Today on The Open Bell:

Iran hit Kuwait with missiles and drones overnight, oil surged, and then gave back roughly half the gain in the same session once it became clear the White House is quietly moving toward talks, which tells you everything about who's actually steering this market right now.

A Fed governor who could well be the deciding vote at this month's rate meeting just signalled he wants to hold steady, but the jobs report dropping today could flip that calculus before the weekend's even started.

Japan's 30-year government bonds just hit yields the country hasn't seen since 1999, which sounds like a footnote until you realise this is a country that spent a quarter century desperately trying to get inflation going, and now it can't stop it.

If today's episode was worth your commute, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and helps the next listener find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:15 Iran strikes Kuwait; oil surges as Hormuz tension flares ane

02:58 Fed's Waller signals rate hold, paring hike bets before payr

05:33 Japan 30-year bond yield sets 1999 record at 4.08% in auctio

07:11 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

US forces have struck Iranian targets around the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is hitting back, and Brent crude is up more than 5% in a single session to nearly $95 a barrel, because roughly one in every five barrels of oil on earth flows through that waterway and someone just turned it into a conflict zone.

That oil shock is already showing up in European inflation, which jumped to 3.3% in August, well above the European Central Bank's 2% target, and almost entirely on the back of energy costs, so the ECB is now almost certain to raise interest rates again this month, which means European mortgages, business loans, and credit card rates are all going up.

And in the US, the 10-year Treasury yield, the benchmark that quietly sets the floor for mortgage rates, car loans, and corporate borrowing across the entire economy, hit 4.82% yesterday, its highest since late 2023, because oil-driven inflation plus a wave of AI company debt issuance plus rising odds of another Fed rate hike is a combination the bond market is not feeling great about.

If this helped you connect the dots today, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and helps the next listener find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:13 US-Iran strikes escalate; Brent surges to $94.86 near 6-week

02:51 Eurozone CPI surges to 3.3% in August; ECB September hike ne

05:30 US 10-yr yield hits 4.82%, highest since Nov 2023, as Fed hi

07:31 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

The US struck Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions across the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, oil jumped 5.2% in a single session, and if you're wondering what that means for the price of filling up your car, the answer is: nothing good.

Japan's 10-year government bond yield just crossed 3% for the first time since 1996, which sounds like a footnote from a different era, and the fact that America's Treasury Secretary was at the G20 actively pushing for it to go higher tells you this is very much someone else's policy problem landing on Japanese households.

Eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.3% in August, driven almost entirely by energy costs now rising at 14.3% annually, and the European Central Bank's likely response is to raise borrowing rates on top of that, so Europeans get to pay more for energy and more for their mortgages at the same time.

If today's episode was worth your commute, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and it genuinely helps the next person find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

---

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:10 US Strikes IRGC Sites as Crude Tops $90, WTI Surges 5.2% in

02:45 Japan's 10-Year Bond Yield Hits 3% for First Time Since 1996

05:16 Eurozone Inflation Jumps to 3.3% in August, ECB Rate Hike No

07:23 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

US forces have now struck Iranian positions in the Strait of Hormuz twice since July, Iran has fired back at American bases in Jordan, and oil is above $86 a barrel, which means this isn't a distant geopolitical story anymore, it's a pump-price story.

The yen is closing in on 160 to the dollar, a level that last time cost Japan tens of billions to defend, and America's own Treasury Secretary just stood up at a G20 meeting and told Japan it needs to act, which is either reassuring coordination or a very public warning, depending on which side of that trade you're on.

Australian inflation just came in at 4.8%, nearly two and a half times the Reserve Bank's target, and with oil prices jumping at the same time, the RBA is now trying to thread a needle that keeps getting smaller.

If today's episode helped you get your head around what's moving, a five-star rating takes about three seconds and it genuinely helps other people find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:11 US Strikes Iran Again, Sending Oil Above $86 and Stocks Lowe

03:32 Yen Nears 160 vs Dollar as Bessent Signals BOJ Will Act at G

06:03 Australia Inflation Accelerates to 4.80% in July, Complicati

07:54 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

The new Fed Chair used his first Jackson Hole speech to tell the world that another rate hike is back on the table, and the September odds just jumped to 60%, which is a long way from the cuts everyone was pricing in six months ago.

Gold had the best month this century in August, up roughly 14%, and then one afternoon speech from a Fed Chair erased nearly 3% of that in a matter of hours, which tells you everything about how fragile this rally actually is.

Germany's retail sales just fell 1.5% in July when everyone was expecting a mild 0.4% dip, and when the biggest economy in Europe can't get its shoppers to spend, the whole eurozone growth story gets a lot harder to tell.

If today's episode helped things click, a five-star rating genuinely helps the next listener find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:13 Warsh's Hawkish Jackson Hole Speech Lifts Sept Rate-Hike Odd

03:20 Gold Tumbles 2.88% to $4,529.90 as Dollar Surges on Hawkish

05:33 German Retail Sales Slide 1.5% MoM in July, Deepening Eurozo

07:16 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

The Fed is openly split heading into Jackson Hole, with at least one regional president pushing for rate hikes while the rest of the world waits for Friday morning's speech from the chair, and if you own a home, a pension, or basically anything, that speech could move it.

Australia's inflation just came in hotter than anyone expected, and for the roughly one-in-three Australian homeowners on a variable-rate mortgage, "hotter than expected" is just a polite way of saying their repayments may be going up again.

Nvidia had a great night and Marvell didn't, and the gap between them tells you something the AI hype cycle tends to skip: the boom has a very short list of names on it, and being in the right industry doesn't put you on it.

If today's episode helped you get your head around a messy news day, a five-star rating takes about four seconds and helps the next listener find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:14 Cleveland Fed's Hammack Calls for Rate Hikes at Jackson Hole

03:18 Australia CPI Surges to 3.5% as Monthly Inflation Beats Fore

05:16 Marvell Technology Tumbles 7%+ After Hours on Disappointing

07:02 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

The Fed's preferred inflation measure just came in hotter than expected, 3.7% year-over-year, and suddenly the question of whether the Fed raises interest rates again isn't as settled as markets thought it was last week.

South Korea's central bank just hiked rates for the second month in a row, and the story isn't really about Seoul: it's a signal that the inflation fight across Asia is grinding on, and that the era of cheap borrowing isn't coming back as fast as anyone hoped.

Nvidia's quarterly revenue cleared $91 billion, which is more than most countries produce in a year, and the company still told investors to expect more, which is why futures on the Nasdaq, the index heavy with tech stocks, surged roughly 1% the moment the numbers landed.

If today's episode helped you make sense of what's moving and why, a five-star rating takes ten seconds and helps the next listener find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

---

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:14 US PCE Inflation Tops Forecast at 3.7%, Keeping Fed Hike Ris

03:13 Bank of Korea Raises Rates to 3.00% in Second Consecutive Hi

05:44 Nvidia Q2 Revenue Beats $91B Bar; Nasdaq Futures Surge ~1% A

07:35 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

Nvidia just reported $93 billion in a single quarter, roughly 95% more than a year ago, and then told investors to expect even more, which raises a genuine question: at what point does "AI demand" stop being a growth story and start being a test of whether anything in the economy can actually absorb this much money moving in one direction.

Oil slipped below $85 a barrel after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signalled real progress on easing sanctions against Iran, and if that deal closes and 700,000 extra barrels a day hit the market, you'll feel it at the petrol pump before the month is out.

Australia's inflation rate just dropped to 3.5%, the lowest in eighteen months, and mortgage holders across the country are now watching the Reserve Bank of Australia very closely ahead of its September meeting, because that number is close enough to the target that a rate cut is no longer just a hope.

If today's episode was worth your commute, a five-star rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify helps the next listener find us.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

---

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:13 Nvidia Q2 Revenue Surges ~95% YoY; AI Chip Demand Sets New R

03:01 Oil Slides Below $85 as US-Iran Sanctions Deal Signals Progr

05:34 Australia July CPI Slows to 3.5%, Lifting RBA Rate-Cut Hopes

07:37 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

The US just threatened to cut off from the global dollar system any bank, anywhere on earth, that keeps doing business with Iran, and gave them a countdown clock to comply before the consequences hit.

South Korea's stock market just had its worst day in weeks because Washington is reportedly leaning on the companies that make the memory chips inside every major AI system to build their next factories in America instead.

The US government is quietly buying its own debt to keep its borrowing costs from spiraling, and the people whose job it is to watch for exactly this kind of thing are not reassured.

If today's episode made something click, a five-star rating helps the next listener find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

---

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:08 US Launches 'Operation Economic Outcast' Against Iran

02:35 South Korea's KOSPI Tumbles 2.66% on US Chip-Investment Pres

04:39 Closing thoughts

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Today on The Open Bell:

The US government is now paying more to borrow money for 30 years than it has since before the first iPhone shipped, and the Treasury's attempt to calm the bond market lasted about 48 hours before the yield crawled right back up to 5.27%.

Nvidia reports earnings this week, and at this point the entire US stock market has essentially stopped pretending it's about anything else, with semiconductors down more than 4% last week and the Nasdaq sliding 2% while everyone waits for a single company to tell them how to feel.

Brent crude is holding above $93 a barrel because the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply, still isn't freely open to most ships six months into the disruption, and $93 has quietly gone from a crisis price to just the price.

If today's episode was useful, a five-star rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify helps the next listener find it.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

---

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:20 US 30-Year Treasury Yield Holds Near 19-Year High at 5.27%

03:33 US Equities Start Week Under Pressure as Semiconductor Rout

05:48 Brent Crude Above $93 as Hormuz Shipping Disruption Persists

07:13 Closing thoughts

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