The Pomp Letter

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To investors,

Quantitative easing is back. The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut yesterday, which brings the federal funds rate down to 3.50-3.75%. The vote had three dissenters, including two people who thought we should have left rates unchanged and Fed Governor Stephen Miran who wanted a 50 basis point cut.

While the interest rate cut is important, it was consensus across Wall Street that the central bank would reduce the cost of capital by 25 basis points. The big surprise coming out of the two day meeting was the Fed’s announcement to restart balance sheet expansion with $40 billion in monthly Treasury bill buys.

My friends at Geiger Capital put it best when they reminded us that Ben Bernanke promised in 2008 that QE was temporary and the Fed’s balance sheet would soon be lower than when they started.

As you can see, the Fed’s balance sheet has continued to grow over time and now Jerome Powell is telling us that it is time to go back higher. This entire situation is highly unusual. Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello outlined it perfectly:

* Stocks: all-time high

* Home Prices: all-time high

* Gold: all-time high

* Money Supply: all-time high

* National Debt: all-time high

* CPI Inflation: 4% per year since Jan 2020, 2x the Fed’s “target”

* Fed: cut rates again today & will start QE on Friday

But as I wrote earlier this week, multiple deflationary forces are headed for a collision with the US economy. We have AI, robotics, tariffs, and a surge in deportations. Each would be worth watching on their own, but they collectively create the perfect storm for the Fed to fail at monetary policy.

Add in weakness in the job market and it becomes clear why the Fed has to get interest rates lower. So now that we know QE is coming back, what will happen to asset prices?

Remember, when the Fed buys bonds, it pushes bond yields down and encourages investors to move into riskier assets in search of higher returns. This “liquidity wave” makes borrowing cheaper, boosts confidence, and raises demand across financial markets.

The biggest beneficiaries of QE are almost always risk assets. Stocks tend to rise because future earnings are discounted at lower rates, making companies appear more valuable. Bitcoin and other digital assets benefit because investors look for assets that outperform cash when money supply expands. Real estate goes up because mortgages become cheaper and investors chase hard assets. Long-duration assets—like tech stocks, growth companies, and venture-backed businesses—often rise the most because their value depends on future cash flows, which become more attractive when rates fall.

So what assets suffer during QE?

One of the big losers should be the U.S. dollar, which tends to weaken when more dollars are created, and short-term cash-like investments, which offer lower yields and become less attractive relative to risk assets. Traditional value stocks, commodities tied to economic stress, and defensive sectors may lag because QE shifts investor appetite away from safety and toward growth and speculation. Overall, QE is designed to inflate financial assets, and historically it has done exactly that.

This means investors are about to be very happy.

I took my analysis of QE’s impact one step further and I asked Silvia, the AI CFO that we built, to explain how the return of QE should impact my personal portfolio. She told me “the rate cuts are highly favorable for your portfolio, particularly your private investments and crypto. Your Opendoor position is also well-positioned to benefit from housing market recovery.

However, the Fed’s signal of fewer cuts ahead means the easy gains may be behind us. The key risk is your extreme concentration in private investments, which makes you exceptionally sensitive to any Fed policy changes.

Your portfolio is essentially a leveraged bet on lower rates — which has worked brilliantly so far, but requires careful monitoring as the Fed slows its cutting pace in 2026.”

You can ask Silvia to analyze your personal portfolio by signing up for free by clicking here.

Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Bitcoin vs The Fed: Who Wins in 2026?

Jeff Park is a Partner & Chief Investment Officer at ProCap Financial.

In this conversation, we break down the Fed’s year-end shift toward rate cuts and easier liquidity, what it means for markets, and why bitcoin sentiment feels so negative despite strong performance.

Jeff also digs into how AI investment is reshaping the macro landscape, what institutional players like BlackRock and Stripe signal for crypto, and why ProCap’s mission centers on bitcoin and the coming age of abundance.

Enjoy!

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* Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. www.abra.com.

* Bitizenship – Get Italian Residency with €250k investment in Bitcoin Startup Italy , maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

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* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

* Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.

* Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.5% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.

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* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

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To Investors,

The American economy is booming. At least that is what the GDP numbers are telling us. US GDP grew 3.8% year-over-year in Q2 and the Atlanta Fed is estimating Q3 growth to be between 3.5% - 3.8%.

Historical context is important to understand the magnitude of these numbers. The average GDP growth for countries around the world is approximately 2.9% and the United States has outperformed for the last 80 years by growing GDP on average 3.2% annually from 1947 to 2025.

So what is driving the good times right now?

The answer is very simple: artificial intelligence. Adam Kobeissi shows that approximately 63% of all GDP growth is coming from AI-related spending. This means that without the AI CAPEX boom, the US economy would be in a significantly worse position.

This AI-related spending can be best visualized by looking at data center spending since 2020. Kobeissi writes “spending on data centers in the US has tripled since the release of ChatGPT in November 2022. Spending on structures excluding data centers is down ~20% since the 2023 high. The strength of technology companies has created two “economies” in the US.”

Speaking of two economies, compare the explosion in AI-related spending with the fact that US small business bankruptcies reached a record 2,221 year-to-date. This is up 83% over the last five years. These bankruptcies reflect high borrowing costs, cautious consumer spending, and economic pressures disproportionately affecting smaller businesses.

This second economy also saw US employers announce 1.2 million job cuts in 2025, which is the second-highest in 16 years. These job cuts create a paradox where labor market deterioration coincides with the S&P 500 adding $17 trillion since April.

Think of how crazy that is.

Small businesses are going bankrupt and more than a million people lost their job, but US corporate profits hit record highs in Q4 amid strong demand and pricing power.

If you looked up the definition of opposing outcomes, you would find these data points front and center as they expose inequality between corporate performance and worker outcomes. Plenty of people will use this information to rail against the system. They will stoke populism and claim that the only path forward is socialism.

But we know that is not true. In fact, history shows us over and over again that economic incentives drive outcomes. Programs like Invest America will give people a stake in the capitalist system, while providing a financial head start for millions of young people.

And the data shows that young people, particularly Gen Z, may be more enthusiastic about financial markets than you would think.

Gen Z is starting to invest earlier than previous generations. About 54% of this cohort are beginning by age 21 compared to 31% of millennials and 27% of Gen X.

Additionally, 63% of young adults view the stock market as an excellent wealth-builder. Gen Z favors stocks and millennials lean more into crypto as their primary investment. What is maybe most interesting, younger generations are nearly 3x more likely to hold speculative assets, including crypto-related stocks and day trading.

So what is my big takeaway from all of this?

There are pockets of great data in the economy and financial markets, but those big trends like AI are covering for areas of weakness. That is normal. There are people claiming everything is great or everything is horrible…both of the groups are right.

But maybe the real lesson here is that we should trust the kids. They are enthusiastic. They are pouring capital into financial markets. They see value in AI, bitcoin, crypto, and robotics. These young people are predicting the future. We all should just make sure we are listening.

Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Is the Fed About to Trigger the Next Bitcoin Boom?

I recently sat down with John Pompliano to dig into what’s really at stake at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting - whether the move should be 25 bps, 50 bps, or nothing at all.

We breakdown how those decisions ripple through markets and why bitcoin’s unique monetary policy is becoming impossible for the world to ignore. Plus, discuss the shift as bitcoin miners move into AI infrastructure - why it’s happening, how they’re doing it, and what it means for investors.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp

* Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. www.abra.com.

* Bitizenship – Get Italian Residency with €250k investment in Bitcoin Startup Italy , maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

* Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.

* Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.5% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/

* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

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To investors,

Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee start their two day meeting later today and the market is closely watching whether the Fed will cut interest rates or not.

Polymarket odds have a 25 basis point cut at 95%, while no change sits at a 5% chance.

If the Federal Reserve cuts rates, this will mark the third consecutive cut of the year (following 50 basis points in September and 25 basis points in October) and serve as “insurance” against deepening labor market risks, even as inflation remains sticky above the 2% target.

But I want to lay out the argument for the Fed to actually make a 50 basis point cut tomorrow. First, we know the labor market is softening, which is raising fears of a broader slowdown or recession if the situation is not addressed aggressively.

Nonfarm payrolls added only 119,000 jobs in September. This is a sharp deceleration from post-pandemic averages and the report came in below expectations. Due to this deceleration, the unemployment rate has ticked up to 4.4%.

We have also seen layoff announcements surge to 1.17 million year-to-date. This is the highest level of layoff announcements we have seen since the 2020 pandemic. Simultaneously, hiring plans have reportedly hit their lowest level since the end of the Great Financial Crisis.

Lastly, private-sector indicators like ADP jobs data and Challenger layoff reports have weakened even more in November. These trends suggest job growth is insufficient to match labor force expansion. The case for a 50 basis point cut related to the labor market is a larger cut would bolster employment and prevent a vicious cycle of reduced spending and further hiring freezes.

But the argument for a 50 basis point cut doesn’t solely rely on the labor market.

The government inflation metrics, which I believe to be wildly overestimating inflation, also provide support for a larger interest rate cut. Core PCE inflation is currently around 3% (about 1% above target), but disinflationary forces mitigate reacceleration risks. This should free the Fed to focus on their dual mandate employment goals.

Critics claim goods prices remain sticky due to tariffs and fiscal stimulus, but falling crude oil prices, excess rental supply, and declining home prices introduce deflation risks that give the green light for deeper cuts in my opinion.

On top of these converging forces, Fed projections and market-implied inflation show expectations anchored near 2%. This is obviously lower than consumer surveys which are projecting closer to 4% expectations, but we know the surveys are corrupted and likely further off than the market consensus. A 50 basis point cut would align with the Fed’s October statement committing to adjust policy “as appropriate if risks emerge,” so America’s central bank could easily frame the larger cut as targeted support rather than a policy pivot.

So we have a weakening labor market and an inflation environment, but ultimately the decision to cut more than 25 basis points still has to be made by humans that make up the FOMC.

Thankfully, there are a few common sense folks inside the building that seem to believe in the benefit of a larger cut. We know the FOMC is unusually divided right now and this could lay the foundation for a surprise aggressive cut.

Governor Stephen Miran has recently dissented twice in favor of 50 basis point cuts. He argued in November it’s “appropriate” for a large December cut to counter labor risks. At the time, he said about the severity of the December cut “at a minimum 25 [basis points], but failing new information... 50 is appropriate.”

Miran isn’t the only one. New York Fed President John Williams and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly have signaled support for looser monetary policy. Williams explicitly said he views a cut as “insurance” against labor slippage without jeopardizing inflation goals.

So what do analysts think is going to happen inside the Fed?

Analysts at Nomura forecast a dovish dissent from Miran pushing for 50 basis points, while others will have potential hawkish dissents against even a 25 basis point move. This highlights the unusual 60-40 split between committee members on easing policy.

This internal dynamic, which is rare because we almost never see opposite-direction dissents over the last 35 years, could tip the balance toward bolder action or a more aggressive interest rate cut.

So what are my expectations?

I think we will merely get a 25 basis point cut. I wish it was a 50 basis point cut, but I just don’t see the Fed building enough internal support to be more aggressive. The market dynamics warrant the larger cut. The economy would be better off with the larger cut. Unfortunately, the Fed plays it too safe though. They are scared of seeing themselves in the mirror, let alone making a bold decision.

So now we all wait and see what happens. The Fed will conduct their FOMC meeting. Trillions of dollars will speculate on what one man, Jerome Powell, will say at the press conference tomorrow.

And the world will keep spinning, the American economy will continue strengthening, and stocks will surge higher in the coming months. The Fed can’t stop this train, regardless of how bad they are at managing monetary policy.

Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Bitcoin & Artificial Intelligence Just Hit A Major Inflection Point with Jordi Visser

Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience, and he also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos.

In this conversation we break down the major forces driving markets today — bitcoin’s price action, accelerating institutional adoption, the latest AI developments, internal tensions at OpenAI, and an overlooked industrial company he believes will be critical to the future economy.

We wrap with a sharp look at the Fed, interest rates, deflation signals, and why easy money is still flowing through the system.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsor

* Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp

* Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. www.abra.com.

* Bitizenship – Get Italian Residency with €250k investment in Bitcoin Startup Italy , maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

* Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.

* Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.5% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/

* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

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To investors,

The US economy is getting hit with multiple deflationary forces at the same time. These converging trends are forcing the hand of the Federal Reserve towards lower interest rates and more money printing.

First, we know that artificial intelligence and robotics are squeezing an insane amount of inefficiency out of every corner of the system. Companies can now drive more profits with fewer employees, which is usually referred to as “good deflation.” This is when supply expands faster than demand.

So where can we see this happening in today’s economy? We see example after example of productivity surges, cost compression, and quality enhancements. This fosters a “deflationary boom,” where goods and services become cheaper, enhancing consumer purchasing power and supporting GDP growth without overheating.

AI is not only making companies more productive, but we are reaching a point where AI can write its own software. Eventually, technologists promise us that humanoid robots will be doing many things in society, including manufacturing and assembling more humanoid robots. This type of exponential productivity is hard to understand today. It is probably the most important deflationary trend though.

Elon Musk, the founder of numerous multi-billion dollar companies at the intersection of AI and robotics, recently discussed how these technologies should create deflation and help address the national debt crisis.

Take a listen:

It seems like deflation is the obvious end state when Elon explains his view on these technologies in relation to the growth of America’s money supply.

But Elon understands that AI and robotics are still not making a big enough impact on the economy to reach a deflationary state yet. Part of that gap is because of the ridiculous amount of money that is being printed by the US government, but another aspect is that AI and robotics remain in a relatively nascent stage.

Elon’s estimation is that the US economy will hit a deflationary period in three years:

Now Elon Musk is known for aggressive timelines and plenty of critics will argue that his estimation is off by a decade or more. I wouldn’t be so sure though. The pace of innovation, and the acceleration in adoption for AI and robotics, tells me the deflationary impact is much closer than most people realize.

These technology trends are not happening in a silo either.

The second big trend we have to pay attention to are demographics and proposed policy shifts. Both of these are curbing consumer demand and shrinking the labor supply, creating a potential “deflationary shock.” Economist David Rosenberg highlights three converging forces:

* Aging workforce: The US median age is 42.3 (up from 36 in 2000), with the dependency ratio (the number of non-working people vs people of working age) rising to 37% by 2035, reducing spending on discretionary goods.

* Immigration restrictions: Tighter policies limit population growth and low-wage labor inflows, suppressing household formation and service-sector demand.

* Tariffs: broad tariffs (e.g., on imports) could slash consumer spending by raising costs, leading to a demand cliff.

These three factors could weaken aggregate demand, which can cause prices to fall as businesses face oversupply and cut prices to clear inventory. On the positive side, lower demand might stabilize housing and services inflation, but it risks a vicious cycle of delayed spending and job losses, especially in retail and construction.

Getting this balance right is very important. You want deflation without recession. This can only be done by creating positive supply-side factors rather than a collapse in demand. This is often called “good deflation” or “growth deflation,” where prices fall due to increased productivity, technological advancements, or efficiency improvements that boost output and real incomes.

As one example, we are seeing this “good deflation” happen in energy costs over the last year. The decline in energy costs are due to increased domestic production, milder global demand, and efficiency gains from renewables and AI-optimized grids. US gasoline prices are projected to drop 3% (11 cents/gallon) in 2025 vs. 2024, with energy inflation at -1.6% year-over-year as of July 2025.

These cheaper energy prices act as a broad disinflationary tailwind, including lower input costs for manufacturing and transportation. This boosts household disposable income (ex: saving the average driver ~$150/year on fuel) and supports profit margins for energy-intensive industries. However, prolonged declines could hurt oil/gas producers (ex: job cuts in Texas), contributing to regional economic slowdowns. Nationally, it reinforces the Fed’s path to 2% inflation but amplifies deflation risks if paired with weak demand elsewhere.

Specific to energy costs, these drivers are predominantly supply-side (AI and increased energy production) or demand-constraining (demographics/policies). This combination promotes sustainable growth but raising risks of a sharper downturn if they intensify. Again, remember the balance of deflation without recession is really important to get right.

The United States has been able to accomplish this many times throughout history. Here is a list of example time periods:

We have done it before, which means we can do it again. Technology, demographics, and policies can bring prices down and create an economic boom.

Elon Musk knows it is possible. He is quite literally trying to create that future. But for all the talk of inflation, it seems like many investors are ill-prepared for a world where deflation dominates the economy.

As Stanley Druckenmiller once said, “Every serious deflation I’ve looked at is preceded by an asset bubble, and then it bursts.” And there are plenty of people screeching about an asset bubble given current prices. So now the question becomes “will the asset bubble burst and bring deflation?”

I will let each of you answer that question for yourself.

Hope you have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Bitcoin & Artificial Intelligence Just Hit A Major Inflection Point with Jordi Visser

Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience, and he also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos.

In this conversation we break down the major forces driving markets today — bitcoin’s price action, accelerating institutional adoption, the latest AI developments, internal tensions at OpenAI, and an overlooked industrial company he believes will be critical to the future economy.

We wrap with a sharp look at the Fed, interest rates, deflation signals, and why easy money is still flowing through the system.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsor

* Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp

* Bitizenship – Get Italian Residency with €250k investment in Bitcoin Startup Italy , maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

* Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.

* easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.

* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

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To investors,

There is wild speculation over who the next Federal Reserve Chairman will be.

It has essentially become a finance soap opera. There was a period of time where the President was threatening to fire Jerome Powell. We saw the administration pressuring the Fed into cutting rates more aggressively. Housing Director Bill Pulte found reported mortgage fraud emanating from one of the Fed Governors, which led to a big legal dispute on whether the President could fire the Governor. And most recently, Stephen Miran replaced Adriana Kugler on the Fed’s Board of Governors after Kugler stepped down to return to academic life.

This type of chaos is relatively unprecedented for America’s central bank. But the entire Trump administration has been relatively unprecedented, so maybe that makes the chaos part of the strategy.

This brings us to the big question: who will be the next Fed Chairman?

While we won’t know until the official announcement, President Trump seemed to give us a hint yesterday during a public appearance at the White House. Watch what he said about Kevin Hassett and the Fed Chairman speculation:

Polymarket odds have Kevin Hassett as the dominant favorite (83%) to be the next Fed Chairman as well.

So who exactly is Kevin Hassett and do we think this is a good choice?

Kevin Hassett is a well-known supply-side economist. His policy views are focused on unleashing economic growth through tax cuts, deregulation, and accommodative monetary policy. A key component of his world view is that we should prioritize growth over very strict inflation control.

Many people consider Hassett to be a “pro-growth” conservative. This is based on his argument that lower barrier to investment and production can raise wages, boost innovation, and enhance national security.

None of those seem like bad ideas. The question is how do we get those outcomes? That is where the big debate and controversy lies.

Now another aspect of Hassett’s views comes from a book he wrote in 2014 where he discusses a “4% Solution.” This idea is a roadmap for sustained 4% GDP growth through tax certainty, spending restraint, and energy deregulation. Again, this sounds a lot like Ronald Reagan’s supply-side ideas.

Hassett has been pushing this idea recently as he argues booming consumption under Trump policies signals “lower-income optimism,” contrasting with what he calls overstated Biden-era stagflation.

Here are some of Hassett’s key policy positions as summarized by Grok:

Now one other interesting data point on Kevin Hassett, which was pointed out by Opening Bell’s Phil Rosen, is that Hassett “is a former Coinbase advisor who still reportedly holds a sizable stake in the cryptocurrency exchange.”

So we have Trump fanning the flames of speculation. We have Kevin Hassett leaning into the supply-side economic policies. And we have market participants that are salivating over the idea of a new Fed Chairman who would bring interest rates down and drive more growth in asset prices.

It ain’t over until the fat lady sings. But I say bring on Mr. Hassett and let him bring some common sense back to the central bank.

Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Bitcoin Drops 40% — Should We Be Worried?

Anthony and John Pompliano break down the chaos inside today’s markets — from Bitcoin’s pullback to what’s really happening with the ETFs. We dig into why Vanguard suddenly capitulated, how a Trump-appointed Fed chair could reshape the entire macro landscape, and why political goggles are destroying people’s ability to think clearly about money.

Plus, we unpack Michael and Susan Dell’s massive $6.25 billion donation to jump-start investing accounts for 25 million American kids — and what it means for the next generation of wealth-building.

Enjoy!

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* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s Letter is brought to you by The Bitcoin Dolce Visa!

You can now access Italy’s Investor Visa with a €250K equity investment into Bitizenship Italia, a Milan-based Bitcoin startup. Visa approval arrives first, investment happens only after authorization. The company operates with a Bitcoin-aligned treasury, non-custodial L2 staking, and clear redemption windows every 24 months.

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To investors,

Professional investors care about their returns and they care about the correlation in their portfolio. The return measures how much money they are making, while correlations measure how much pain they could feel if a recession or financial panic sets in.

The former shows you upside and the latter illuminates potential downside.

This is important right now because we are living through a regime change in asset correlations. Remember, we saw all assets (stocks, bitcoin, gold, etc) go higher together in 2021, they all fell in unison in 2022, and these assets collectively recovered very aggressively in the last few years. Just like a hand in a glove, these assets ebbed and flowed with each other.

That is starting to change though. Take a look at the performance of various assets over the last 12 months:

* S&P 500: +12%

* Gold: +59%

* US Treasuries (TLT): -1.25%

* Bitcoin: -10%

There are a few major takeaways from these data points. First, US treasuries continue to be a money-losing proposition over the short and long-term. TLT is down more than 40% over the last 5 years and it is negative over the last 12 months too. Second, stocks and gold have done very well in light of the return to monetary easing and misplaced inflation fears. Add in the AI boom for the equity market and it has been a great year for anyone holding these assets.

In fact, Adam Kobeissi explains how strong the current stock market momentum is:

“The S&P 500 has finished positive for 7 consecutive months, the longest streak since 2018. Over this period, the S&P 500 has gained +23.9%. This is also in line with the rallies seen in 2009, 2013, and 2021. Meanwhile, the Dow has seen 7 straight monthly gains, the longest streak since early 2018. With December historically one of the strongest months for the market, upside momentum is strong. The bulls are in control.”

This brings us to bitcoin. The digital currency has been a big disappointment performance wise for many investors in 2025. The widely held belief was that bitcoin would continue the 4-year cycle, including a big blow off top in Q4. Instead, bitcoin is down double digits over the last year and to throw salt in the wound, bitcoin’s dismal performance has been against the backdrop of equities and gold doing so well.

Look at this chart from Justin Gallum. It shows that gold has continued to track M2 global liquidity, while bitcoin departed in the opposite direction sometime in Q3 of this year.

This brings us back to correlations. Investors want to add non-correlated assets into their portfolio so they can increase their risk-adjusted return and reduce the volatility of their investments without giving up potential returns.

The general thesis is that various assets have different demand drivers. For example:

* Stocks → driven by earnings & liquidity

* Gold → driven by real rates & currency strength

* Bitcoin → driven by liquidity, adoption, risk-on sentiment

* Farmland → driven by crop yields & climate

* Art → driven by collector demand

This is why you constantly hear financial advisors yell about diversified portfolios. They are playing a spreadsheet game that attempts to decrease risk without sacrificing returns. Of course, that is not what actually happens in the real world.

You actually have to increase risk and volatility in a portfolio to optimize for total returns. You quite literally should be getting paid for the risk you are taking. But that is not how all investors think. They instead will look at a comparison of these various assets and see that gold’s one year performance is high, the one year volatility is low, and both the one and five year Sharpe ratios are superior.

This is a dream for many investors. The question is whether the dream can continue or if nightmares are right around the corner. If you have been listening to me throughout the year, you probably know I am very optimistic about the next few years in financial markets.

Public equities are poised to continue moving higher. The AI boom is very real and likely only beginning. The fact that our politicians can’t stop spending money means that gold and bitcoin will continue doing well. And maybe the only asset I am bearish on for the next 2-3 years is US treasuries, which seem to be designed to go down forever in value.

Time will tell if I am right or not. But in the current moment, we are watching the breakdown of correlations. Assets are not moving in lock step like they were in recent years. This creates more opportunities for investors to create outperformance…or to underperform the market. Let’s hope each of you is on the right side of that outcome.

Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

What I Really Think About Bitcoin, Inflation and Economic Policy

Anthony and John Pompliano dig into whether markets have truly bottomed or if more pain is coming.

They break down the economy, inflation, rates, politics, and immigration — and how all of it is shaping investor psychology right now. Plus, they unpack Mike Green’s argument that America’s real poverty line may be closer to $140,000 than $31,000.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsor

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* Bitizenship – Get Italian Residency with €250k investment in Bitcoin Startup Italy , maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

* Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.

* easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.

* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

Today’s Letter is brought to you by The Bitcoin Dolce Visa!

You can now access Italy’s Investor Visa with a €250K equity investment into Bitizenship Italia, a Milan-based Bitcoin startup. Visa approval arrives first, investment happens only after authorization. The company operates with a Bitcoin-aligned treasury, non-custodial L2 staking, and clear redemption windows every 24 months.

To date, Bitizenship has facilitated €25M+ in Bitcoin-aligned residency investments.

A compliant, Bitcoin-native pathway into one of Europe’s strongest economies.

Private placements now open.1

To investors,

Yesterday Google became the fourth company in history to hit a $4 trillion market cap. They join Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft in this rare club of companies.

Nvidia became the first company ever to reach $4 trillion in July of this year, which was quickly followed by Microsoft crossing the same threshold in intraday trading on July 31st. The only problem is that Microsoft closed below $4 trillion that day and the company didn’t surpass the milestone again until last month, which is when they finally closed the trading day above the magic number of $4 trillion.

Apple followed closely behind and crossed the milestone in late October. This means we had never seen a single company reach a $4 trillion market cap, but all of a sudden we have four companies that pulled off the accomplishment in the last five months.

Welcome to the new world of business and finance.

The winners are worth more than you thought and the losers become irrelevant faster than you thought possible. So we must ask ourselves, what is driving the meteoric growth for these large tech companies?

There are a few drivers of valuation. First, these companies are producing insane amounts of revenue.

* Apple revenue: $416 billion (+6%)

* Google revenue: $385 billion +13%)

* Nvidia revenue: $130 billion (+114%)

* Microsoft revenue: $281 billion (+15%)

These numbers are ridiculous. Multi-trillion dollar companies growing double-digit percentages year-over-year and Nvidia more than doubling over the last 12 months.

But this is not only a story of top line revenue growth. These four companies are producing real free cash flow too.

* Apple FCF: $98 billion

* Google FCF: $73 billion

* Nvidia FCF: $60 billion

* Microsoft FCF: $78 billion

Investors look at a lot of data points to measure a company’s value, but nothing is more important than free cash flow and these companies are delivering on that metric.

This free cash flow is being used to do three big things: buyback shares, pay dividends, and make substantial CapEx investments in AI infrastructure. The first two uses of free cash flow are self-explanatory, but it is this third one that has everyone’s attention.

Google is projected to spend around $90 billion on CapEx this year and a significant portion will go to AI infrastructure for their cloud, search, and YouTube businesses. Microsoft is planning to spend around $80 billion with a big focus on AI-data centers and cloud infrastructure for training models, along with deploying AI and cloud applications.

Apple is taking a different approach. They plan to only spend $12.7 billion on CapEx, but majority of it is focused on first-party AI data center infrastructure and proprietary silicon. A big reason why Apple spends so much less on CapEx is their decision to use a hybrid model with third-party cloud providers for large compute demands.

And finally, Nvidia. They don’t spend CapEx on data centers or other traditional AI infrastructure. Instead, Nvidia is one of the big winners from all the CapEx spend by these large companies, because analysts believe Nvidia will capture 25-35% of the total $405 billion in AI-related infrastructure spending globally.

So this brings us back to the fact that four different companies have become $4 trillion companies in the last five months. That is only possible because of the large, addressable market of artificial intelligence. If you evaluate these companies through the rearview mirror of history, you may be worried about their future prospects. You will claim things are expensive or you will question the future durability of their demand.

But if you evaluate these companies as the winners of the largest addressable market of our lifetime, then you realize it is much more likely that each of these four companies are undervalued relative to their future financial performance. Take humanoid robots as a single example. Wall Street banks see the industry growing into a multi-trillion dollar juggernaut over the next 25 years, including a compound annual growth rate of 40-100% for the foreseeable future.

Companies are going to have to innovate on hardware and software to make those projections become a reality. This is noteworthy because humanoid robots are a net new industry. It didn’t previously exist, so that will be trillions of dollars in economic value up for grabs. And who do you think is going to capture some of it?

The largest, fastest-growing, most innovative companies in the world.

There will be plenty of startups that create brand new businesses, but one thing we have learned from the AI boom is that incumbents are very well positioned to benefit from this innovation period. And then there is the new US government support for the industry, which in turn is support for these large cap tech companies.

AI czar David Sacks tweeted yesterday “According to today’s WSJ, AI-related investment accounts for half of GDP growth. A reversal would risk recession. We can’t afford to go backwards.”

And then Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a television interview yesterday that the administration’s new Genesis Mission is “an all-in national effort to take the power of AI and pair it with the 40,000 outstanding scientists and engineers at our national labs.”

So you have a massive addressable market, tons of free cash flow, a government-driven tailwind, and monetary policy that is easing. What do you think is going to happen? You think stocks are going to enter a decade-long recession or bear market? Give me a break.

The era of $4 trillion companies is here. Eventually we will have $10 trillion companies. No one is going to stop the inevitable.

Have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Matthew Siegel on Crypto Equities and Whether It Is Time To Buy Bitcoin Now

Matthew Siegel is the Portfolio Manager of the VanEck Onchain Economy ETF ($NODE), one of the most forward-thinking institutional products in the crypto ecosystem.

In this episode, we break down how major institutions are evaluating Bitcoin — from market structure and sentiment to what’s driving recent price action. Matthew shares the three indicators he uses to gauge Bitcoin’s direction, how he thinks about buying during volatility, and what he’s watching in crypto-linked public equities. We also dig into the broader digital-asset landscape — from smart-contract platforms to stablecoins and where he sees the strongest long-term opportunities.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsor

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* Bitizenship – Get Italian Residency with €250k investment in Bitcoin Startup Italy , maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

* Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.

* easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.

* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

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To investors,

The Federal Reserve and the Board of Governors have a history of debating policy decisions behind closed doors, yet they almost always put on a united front when it comes time for their periodic vote on monetary policy. That is why it was such a big deal when two Fed Governors dissented at the same time back in July of this year.

Not one, but two Governors dissenting in the same meeting. We had not seen two Fed Governors dissent in the same meeting since 1993, so the rarity of the situation raised eyebrows. At the time, most people wrote off the anomaly as a politically driven outcome. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell doesn’t seem to be a fan of Donald Trump and the two Fed Governors who dissented were Trump nominees.

The Fed is supposed to be independent, but if you believe that I have a bridge to sell you. The institution is made up of humans. Humans are biased. That bias doesn’t have to surface in a malicious or nefarious way, but every human is affected by their personal beliefs. That is how human nature works. No one, not even a central bank, is safe from it.

But now we are getting information that those two Governor dissents in July may have been the warning sign of things to come. Bloomberg’s Catarina Saraiva published an article over the weekend titled Fed Watchers Turn to Vote Counting as December Rate Drama Grows. In the article, Catarina writes:

“Division at the Federal Reserve has intensified in recent weeks, with officials staking out disparate positions ahead of the central bank’s December policy meeting — all while Chair Jerome Powell stays silent.

The drama was amped up Friday when New York Fed President John Williams, sometimes seen as a proxy for the Fed chief, signaled his support for a rate cut after several other policymakers came out leaning against one.

Powell himself hasn’t spoken publicly since the central bank’s last rate decision on Oct. 29. But a tally of recent remarks suggests the other voting members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee are now nearly evenly split over what to do, all but ensuring some will vote against the Dec. 10 decision regardless of the outcome.”

These dissents are a big deal because they show cracks in the central banks’ armor. You can think of the constant dissents, especially from Fed Governors, as a very negative signal. There is no consensus. There is no peace. These dissents also highlight how difficult and complex the current economic environment is.

The recent disagreements are even more pronounced because Chairman Powell has done a good job driving consensus during his tenure, but that is all changing now.

This situation reminds me of the book Lords of Easy Money, which is the best break down of the Federal Reserve’s actions during the Global Financial Crisis.

The book is important because it lays out what many people are afraid to say in public: the Federal Reserve may have done more harm than good to the US economy in the last 20 years.

The book’s description states:

“If you asked most people what forces led to today’s unprecedented income inequality and financial crashes, no one would say the Federal Reserve. For most of its history, the Fed has enjoyed the fawning adoration of the press. When the economy grew, it was credited to the Fed. When the economy imploded in 2008, the Fed got credit for rescuing us.But here, for the first time, is the inside story of how the Fed has reshaped the American economy for the worse…The Lords of Easy Money skillfully tells the fascinating tale of how quantitative easing is imperiling the American economy through the story of the one man who tried to warn us.”

That one man was Thomas Hoenig and he looks very smart in hindsight. So what did Hoenig do? His legacy is explained with the following:

“In the aftermath of the 2007 recession, Hoenig was thrust upon a national stage as he spoke out frequently about the financial crisis and its causes, as well as the response to the crisis in terms of both regulatory changes and monetary policy. He cast the lone dissenting vote against the FOMC’s easy money policies at each of the eight FOMC meetings in 2010 and was troubled by the FOMC’s stated promise of keeping the federal fund rates at a historic low for “an extended period.”

He also spoke out frequently about the large and systemically critical financial firms known as “too big to fail,” whose carelessness and mismanagement, he said, were a major cause of the crisis.”

With the benefit of hindsight, it is hard to argue that Hoenig was wrong. My guess is other people in the room disagreed with the decisions being made, but they chose loyalty to the Fed institution over loyalty to the American people. Today it looks like there are fewer Federal Reserve officials willing to make that mistake again.

If the Fed held their monetary policy vote today, instead of on December 10th, Jim Bianco believes the current split would be 7-5 in favor of another interest rate cut. That belief is supported by the approximately 63% odds being assigned by the market to a December rate cut.

Even Polymarket has the odds of a 25 basis point rate cut in December at 95% right now.

But this rate cut decision is not going to happen for another four weeks. The vote won’t happen today. We have to wait until December 10th. That is a long time in financial markets. Data can change. Sentiment can change. And opinions can change. So you can’t rely on today’s information for a guaranteed outcome.

However, one thing that has been changing is the financial environment for the average American. They are in pain and want relief as fast as possible. Maybe a rate cut would help in some cases, but it may also create more pain in other cases.

MSNBC’s Kristen Welker asked Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent yesterday “how long do Americans need to be patient? How long do they have to wait for the cost of living to come down?”

Bessent responded with his views on the “three I’s.” He said:

“I talked about the three I’s that were killing Americans: immigration, interest rates and inflation. The president’s closed the border, and the mass immigration is gone. And that was putting – a lot of the immigration was putting upward pressure on housing, downward pressure on wages. Interest rates are down… So across the board, prices are starting to come down. We’re having Thanksgiving week. This will be the lowest cost for a Thanksgiving dinner in four years. Turkey prices are down 16%.”

This is ultimately the challenge of managing an economy. The Federal Reserve is slowly bringing down interest rates, while the Treasury Secretary and the Trump administration’s economic policy advisors are trying to address affordability on a national stage.

You can think of the Fed trying to pull the short-term lever and the rest of the government trying to pull long-term levers. It isn’t a perfect analogy, but it is closer to reality than people think.

There will never be perfect solutions to these problems. The global economy is a complex machine. No one can agree on what the data says, let alone how various decisions will impact the economy. Politics, monetary policy, and economic decisions are all intertwined now. And all eyes are on the Fed’s December rate cut decision.

My guess is the central bank will cut another 25 basis points. I don’t necessarily agree with that decision. My preference all year has been for a 50 basis point cut so we can quickly get to a sub-3% number for the cost of capital. That should provide relief for the average family, incentivize investment in R&D, and generally increase GDP to even more impressive levels of growth.

I don’t think there is any chance of us getting a 50 basis point cut, especially because the Fed is flying blind without some of the BLS data from recent months. So they will chicken out and continue slowly bringing down the Fed funds rate. But if they don’t cut interest rates for some reason, there will be chaos on Wall Street and markets will fall. The crowd knows we need cheaper capital, so the Fed is expected to deliver.

And market chaos is not something Jerome Powell and the Fed are willing to risk.

Hope you all have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Bitcoin Fear Hits All-Time High — What Happens Now?

Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and produces deep-dive investing videos on YouTube.

In this episode, we unpack the latest market pullback — why prices are dropping, why investor fear has spiked, and whether this is the start of a bear market or simply a healthy correction.

We also break down asset performance, where Jordi sees opportunity, and the signals that could mark a reversal — plus a quick look at Bitcoin’s volatility and what it means for long-term investors.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsor

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To investors,

Baron Rothschild once said “the time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.” And we saw nothing but blood yesterday across financial markets. The S&P was down 1.5%, Nasdaq fell almost 2.5%, and bitcoin was down about 5% over the last 24 hours.

Those are big numbers for these assets to fall in a single trading period. Interestingly, the S&P 500 actually displayed some very rare price action yesterday. The Market Stats writes “S&P gapped up more than +1.5% today, then closed down more than -1.5%. Before today, this only happened in October 2008 and April 2025.”

As I recently heard Chris Burniske say, this roller coaster goes both ways. And the index showed us that yesterday, but now we are left to wonder why we are experiencing such abnormal volatility?

Alex Kruger explains that we had “Extreme price action [yesterday], equities selling off on extraordinary volume and no news. VIX up to 28.”

You don’t see that often. No specific catalyst, especially not an obvious, catastrophic one, yet stocks are falling materially in a single day. But this volatility makes sense when you realize the Fear and Greed Index was sitting at 6 last night. I don’t know if I have ever seen the index that low.

Investors are scared. That is easy to recognize. But what are they scared of? That is a much harder question to answer. Is it the weak labor market data? Could it be the worries about AI CAPEX spending? Or maybe it is the belief that inflation is higher and the Fed won’t cut in December?

No one knows. None of those things strike me as a reason for the S&P to drop 1.5% in a day and the Nasdaq to lose 2.5% in the same timeframe.

But here is the thing, regardless of whether we have a specific reason, Rothschild told us to buy when blood in the streets. So how exactly do you do it?

Famed investor Howard Marks explained his philosophy in a 2018 interview at Wharton:

“My vision is that when the stuff hits the fan and there’s blood in the streets most people…say well we’re not going to buy until the knife stops falling, until the dust settles, until all the uncertainty has been resolved. But the trouble is that once that happens then the price will have rebounded.

So we want to buy at a time of upset and while the knife is still falling and I think the refusal to catch a falling knife is a rationalization for inaction. It’s our job to catch falling knives, That’s how you get bargains. But you have to do it carefully.”

Most people try to avoid catching the falling knife, but Howard Marks realizes that is not possible. This is the type of alpha you get from someone who has built one of the best investing careers in history. Straight contrarian takes that create billions of dollars in profit.

You have to realize that Marks and Oaktree were always willing to buy assets on the way down, keep dollar-cost averaging lower, and then continue buying on the other side of the recovery. This type of conviction during a moment of chaos can only be built through strong analysis that highlights how undervalued an asset is. Most people aren’t built to be greedy when others are fearful.

So where do we go from here?

The short answer is that no one knows. Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick pointed out earlier this week that the stock market very rarely peaks in the month of October, so history would suggest the bull market is not over yet. If the historical trend was wrong, this would only be the 7th time since 1950 that the market peaked in the month of October.

Never say never though. Just when you think you have financial markets figured out, something will happen to make you question everything again. That is the beauty of investing. It is an intellectually stimulating game because the puzzle never ends.

Now before I let you go, I am going to leave you with two charts from Ryan Detrick that will leave you a little more optimistic. The first is that the performance of the stock market on Thursdays has recently been horrible, so yesterday’s big drop is less surprising when you realize the intra-week cyclicality at play.

In addition, Detrick points out “November historically bottoms on November 20th before the seasonal late month rally. What is more interesting is one the weaker parts of the year is Nov 18-20. Looks to have played out this year, now will the rally?”

So yesterday was a blood bath in markets. The seasonality data suggests we could have the worst behind us. But no one can predict the future, so we are all going to find out together where the roller coaster wants to take us next.

Hope you all have a great end to your week. I’ll talk to everyone on Monday.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Jeff Park on Bitcoin’s Recent Price Drawdown

Jeff Park is the Partner and Chief Investment Officer at ProCap BTC. In this conversation, we break down why bitcoin’s price has been slipping and whether the market is actually signaling the start of a bear trend.

Jeff explains the key forces driving sentiment — from liquidity pressures to global macro shifts — and why a slightly negative year for bitcoin might not be as bearish as it sounds.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsor

* Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp

* Bitizenship – Get Italian Residency with €250k investment in Bitcoin Startup Italy , maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

* Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.

* easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/

* Zkverify - A modular blockchain dedicated to efficiently verifying zk proofs across diverse blockchain stacks.

* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

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To investors,

Bitcoin has crashed approximately 30% from the all-time high of $126,000 on October 6th. The digital currency is now negative on the year and up less than 1% over the last 12 months. As you would expect, bitcoin holders are very disappointed in the asset’s performance.

Sentiment online is about as negative as I can remember it ever being. But ancedotes on the internet can be misleading. Reddit or X can be echo chambers. So what exactly is the data telling us?

Here are five charts that explain what is happening.

First, Zerohedge shows that “the last time bitcoin was here, global liquidity was $7 trillion lower.”

That data point is a big narrative violation. Everyone, including me, expected bitcoin to close the gap between bitcoin’s price and global liquidity. Since that hasn’t happened, many people are wondering if the market has fundamentally changed now that Wall Street has started adopting the asset.

Regardless of the reason, no one can dispute that bitcoin has corrected 30% in the last month and a half. James van Straten explains this is the “third 30% correction for Bitcoin this cycle. Each correction, the time from peak to trough has compressed, this has accelerated the max fear sentiment.

* August 2024 (Yen Carry): 147 days

* April 2025: (Tariffs) 77 days

* November 2025: 42 days”

And this correction has now hit oversold territory. Coin Bureau shows “Bitcoin’s daily RSI has dropped to 26, its lowest since February, putting Bitcoin in oversold territory.”

Quinten Francois highlights a similar dynamic is playing out with short-term holder supply in profit or loss. We are seeing more than 95% of all coins that have been acquired in the last 155 days are now underwater.

This is obviously a fast way to drive fear into a market and tank sentiment. But markets don’t bleed forever. Eventually an asset gets cheap enough where it becomes attractive to investors. Maybe that is bitcoin at $90,000 per coin or maybe it is lower. I don’t know the exact level where we see the persistent bid return.

However, Bitwise’s André Dragosch says bitcoin whales, those with more than 1,000 bitcoin, have suddenly started buying bitcoin aggressively at the current price level.

So we have bitcoin’s price crashing even though global liquidity is surging higher. We have an asset that is now deeply oversold, which is enticing the bitcoin whales to start buying again. And we have a Fear and Greed index that is still registering below 20.

This is the volatility, chaos, and uncertainty that forged bitcoiners over the years. Those who can keep their head straight when everyone else is losing their mind have traditionally done well. It is much easier said than done though.

Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Bitcoin Market Just ROTATED This Month - Here’s What’s Next

Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos.

In this conversation, we break down the recent sell-off in asset prices, including why the absence of a clear catalyst matters, how it may change the way you think about your portfolio, and where Jordi believes capital could rotate over the next 12–16 months.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

* Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.

* easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.

* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/

* Zkverify - A modular blockchain dedicated to efficiently verifying zk proofs across diverse blockchain stacks.

* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this formand someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe