Dean Blundell is a Canadian liberal muckracker, Substacker, and the host of the Dean Blundell podcast. We talk election night surprises, Pierre Poilievre’s journey from 92% favorite to losing his own seat, and what’s next for US-Canada economic and security relations under Carney.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:00) Election night surprises

(03:59) Voting trends in Canada

(07:55) Canadian real estate & conservative over-performance

(11:05) Why anti-immigrant politics is not working in Canada

(16:03) Did Pierre Poilievre lose because of creepiness?

(24:30) Can Canadians ‘wait out’ Trump?

(29:00) Canada is diversifying away from the US economy

(35:00) Canada recession this year?

(41:30) The F-35 deal is dead

(44:00) Will the Alberta separatists get a boost?

(54:10) American vs Canadian media environment

(58:00) Political betting in Canada

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Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally.

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This episode is a mashup of two polar opposite views on the ongoing US-Iran negotiations (🔮 46% odds of a US-Iran deal this year).

Sina Toossi, an Iran expert at the Center for International Policy, thinks the market is underrating chances for a breakthrough this year. Next, Ambassador John Bolton, a perma-hawk who served as National security Advisor in Trump’s first term, is optimistic about a quick and cheap military option carried out by Israel or the US (🔮 24% odds of an Israeli strike on Iran before July).

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Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit news.polymarket.com

Maxime Bernier is the founder of the People's Party of Canada (PPC) and former Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Bernier is campaigning on an accommodating response to the Trump tariffs, restricting immigration to Canada, and an increase in military spending. On Polymarket, the PPC is currently projected to win zero seats in Monday's election.

Follow Maxime on X: @MaximeBernier

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:00) Could Pierre Poilievre lose his own seat?

(04:45) Resisting the national mood to fight Trump

(07:58) Didn't Trump throw out the last trade deal with Canada?

(09:30) Populist movements, birthrates and GDP per capita

(16:10) Does Trump prefer to deal with Carney?

(17:10) Does Trump threaten Canadian sovereignty?

(18:44) Secessionist movements in Canada

(21:00) Questioning Canada's role in NATO

(22:27) What if Trump gets Greenland, Panama Canal, and parts of Canada

(24:30) Maxime's Election predictions

(20:04) How the Ukraine war ends

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Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally.

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John Konrad is a former merchant marine captain and the founder of gCaptain, a news site covering shipping and global trade. In this episode we cover Trump tariff scenarios, the Panama Canal and other naval chokepoints, US shipbuilding, and more.

Timestamps

(00:00) Introductions

(02:00) Tariffs are a bad deal

(05:10) Non-linear thinking & embracing chaos

(07:10) Why the zero tariff world is gone

(13:35) Inflation and global trade tensions

(14:49) Revaluing the dollar

(19:45) 3 possible tariff scenarios

(26:04) Control of the Panama Canal

(29:44) Who can take more pain: US or China?

(34:10) Is John rare earth pilled?

(37:10) How long before tariffs snarl supply chains?

(43:30) US naval dominance

(48:05) Houthis, drones and asymmetric warfare

(53:01) Why shipowners don't want to return to the Suez

(57:50) John's #1 forecasting tip

(59:10) Who blew up the Nord Stream pipeline?

(60:30) Day after a Strait of Hormuz closure

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Disclaimer

Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit news.polymarket.com

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Porter Stansberry is the founder of Stansberry Research, one of the largest private financial publishers in the US.

In a recent tweet, he predicted that the United States will default on its debt within four years. We had him on to talk the tariff endgame, future of the dollar, inflation, US manufacturing, and how he’s positioned today.

* Follow Porter on X

* Get Porter’s Daily Journal

Timestamps

(00:00) Introduction

(1:00) US default prediction

(2:59) Will Trump cut Social Security?

(4:07) Why Trump loves tariffs

(5:33) End of US dollar dominance and alternatives?

(12:12) Will DOGE make a dent?

(13:57) What would a serious version of US industrial policy look like?

(18:30) Can Trump move the Republican party towards tariffs?

(20:05) How Trump's tariff policy will fail

(21:45) Tariffs and inflation

(26:05) Can the US go "cold turkey" off China?

(29:06) Bitcoin as a reserve currency

(31:05) Porter's portfolio today

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Disclaimer

Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit news.polymarket.com

Dmitri Alperovitch is the founder of cybersecurity firm Crowdstrike, Chairman of geopolitical think tank Silverado Policy Accelerator, and the author of World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century.

In the forecasting community, Dmitri is legendary for his call of Russia's invasion of Ukraine two months before it happened.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(04:30) How easy is it to hack Signal?

(10:00) Ukraine & Trump's transactional foreign policy

(26:00) How Dmitry Predicted the Russian invasion

(27:36) Ukraine Russia ceasefire predictions

(33:30) Will Trump pull out of NATO?

(32:50) Taiwan's strategic importance

(40:10) What happens if China gets Taiwan?

(43:01) Indicators of a possible Taiwan invasion

(48:30) The Taiwan blockade scenario

(53:20) Will Trump defend Taiwan?

(56:30) Does Deep Seek mean chip controls backfired?

(1:06:10) China, AI, and Biotech

(1:11:20) AI lab espionage

(1:15:00) Middle East and Israel-Saudi normalization?

(1:18:00) The Red Sea conflict

(1:19:02) North Korea deal pt. 2?

(1:24:42) Are Iran, China, Russia, and North Korea an "axis"?

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Disclaimer

Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit news.polymarket.com

Thanks for reading The Oracle by Polymarket. Subscribe free to join 55,550 readers who trust markets, not experts.

Matthew Pines is the Executive Director of the Bitcoin Policy Institute and an advisor to Skywatcher, a privately-funded UAP crash retrieval program. We talk:

(2:30) How to spend time outside the Overton window to identify low probability, high impact events.

(8:30) How UAPs moved from the realm of Alex Jones to the National Defense Authorization Act.

(12:30) Has Bitcoin been captured by the state?

(28:10) Odds for a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in 2025?

(41:40) Is it bad for Bitcoin if DOGE gets government spending under control?

(58:31) How does Matt evaluate new whistleblower claims about UAPs?

(63:37) Matt's personal confidence level for various UAP scenarios: existence, reverse engineering, genetic materials, psionic assets, etc.

(70:36) How can we bet on this? What types of prediction markets will help us evaluate disclosures coming this year?

(79: 44) What will Skywatcher do if / when they retrieve a UAP?

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Disclaimer

Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit news.polymarket.com

Jeff Park is the Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise, and the author of “Radical Portfolio Theory,” the case for a portfolio with 60% centralized state maximal assets, and 40% decentralized, private assets that are state power resistant.

As part of the 40% “resistance” bucket, Jeff argues for an allocation to professional gambling, which could include things like sports betting, poker, and, yes, prediction market trading. We talk:

* DeepSeek: Is “phase 1” of the AI trade over?

* Prediction Markets: Mental tricks from options trading

* Institutional Adoption of Information Markets: Are the banks coming for our Taylor Swift engagement shares?

* The Microstrategy Trade: Who’s the sucker at the table and why convertible equity could be a game changer

* Prediction Rapid Fire

* Strategic Bitcoin reserve when?

* Next nation-states to buy BTC

* Which Microstrategy risks are overblown and what Jeff worries about with the trade

* One big mistake to avoid in BTC price markets

Follow Jeff on X.

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Disclaimer

Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit news.polymarket.com

On Friday January 3rd the House of Representatives will vote to select the next Speaker. On Polymarket the odds for whether Johnson will be out as Speaker before inauguration sit at 12%.

But a Substack post this morning by veteran reporter Chris Cillizza argued that these odds are too low and the current narrow Republican majority in the House makes it a real possibility that Johnson could face a substantial challenge.

We caught up with Chris for a chat on why he thinks the market is potentially overrating Johnson’s chances and what it means for the Speaker vote and Trump’s second term agenda.

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Disclaimer

Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally.

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Thanks for reading The Oracle by Polymarket. Subscribe free to join 30,535 readers who trust markets, not experts.

Today we are publishing our first podcast, a conversation recorded Friday with Jim Bianco covering all things macro through the lens of Polymarket odds. We cover:

* When Jim thinks the Fed's rate cutting cycle might end,

* What Trump's tariffs might look like,

* The odds for a US bank failure in the coming months,

* Jim's contrarian take on what he expects Powell to say at the FOMC press conference this week; and

* What economic markets Jim would like to see on Polymarket

Disclaimer

Nothing in The Oracle is financial, investment, legal or any other type of professional advice. Anything provided in any newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not meant to be an endorsement of any type of activity or any particular market or product. Terms of Service on polymarket.com prohibit US persons and persons from certain other jurisdictions from using Polymarket to trade, although data and information is viewable globally.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit news.polymarket.com