Every poll showed Paxton leading in the Texas Senate primary — and every poll ended up wrong. Mark called it last episode, and he's back to explain why undecided voters are the key factor that most pollsters keep ignoring.

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In this episode, we cover:

• Was the Texas Senate primary a polling failure or a lesson in reading between the lines? Talarico beat Crockett despite being down in nearly every public poll. We break down why Mark saw it coming.

• Cornyn vs. Paxton: Who wins the runoff, and does a Trump endorsement help or hurt? The Texas Senate runoff sets up a three-month battle between the GOP establishment and the MAGA base. Michael argues a Trump endorsement of Cornyn could paradoxically boost Paxton.

• Byron Donalds leads Florida's governor's race... but is it closer than it looks? A new James Madison Institute poll shows Donalds up 18 points in the GOP primary. We analyze what the undecided numbers reveal and whether Casey DeSantis entering the race could blow the whole thing up.

• What do rapid-fire Iran favorability polls actually measure? Multiple polls dropped within days of Trump's military actions in Iran, and they were surprisingly consistent despite different question framings. We discuss why these results reflect emotional sentiment more than policy opinion, and why the numbers could look completely different a week from now.

• Why do some Trump voters seem to be "forgetting" they voted for Trump? Michael critiques a new article from The Argument that examines panel data showing voters revising who they say they voted for in 2024.

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Michael Melendez, co-founder and pollster at Tactical Campaigns.

The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.

Want to stay ahead of the data curve?

Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines.

Sign up to get exclusive access to new episodes! Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

The Texas Senate primaries are a month away with both sides still a toss-up. Who's going to win, and does Texas finally have a chance of turning purple?

In this episode, we cover:

• Is Texas becoming a purple state, or are Democrats fooling themselves? With two interesting primaries on both the Republican and Democratic sides, we break down why the Texas Senate race has gone national, why Emerson's polling is a major outlier showing James Talarico up double digits, and whether the Beto comparisons actually hold up. Plus, what a Trump endorsement could do to the GOP field. - Economic fairness vs. economic growth: What's behind the shift?
• A new Rasmussen poll shows the 21-point margin favoring economic growth has nearly vanished. We analyze whether Trump's populist language is driving Republican voters toward "fairness," what it means that people feel left behind despite strong stock market numbers, and how the parties' economic coalitions are realigning.
• Our latest Overton Insights Utah Poll results: From housing policy to the Jazz, we dig into what was suprising and what was totally expected. The majority of Utahns support accessory dwelling units in their neighborhood, back micro schools, and overwhelmingly support privacy protections.

Emerson Texas Senate Poll: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll/

Rasmussen Economic Fairness Poll: https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/general_business/rising_concern_for_economic_fairness

Overton Insights Utah Poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/overton-insights-poll-utah-january-2026/

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Michael Melendez, co-founder and pollster at Tactical Campaigns.

The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.

Want to stay ahead of the data curve?

Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines.

Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights

Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

Explore our latest poll - Overton Insights Utah Statewide Poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/overton-insights-poll-utah-january-2026/

Welcome back to The Polling Alley! In this episode, we're breaking down tight races in Ohio, what tax-free gambling could mean for prediction markets, and key local election results across the country.

• Could tax-free gambling help or hurt prediction markets? – Trump recently told a reporter he'd consider eliminating taxes on gambling winnings. We discuss what this could mean for sports betting platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel, how prediction markets might respond, and whether politicians should be allowed to bet on races they have inside knowledge about.
• Ohio's surprisingly tight 2026 races – New Emerson College polling shows Vivek Ramaswamy's double-digit lead over Amy Acton has vanished, with Acton now up by 1 point. We break down what's driving the shift and look at the Senate race to fill JD Vance's old seat, where Jon Husted leads Sherrod Brown by just 3 points. Is Ohio becoming a swing state again?
• Rapid-fire local race breakdown – From Miami mayor, to a closer-than-expected House race in Tennessee, to Omar Fateh's showing as a democratic socialist in Minneapolis, we analyze what these results do and don't signal for both parties heading into the midterms.

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Michael Melendez, co-founder and pollster at Tactical Campaigns. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Emerson College Ohio 2026 Poll: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/ohio-2026-poll-democrats-make-gains-in-races-for-governor-and-us-senate/

Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com Explore our latest poll - November 2025 Overton Insights Poll

Welcome to the very first episode of The Polling Alley! In this episode we're diving deep into a debate that's dividing the data world: polls vs prediction markets. Mark and Michael also analyze the government shutdown's effects on the November elections and some interesting finds from our own latest poll.

In this premiere episode, we cover:

• What's the difference between prediction markets and traditional polls? – We break down how prediction markets work compared to conventional polling, examine their accuracy, track record, and explore whether betting odds are the future of election forecasting.

• Did the government shutdown influence the November 2025 off-year elections? – We analyze the polling data on public opinion before and after the shutdown to uncover whether it moved the needle with voters. Mark and Michael share their take as to which races saw the biggest impact, if any.

• Key Takeaways from Overton Insights – We reveal interesting political findings from our own research and what they tell us about emerging trends, some of which you won't find in mainstream coverage.

The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Michael Melendez, founder and pollster at Tactical Campaigns and former Director of Polling and Western Region for the Trafalgar Group. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.

Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com Explore our latest poll - November 2025 Overton Insights Poll