Today on The Open Bell:

The 30-year Treasury yield, which is what the US government pays to borrow money for three decades and the invisible hand behind your mortgage rate, just hit 5.62 percent, a level this country hasn't seen since 2002, and the people setting prices on those bonds are saying something loud and clear about where they think inflation is actually headed.

The Trump administration just cracked open 40 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the country's emergency oil stockpile, to try to hold pump prices down while the US-Iran standoff keeps rattling Middle East supply routes, but two days' worth of American consumption only buys so much time, and the reserve isn't bottomless.

Consumer confidence just collapsed to its lowest reading since 2014, with the forward-looking piece of the index falling to a level economists associate with outright recession expectations, and the fact that markets shrugged tells you something uncomfortable about whose anxiety actually moves prices.

If this helped you make sense of a genuinely strange day in the economy, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and helps the next listener find the show.

New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:12 US 30-yr Treasury yield hits 24-yr high as inflation fears g

03:00 Trump taps SPR for 40 mn barrels; Brent crude tumbles toward

05:10 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

Trump rejected Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel that carries a fifth of the world's oil, and Brent crude responded by surging past $107 a barrel, which means the world just chose the more expensive option.

Australia's central bank raised borrowing costs to their highest point since 2011, and the reason printed right there in the official statement is a war in the Middle East that has nothing to do with Australia's own economy.

Japan is warning currency traders to stop selling the yen, loudly and with apparent U.S. backing, but U.S. interest rates are still four times higher than Japan's, so traders are being paid handsomely to keep doing exactly what Tokyo is asking them to stop.

If today's episode helped you follow a fast-moving story, a five-star rating takes ten seconds and helps the next listener find the show.

New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:09 Trump rejects Iran's Hormuz plan; Brent surges past $107

03:11 RBA raises cash rate to 4.60%, highest since 2011, citing oi

05:14 Japan warns markets on yen at 157; joint U.S.-Japan action f

07:03 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

Trump turned down Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil, and the market's response was instant: if those tankers stay disrupted, inflation isn't going anywhere.

That rejection sent bond yields, the interest rate the government pays to borrow your money, climbing to 5.20% on the 10-year US Treasury, the highest since before the 2008 financial crisis, which means mortgages, car loans, and business borrowing all just got a little more expensive before breakfast.

Meanwhile, in a story that tells you exactly where investors are parking money right now, South Africa's Gold Fields quietly tried to buy Australia's biggest gold miner for AU$38.7 billion and got turned down flat, but Northern Star's shareholders still walked away 9% richer just because the offer became public.

If today's episode helped you cut through the noise, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and helps the next listener find the show.

New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:20 Trump Rejects Iran Hormuz Deal, Sending Oil and Yields Surgi

03:08 Global Bond Selloff Deepens: US 10-Year Yield Hits 5.20%

05:53 Gold Fields' AU$38.7bn Bid for Northern Star Rejected, Share

08:09 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

Oil hit $108 a barrel this week before pulling back, and the real story isn't the number itself but what's underneath it: diesel is now $6.51 a gallon in the US, up 73% since the Iran war began, and every truck and ship moving goods across the country is handing that bill straight to you at the register.

The 30-year US Treasury yield just reached 5.50%, a level nobody's seen since 2004, and the bond market is now doing the Fed's job for it, meaning mortgage rates are sitting at 7.37% and the monthly cost of buying a home is quietly crushing people who have nothing to do with Treasury auctions.

Trump and Xi met at the White House, the most powerful tech executives on the planet sat at dinner with the Chinese president, and the official outcome of all of it was a 47-day extension of a trade truce that was already expiring.

If today's episode helped you make sense of a genuinely strange week, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and helps the next listener find the show.

New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:11 Oil Spikes to $108/Barrel as Iran War Tensions Override Dema

03:09 US 30-Year Bond Yield Hits 22-Year High at 5.50% on PMI Surg

05:23 Trump-Xi Summit Extends US-China Trade Truce to January 10,

06:55 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

The US and China extended their trade truce by two months instead of the six months markets were expecting, and that gap between what everyone assumed and what actually happened is the whole story.

America's economy just posted its strongest activity reading in five years, which sounds like great news until you realize that "strong growth" is exactly what's keeping interest rates, and mortgage payments, painfully high.

Australia's jobs data dropped in the middle of the night, and depending on what it showed, millions of Australian homeowners could be staring down a third rate rise before Christmas.

If today's episode helped things click, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and helps someone else find the show.

New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:17 US-China Trade Truce Extended to Jan 10 as Xi Arrives in DC

02:42 US Flash PMIs Hit 5-Year High; Services Prices Surge to 2022

05:08 Australia August Jobs Data Released: Employment and RBA Hike

06:59 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

Oil is sitting just under $100 a barrel and the reason your petrol bill, your mortgage rate, and your grocery prices are all still climbing at the same time traces back to one thing: the same supply crunch that pushed crude past $113 in April still hasn't let go.

Nigeria's central bank just slashed its benchmark rate by 350 basis points, that's three and a half full percentage points in one move, and the question isn't whether that's bold, it's whether an economy that's been squeezed this hard for this long can actually absorb a jolt that size without something else giving way.

Bitcoin jumped nearly 7% in a single day, not because of any news, but because $648 million worth of traders who'd bet on prices falling were forced to buy back in all at once when prices rose instead, which tells you a lot about who's really driving this market.

If today's episode helped something click, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and helps more people find the show.

New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:14 Oil Holds Near $99/bbl as Iran-Linked Supply Fears Keep Ener

03:03 Nigeria's Central Bank Slashes Rate 350bp to 23% in Surprise

05:46 Bitcoin Surges 6.70% to $86,600 as $648M Short Squeeze Clear

07:52 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

Oil briefly cracked below $100 a barrel on Monday, and the reason is almost too absurd to say out loud: Trump told a TV interviewer he'd "probably" be open to a meeting with Iran's president, no deal, no timeline, not even a confirmed handshake, and the market moved anyway.

AMD crossed $1 trillion in market value in a single session because Meta launched an AI agent that can book your flights and reply to your emails, which tells you everything about where chip investors think the money is going next.

The U.S. and China just agreed to pick up the phone if their AI systems start doing something alarming, and while that sounds like the bare minimum of responsible governance, Asian markets treated it like a breakthrough, because in 2026, agreeing to talk is apparently the news.

If this helped you make sense of today, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and helps the next listener find us.

New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:15 Trump's Iran Meeting Signal Pushes Brent Below $100 for Firs

03:07 Nasdaq Hits Record as Meta's Muse AI Agent Sparks Chip Rally

05:40 Bessent-He Talks Produce U.S.-China AI Safety Dialogue Ahead

07:21 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

Houthi forces struck Riyadh over the weekend, oil gapped higher on Sunday night, and even after pulling back this morning, we're close enough to $100 a barrel that your petrol price, your next flight, and your heating bill are all already feeling it.

The US Treasury Secretary and China's top economic official sat down in New York yesterday, the highest-level contact between the two countries in months, and what they work out on tariffs before the Trump-Xi summit later this week will end up in the price of your phone, your car, and half the things on the shelves at your local shop.

The average 30-year US mortgage rate just hit 7.24%, a 19-month high, which sounds like a number until you do the math: that's roughly $640 more per month on a $400,000 loan than it cost borrowers when rates were sitting at 3%, and the Fed may not be done yet.

If this helped you make sense of a messy Monday morning, a five-star rating takes ten seconds and helps someone else find the show.

New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:09 Houthis Strike Riyadh; Oil Opens Higher Then Eases on Flow D

03:08 US-China Talks: Bessent Meets He Lifeng in New York Ahead of

05:26 US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Hits 7.24%, a 19-Month High, After

07:22 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

The Fed raised interest rates for the first time in over three years this week, and Chair Kevin Warsh is already signaling another hike before the end of the year, which means the cost of borrowing, on your mortgage, your car loan, your credit card, just got more expensive again.

Japan's central bank raised its benchmark rate to 1.25%, the highest since 1995, and with the Fed tightening in the same week, this is the most synchronized global squeeze on borrowing costs we've seen since 2022, and that synchronization has consequences that ripple well past Tokyo and Washington.

Saudi Arabia found a workaround for its damaged East-West pipeline by routing extra crude shipments through tankers instead, and that was enough to pull Brent crude, the international oil price benchmark, down nearly three dollars a barrel in a single session, which is a reminder that oil markets are as much about logistics problem-solving as they are about conflict.

If today's episode helped something click, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and helps other listeners find the show.

New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

---

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:11 Fed hikes rates to 3.75%-4.00%, first increase since July 20

02:53 Bank of Japan raises rates to 1.25%, highest since 1995, yen

04:54 Saudi Arabia pipeline reroute pulls Brent crude down 2.70% t

06:59 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

The Fed raised interest rates for the first time in three years, and the unanimous 12-0 vote is the part they're not really talking about: there is no dissent, no daylight, and the Fed's own officials are already signalling another hike is probably coming.

China's central bank just quietly scrapped the targets that told its banks how much to lend each year, and if you want to understand where copper prices, shipping costs, and global manufacturing go next, that's where you need to be looking.

If today's episode helped you get a handle on either of these, a five-star rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify genuinely helps the next listener find us.

New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:21 Fed hikes rates to 3.75%-4.00% — first increase since 2023

03:29 PBOC Governor Pan signals shift away from bank loan-growth t

06:32 Closing thoughts

Support the show