The 2022 invasion of Ukraine fundamentally reshaped EU-Russia ties, leading to a "radical breakdown". This report analyzes the energy, political, and social dimensions of this new reality. Historically intertwined in energy, the EU has now drastically reduced imports of Russian fossil fuels, banning coal and most oil, and cutting gas imports by 75%. The EU's REPowerEU plan aims for full energy independence by 2027. Russia is pivoting its energy exports, particularly oil, towards Asia, notably China and India. However, replacing lost European gas markets is challenging due to infrastructure limitations. A persistent nuclear dependency remains for some EU states reliant on Russian VVER reactors and fuel.
Politically, the relationship has shifted from attempts at partnership under agreements like the PCA and Four Common Spaces to profound antagonism. Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the full-scale invasion in 2022 were key milestones in this deterioration. The EU has imposed unprecedented sanctions across finance, energy, and technology, significantly impacting the Russian economy, though Russia shows resilience through reorientation of trade and circumvention tactics like the 'shadow fleet'. Russia's foreign policy has shifted from viewing the EU as a partner to seeing the West as hostile. The EU's response includes a focus on containment, pressure, and supporting Ukraine, while boosting its own defense capabilities.
Socio-culturally, a deep chasm in values and governance models exists. Public opinion in the EU largely supports Ukraine and sanctions, while Russian state media propagates disinformation. Human rights remain a major point of contention, with a severe deterioration in Russia, leading to Russia's expulsion from the Council of Europe. People-to-people contacts have significantly eroded, with suspensions of cultural and educational exchanges.
The future likely holds continued confrontation, with a potential for unstable coexistence. A return to partnership is highly improbable without fundamental changes in Russia. This breakdown accelerates the EU's pursuit of strategic autonomy and reshapes global energy and geopolitical landscapes, influenced by the US and China.
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