The Numbers

For most of the four years between 2019 and 2023, the Liberals and Conservatives were deadlocked in the polls with each party hovering a little over 30%, give or take a few points. Then the bottom fell out for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals. But are we entering into another phase of a deadlocked, polarized electorate — this time with Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives both stuck around 40%?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss what could be the new normal. Plus, the NDP gets an interesting new entrant into its leadership race and the government announces a change to the budgeting schedule that could have some repercussions for the electoral calendar. In New Brunswick, the PCs hold one of their seats in a provincial byelection, while in Newfoundland and Labrador we’re only one week out election day. Where do things stand there? We also discuss some new polling numbers from Quebec and British Columbia, where David Eby seems to be benefiting from a divided (and infighting) opposition.

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Mark Carney seems to be more popular than his Liberals, while Pierre Poilievre seems to be less popular than his Conservatives. Are these numbers sustainable for either party leader — and what would it mean if these numbers held going into an election campaign? Plus, what to make of the NDP’s better polls as the party’s leadership campaign takes off?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest in federal polling trends. We also chat about the ongoing (but still unpolled) campaign in Newfoundland and Labrador, some surprising polling numbers out of Alberta and some less surprising numbers out of municipal races in Calgary, Edmonton, Montreal and Quebec City (a well as in Ontario). Then, Philippe is back with a new edition of The Quiz.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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It’s been a tough time for party leaders. After Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie resigned following her 57% leadership review score, Marit Stiles of the Ontario NDP managed only a little better with 68%. Over in British Columbia, John Rustad of the Conservatives scored 70%. While Crombie couldn’t hold on, Stiles and Rustad plan to stick around. But what number is good enough to stay on as leader — and what number should Pierre Poilievre aim for in his upcoming leadership review to keep his job safe?

This week on The Numbers, we chat about these leadership review results and what they mean. We also discuss new federal polling numbers and the opening moves of the NDP leadership race for contenders Avi Lewis and Heather McPherson. Plus, we break down some new provincial survey results out of Quebec, Manitoba and Nova Scotia. Then, Philippe boosts the difficulty level in this week’s edition of The Quiz.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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The MPs are back in Ottawa and already the big question on Parliament Hill is whether or not the government will survive the budget vote later this fall. Just a few seats short of a majority, Mark Carney’s Liberals still require the support (or abstention) of at least one other party in the House of Commons. Do any of those parties have an incentive to go back to the polls sooner rather than later?

This week on The Numbers, we break down the current state of the polls and what they say about the stability of this Parliament. We also discuss the newly-launched Newfoundland and Labrador election campaign, Bonnie Crombie’s resignation as leader of the Ontario Liberals and some provincial polling numbers from coast to coast.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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Parliamentarians return to Ottawa next week for what will be the first showdown between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in the House of Commons. It’ll be the official kick-off for the fall political season. Who will come out on top?

This week on The Numbers, after delving into the latest poll numbers we play a little game of “buy or sell” — buying the parties and leaders we think will end the season higher in the polls than where they are today, and selling those we think could end up in a worse spot.

Plus, we also chat about an upcoming provincial byelection in New Brunswick and break down the latest goings-on in Quebec, where Premier François Legault’s government is up against the ropes as a new poll shows the CAQ at rock bottom.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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The first two serious contenders for the federal NDP leadership have emerged in Heather McPherson and Avi Lewis, according to recent reporting. But the challenge they have ahead of them to rehabilitate the ailing New Democratic Party is enormous. Could the path laid out by Manitoba’s Wab Kinew be the answer?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss where the NDP goes from here as its leadership race officially begins. We also chat about whether we’re seeing any corroboration of last week’s polling numbers that showed some Liberal slippage, plus the potential for a couple of federal byelections in the next few months. Then, we break down the results of the Spruce Woods byelection in Manitoba, where the incumbent PCs were nearly upset in a safe riding. Plus, new poll numbers in Ontario disagree on where Doug Ford stands — is he in a dominant position, or just a really good one? Finally, Philippe ups the ante with another Quiz.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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Is Mark Carney’s honeymoon in danger of coming to an end? A new poll from Abacus Data suggests the Liberals might have lost some steam for the first time since the April election. What to make of these new numbers that put the Conservatives marginally ahead?

This week on The Numbers, we take a look at this new poll — and a few others that muddy the waters, including some not-so-strong numbers for Pierre Poilievre nationwide. We also discuss the upcoming (second) resignation of Green leader Elizabeth May and a new poll that puts the Parti Québécois in the driver’s seat ahead of the 2026 Quebec election. We close with a prime ministerial Quiz from Philippe.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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Pierre Poilievre easily won the Battle River–Crowfoot byelection on Monday, thereby securing his return to the House of Commons. His closest challenger, Independent candidate Bonnie Critchley, finished 70 points behind as voters in the riding came out in droves to support the Conservative leader.

This week on The Numbers, we dive deep into the results of the Battle River–Crowfoot byelection. We also discuss some recent poll numbers that continue to look good for Mark Carney and the Liberals but suggest some vulnerabilities on key issues (such as the now-ended Air Canada strike and Donald Trump’s tariffs). Plus, we take a look at what happened in two PEI byelections last week and then Philippe closes with a byelection-themed Quiz.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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With less than a week to go before the Battle River–Crowfoot byelection, how do we assess Pierre Poilievre’s chances to not only win but to put up a score that is just as big as what his Conservative predecessors did in the riding? Plus, what to make of the news that Jenni Byrne, who ran the Conservative campaign in this year’s election, will not be running the party’s next campaign?

This week on The Numbers, we take our last look at the Battle for Battle River–Crowfoot. We also discuss the results of the Quebec provincial byelection in Arthabaska, where the Parti Québécois secured a surprisingly comfortable victory over Éric Duhaime and the Quebec Conservatives. What does it mean for politics in the province ahead of next year’s election?

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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For the second time in as many elections, Pierre Poilievre will have to contend with an enormous number of opponents. After the Longest Ballot Committee organized to expand the list of names to 91 candidates in Carleton, they’ve now boosted their efforts to push the roster of candidates to over 200 ahead of the Battle River–Crowfoot byelection.

Will it be the final straw before changes are made to the election laws? And what impact could it have on the race?

This week on The Numbers, we delve into the absurd byelection in Alberta. We also discuss some of the latest federal polling, as well as a trio of provincial byelections added to the calendar in Prince Edward Island and Manitoba and a face-off between Bonnie Crombie and Nate Erskine-Smith that is brewing within the Ontario Liberal Party. Then, Philippe takes us back to a time when “the land was strong” in this week’s edition of The Quiz.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

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The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.