Today on The Open Bell:

Oil crossed $100 a barrel overnight because Houthi rebels in Yemen set fire to a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea, and if you're wondering what that has to do with your petrol bill, the answer is: quite a lot, quite soon.

Alphabet beat its revenue forecast and still got punished by markets, because it told investors it plans to spend $205 billion on AI this year and Wall Street's patience for "trust us, the payoff is coming" is running thin.

America is now twelve nights into airstrikes on Iran, the president is hinting publicly at something much larger, and with oil already above $100, the global economy is operating with almost no margin for this to get worse, and it might.

If today's episode was useful, a quick five-star rating helps other people find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:11 Brent Crude Tops $100 After Houthis Strike Two Saudi Tankers

03:21 Nasdaq Tumbles 2.15% as Alphabet and Tesla AI Spend Alarms W

06:01 Trump Threatens Massive Iran Strike; US Completes 12th Night

07:56 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

Iran nuclear talks have collapsed, the U.S. is on its eleventh straight night of strikes on Iranian military facilities, and for the first time since this conflict started, two of the world's biggest oil shipping routes are under threat simultaneously, with Brent crude already above $95 and Goldman Sachs calling $120 the base case if neither lane reopens.

Alphabet just beat Wall Street's revenue expectations by nearly three billion dollars, announced it's spending $205 billion this year building AI infrastructure, and the stock still fell, which tells you something about how high the bar has become for the companies running this race.

The European Central Bank held interest rates steady today at 2.25%, which sounds like nothing happened, but with oil prices surging and inflation forecasts already revised upward, the September meeting is quietly setting up to be one of the most consequential calls the ECB has faced in years.

If today's episode helped you get your head around what's actually going on, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and helps the next person find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:17 Brent Crude Surges Past $95 as Iran Talks Collapse, Two Sea

03:02 Alphabet Q2 Revenue Hits $119.8bn, But $205bn Capex Plan Rat

05:13 ECB Holds Rates at 2.25%, Signals Caution as Oil Inflation R

06:54 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

Trump just hit Canada with 50% tariffs using a law that hasn't been touched since Herbert Hoover was in the White House and the Great Depression was still getting started, and if that doesn't tell you how far outside normal territory we've moved, nothing will.

Britain's bond market, which had been pricing in a rough ride under the new Burnham government, calmed down fast when the surprise chancellor pick turned out to be someone traders read as a fiscal grown-up rather than a political reward.

South Korea's stock market just had one of its best sessions in months, and the reason is almost entirely Nvidia's order book, which probably tells you more about how the AI trade is reshaping the world than any summit communiqué ever could.

If today's episode helped you make sense of things, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and it genuinely helps more people find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:13 Trump hits Canada with 50% tariffs on autos, dairy, wine

03:10 UK gilts stabilise as surprise chancellor pick calms markets

05:48 South Korea's KOSPI surges 5.56% as AI chip rally extends

07:37 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

Nine consecutive nights of US strikes on Iranian targets have pushed oil back above $90 a barrel, and if you think that's a story about geopolitics and not about your petrol bill or your mortgage, today's episode will change your mind.

US 30-year mortgage rates just hit their highest point in nearly a year, and the reason ties directly back to that same conflict, because oil, inflation expectations, and borrowing costs are more connected than most people realise until it's already showing up in their monthly payment.

Then, a single sentence from an Iranian foreign ministry spokesman in the middle of the night sent chipmaker stocks rallying across Asia by 1.7%, which tells you everything about how tightly wound markets are to every signal out of Tehran right now.

If today's episode helped connect some dots, a five-star rating takes about three seconds and helps the next listener find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:17 Brent Crude Tops $90 as US Launches 9th Night of Iran Strike

03:06 US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Hits 6.55%, Highest in Nearly a Yea

05:00 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

The US and Iran escalated over the weekend in ways that will show up at your petrol pump this week, with Brent crude clearing $90 a barrel after strikes hit vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and took out a Kuwaiti oil processing facility, and the uncomfortable truth is that every tick higher in oil makes it harder for central banks to cut rates the way everyone was hoping.

The AI chip trade has now given back nearly a fifth of its peak value in under a month, and Netflix missing its revenue target by roughly $40 million was apparently all it took to remind markets that "the future of tech" is still a business that has to hit its numbers.

With the European Central Bank due to announce its next rate decision on Thursday, this is a good moment to sit with a genuinely awkward problem: a war in the Middle East is pushing prices up and squeezing growth at the same time, and there is no clean rate move that solves both.

If today's episode was worth your commute, a five-star rating takes ten seconds and helps the next listener find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:16 Brent Tops $90 After US-Iran Strikes Hit Kuwait Oil Facility

03:11 US Semiconductor Index Down 20% From Peak as Netflix Crash D

05:45 ECB Rate Decision Due July 24 After June Hike Cycle Restarts

07:47 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

America's biggest banks just had their best quarter on record, and the fact that JPMorgan making $21 billion in three months barely led the news cycle tells you everything about how much else happened this week.

Inflation fell harder than almost anyone expected in June, which would normally be cause for a proper celebration, but oil is creeping back above $80 and the Strait of Hormuz is suddenly a geopolitical flashpoint, so the Fed's job just got complicated again before it even had a chance to feel good about the progress.

Chip stocks have lost a fifth of their value in under a month, and the whole story of whether AI spending is real and durable or a build-up looking for a correction is basically going to be answered in the next two weeks of earnings.

TSMC, the Taiwanese company that physically manufactures the chips inside almost every AI system on the planet, just posted its fifth straight quarterly record and pledged another hundred billion dollars into Arizona, which tells a very different story from the one the selloff is telling.

And the Trump administration's new "protection tax" on oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical shipping lanes on Earth, is doing exactly what you'd expect to fuel prices just as inflation was starting to ease.

If this week made more sense by the end of this episode, a five-star rating helps the next person find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:27 Big Five Banks Sweep Q2 Estimates; JPMorgan Posts Record Pro

02:06 June CPI Falls to 3.5%, Coolest Reading Since April 2023

03:32 Chip Stocks Tumble; SOX Index on Track for 20% Pullback

05:05 TSMC Posts Record Q2 Profit, Adds $100B Arizona Investment

06:29 Hormuz Tensions Lift Oil Above $80 as U.S.–Iran Conflict Wid

07:42 Closing thoughts

Today on The Open Bell:

TSMC, the Taiwanese company that makes the chips inside almost everything AI runs on, just reported its best earnings in years and its stock still fell more than 4%, which tells you the AI trade isn't about fundamentals anymore, it's about whether the next number can keep topping the last one.

SpaceX dropped below its $135 IPO price this week, just one month after raising $75 billion in the biggest public offering in history, and Elon Musk went from the world's first trillionaire to technically not one faster than most people get through a job probation period.

US mortgage rates have climbed to 6.55%, a near one-year high, and the uncomfortable part is the Fed hasn't actually moved, the bond market has just decided it will, and that distinction matters a lot if you're trying to buy a house right now.

If today's episode helped you make sense of the week, a quick five-star rating genuinely helps other people find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:13 TSMC Q2 Earnings Beat Sends Chip Stocks Tumbling Anyway

03:07 SpaceX Drops Below $135 IPO Price, Wiping Trillionaire Statu

05:35 US Mortgage Rates Hit Near-One-Year High at 6.55% on Inflati

07:23 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

The US struck Iranian targets overnight for the second time in as many days, oil is back above $80 a barrel, and the risk that the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel that handles about a fifth of the world's seaborne oil, gets seriously disrupted is no longer a tail risk anyone's dismissing.

Apple got regulatory approval from Beijing to switch on its AI features for Chinese iPhone users, roughly 17% of the company's global revenue just got a whole lot more interesting, and the stock hit an all-time record close the same day.

If today's episode was worth your commute, a five-star rating helps the next listener find it.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

---

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:12 US strikes Iran again; oil tops $80 as Hormuz risk premium c

03:26 Apple surges 4% to record close on China AI approval; Alibab

06:12 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

US inflation posted its biggest monthly drop in six years, which sounds great until you find out the main reason it fell is already going into reverse.

IBM just lost a quarter of its stock market value in a single day, and the warning underneath that number is that big companies are gutting their software budgets to fund AI hardware, which is bad news for a lot more than just IBM.

China's economy grew at 4.3% last quarter, well short of its own targets, and the uncomfortable reality is that the world's largest middle class has stopped spending, while Beijing is still figuring out whether it wants to admit that's actually the problem.

If today's episode helped you cut through the noise, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and genuinely helps more people find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

---

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:16 US June CPI Tumbles to 3.5%, Biggest Monthly Drop Since Apri

03:03 IBM Plunges 25% on AI Budget Shift Warning, Dragging Enterpr

05:13 China Q2 GDP Growth Slows to 4.3%, Missing Target on Weak De

06:51 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

Trump has reimposed a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel that carries a fifth of the world's seaborne oil, and slapped a 20% toll on everything that moves through it, and Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, jumped nearly 10% overnight to $83 a barrel, which means this isn't a market story, it's a petrol pump story.

New Fed chair Kevin Warsh is testifying before Congress this morning for the very first time, and given that he's walking in the door on the same day as the inflation report and five major bank earnings releases, we're about to find out very quickly what he's actually made of.

JPMorgan, Goldman, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup all dropped their second-quarter results before the opening bell this morning, investment banking revenues are up around 26% across the board, and the timing tells you everything: Wall Street is printing money at the exact moment the Fed is deciding whether borrowing stays expensive for everyone else.

If today's episode is earning its place in your morning, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and genuinely helps other people find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

---

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:20 Trump Reinstates Iran Blockade; Brent Crude Surges 9.6% to $

03:17 Fed Chair Warsh Delivers Maiden Congressional Testimony on M

05:45 Five US Mega-Banks Report Q2 Earnings; Investment Banking Re

07:35 Closing thoughts

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