The Pomp Letter

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To investors,

The finance industry runs on economic data. Investors around the world consume various data points, draw conclusions from the data, and make capital allocation decisions based on that data.

But what if the data being consumed by investors is inaccurate? What if the data is politically biased?

It would essentially guarantee misguided investment decisions are being made.

Bad inputs lead to bad outputs. You can’t make good decisions if you are basing those decisions on inaccurate or biased data.

This brings us to a bombshell discovery of provably false and politically biased data by Fundstrat and Tom Lee. In a recent report to clients, Fundstrat pointed out how the University of Michigan consumer survey has become completely unreliable due to a sharp rise in political bias.

Before I cover that bias and inaccuracy, let me explain the University of Michigan survey. The survey is described as “a monthly survey that measures American consumers’ attitudes toward the economy, personal finances, and their readiness to spend. Considered a leading economic indicator, the survey, which has been conducted since 1946, uses a minimum of 500 phone interviews and provides insights into consumer optimism or pessimism. The results are used to predict economic trends, including consumer spending and the overall health of the economy.”

Now lets go back to the political bias and inaccuracies. We have known for awhile there are differences in political affiliations when it comes to inflation expectations. Fundstrat shows that here:

Democrats expect inflation to be 5.3% a year from now, while Republicans believe it will be 1.5%. Of course, the truth is likely somewhere in-between. But this political difference is not a problem because it is clear, transparent, and easily understood. You can summarize the difference as politics breaking the economic brains of those being surveyed.

Is it dumb? Of course. Would I accuse the University of Michigan of tipping the scales in any way? No, not at all.

But Fundstrat takes their analysis a step further. They show that the University of Michigan survey has been corrupted over the last two years. They used to survey Republicans and Democrats on a 50/50 basis for years, but there was an explicit change in early 2024.

The University of Michigan survey has shifted left on the political aisle. Rather than 50/50 survey pool, the surveyed group is now 65% Democrats and the trend is only getting worse. You can see in the chart how absurd the change has been.

So what is the big deal?

If I am being nice, the University of Michigan has suddenly screwed up their data collection methodologies. Frankly, I find that hard to believe given how well they stayed unbiased for years. If I put on my conspiratorial hat, we need to ask why University of Michigan is manipulating the data and putting their fingers on the scale?

I will leave it to each of you to decide whether you think the data issues are intentional or not.

And to provide the most robust analysis possible, here is a 4-minute clip of Tom Lee talking with me about this ridiculous issue:

The economic data is corrupted. It is politicaly biased. If you are counting on that data to make investment decisions, it is going to be very hard to make good investment decisions moving forward.

I am looking at ways to address this issue for myself and our investing activities. As I find solutions, I will share them with all of you.

Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Gold Is Winning But Bitcoin Will Win Bigger

Anthony and John Pompliano discuss everything happening across the markets — bitcoin, gold, stocks, the Fed, and where things could be headed next.

Are we going up or down? Should investors be worried or getting excited? And why retail investors might actually have an edge over institutions right now.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

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* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

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* easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.

* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.

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🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

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To Investors,

Peter Lynch is one of the greatest investors to ever live. While at Fidelity Investments, he averaged a 29% return and managed the best performing mutual fund in the world. So it is noteworthy that one of his most famous quotes is “if you spend 13 minutes a year on economics, you have wasted 10 minutes.”

Pretty good one-liner, right?

The reason Lynch believed macro economics was noise is because he managed money during a time where everyone was constantly worried about monetary policy, geopolitics, and various topics outside financial markets. His strategy was simply to buy shares in great companies and wait for the companies to increase in value.

It wasn’t rocket science.

But here is the thing, the stock market has significantly changed over the last 50 years. We went from a market where ignoring macro economics increased your likelihood of success to the modern market where paying attention to macro economics is all that matters.

Let me give you an example.

Former Pimco CEO Mohammed El-Erian wrote yesterday “Forgive me for sounding like a broken record, but today’s market action is so illustrative of something I’ve been trying to convey for a while now.

The notable thing about gold today isn’t just that its price hit yet another record high, but how it has done so: Gold is surging on the same day that US stock indices have over 1%. This simultaneous climb in both a classic safe haven and risk assets is a powerful illustration that the drivers of the current gold rally are different from historical patterns.”

Safe haven assets and risk assets are both pushing higher at the same time. That isn’t supposed to happen. It violates everything an investor was taught in their Economics 101 class. So what is going on here?

Holger Zschaepitz explains the different sides of the debate:

“Despite the Nasdaq 100 hitting a new all-time high, market sentiment remains unusually split, a divide also reflected in Bitcoin’s wild swings.

Goldman Sachs sees two ways to read this: Cynics view it as a fragile equilibrium, where even a small shock could end the rally. Optimists see it as the hallmark of a healthy bull market – one that keeps climbing the proverbial wall of worry.”

So who is right? Should we be worried about the concurrent rise of risk assets and safe haven assets? Well, let’s turn back to Peter Lynch.

He once said “I’ve studied the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, and I don’t see anywhere that we have to have a recession every four years. I don’t see why you can’t have a decent environment for years and years.”

Spoken like a true optimist if you ask me.

My personal opinion on why all asset prices are going higher boils down to the macro environment. Markets are forward-looking and everyone has become convinced that the government won’t stop printing money, the national debt is going to continue accelerating higher, the Federal Reserve and central banks around the world have to cut interest rates in the coming months, and artificial intelligence is making companies more profitable with less employees.

Those four factors are causing investors to pour capital into almost all asset classes. They understand holding cash and bonds will likely be a losing trade. You can buy stocks, bitcoin, gold, real estate, or collectibles. The micro decisions are not nearly as important as the big decision to convert fiat dollars into some kind of investment asset.

People are not going to wait around for the currency debasement and persistently high inflation to wreck their portfolio. They are positioning themselves to benefit from the pain on the horizon.

Add in the fact that we are sitting in the middle of October, which means the year end chase is underway, and it becomes obvious that the bull market is not ending this month.

Risk assets and safe haven assets are going to continue performing. In this environment, some investors want to play offense and some want to play defense. But the number of market participants has expanded so rapidly that now there is enough capital for both types of assets to appreciate as money sloshes around the system.

Price appreciation won’t be a straight line to the sky. There will be corrections along the way. But as Peter Lynch advised us, “in the stock market, the most important organ is the stomach. It’s not the brain.”

So keep your head on a swivel and understand the macro environment went from something you could ignore in the past to potentially the only thing that matters today.

Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

This Executive Thinks Bitcoin Will Hit $180,000 By Year End

Chris Klein is the Co-Founder & CEO of Bitcoin IRA (https://bitcoinira.com/pomp/).

In this conversation, we discuss how retirement investing is changing in the digital era, what people are actually doing inside their retirement accounts, and how the wealthy use these tools to grow their wealth faster. We also dive into broader topics like patriotism in America, macro trends, and the roles of gold, silver, stocks, and Bitcoin in today’s economy.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin or SOL. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.

* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

* Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.

* easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.

* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.

* Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

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To investors,

All eyes are on gold and bitcoin as capital allocators try to figure out what is happening in the world. The narrative coming into 2025 was gold is a great asset, but it does a better job preventing losses in your portfolio than it does driving outperformance. This is where bitcoin came in.

The decentralized asset was pitched as a digital gold, or as I have previously called it “gold with wings.” The idea has been that bitcoin boasts the same sound money principles as the precious metal, but bitcoin’s unique properties (including the finite supply, the bitcoin halving feature, and the relatively young life since inception) should ensure bitcoin would continue outperforming gold.

That hasn’t happened in 2025 though.

In fact, gold has appreciated about 60% year-to-date, which is the best performance in nearly a half century. Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello highlights “gold is now the best performing major asset class over the last 20 years with an annualized return of over 11%.”

This performance, particularly the last 11 months, has driven central bank’s allocation to gold significantly higher. Charlie writes “gold now accounts for over 20% of global central bank reserves, the highest share we’ve seen in nearly three decades.”

This central bank demand is important because it overcame the fact that US retail investors have essentially been net sellers of gold and silver since the big rally in price started in March 2024.

But here is the part of the story that is confusing many investors — bitcoin and gold have historically traded in tight correlation. When gold has gone up, bitcoin has followed approximately 100 days later.

These two assets benefit from the same tailwinds of higher national debts, undisciplined monetary policy, and geopolitical uncertainty. In response to these issues, investors prefer to allocate larger percentages of their portfolio to sound money assets. Assets that are outside the legacy system and assets that no one can create more of.

So why is gold responding to the recent global developments, but bitcoin has lagged? Is it as simple as central banks have a lot of money, so they are driving gold to outperform because these large pools of capital are not allocating to bitcoin yet?

Sure, that is part of it. But there is something more nuanced at play here. Most people are too focused on gold’s outperformance and forgetting to check bitcoin’s relative underperformance.

Joe Carlasare shows the current bitcoin bull market has significantly underperformed past bitcoin bull markets. We haven’t seen the breathtaking price appreciation we have come to expect, which means the market has been void of the blow-off tops driven by the retail frenzy.

If you have been buying bitcoin for speculative purposes, especially if the most attractive quality was it’s perceived asymmetry, you are very disappointed right now. I wouldn’t blame you. Bitcoin has not delivered on that promise so far in this cycle.

But if you were buying bitcoin as a defensive asset to protect your purchasing power from currency debasement and out of control inflation, then you likely have been good with the results. Bitcoin is up about 1,500% since January 2020 and the asset has appreciated more than 18% in 2025.

The asymmetry of bitcoin came from the high degree of risk an investor was taking when they bought the asset. You get paid for the risk you take. But bitcoin is not risky anymore. It is very obvious that bitcoin is not going away, the government is not going to outlaw it, and bitcoin will eventually seep into every sophisticated investors portfolio.

So you should expect bitcoin’s return to come down from past bull markets. This doesn’t make bitcoin unattractive at all. Instead, it means bitcoin’s rise is essentially pre-ordained at this point. It will take time, but bitcoin is going to win on a global stage as one of the top store of value assets. Gold will do well alongside bitcoin. These two assets are not in competition with each other, but rather they serve as brothers in the fight against currency debasement.

Coexistence is a good thing for both assets.

But in the short-term, we may have hit a turning point this weekend. We are most likely to see a large rotation from the gold trade into bitcoin through the end of the year. Joao Wedson writes:

“Bottom signals in the BTC/Gold ratio are extremely rare, and they tend to appear during high-volatility moments and sharp BTC drawdowns. Well, we’re exactly there right now.

The blue signal marks the current bottom, revealed by a normalized oscillator that’s basically screaming: “time to sell gold and buy Bitcoin.” The green signal, on the other hand, is even stronger. It shows up when both metrics align at their lows, and historically those moments have been the best BTC/Gold opportunities ever recorded.

My message goes out to institutional gold accumulators: if I were you, I’d take a close look at this chart. The risk-reward profile of Bitcoin looks far more attractive right now, especially considering the current gold euphoria.

Use this chart however you want. But mark this moment — it could be remembered as the turning point between Gold and BTC.”

So there you have it — gold has done very well in 2025, but past performance is not indicative of future performance. We may be on the doorsteps of the great rotation from gold to bitcoin. If that theory comes true, bitcoin will likely have a fireworks ending to the year.

Hope everyone has a great start to their week. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Bitcoin Crashed - Here Is Why Jordi Visser Is Still Buying

Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos.

In this conversation, we discuss the banking crisis, credit contraction, and what’s driving fear in today’s markets, Jordi shares what he’s buying, whether he’s worried about a broader slowdown, and we also touch on OpenAI’s breakthroughs, new AI models, and whether “the aliens are real.”

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin or SOL. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.

* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

* Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.

* easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.

* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.

* Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

The housing market is widely seen as a key input for what happens in the US economy and how the Federal Reserve decides monetary policy. I asked one of my favorite X accounts to put together a guest post on the current housing situation. This person, who wishes to remain anonymous, has an X account you can follow.

The beauty of anonymity is the reader is left to judge the merits of what is written, rather than assign value based on who the writer is. This guest post should help you better understand what is happening with yields and housing. I hope it is valuable to you.

Here is Housing’s Next Act.

The U.S. economy has shifted from late cycle wobble to clear deterioration. Job growth is fading, openings have drained toward pre-pandemic levels, and the latest ADP print turned negative. Household balance sheets are fraying where credit card and auto delinquencies are climbing toward Great Financial Crisis highs, student loan stress has re-emerged, and office vacancies are at records.

In the market’s plumbing, strain is no longer subtle. SOFR has traded above the Fed’s interest on reserves, a sign dollars are scarcer at the margin while bank reserves have slipped below the $3T line once called ample. Regional bank shares are sliding again, and the Treasury curve has broken lower from the front end through the belly. None of this is random; it mirrors past moments when policy stopped transmitting and the system began hoarding liquidity.

What the 2-year is signaling

The 2 year yield is the market’s blunt gauge of upcoming Fed moves. Over the past quarter, it’s dropped from roughly 4% to near 3.4%, its lowest since 2022. That slide is the curve’s way of saying the Fed will keep easing not because inflation is conquered, but because credit is tightening on its own. The pattern is familiar. In 2001, the 2 year led a 500bp cutting cycle; in 2007–08, it ran ahead of the sprint from 5.25% to zero; in 2020, it collapsed before the Fed finished cutting. When the front end leads down like this, policy usually follows.

Why the 10-year matters more for households

The 10 year is the economy’s anchor. It sets the base rate for nearly every long term loan and reflects what markets believe about growth and inflation years ahead. Most homeowners don’t keep a mortgage for 30 years; they move or refinance every 7–10. Investors price that risk off the 10 year plus a spread for prepayment and liquidity risk. In calm markets that spread is about 1.7–2 points; when volatility rises or balance sheet space tightens, it widens toward 2.5–3.

The 10 year has fallen alongside the 2 year from the mid 4s in July to just under 4%. That move signals cooling growth expectations and rising demand for safety. Yet the average 30 year mortgage remains in the mid 6s, implying a wide spread consistent with stressed liquidity. The Treasury rally is a warning. The market is bracing for a scenario where the Fed must inject reserves faster than planned.

How the slowdown is showing up in housing

Housing entered this phase with poor affordability, uneven regional strength, and a heavy builder footprint. As in 2006, volumes cracked before prices. Sunbelt and Mountain West metros with heavy new construction cooled first in both sales and rents. Tighter, older stock markets in the Northeast and Midwest are now following.

Builder margins have compressed sharply from peak highs. Sunbelt apartment rents are falling. Active listings are climbing across the West. Builders still make up an unusually large share of supply, an aftereffect of pandemic lock in that kept resale inventory tight but now amplifies competition where new supply clusters.

The biggest misconception is that Fed cuts fix affordability overnight. They don’t. When easing comes after the break, mortgage rates fall slower than fed funds because the 10 year sets the anchor and spreads stay wide until liquidity normalizes. The curve is sending that same message now.

How fast the Fed can cut and how far mortgages can fall

Once unemployment rises, the Fed pivots from “inflation first” to “stability first.” From 2007 to 2008, the funds rate fell 525 bps in 15 months. In 2001, 475 in a year. In 2020, 150 in two weeks. From today’s 4.25–4.50% range, a sharper downturn base case points to another 150–200 bps of easing over six months, some at meetings, some possibly between. In a severe-stress path with thinning reserves and fragile regional banks, 300–400 bps within nine months would still fit precedent.

Mortgages won’t mirror those cuts. If safe haven demand pulls the 10 year to 3.0–3.25% over the next year, consistent with past recessions and spreads stay wide near 2.3 points while QT continues, the average 30 year settles between 5.2% and 5.9%. A 4 handle requires a second act with the Fed halting QT and supporting MBS liquidity, or volatility collapsing on its own. With spreads near 1.8 points and a 3% 10 year, mortgage rates could print around 4.8–4.9%. That usually takes quarters, not weeks.

Prices follow volumes with a lag

Demand fades before sellers adjust. Then inventory builds, listings sit longer, and prices follow. A 5–10% national decline over the next year is a reasonable base case if unemployment climbs, with deeper drops in supply elastic, investor heavy markets in the South and Mountain West. Tighter Northeast and Midwest markets may hold up better, but falling rents and slower hiring will still pressure them.

The refinancing wall and policy constraints

Through 2026, the U.S. must refinance roughly $9–12T in Treasury debt and $2T in commercial loans, with a heavy 2026 bulge. That narrows the Fed’s room to maneuver. Ending QT, favoring shorter term bill issuance, and expanding repo operations can ease funding stress, but those steps alone won’t bring mortgage rates sharply lower. To narrow mortgage Treasury spreads, the Fed would need calmer volatility or renewed MBS support, as in 2009 and 2020. Until then, investors will demand extra yield for prepayment and credit uncertainty as unemployment rises.

Bottom line

The Fed will likely cut sharply, pulling mortgage rates from the mid 5s toward the high 4s. Housing will feel it last after liquidity shifts and unemployment rises. If jobs hold, lower rates bring opportunity and better prices; if not, the downturn deepens, patience wins, and timing becomes everything.

The writer of this guest post wishes to remain anonymous, but they have an X account you can follow. I believe it is one of the best X accounts to follow for macro economics.

Hope you have a great end to your week. I’ll talk to everyone on Monday.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Bitcoin’s $10,000 Candles Are Coming - Get Ready

Anthony & John Pompliano discuss what’s going on with bitcoin, stocks, market bubble talk, why the pessimists are wrong, what the future of predication markets look like, and why JPMorgan and Anduril are investing back into America.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin or SOL. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.

* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

* Uphold - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.

* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.

* Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

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To investors,

There is a vibe shift underway in America. Entrepreneurs and investors are stepping up to the plate to help solve some of our most critical problems. They are pouring trillions of dollars into various industries with one macro goal: ensure the United States continues to lead on the global stage.

We saw two major announcements yesterday that further solidify the vibe shift.

First, Jamie Dimon and JP Morgan committed to investing $1.5 trillion into 27 different industries they deem critical to the success of the country. These investments will happen over a 10 year timeframe and the industries include supply chain, defense, aerospace, energy, manufacturing, and frontier technologies.

One goal is to increase energy independence and resilience, which can be done by investing in everything from the grid to battery storage. Another goal is to accelerate America’s position in disruptive technologies like AI, cybersecurity, and quantum.

Obviously these are notable goals and critical industries, but just how will the financial institution deploy this money? They say it will be through direct equity and venture capital investments.

That is exactly how it should be done in my opinion. Capitalism works because of the economic incentive for various market participants to come together and solve a problem. Jamie Dimon was quoted as saying “we’ve always worked with the government. That’s always been true my whole life, my own career. This is not philanthropy. This is 100% commercial.”

It is hard to argue with that logic. There is a supply/demand imbalance in these critical industries, so the people who step up and provide solutions will be economically rewarded.

The second example we got yesterday of the vibe shift came from Anduril, the leading next-generation defense company. They announced EagleEye, a new family of warfighter augmentations that place mission command & AI directly into the warfighter’s helmet.

This is something right out of science fiction.

Imagine a world where our ground troops have the capabilities of a computer, including computer vision, artificial intelligence, and machine learning, embedded into their helmets and the outputs available via a digital screen in their eyewear.

This is going to become a reality in the near future. The only conclusion I can come to is America’s military is about to become more lethal and more effective.

In a world where peace is obtained through strength, as we just saw with the peace deal in the Middle East, it is good for American citizens to have the most capable military possible.

When you combine the massive investments from JP Morgan and the technology advancements of Anduril, you can easily see what is happening in our country.

Risk-takers are investing time, energy, and money towards solving difficult problems. The right people have stoped complaining and they are now focused on competing globally. We have to win in AI, energy, defense, manufacturing, quantum, and every other industrial or frontier technology.

It is good for investors. It is good for businesses. And it is good for our country.

Game on!

Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Is Bitcoin The Only Safe Haven Now?

Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos.

In this conversation, we discuss whether there’s a bubble forming and where Jordi stands — bullish or bearish, we dive into the AI trade, the supply and demand imbalance driving energy and infrastructure, the growing “debasement trade” as institutions allocate to Bitcoin and gold, we explore capitalism vs. socialism, humanoid robots, and the macro forces shaping the markets today.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin or SOL. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.

* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

* Uphold - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.

* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.

* Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

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To investors,

Financial markets went into panic mode on Friday and asset prices fell aggressively. The sell-off started about mid-day, but was accelerated Friday afternoon when President Trump posted on social media saying he was going to implement a new 100% tariff on China.

As if investors already have amnesia from April’s tariff scare, people raced to dump whatever assets they were holding. The stock market had just closed, so the main impact there was in after hours trading.

But bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets never close. We saw those assets sell off in one of the most rapid and severe price drops that I can remember in the last decade.

For example, bitcoin fell from around $121,000 to about $108,000 in mere minutes. It was one of the rare $10,000+ daily candles that bitcoiners have always dreamed of, but unfortunately it was in the wrong direction.

Now before I explain why the sell-off is a positive development, you should know this market correction was not a complete surprise. I sat down with my friend Jordi Visser at 10am Eastern Time on Friday to record our weekly conversation. During that talk, Jordi explicitly called out the likelihood of a market correction in the near term. He described himself as medium-term and long-term bullish, but short-term he was much more cautious.

Take a listen to why Jordi was worried:

Hours later the correction began and it only accelerated throughout the day. Honestly, one of the most prescient takes someone has shared on the podcast since we began. Impressive to say the least.

But the good news is that the bear market of October 2025 is officially over already. Why? President Trump took to social media on Sunday night and reassured everyone “it will all be fine” and “the USA wants to help China, not hurt it!”

That reassurance is all the market needed. We saw stock futures open green last night and bitcoin surged back over $115,000 per coin.

So what are my takeaways from this debacle over the last few days?

First, if you sell bitcoin amid geopolitical uncertainty, you never understood what you owned. The decentralized, digital currency was built to give someone a place to save their hard-earned economic value without relying on a nation state to back it. That is not only a powerful idea, but it is an idea that should gain value as geopolitical uncertainty continues to increase in the coming years.

Second, if bitcoin can fall $15,000 per coin in a day, that likely means in the future it could also go up $15,000 per coin in a day. Study reflexivity. It would take an extraordinary announcement or development for this to happen, but the market is showing us what is possible.

Third, if you were bullish on bitcoin and stocks three days ago, you should be even more bullish now. None of the fundamentals changed in the last 72 hours. We simply got a healthy reset that wiped out the excess leverage in the system. Now the market is cleared to go higher.

Fourth, imagine telling someone 10 years ago this headline: “The $19+ billion crypto liquidation, which is the largest in history, dropped Bitcoin’s price to $108,000.” We dreamed for days like this. We are going so much higher over time.

So regardless of how you view Friday’s events, I don’t think investors are going to care or remember them in a week. This is how markets operate now. They move at lightning speed. Investors have amnesia. Everything is forward-looking. The President tanked the market on Friday. He revived it on Sunday.

You may not like it, but that is what happened. And that is what is going to keep happening. Geopolitical negotiations are happening on social media. Investors will keep overreacting in the immediate term. Long-term investors don’t have to worry though. Avoid excess leverage, know what you own, and you can relax.

Bitcoin’s rise is pre-ordained. They will never stop printing money, so bitcoin is never going to stop going up. God bless Satoshi Nakamoto for inventing a solution to one of the world’s most difficult problems.

Hope everyone has a great start to their week. I’ll talk to you all tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Is Bitcoin The Only Safe Haven Now?

Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos.

In this conversation, we discuss whether there’s a bubble forming and where Jordi stands — bullish or bearish, we dive into the AI trade, the supply and demand imbalance driving energy and infrastructure, the growing “debasement trade” as institutions allocate to Bitcoin and gold, we explore capitalism vs. socialism, humanoid robots, and the macro forces shaping the markets today.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.

* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

* Uphold - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.

* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.

* Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

It seems the “debasement trade” is the talk of financial markets, so I asked one of the brightest minds I know to put together a guest post on what is really happening right now. This person, who wishes to remain anonymous, has an X account you can follow and a Substack with long-from analysis of macro.

The beauty of anonymity is the reader is left to judge the merits of what is written, rather than assign value based on who the writer is. This guest post below will open your eyes to a different way of seeing the world. I hope it is valuable to you.

Here is The Architecture of Debasement: Anatomy of the Fiat Illusion

* The Core Diagnosis - The Death of the Measuring Stick

Something extraordinary is happening beneath the surface of global markets. Gold and Bitcoin, two assets long treated as opposites, are rising together. On the surface, it looks like a bull market. In reality, it’s a failure of measurement.

In USD terms, U.S. assets look euphoric: Nasdaq up 165%, S&P up 102%, home prices up 56% since COVID. But when you re-denominate in gold those gains shrink to flat. In Bitcoin they implode - Nasdaq down 78%, S&P down 84%, home prices down 87%. What appears as “growth” is simply the mirror image of a collapsing unit of account.

This is the same pattern that appears at the end of every major currency regime. People feel richer in the debasing unit because the unit is melting faster than the asset can rise. In real collateral terms they’re already poorer. Gold and Bitcoin aren’t “going up” - they’re marking down the old world in real time.

* The Internal Mechanics

Debasement doesn’t begin with printing presses. It begins with the arithmetic of empire. The U.S. system depends on three linked pillars:

* Structural deficits: The government is running peacetime fiscal gaps of 6–8% of GDP - unheard of outside wartime.

* Debt saturation: Federal debt has crossed 120% of GDP. Corporate and household debt are also at record highs.

* Negative real yields: The only way to finance that load is to keep interest rates below inflation, which silently transfers purchasing power from savers to the state.

This is why wages lag prices. Why policy feels reactive. Why “wealth” feels hollow even in a booming market. We’re in a world where the money supply has outrun the narrative explaining it. The Fed is still using 20th-century instruments to manage a 21st-century reflexive spiral.

The U.S. is executing the last phase of an imperial carry trade: attracting global capital, inflating nominal asset prices, and exporting the currency risk to anyone still holding dollar claims. It worked for Britain in the 1920s and for America in the 2010s. But no empire survives once its own citizens begin thinking in alternative units.

That’s where we are now. For the first time, a critical mass of investors measure their world in Bitcoin and gold instead of dollars. Once that shift hardens, the regime is already over.

Once real yields go negative long enough, three things happen:

* Nominal asset prices rise mechanically because future cash flows are discounted at a lower real rate. This is the “wealth” people see.

* Hard collateral stops circulating - gold piles into central bank vaults, and Bitcoin moves off exchanges.

* Alternative units of account emerge - investors start benchmarking their portfolios to something other than the official currency.

This is happening in real time. Central banks have been net buyers of gold for 27 consecutive months. The dollar’s share of global reserves is at a 30-year low. Treasury auctions are increasingly reliant on indirect bidders rolling shorter maturities. These are classic pre-revaluation signals, the same behaviors you see before a peg breaks.The mechanical fuse is duration mismatch. Every sovereign, corporate, and household balance sheet is now levered to low-rate debt issued in a high-rate world. Refinancing risk has become reflexive risk: every basis point higher forces more issuance, which forces more monetization. That’s why this version of debasement is terminal - it’s the arithmetic endpoint of 40 years of compounding leverage. The system can’t normalize without collapsing its own collateral.

3. The Historical Signature

Rome debased its coinage 90% before the Western Empire collapsed. The French monarchy printed Assignats until bread cost millions of livres. Weimar Germany ran negative real rates and massive deficits before the mark imploded. The British pound lost its reserve status not in 1944 but in 1925 when the Bank of England tried to return to gold at an overvalued rate and foreign creditors stopped believing.

The pattern is always the same:

* The empire’s liabilities exceed its productive base.

* It finances the gap with monetary alchemy.

* Nominal asset prices look strong, but measured in real collateral they stagnate or fall.

* Eventually the public abandons the old unit of account and starts thinking in the next one.

That is exactly where we are at now. In USD terms, U.S. assets still look “fine.” In gold, they’re flat. In Bitcoin, they’ve already collapsed. That’s the scoreboard of a dying denominator.

4. The Reflexivity Phase

Every debasement cycle begins as accounting error and ends as reflexive panic. In the early 1920s, Weimar officials thought they were stimulating demand - they were actually erasing trust in the mark. In the 1970s, U.S. policymakers thought they were managing employment - they were detonating global faith in the dollar.

Once a population starts shifting its internal unit of account, the collapse becomes self-reinforcing. Policies meant to stabilize - rate cuts into inflation, QE under negative real yields, fiscal transfers funded by issuance - signal only one thing: the money itself is melting.

Wall Street still calls Bitcoin a “risk asset” to preserve a narrative frame, but functionally it already acts as a parallel reserve ledger. It’s the only denominator that exposes the post-2020 economy as a slow-motion Argentina.

Gold is the system’s ancestral memory, five millennia of default insurance. Bitcoin is its emerging consciousness, the ability to step outside the denominator entirely. One remembers value, the other redefines it.

Reflexivity is the hinge. Once belief breaks, measurement becomes the accelerant. Capital stops seeking yield and starts seeking refuge. Gold absorbs the instinct to remember; Bitcoin absorbs the instinct to evolve.

5. The Closing Signal

Fiat is the entropy of truth, the point where symbols detach from substance. When that gap grows too wide, the system’s own feedback loop - markets, nature, collective intuition - triggers a restoration cycle.

That’s what this moment is.

Gold and Bitcoin rising together is the world beginning to price truth again. It’s the deep field of reality pulling the ledger back into alignment with the physical laws of energy, scarcity, and time.

We’re witnessing the recollapse of abstraction.

The return of the real.

Nominal charts will keep rising. Real value will keep falling.

Until the illusion is complete…and then, suddenly, the mirror will flip.

Gold and Bitcoin won’t have “gone up.”

They will simply have stayed real long enough for the world to remember what that means.

The writer of this guest post wishes to remain anonymous, but they have an X account you can follow and a Substack with long-from analysis of macro you can subscribe to.

Hope you have a great end to your week. I’ll talk to everyone on Monday.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

The Bitcoin Trade Everyone Is Doing

Jeff Park is a Partner and Chief Investing Officer of ProCap BTC.

In this conversation we talk the debasement trade, bitcoin vs gold, why everyone seems to be getting rich while the government is going broke, Ken Griffin & Paul Tudor Jones being so excited about the market, and what the $2 billion Polymarket deal means for the future.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.

* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.

* Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Polkadot - is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September under the guise of addressing a weakening labor market. It didn’t matter that data suggested the Fed should have been cutting rates much earlier in the year, the central bank’s stated reason was the labor market issues.

Jordi Visser has been pounding the table to point out this is proof the Fed is more worried about job losses than they are about inflation. I don’t disagree.

But this development begs the question: Why is the labor market weakening?

Apollo’s Torsten Slok took a stab at explaining the slow job growth. He writes:

There are three reasons why job growth is slow: 1) Lower immigration, 2) AI implementation and 3) fewer government jobs.

Specifically:

* At the current level of GDP growth, nonfarm payrolls should be 263k every month.

* A key reason for the slow job growth is that the growth rate in the foreign-born labor force has been significantly weaker than normal. Fewer people looking for jobs means fewer people get hired.

* AI implementation is likely improving productivity.

* Government job growth was artificially high in 2022, 2023 and 2024. Combined with DOGE, government job growth is now returning to more normal levels.

The bottom line is that the weak labor market is not due to weaker labor demand, but rather to weaker labor supply because of immigration, AI implementation and a normalization of job growth in the public sector.

This analysis by Torsten is important because it highlights three major trends that are unlikely to change in the near term. So that suggests the labor market is going to have continued weakness, which means the Fed is going to keep bringing the cost of capital lower and lower.

As the Fed cuts rates lower, we should expect asset prices to go higher. Investors and corporations salivate over cheaper capital. They can push further out on the risk curve, they can invest more in R&D, and they can pour more capital into various assets.

In a very simple way, the lower the labor market goes, the higher asset prices are going to go. That is nearly the complete opposite of what has happened in history. Usually a weaker labor market means a recessionary period, which pushes asset prices lower.

But the inputs to a weaker labor market are not structural issues, but rather signs that companies are becoming more productive and efficient, while the US government is becoming less bureaucratic and bloated. Those are both big wins for the private sector.

Weak labor market, all-time high asset prices right now. Welcome to the future.

Have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

The Bitcoin Trade Everyone Is Doing

Jeff Park is a Partner and Chief Investing Officer of ProCap BTC.

In this conversation we talk the debasement trade, bitcoin vs gold, why everyone seems to be getting rich while the government is going broke, Ken Griffin & Paul Tudor Jones being so excited about the market, and what the $2 billion Polymarket deal means for the future.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.

* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.

* Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Polkadot - is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

The legends of finance have been out in full force this week. They are giving interviews left and right, but the message is very clear — US financial markets are in a bull market.

First, we saw Paul Tudor Jones on CNBC saying he feels like we are in 1999. Take a listen here:

“If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it probably isn’t a chicken.” What an incredible line from PTJ. And he isn’t wrong.

So how does the famous investor think investors should be positioned to benefit from this inflation story? Gold, bitcoin, Nasdaq and retail stocks. Here is how he explained his logic:

Paul Tudor Jones is not the only person who is bullish though. JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon shared with Bloomberg that we are in a bull market.

It is great to hear the leader of the world’s largest bank say he isn’t worried about a recession. Dimon has access to more information than almost anyone in the world. He did however say he is worried about inflation, which is something investors around the world seem to be more concerned about given the recent rise in gold and bitcoin’s price.

Another investing legend, Ray Dalio, said this week he believes gold should be around 15% of a portfolio. Here is why he believes this is the right allocation:

These sophisticated investors are not talking about gold because they think inflation is going to be low. In fact, prediction market Polymarket shows 85% odds of inflation over 3%.

But I am going to go out on a limb and say inflation is not going to be nearly as big of a problem as these legends are predicting. In fact, I think the inflation fears are widely overblown. Using the same Polymarket data, you can see the market is really saying inflation is going to end up somewhere between 3% and 3.2% in 2025.

And Truflation, which is my preferred method for understanding inflation because of their real-time infrastructure, is showing inflation at 2.2%. This a relatively big drop from the 3%+ Truflation reading at the start of the year.

But inflation isn’t the chart to watch in my opinion. That is a complete distraction from what is really happening. Strive’s Jeff Walton nailed it when he called out the divergence between CPI and M2 money supply.

He says “M2 money supply has grown 2.5 times faster than CPI over the last 20 years.” So which of those metrics are you more worried about? The manipulated, slow-growing CPI numbers or the parabolic M2 money supply growing to the sky?

It is obvious the latter is the bigger concern. So keep this in mind when you hear Ken Griffin and others talking about the US dollar having a significant decline so far this year. Here are Griffin’s recent comments:

It isn’t inflation that is driving the dollars fall, but rather the fact the government can’t stop printing money. Nothing of value has infinite supply. So until governments stop printing money, bitcoin and gold will continue surging higher.

Gold bugs are celebrating their recent outperformance on a relative basis to bitcoin. I believe bitcoin is going to have a big Q4 and it would not surprise me if bitcoin ends 2025 with a larger annual return than the precious metal.

But regardless of relative performance, the sound money principled assets of gold and bitcoin are working together to do what central banks have failed to do — protect the purchasing power of the people.

We should all be thankful we have these two options available to us.

Have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

How To Prepare For The Next Bitcoin Bull Market

Anthony and John Pompliano discuss why bitcoin is going higher, why Ken Griffin and Paul Tudor Jones are so bullish, how to enjoy the bull market while preparing for a storm, why the government will never stop printing money, and why asset prices are going higher.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.

* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.

* Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Polkadot - is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

Citadel’s Ken Griffin dropped a harsh truth in an interview with Bloomberg yesterday:

“We’re seeing substantial asset inflation away from the dollar as people are looking for ways to effectively de-dollarize, or de-risk their portfolios vis-a-vis US sovereign risk.”

It is not every day that you see one of the world’s best investors say people are de-dollarizing their portfolio. Why would they want to de-dollarize? Goldman Sachs says the story is simple:

“Trump said America can “grow its way out of debt.” What it really means is debasement. Shutdowns highlight the erosion of trust in U.S. institutions — Bitcoin is the pressure valve. That’s not bearish S&P, it’s bearish dollar.”

Those are the magic words — erosion of trust in US institutions. People don’t trust the government. They don’t trust the news. And they definitely don’t trust the central bank. Why should they? Those three organizations have proven to be untrustworthy over the last decade.

One of my favorite Satoshi Nakamoto quotes is “The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that’s required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust.”

Ain’t that the truth. Satoshi knew the problem earlier than most.

We are now seeing large amounts of capital flow to safety from this breach in trust. The crypto market saw $6 billion of inflows last week, which is an all-time high.

How should we think about these inflows? Should we assume this is speculation from investors looking to capture a quick profit? Or is there something much bigger at play?

End Game Macro says “this $6 billion inflow into crypto is a warning signal. Big money is moving because confidence in the global financial system is starting to fray. Historically, surges like this have appeared when investors begin losing faith in traditional credit markets. What makes this moment different is the context: global growth is slowing, debt loads are exploding, and the risk of a major credit event, something breaking in the bond or banking system is rising fast.”

Confidence is starting to fray. Trust is eroding.

This leaves citizens with a simple choice…stay trapped in the existing system and suffer whatever consequences come from the undisciplined decisions of leadership or take your assets and move them into a parallel system that was purpose-built to mitigate these disastrous policies.

That is the choice in front of investors — stay and suffer or leave and prosper.

It doesn’t seem like a hard choice to me. But here is the beautiful part about capitalism, everyone is financially incentivized to move to where their money will be treated best. First it was the individuals. Then we saw the small businesses and private companies. Next it was the public companies, which were followed by the large financial institutions. Eventually we will see the central banks and nation states.

Every dollar, every unit of economic value. It is all going to move into the new system and new assets. Some of the adoption will happen by true flight from the old system into the new system. Some of the adoption will happen by bringing the new assets into the legacy system via existing wrappers.

Regardless of how it happens, it could not be more clear that the transition is underway. The next decade will be defined by this trend. I implore you not to ignore it.

Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Former Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee On Bitcoin

Jeb Hensarling is the former Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee and one of the most influential voices in economic policy during the 2008 financial crisis. He has also joined ProCap BTC as a Senior Advisor.

In this conversation, we talk about how Jeb pushed back against the bank bailouts, how those same issues led to the rise of bitcoin, his views on bitcoin, stablecoins, the broader crypto industry, and how technology and innovation are reshaping the financial system today.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.

* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.

* Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Polkadot - is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe