Today on The Open Bell:

Inflation came in cooler in July and the White House is taking a bow, but real wages are still negative, meaning prices are still rising faster than most people's pay, and that's been true every single month this year.

Japan's wholesale prices have risen for five months straight and a rate hike in September is now almost a certainty, which sounds like someone else's problem until you realise the yen's weakness is quietly reshaping what everything from electronics to car parts costs you.

Britain's economy grew in the second quarter, which is technically good news, but the IMF and OECD both cut the UK's outlook by more than any other wealthy country this week, and they named the reason: the UK is more exposed to the Middle East energy shock than almost anywhere else in the developed world.

If today's episode helped you cut through the noise, a quick five-star rating genuinely helps other people find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

---

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:12 US CPI Cools to 3.4% in July, But Real Wages Still Negative

03:09 Japan Producer Prices Hold at 7.2%, BOJ September Hike Hits

05:40 UK Q2 GDP Grows 0.4% but Slows From Q1; June Surprise Lifts

07:27 Closing thoughts

Support the show

Today on The Open Bell:

The Strait of Hormuz has been nearly shut for six months now and the IEA says the world is heading into the third quarter short by 1.8 million barrels a day, which is the kind of number that doesn't stay in the energy market for long before it shows up in your petrol bill.

India just recorded its lowest inflation in seven years and almost nobody in the West is talking about it, which feels like a mistake when you're discussing the most populous country on earth and whether the global rate cycle is actually turning.

US inflation came in exactly where forecasters expected, which sounds fine until you notice that wages are still running below prices for the fourth month straight, so "matching forecasts" isn't quite the same thing as things getting better for most people.

If today's episode earned a few minutes of your commute, a quick rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify helps someone else find the show tomorrow.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

---

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:16 IEA Warns of 1.8Mb/d Oil Shortfall as Hormuz Deadlock Deepen

03:00 India July CPI Falls to 3.54%, Lowest Since Mid-2019, Openin

05:08 US July CPI Hits 3.4%, Matching Forecasts and Cooling Rate-H

06:51 Closing thoughts

Support the show

Today on The Open Bell:

The July inflation number just came in hotter than expected, and the reason is pretty direct: the collapse of US-Iran peace talks sent oil prices climbing, and that cost has now worked its way into your grocery receipt and your petrol bill in one clean, ugly line.

The 50% tariff on Canadian imports takes effect in seven days, and the uncomfortable part isn't just the price of cheese and butter going up before Labour Day, it's that the Fed has to sit on its hands and watch inflation climb from two directions at once while deciding whether to raise interest rates.

If today's episode helped you make sense of what's actually going on with prices right now, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and helps the next person find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

---

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:15 US July CPI Surges Back as Oil Pass-Through Hits Consumers

03:06 US Canada Tariff Clock Ticks: 50% Levy Takes Effect August 1

05:32 Closing thoughts

Support the show

Today on The Open Bell:

Iran's foreign minister just ruled out direct talks with Washington and renewed demands over the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that 20% of the world's oil supply passes through, and crude is already up 5% this week, which means this isn't a geopolitical footnote, it's heading straight for your petrol bill.

Berkshire Hathaway posted a 16% jump in quarterly profits and then did something its famously cautious new CEO Greg Abel hadn't done before at this scale: spent big on buying back its own shares, and when a company sitting on one of the largest cash piles in American corporate history decides now is the time to spend it, that's a signal worth paying attention to.

If today's episode was worth your commute, a five-star rating helps someone else find the show tomorrow.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

---

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:16 Iran Rejects Hormuz Deal Terms, WTI Crude Surges 5% to $82

03:15 Berkshire Hathaway Surges 2.3% as Q2 Earnings Rise 16%, Buyb

05:49 Closing thoughts

Support the show

Today on The Open Bell:

The US economy shed jobs in July for the first time since February, and the bizarre part is that markets loved it, because bad news for workers still reads as good news for rate cuts and stocks closed at record highs on Friday.

Iran ruled out any talks on the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend and there are reports of a tanker strike, which means roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil supply is now sitting behind a door that just got slammed shut.

China's latest inflation numbers show a country running two economies at once: factories exporting at full throttle while ordinary Chinese consumers have basically stopped spending, and that gap is getting harder to explain away.

If today's episode helped you make sense of the week ahead, a quick rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify helps other listeners find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

---

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:12 US July Payrolls Shrink by 23,000, First Drop Since February

03:16 Iran Rules Out Hormuz Talks; Tanker Strike Report Roils Oil

05:34 China July CPI Cools to 0.5%, Six-Month Low; PPI Also Slows

07:18 Closing thoughts

Support the show

Today on The Open Bell:

The US economy slowed sharply in Q2 and inflation is finally cooling, but both things are happening for the same reason, which is that oil prices fell, which is itself a consequence of the Middle East conflict, so the "good news" on prices and the "bad news" on growth aren't really two separate stories.

A drone hit an American gas tanker in Egypt yesterday, the first attack of this war on a vessel at Damietta, and the port sits right next to the Suez Canal, the last functioning safe route for Gulf oil heading to Europe, so this one matters well beyond the ship itself.

The Bank of England held UK interest rates at 3.75% today but three of the nine policymakers on the committee voted to raise them, which is a closer call than almost anyone expected and a real signal that another hike is on the table when they meet again in September.

If today's episode helped you get your head around a genuinely complicated news day, a five-star rating helps the next listener find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

---

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:25 US Q2 GDP Slows to 1.5% as PCE Inflation Cools to 3.3%

03:08 Drone Strikes US LNG Vessel at Egypt's Damietta, Rattling Su

05:29 Bank of England Holds at 3.75% in Tight 6-3 Vote, Flags Hike

07:14 Closing thoughts

Support the show

Today on The Open Bell:

The Fed held rates steady again, but three of its own members wanted a hike, the bond market threw a fit, and long-term borrowing costs are now at levels most people haven't seen since the mid-2000s — so "on hold" is doing a lot of work as a phrase right now.

Iran fired ballistic missiles at US troops in Jordan, every one of them was intercepted, and oil still surged nearly 8% in a single session, because markets aren't pricing what happened, they're pricing what comes next.

South Korea's stock market hit its emergency stop for the second day in a row, something that has never happened in its history, and the reason buried under all the numbers is a growing fear that the AI spending boom won't actually pay off the way everyone assumed.

If today's episode helped you get your head around a genuinely strange news day, a five-star rating takes about ten seconds and helps other listeners find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

---

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:15 Divided Fed holds rates at 3.5–3.75%, sparking bond market r

03:00 Brent crude surges 7.90% to $90.74 as Iran targets US forces

04:58 South Korea's KOSPI triggers circuit breaker for second stra

06:53 Closing thoughts

Support the show

Today on The Open Bell:

Iran fired ballistic missiles at US troops in the Middle East overnight, every one was intercepted, and oil prices surged more than 4% anyway, because markets don't price what happened, they price what comes next.

The Fed held rates steady for the fifth meeting in a row, which sounds boring until you realise your mortgage rate and your savings rate have both been frozen since December while a Middle East conflict quietly pushes prices higher.

South Korea's stock market triggered a trading halt today after SK Hynix, one of the world's biggest AI memory chip makers, reported record profits and still saw its stock tumble more than 15%, which tells you everything about how brutal the expectations game has become in the AI trade.

If today's episode helped you cut through the noise, a five-star rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify takes about ten seconds and genuinely helps other people find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

---

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:07 Iran Launches Ballistic Missile Salvo at US Forces; Oil Surg

02:51 Fed Holds Rates at 3.50–3.75% for Fifth Straight Meeting Und

05:15 South Korea's KOSPI Tumbles 8%+ as Chip Rout Deepens on SK H

07:10 Closing thoughts

Support the show

Today on The Open Bell:

South Korea had to hit the pause button on its entire stock market this morning as the global bet on AI spending started looking a lot shakier than it did last week.

A Chinese memory chip company you've almost certainly never heard of briefly became worth more than Walmart on its very first day of trading, and that tells you something important about where Beijing thinks the real war in tech is being fought.

While everyone was watching chips crater, Europe's economy quietly crossed back into growth for the first time in months, which is either a genuine turning point or the most poorly timed piece of good news in recent memory.

If this helped you make sense of a genuinely strange day in markets, a quick rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify helps the next listener find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

---

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:14 Korea halts trading as Kospi plunges 9% on AI spending doubt

03:00 China's CXMT IPO surges 535% on Shanghai debut, valued at $4

05:09 Eurozone and UK PMIs return to expansion, lifting European s

07:07 Closing thoughts

Support the show

Today on The Open Bell:

Oil just had its worst day in months, and the reason is genuinely good news: Iran and the US have agreed to stop hitting each other, at least for now, and the relief in energy markets was immediate and dramatic.

The European Central Bank held rates steady at 2.25% last week, but the message underneath the pause was clear enough that anybody with a mortgage or a business loan in Europe should probably pay attention to September.

Japan's inflation ticked up for the first time since March, and the story buried inside that number points straight back to the Persian Gulf, which tells you just how connected all of this really is.

If this helped you join the dots today, a quick rating in your podcast app helps the next listener find the show.

Hosted by Alex Monroe. New episodes every weekday morning at theopenbell.co

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

---

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:13 Brent Crude Tumbles 7%+ as US and Iran Suspend Strikes

03:03 ECB Holds at 2.25% with Hawkish Tone; September Hike on Tabl

05:21 Japan Core CPI Rises to 1.6% in June, First Uptick Since Mar

07:18 Closing thoughts

Support the show