The Political Risk Brief

Election 2024 already has reshaped the American political landscape. The Baron team details the “four great betrayals” that produced the most remarkable presidential campaign in decades.  Now, once and future President Donald J. Trump leads a fractious coalition on the Right, and the business community must navigate an unfamiliar and changing competitive environment.

As the country hurtles toward a presidential election, surprising uncertainty surrounds the specific policy preferences of a possible second Trump Administration. In this episode, the Baron team highlights trends from the firm’s recent Influencer Analytics study of the most important outside influencers around President Trump and his campaign.  Based on Baron’s collection and assessment of more than 16,000 reference citations made by former President Trump and dozens of campaign advisors, the conversation explores the information environment around the Trump Campaign as issues critical to American business – especially taxes, trade, and antitrust – hang in the balance.

The Baron team delves into the political stability of Europe and examines the future of the European project.  Based on Baron principal Jonathan Baron’s recent trip to the former Austro-Hungarian Empire, the discussion also covers potential scenarios for the revitalization or decline of Europe as an important consideration for America’s approach to geopolitics. 

The denizens of “Gucci Gulch” have fallen on hard times.  For even the largest lobbying firms, average monthly retainers have declined during the last decade.  To add insult to injury, this lobbying recession has occurred amidst unprecedented overall prosperity for Washington, D.C.  Episode 22 of the Political Risk Brief podcast explores this curious trend and corporate political competition in an era of lobbying stalemate.

Leaders in government and business should recognize America’s social capital collapse as the most serious threat to the nation’s political stability and economic strength.  In this episode, Baron analyzes the policy implications of a nation “falling apart” and explores potential solutions.

Even as the U.S.-China economic relationship remains pivotal, Beijing increasingly denies outsiders visibility into the nation’s intentions and governance.  Previous approaches to understanding and shaping Beijing’s views – whether utilizing either high-prestige “fixers,” or on-the-ground data sources – have proven unreliable. In episode 20 of the Political Risk Brief, the Baron team presents the firm’s recently released Influencer Analytics research on the people, businesses, and institutions that matter to Beijing.

Philanthropic foundations today act as major competitors in policymaking, often dwarfing the efforts of even the largest private enterprises. Although commonly unrecognized or underestimated, massive not-for-profit organizations increasingly shape the elite policy consensus. In this episode, the Baron team discusses this “invisible hand” guiding political competition and recommends approaches for business leaders.

The health care sector has entered a period of intensified political conflict. Building for decades and accelerated by powerful external forces, this clash of some of the nation’s largest companies promises to affect millions of Americans and reveals important lessons regarding corporate competition waged through the arena of government. The Baron team reviews the history of health care politics and the emerging trends shaping America’s largest economic sector.

Often in American political life, an individual or small group embodies an era. In this episode, Baron explores Washington’s current man of the moment: Jeffrey Zients.  His rise to the pinnacle of national political power reveals fundamental insights into America’s contemporary political elite.

The ever-changing competition to shape policy in Washington, D.C. challenges even the most experienced practitioners. In this episode, the Baron team distills the critical government relations trends that define the current government relations and issue advocacy landscape.