prospect.” Don’t worry, he’s just trying to sell more of those ‘Trump 28’ caps, that are so popular

Despite Johnson’s attempts to tell everyone to look away, Trump - who always says the quiet part aloud - said he would “love to do it.”

And Steve Bannon told The Economist that there was “a plan” to circumvent the 22nd Amendment.

Note, Bannon did not say ‘Trump is going to run in ‘28,’ instead he said:

“Trump is going to be president in ’28, and people ought to just get accommodated with that… At the appropriate time, we’ll lay out what the plan is.”

Which, as I told Joe Mathieu on Bloomberg’s ‘Balance of Power’ is in line with the behavior he has been exhibiting. After all, is someone who tears down the wing of a historic house to build a ballroom that holds 999 people really exhibiting ‘renters behavior’?

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It’s much bigger than baseball.

The booing baseball fans heard when the American National Anthem was played at the start of Game 1 of the World Series had nothing to do with baseball. It was a reflection of the tension between the US and Canada that has escalated since President Trump took office and imposed stringent tariffs on our largest trading partner.

The enmity has only worsened in the last few days as Trump, angered by a TV ad run by Canada’s Ontario province, ended trade talks with Canada. The ad, which Trump described as “fraudulent,” replayed portions of a 1987 speech by Ronald Reagan in which he said tariffs are an economic disaster.

After Trump’s outburst, Ontario to promise to stop running the ad by Monday. That was not enough for the president who, after the ad ran again this weekend, took to Truth Social to decry it and hit Canada with an additional 10% tariff.

“Their Advertisement was to be taken down, IMMEDIATELY, but they let it run last night during the World Series, knowing that it was a FRAUD… Because of their serious misrepresentation of the facts, and hostile act, I am increasing the Tariff on Canada by 10% over and above what they are paying now.”

I spoke with Bloomberg’s Joe Mathieu on Balance of Power about the ad and Trump’s tariffs regime. In that discussion I noted that the ad is correct, Reagan did oppose widespread tariffs of the kind Trump imposed on ‘Liberation Day’; favoring instead targeted and.limited tariffs to be used only when absolutely necessary. Reagan was note alone, since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which led to a collapse in global trade and a worsening economic crisis, most members of the GOP have decried protectionist policies.

Consequently, the notion that the ad is false or fraud is disingenuous.

There is no need to take my word on that, however, you can hear Reagan’s April 25 1987 radio address in full on YouTube.

What Reagan knew was that tariffs are not only bad economically, but politically as well. After all, in the wake of Smoot, the Republican Party lost Congress for almost 60 years.

Polls today show just how bad tariffs may be for the GOP going forward as well. According to the latest surveys, the majority of Americans oppose Trump’s tariff regime both generally and specifically, as it pertains to Canada. As CNN’s Harry Enten noted, “the net popularity of Canada among Americans sits at +49 percentage points. For Trump, that figure sits at minus-10 percentage points.”

These numbers are another reminder, that we should not discount the wisdom of our ancestors; what was bad for the economy and politics in Hoover and Reagans’ times, remains so today and President Trump would be wise to heed his predecessors’ counsel.

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For two months, the US has been carrying out lethal strikes in international waters on small Venezuelan boats in the Caribbean and Pacific Oceans. The strikes have hit numerous boats (all alleged to be carrying illicit drugs) and killed more than forty people (all alleged to be drug smugglers).

So far, however, the Trump administration has not put forth evidence to either the American public or Congress to support these claims.

As I noted here weeks ago, the legality (both under domestic and international law) and the strategy of these strikes are questionable. Nevertheless, when asked this week whether he needs to go to Congress to get authorization for the continued use of lethal force, President Trump said he may, but probably does not need to; moreover he warned land strikes could be next:

“The land is going to be next... And we may go to the Senate; we may go to the Congress and tell them about it, but I can’t imagine they’d have any problem with it.”

In my last post on this topic, I discussed why this policy is questionable legally, constitutionally, morally, and strategically. Today, the focus is on the politics of it - none of which make much sense given Trump’s commitment to MAGA.

It is well documented that human rights, civil and political rights, worsened under the rule of Hugo Chavez and his successor, Nicolas Maduro. The question is not whether Venezuelans are suffering, but what is the goal of the Trump administration and is this approach the most sound way to achieve it? Are they hoping to overturn the Maduro government? Are they hoping to create unrest in the country and its neighbors to achieve regime change?

The US has a long and sordid history of regime change and it is not hard to point to many examples where the policy has failed dismally - look no further than Iraq. Ironically, Trump has long said he was against the Iraq War. Moreover, he criticized many of his opponents in the 2016 election for supporting it, which makes this approach to Venezuela - which sounds eerily like the Bush approach to Iraq - that much more perplexing.

Second, what happened to ‘America first’? President Trump ran promising to keep the country out of endless wars, yet now he is suggesting we may see boots on the ground in Venezuela? He ran promising to ‘make America great again,’ beginning first with the economy, yet as our own government remains shutdown and prices are climbing, he is spending more time on issues overseas, in the Middle East, Asia, South and Latin America, than he is on the troubles plaguing the U.S.

Third, not only does this approach toe Venezuela fly in the face of his long-standing criticism of endless wars generally and Iraq specifically, but it stands in opposition to the views of many in his base. Consider Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) who has spoken out against the policy for several reasons, including the fact that about a quarter of the time our information regarding who is on those boats is faulty. This is one reason why, in a country governed by the rule of law, we don’t shoot first and ask questions later. Instead, everyone is assumed innocent until proven guilty, including drug traffickers. That is why, as Paul noted, instead of shooting first, the US should continue its long standing practice of having the coast guard stop and board the ship, if there are illicit drugs on board they can then be handled legally.

Fourth, if the US continues to attack boats from other nations in international waters and puts boots on the ground in an effort to remove Maduro, can we really continue to cry foul at Russian President Putin for going into Ukraine and attempting to remove President Zelenskyy? Can we really take on China if it decides to invade Taiwan?

I spoke with Bloomberg’s Joe Mathieu and Tyler Kendall on Balance of Power about these and other difficult issues raised by Venezuelan boat attacks.

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Since the October 7 attack by Hamas and the pro-Palestinian protests that followed, President Trump and the GOP have made the point that there is not room for antisemitism of any kind on college campuses or anywhere else in the U.S. They are right on that. Why then did the White House not come out as strongly when Politico made public a series of racist texts sent by the presidents nominee for Special Counsel Paul Ingrassia? This includes one in which Ingrassia described himself as having “a Nazi streak.”

After Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) announced that Ingrassia did not have the votes necessary for confirmation, Ingrassia said he would not appear at a confirmation hearing that was scheduled to be held today. Later, the White House withdrew its nomination, but missing was any of the language we heard from the White House when college students were accused of deplorable anti-semitic activities.

Moreover, as far as we know - Ingrassia is still serving in the White House as Liaison to the Department of Homeland Security. In short, while he is not going to get the Special Counsel role as a result of his antisemitic statements, he is deemed appropriate to still be serving in the White House.

It is also worth noting that Ingrassia has a history of these types of white supremacist statements, has met with Nick Fuentes and at least according to one Republican Senator, James Lankford (R-Okla), was unqualified for the job to begin with.

This comes at the same time that one of the leading candidates running to be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine, Graham Platner, acknowledged he covered up a tattoo he got during his time in the military that resembles a Nazi symbol. So far, no major Democrats have withdrawn their support for Platner as a result. Both stories lend support to the concerns of many that we are, on both sides, in a race to the bottom.

You can hear a bit more in my conversation with Joe Mathieu on Bloomberg’s Balance of Power where we addressed the Ingrassia story and other news of the day.

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Tonight is the final debate in the NYC Mayoral race before polls open for early voting on Saturday.

Two major things to watch for:

(1) Does Mamdani make any unforced errors? If not, he is in a strong position to be the next Mayor of NYC

(2) Do Jeffries &/or Schumer finally endorse Mamdani? So far, they have been silent

I spoke with Bloomberg’s Joe Mathieu and Mario Parker just after the last debate between Democrat Zohran Mamdani, Independent and former Governor Andrew Cuomo, and Republican Curtis Sliwa.

With Mamdani up double-digits in this three-way race, some in the anti-Mamdani wing were hoping that Sliwa would drop out, giving Cuomo the two-way match up he has been hoping for. But after the last debate it seems clear Sliwa is enjoying himself too much to go anywhere and Cuomo hasn’t been able to lay a glove on Mamdani who continues to have a commanding lead in the polls.

If Mamdani does not make any unforced errors tonight, he will likely be headed to Gracie Mansion. He will enter office as the youngest NYC Mayor in a century and the second democratic socialist.

He will also be seen as representative of a new generation of Democratic leaders and a likely lightening-rod in the upcoming midterm elections.

This may be why we haven’t seen an endorsement yet from Mamdani’s fellow-New Yorkers, Democratic leader of the House, Hakeem Jeffries and Minority Leader of the Senate Chuck Schumer. Jeffries has hinted he may endorse before polls open. If he and Schumer continue to remain silent, it is a sign that they are afraid an endorsement of Mamdani will give Republicans an opening to label all Democrats as socialists or communists, something we have already seen from President Trump.

Also, watch for some additional only-in-NY-politics questions. During the last debate it was “What’s your bodega order?”

Sliwa: “Egg and cheese on a roll, No salt.”

Cuomo: “Same thing, No salt also.”

Mamdani: “Egg and cheese on a roll with jalapeños.”

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Ukraine President Vladimir Zelensky’s visit to the White House today was the third during President Trump’s second term. The two have had a rocky relationship, but as Zelensky’s suit today portends, he has become much more adept at handling Trump than he was during his visit earlier this year.

One good sign for Zelensky, he was invited to stay in Blair House last night, a sign of respect that he was not afforded during his previous visits.

The visit comes after Trump’s conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday. A read out of the call indicates, like Zelensky and so many other world leaders, Putin is well versed at dealing with Trump and started the call by congratulating him on his success in the Middle East. He also seemed to have given Trump much to think about as it pertains to the sale of Tomahawk Missiles to Ukraine, something that the President of the US seemed more open to before the call than after, as well as the issue of supporting the bipartisan US Senates call for more sanctions on Russia.

The meeting comes as both Zelensky and Trump are facing challenges in their respective homes. For Trump, that includes signs of growing unrest from his base who – after a week of Trump’s focus on foreign policy – is starting to suggest he has abandoned his America First agenda and has taken his eye off mounting domestic crises including a government shutdown and an affordability crisis.

This is evidenced most recently by Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) who, in a recent interview with Axios described the administration’s agenda as “America Last”:

It’s a revolving door at the White House of foreign leaders when Americans are, you know, screaming from their lungs... If me saying those things are considered breaking with my party, then what is the Republican Party? I thought we were America First?

In advance of the Zelensky-Trump meeting, I spoke with Joe Mathieu on Bloomberg’s Balance of Power about what to expect.

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Secretary of Defense (or War as President Trump likes to call him) Pete Hegseth did something that many have been unable to do, he united a very competitive DC press corps. This includes news outlets from the left, such as MSNBC, and the right, such as his former employer, Fox News.

All major media and news outlets have declined to sign the DOD’s new rules for covering the Pentagon. Instead, the reporters handed in their press badges in a very heartening show of unity and support for the First Amendment.

The rules, which Hegseth released last month, would have required reporters covering the DOD to agree to an unprecedented number of stringent regulations regarding what they can and cannot report.

It is hard to think of anything even roughly comparable in history, more deeply antithetical to the First Amendment, or at odds with our democratic heritage.

Hegseth and everyone at the DOD owe it to the American people to answer questions from reporters about the work they are doing. After all, this is a department with an annual budget of $1 Trillion, which is responsible for making life and death decisions regarding the safety of our men and women in uniform, as well as the security of the United States.

Hegseth’s attempt to control the flow of information is alarming and unprecedented, but it is a strategic mistake. As I told Joe Mathieu on Bloomberg today, the adage ‘keep your friends close and your enemies closer’ comes to mind. If Hegseth really sees the press as his nemesis, the last thing he should do is shut them out of the building. Reporters will not stop digging, speaking to sources, or reporting; they will just do it without being able to roam the halls of the DOD, getting feedback from the people who run it and a better understanding of the challenges they are facing.

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Like many presidents in the modern era, President Trump is enjoying more success overseas than he is at home. After a trip to celebrate the cease fire in the Middle East, Trump arrived back on American soil to a government shutdown now in its 14th day and one which the Speaker of the House Mike Johnson warned over the weekend may be the longest in American history.

Speaking to the Knesset in Jerusalem yesterday, Trump described himself once again as a world class deal-maker, a line he has repeatedly said since he entered public life.

That’s all I do in my life. I make deals. I’m good at it. I’ve always been good at it.

There is no question he deserves a good deal of credit for getting the cease fire deal. Why not employ these same skills domestically to bring the two sides together to reopen the government? Particularly given the pain the shutdown is inflicting on everyone from government workers to American citizens, including young children, millions of whom will lose SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) benefits if the shutdown persists?

Instead, Trump’s focus today was greeting the President of Argentina, Javier Milei, his old friend and supporter; and approving a $20B bailout for Milei’s country. The bailout, using $20B in US tax payer money is timed to assist Milei, wildly unpopular in his own country and sometimes described as the ‘Madman’ and other times as the ‘Chainsaw President’ get re-elected in Argentina’s upcoming election.

Milei, who is a close confidant of Elon Musk and inspired his DOGE effort, came into office in 2023 promising to solve Argentina’s economic problems by cutting government. Once he took office, he abolished over half the governments ministries (i.e., education, transportation, environment, employment, social security, and many more) laid off a large number of federal workers, cut salaries, benefits, pensions, and the like. The result was increasing poverty, hunger, inflation, and prices.

I spoke with Bloomberg News’ Joe Mathieu today about the shutdown and the curious case of this US bailout of Argentina and what sense it makes coming from a president elected to put American first.

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