Today on The Open Bell:

The US-Iran ceasefire expired yesterday with nothing to show for it, and Iran is now threatening to choke off the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries roughly one barrel in every five of the world's oil supply.

US government borrowing costs for 30 years just hit 5.31%, a level we haven't seen since 2007, and if you think that's just a bond market problem, your mortgage rate would like a word.

Asian chip stocks got wrecked overnight, with South Korea's main index down 5.5% in a single session, and the uncomfortable truth is that the same borrowing costs making your home loan worse are now unwinding the trade that's powered global markets for two years.

If today's episode helped the picture click into place, a five-star rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify genuinely helps other people find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:08 Iran Shifts to Offensive Posture as US-Iran Ceasefire Expire

03:03 US 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits 19-Year High at 5.31%

05:26 Asia Semiconductor Stocks Tumble: South Korea's KOSPI Falls

07:05 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

Iran's latest threats to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel that carries roughly one in five barrels of oil shipped globally, are keeping crude above $84 a barrel, and that number doesn't stay in the Gulf forever — it follows you to the petrol station.

BHP just reported a 30% jump in profit to $13.2 billion, and the bigger story buried inside those numbers is that copper, the metal wiring every electric vehicle and data cable on the planet, has overtaken iron ore as their biggest earner for the first time in the company's history.

Meanwhile, Wall Street slid Monday after a surprise drop in July retail sales, and the part that should give you pause is that the market's own fear gauge is sitting at its calmest level of the year, right in the middle of rising oil prices, a cooling consumer, and an unresolved conflict in the Middle East.

If this one was useful, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and helps the next listener find it.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:13 Oil Holds Above $84 as Iran Diplomacy Stalls, Hormuz Stays S

02:48 BHP FY26 Profit Surges 30% as Copper Overtakes Iron Ore

05:05 Wall Street Slides as Retail Sales Miss Weighs on Consumer O

07:06 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

The US and Canada have 48 hours to cut a deal before a 50% tariff lands on roughly 20 billion dollars' worth of Canadian exports, and if they don't, the price of things like cheese, wine, and new cars goes up for real people on both sides of the border.

Meanwhile, the US government just sold 30-year bonds, borrowing money guaranteed until 2056, at the highest interest rate since 2001, which tells you something uncomfortable about what the bond market thinks of America's fiscal trajectory right now.

And Japan's economy grew at barely half the speed economists expected in the second quarter, which puts the Bank of Japan in a genuinely awkward spot as it tries to convince markets it's ready to keep raising rates.

If today's episode helped things click, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and it helps the next listener find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:15 US-Canada Trade Talks Reach Critical Juncture With 50% Tarif

03:08 US 30-Year Treasury Yield Holds Near 5.26%, Highest Since 20

06:01 Japan Q2 GDP Grows Just 1.1% Annualised, Missing 2% Forecast

08:07 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

Inflation came in cooler in July and the White House is taking a bow, but real wages are still negative, meaning prices are still rising faster than most people's pay, and that's been true every single month this year.

Japan's wholesale prices have risen for five months straight and a rate hike in September is now almost a certainty, which sounds like someone else's problem until you realise the yen's weakness is quietly reshaping what everything from electronics to car parts costs you.

Britain's economy grew in the second quarter, which is technically good news, but the IMF and OECD both cut the UK's outlook by more than any other wealthy country this week, and they named the reason: the UK is more exposed to the Middle East energy shock than almost anywhere else in the developed world.

If today's episode helped you cut through the noise, a quick five-star rating genuinely helps other people find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:12 US CPI Cools to 3.4% in July, But Real Wages Still Negative

03:09 Japan Producer Prices Hold at 7.2%, BOJ September Hike Hits

05:40 UK Q2 GDP Grows 0.4% but Slows From Q1; June Surprise Lifts

07:27 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

The Strait of Hormuz has been nearly shut for six months now and the IEA says the world is heading into the third quarter short by 1.8 million barrels a day, which is the kind of number that doesn't stay in the energy market for long before it shows up in your petrol bill.

India just recorded its lowest inflation in seven years and almost nobody in the West is talking about it, which feels like a mistake when you're discussing the most populous country on earth and whether the global rate cycle is actually turning.

US inflation came in exactly where forecasters expected, which sounds fine until you notice that wages are still running below prices for the fourth month straight, so "matching forecasts" isn't quite the same thing as things getting better for most people.

If today's episode earned a few minutes of your commute, a quick rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify helps someone else find the show tomorrow.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:16 IEA Warns of 1.8Mb/d Oil Shortfall as Hormuz Deadlock Deepen

03:00 India July CPI Falls to 3.54%, Lowest Since Mid-2019, Openin

05:08 US July CPI Hits 3.4%, Matching Forecasts and Cooling Rate-H

06:51 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

The July inflation number just came in hotter than expected, and the reason is pretty direct: the collapse of US-Iran peace talks sent oil prices climbing, and that cost has now worked its way into your grocery receipt and your petrol bill in one clean, ugly line.

The 50% tariff on Canadian imports takes effect in seven days, and the uncomfortable part isn't just the price of cheese and butter going up before Labour Day, it's that the Fed has to sit on its hands and watch inflation climb from two directions at once while deciding whether to raise interest rates.

If today's episode helped you make sense of what's actually going on with prices right now, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and helps the next person find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:15 US July CPI Surges Back as Oil Pass-Through Hits Consumers

03:06 US Canada Tariff Clock Ticks: 50% Levy Takes Effect August 1

05:32 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

Iran's foreign minister just ruled out direct talks with Washington and renewed demands over the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that 20% of the world's oil supply passes through, and crude is already up 5% this week, which means this isn't a geopolitical footnote, it's heading straight for your petrol bill.

Berkshire Hathaway posted a 16% jump in quarterly profits and then did something its famously cautious new CEO Greg Abel hadn't done before at this scale: spent big on buying back its own shares, and when a company sitting on one of the largest cash piles in American corporate history decides now is the time to spend it, that's a signal worth paying attention to.

If today's episode was worth your commute, a five-star rating helps someone else find the show tomorrow.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:16 Iran Rejects Hormuz Deal Terms, WTI Crude Surges 5% to $82

03:15 Berkshire Hathaway Surges 2.3% as Q2 Earnings Rise 16%, Buyb

05:49 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

The US economy shed jobs in July for the first time since February, and the bizarre part is that markets loved it, because bad news for workers still reads as good news for rate cuts and stocks closed at record highs on Friday.

Iran ruled out any talks on the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend and there are reports of a tanker strike, which means roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil supply is now sitting behind a door that just got slammed shut.

China's latest inflation numbers show a country running two economies at once: factories exporting at full throttle while ordinary Chinese consumers have basically stopped spending, and that gap is getting harder to explain away.

If today's episode helped you make sense of the week ahead, a quick rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify helps other listeners find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:12 US July Payrolls Shrink by 23,000, First Drop Since February

03:16 Iran Rules Out Hormuz Talks; Tanker Strike Report Roils Oil

05:34 China July CPI Cools to 0.5%, Six-Month Low; PPI Also Slows

07:18 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

The US economy slowed sharply in Q2 and inflation is finally cooling, but both things are happening for the same reason, which is that oil prices fell, which is itself a consequence of the Middle East conflict, so the "good news" on prices and the "bad news" on growth aren't really two separate stories.

A drone hit an American gas tanker in Egypt yesterday, the first attack of this war on a vessel at Damietta, and the port sits right next to the Suez Canal, the last functioning safe route for Gulf oil heading to Europe, so this one matters well beyond the ship itself.

The Bank of England held UK interest rates at 3.75% today but three of the nine policymakers on the committee voted to raise them, which is a closer call than almost anyone expected and a real signal that another hike is on the table when they meet again in September.

If today's episode helped you get your head around a genuinely complicated news day, a five-star rating helps the next listener find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:25 US Q2 GDP Slows to 1.5% as PCE Inflation Cools to 3.3%

03:08 Drone Strikes US LNG Vessel at Egypt's Damietta, Rattling Su

05:29 Bank of England Holds at 3.75% in Tight 6-3 Vote, Flags Hike

07:14 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

The Fed held rates steady again, but three of its own members wanted a hike, the bond market threw a fit, and long-term borrowing costs are now at levels most people haven't seen since the mid-2000s — so "on hold" is doing a lot of work as a phrase right now.

Iran fired ballistic missiles at US troops in Jordan, every one of them was intercepted, and oil still surged nearly 8% in a single session, because markets aren't pricing what happened, they're pricing what comes next.

South Korea's stock market hit its emergency stop for the second day in a row, something that has never happened in its history, and the reason buried under all the numbers is a growing fear that the AI spending boom won't actually pay off the way everyone assumed.

If today's episode helped you get your head around a genuinely strange news day, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and helps other listeners find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

---

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:15 Divided Fed holds rates at 3.5–3.75%, sparking bond market r

03:00 Brent crude surges 7.90% to $90.74 as Iran targets US forces

04:58 South Korea's KOSPI triggers circuit breaker for second stra

06:53 Closing thoughts

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