The Pomp Letter

To investors,

Things are about to get very crazy across financial markets. Now I know there are plenty of people predicting the next recession is right around the corner, but they are simply wrong.

I am not sure if they are looking at bad data, drawing bad conclusions from good data, or some combination of the two. It doesn’t really matter how they are arriving at the wrong conclusion.

They are just flat out wrong.

Take the US stock market as one data point. Adam Kobeissi writes:

“The stock market is incredibly hot. Since 1975, there have only be 6 times where the S&P 500 rose +30% or more in 5 months. 2025 is one of those times. In 100% of these cases, the S&P 500 has ended higher in the following 6 and 12 months, per Carson Research. In fact, during such occurrences, the S&P 500 has rallied by an average of +18.1% in the following 12 months.”

Those are insane numbers. You want to bet against history? Be my guest. I like to think of financial markets similar to science though. Things in motion tend to stay in motion. Momentum is one powerful force.

But this is where things get interesting. If the stock market is growing by 30% in 5 months, there has to be someone getting richer, right? Who is holding all those stocks?

Adam goes on to explain:

“Newly released data shows that US household net worth jumped by +$7.1 TRILLION in Q2 2025 alone. In other words, for 3-straight months, US households added an average of +$79 BILLION in net worth PER DAY….

As a result, the rich are getting much richer. Currently, the bottom 50% of US households now hold just 2.5% of total US wealth. In fact, the top 1% now holds $40 TRILLION more wealth than the bottom 50% combined.”

So to recap this situation, the stock market just drove historic returns over the last 5 months. It made rich people ever richer, while the bottom 50% of Americans were left sitting on the sidelines.

That isn’t the rich people’s fault. It is a financial education problem. In fact, I would argue we have a national crisis in this country until we figure out how to educate every student on personal finance and investing.

Asset owners will be winners and savers will be losers moving forward. You may not like it, but it doesn’t make it untrue.

This bull market is not close to over either. Mike Zaccardi writes “The average bull market lasts 70 months. We are about to complete month 35 of this one.”

That is a narrative violation, right? I know your pessimist neighbor isn’t telling you this data. But data is data and almost all of it points to the fact that we are in a bull market that has plenty of legs left.

This brings us to the Federal Reserve meeting this week, which should culminate in an interest rate cut.

Yes, they are going to cut rates with the stock market at all time high and the government inflation data measuring above 2.5%. We have never seen a situation like this before.

Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello points out the last time the Fed cut interest rates with inflation over 2.9% was in October 2008, “in the midst of the worst recession/bear market since the Great Depression.”

There are two big conclusions I have from this unprecedented move. First, the Fed is going to do this because of the labor market. Artificial intelligence has been a massive deflationary force in the US economy. Companies are figuring out how to be more productive and profitable with fewer employees.

But second, the Federal Reserve has been behind the curve for months. I believe the Fed should make a 50-75 basis point cut in interest rates so they can catch up to where they should be, but history suggests the Fed will avoid being bold in their decision.

Jordi Visser explained to me this weekend why he sees the odds of a 50 basis point cut increasing:

But let’s level set for a second. Polymarket odds are only 8% for a 50 basis point cut, which is very low compared to the 90% odds of a 25 basis point cut this week.

It ultimately is not going to matter whether the cut is 25, 50 or 75 basis points though.

Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick writes “The Fed last cut in December of 2024, so it'll be nine months between cuts. Waiting 5-12 months between cuts tends to be bullish for the S&P 500. Higher a year later 10 out of 11 times with above average returns should have bulls smiling.”

The Fed is going to push asset prices, from stocks to gold to bitcoin, to much higher levels. They can’t help themselves. They have to address the labor market issues or they will have a bigger problem on their hands.

Put aside the fact that the government’s data misled the Fed into believing inflation was much higher than it actually was. Ignore the fact the Fed has become a politicized organization that seems to be cheering against the current administration’s economic plans. And refrain from getting worked up about the Fed’s flip-flopping about being “data dependent.”

The central bank is now backed in a corner. They have to cut interest rates. Given asset prices are near all-time highs, we can only expect the newfound cheap capital coming into the market to push prices higher and higher in the coming weeks and months.

Get your rain boots on. Liquidity is coming. And investors will be very happy.

Hope you all have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Jordi Visser Explains Why The Recession Is Cancelled

Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos.

In this conversation we discuss Oracle going up 40%, what is going on in the stock market, what will happen with interest rates, job revision, AI, bitcoin, interest rates, and where asset prices could be headed.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

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* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed bank that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.9% interest in BTC. Spend globally with a debit card that gives 1% cashback in BTC. Borrow up to $1M instantly with Bitcoin-backed loans.

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.

* Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

Retail investors just got a massive win last night. Their activism campaign to enact change at Opendoor ($OPEN) was completed with the naming of a new CEO and two new board members.

For context, Opendoor went public via a SPAC in December 2020. The company saw its stock price decline down to $0.51 per share earlier this year. The negative performance can be attributed to a confluence of factors, including a tough interest rate environment, a revolving door of talent, and a lack of interest from investors.

But a relatively unknown hedge fund manager, Eric Jackson of EMJ Capital, came out with a price target of $82 per share in July. Yes, you heard that right. Eric Jackson called for a nearly 160x appreciation in the stock over the next few years.

This sounded insane at first. How the hell could that be a real thing someone could predict? But then retail investors started looking into the company. That diligence made it obvious the company was significantly undervalued. They were trading at a market cap of a few hundred million dollars, yet the company was doing billions in revenue, had recently turned a profit, and was holding a ton of real estate on their balance sheet.

So retail investors started buying the stock.

But retail wasn’t just buying the stock. They began bombarding the company with pressure to improve the business. Within weeks, the existing CEO had stepped down. The remaining management team committed to not sell any of their stock. And the interim leader of Opendoor personally purchased equity in the stock market.

Not bad for a loose group of random investors who were individually acting in their own self-interest, right?

Most activist investors would have been satisfied to get this much done in such a short period of time. Retail investors weren’t satisfied there though.

The pressure continued. They wanted a new CEO who understood artificial intelligence. They wanted Opendoor co-founders Keith Rabois and Eric Wu back on the board of directors. And the retail investors were not going to rest until they got what they wanted.

Hundreds of tweets per day. Some nice, some not so nice. Just a relentless campaign to effect change at a business that these retail investors saw potential opportunity in.

Last night, the retail activism campaign became one of the most successful activism campaigns in recent history. Opendoor announced they have hired Kaz Nejatian, the COO of Shopify, to be the company’s next CEO. This is a very big win for Opendoor.

Kaz has been instrumental in building Shopify into one of the most disruptive technology companies in the world. He understands product, he understands technology, and he understands the importance of operating a lean, profitable business.

Opendoor also announced that Keith Rabois and Eric Wu would be re-joining the board of directors as well. Two more big wins. Keith and Eric are some of the world’s best entrepreneurs and investors. They bring the founder mentality and energy back to a company that desperately needs it.

So, to recap, retail activist have been able to effect significant change at Opendoor in approximately 60 days. They got the CEO to step down, they stopped management from dumping their stock, they helped find a killer new CEO, and they got their preferred directors into two of the board seats.

What an insane accomplishment in such a short period of time.

Again, this is probably the most successful activism campaign in recent history. It speaks volumes about the power of the retail movement. People can hate it. They can mock it. They can even try to fight it. But the retail investment crowd is a powerful force that is not going anywhere.

Financial markets have been changed forever. These individuals have real capital. They have access to information. And they are now emboldened to make their voice heard. We probably don’t fully understand the impact of this development, but it is important to keep watching.

Retail investors are going to become a larger part of the market. They are going to get better at what they are doing. Companies will have to come up with a retail investor strategy. If they don’t, the CEOs of these companies risk being the next executive under pressure from a group of investors who now have the track record of getting results.

Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Bitcoin Destroyed The 60/40 Portfolio with Ric Edelman

Ric Edelman is the Founder of Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals, and he is a New York Times #1 best seller of 13 different books.

In this conversation we talk about why financial advisors are finally getting excited about bitcoin, conversations they are having with their clients, the death of 60/40, gold, currency debasement, and why Ric has recommended having 10-40% exposure to bitcoin.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

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* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed bank that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.9% interest in BTC. Spend globally with a debit card that gives 1% cashback in BTC. Borrow up to $1M instantly with Bitcoin-backed loans.

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.

* Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

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To investors,

It is important you avoid getting lulled to sleep in financial markets. A great example of where I potentially see this happening right now is with bitcoin. The digital asset is down 3% over the last month and only up 20% since the start of the year. Not exactly the eye-popping return numbers that energized an entire generation that was seeking asymmetric returns.

But this lack of significant appreciation over the last 8 months doesn’t mean we can expect the same thing to continue through the rest of the year. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee was on CNBC yesterday and explained why he thinks bitcoin could double by Christmas:

Do I think bitcoin will double by the end of the year? I have no clue. Bitcoin has made significant moves in the past, so it wouldn’t be the first time, but increasing the total market cap by approximately $2 trillion in around 100 days would be breathtaking to watch.

Regardless of the price movement, Tom’s analysis of why bitcoin is poised to move higher is dead on. Bitcoin remains the most sensitive macro asset to global liquidity conditions. And if the Fed is going to cut interest rates in September, we should expect bitcoin to increase in value in response.

But bitcoin is not the only asset that Wall Street is paying attention to. This may not be what bitcoiners want to hear, but we have to be realistic about the facts of the market. In the last month, while bitcoin was down slightly, Ethereum has been up nearly 10% and Solana has been up more than 20%.

This is a direct result of Wall Street broadening their interest into more crypto assets. We have seen the launch of Ether ETFs, along with the announcement of many altcoin digital asset treasury companies.

Tom Lee announced Bitmine, which is a treasury company focused on Ethereum. Not only is he buying the asset and staking it, but Bitmine made an investment in a company called Eightco Holdings ($OCTO) yesterday. Why did they do that? Well, Eightco Holdings is becoming a treasury company for Worldcoin, which is built on top of Ethereum.

So now you have companies that are investing in the ecosystems of these altcoins. And before you argue how dumb this strategy is, you should know that Eightco Holdings saw an approximately 30x increase in their share price in a single day off the announcement. I don’t know if Nasdaq has ever seen a company go from $1.72 to over $72 a share in one trading session, but thats what happened yesterday.

Just insane.

This is not only happening in the Ethereum ecosystem either. We are seeing Sol Strategies, a publicly traded Canadian company dedicated to building Solana infrastructure, cross-list and start trading on Nasdaq this morning. The company will trade under the ticker $STKE, which stands for “stake.”

I have been an advisor to the company and CEO Leah Wald for awhile, so I have seen how that company in particular has been built. They own a bunch of SOL on their balance sheet, they stake their balance sheet assets, and then they own a number of validators that allow them to monetize other people’s SOL that is being staked.

In a similar vein, we saw the announcement of a new Solana-focused treasury company through Forward Industries Inc. The company is backed by Galaxy Digital, Jump Crypto, and Multicoin. Kyle Samani is joining as Chairman of the board. This effort has raised more than $1.6 billion in cash and stablecoins to execute the strategy.

That doesn’t happen unless the opportunity is clear from the market.

If you thought Wall Street loved companies holding altcoins, just wait till they realize these companies can provide cash-flow and yield. Again, it doesn’t matter what individual investors believe, you have to understand what the broader financial market is dying for — yield.

And we have also seen asset management firms like Coinshares announce a deal to go public via SPAC. They are doing it at more than $1 billion valuation too. Cash-flow from crypto-related companies is all the rage right now.

So this brings me back to the broader theme playing out. Crypto is assaulting Wall Street. Bitcoin was first through the door. It has always been the king and it will remain the king in my opinion. But Wall Street is starting to broaden their horizons.

They don’t care about any particular coins. They want returns. And if that brings them to altcoins, yield, or cash-flow companies, so be it. They are trying to fulfill their mandate to capture alpha and it seems the market has collectively decided crypto-related opportunities is one of the best places to look.

Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

The Truth About The Fed & Bitcoin

Mel Mattison is an investor, author, and a former fintech executive.

In this conversation we talk about the role of the Federal Reserve, why they historically have not been independent, who is to blame for current debasement, why gold and bitcoin are so important, and what Mel would do if he was Fed chair.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.

* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed bank that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.9% interest in BTC. Spend globally with a debit card that gives 1% cashback in BTC. Borrow up to $1M instantly with Bitcoin-backed loans.

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.

* Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

Disclaimer: Network, ecosystem, top-up and withdrawal fees may apply

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

It seems many people are freaked out over the weak jobs report from last week, but I don’t think people quite understand what is happening right now. We are living through one of the most historic moments in technology history.

You may think that sounds like hyperbole, but I brought cold, hard facts to prove it.

Take a look at this chart from Aahan Menon — tech sector output is skyrocketing at the same time that tech sector employment is contracting.

Quite literally, we have never seen this happen at any point over the last 60+ years. Companies are becoming more productive, but with less people. It is the textbook definition of efficiency.

Now you may ask “how is this happening?”

Don’t worry, I got you covered. Let’s use Coinbase as the first example. CEO Brian Armstrong recently wrote:

“Approximately 40% of daily code written at Coinbase is AI-generated. I want to get it to greater than 50% by October. Obviously it needs to be reviewed and understood, and not all areas of the business can use AI-generated code. But we should be using it responsibly as much as we possibly can.”

Yup, he said 40% of daily code written at the company is being done by artificial intelligence. And he isn’t the only one. Eight Sleep CEO Matteo Franceschetti wrote in response:

“48% of the code from our data team is now AI-generated—and that share keeps climbing every week. Beyond engineering, teams across the company are rapidly adopting tools like Devin, making AI adoption our fastest-growing company-wide metric.”

These are public and private companies. They are software and hardware. One is worth hundreds of millions. The other is worth tens of billions. Each is publicly confirming that nearly half of the code written is coming from artificial intelligence.

No wonder we are seeing productivity spike upwards, while employment is falling. So this begs the question, “who is losing their job?”

The answer is very clear — the number of junior roles are declining and the number of senior roles are increasing. Alex Cheema shows junior roles are down 23%. Senior roles are up 14%.

This means the best engineers, which are usually the most senior, are the big winners from the AI revolution. That is an important data point because it proves that AI is making one group more productive at the expense of the less experienced group.

So open your eyes and ears. These companies are showing us how they are doing it. Too many people refuse to believe them. Eventually that will have to change.

This brings me to the broader US economy outside of the tech sector. Our friends at Boring Biz highlighted a recent report from Moody’s that said “33% of states in the U.S. are already in recession territory.”

It looks like Texas, California, Florida, New York and North Carolina are responsible for majority of the economic growth happening right now. Those also happen to be the states with significant tech activity, including Silicon Valley, Austin, Miami, El Segundo, the Research Triangle Park, and Silicon Alley.

It makes sense the economic growth is happening in these areas. But the fact we are not seeing growth in other states is less than ideal.

Add in the fact that the S&P 500’s Price-to-Book Value is now higher than the 2000 Dot Com Bubble and you already know the bears are out in full force screeching about the impending catastrophe in financial markets.

But before you throw up your hands and say the bears are right, Sam Badawi reminds us we have had three bear markets in the last five years.

And if that didn’t make you feel good, the Federal Reserve is about to juice the market with an interest rate cut too. They haven’t been the only ones this year.

Adam Kobeissi writes:

“The Fed is about to join the global rate cut cycle: There have now been 88 rate cuts worldwide year-to-date, the most since 2020. This puts 2025 on track for the 3rd-fastest global cutting cycle on record, according to Bank of America.”

So my best advice is to stop listening to all the bears. They keep predicting a recession, yet the odds on Polymarket have fallen from 65% in May to only 8% today.

A big reason for these declining odds is the underlying business fundamentals are getting better. Companies are reporting record revenue, profits, and growth. These businesses are becoming more efficient and more productive, so they should be worth more money. And that is exactly what you are seeing in the stock market.

And you can’t have a recession if companies are getting stronger. So good luck to the pessimists out there. I hope they don’t actually believe all the nonsense they are spewing.

Have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Why Bitcoin Will Hit $150,000 Sooner Than You Think

Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos.

In this conversation we talk about the bad jobs report, what will happen with inflation and the fed, when bitcoin will break out, artificial intelligence, Tesla, and why asset prices will keep going higher.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.

* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed bank that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.9% interest in BTC. Spend globally with a debit card that gives 1% cashback in BTC. Borrow up to $1M instantly with Bitcoin-backed loans.

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.

* Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

The jobs report this morning is going to send shockwaves throughout the market. We saw growth slow to an extraordinarily low 22,000 payroll additions in the month of August.

As if that wasn’t bad enough, the June jobs revision brought the June jobs number negative. Heather Long points out the new data shows the US economy lost 13,000 jobs in June, which is the first negative month since December 2020.

She goes on to say “there's barely been any job growth in the past 4 months. Almost all the jobs added are in healthcare. Without healthcare, job growth would be NEGATIVE in the past few months.”

Not good.

Joey Politano writes “US blue-collar job growth has completely stagnated, hitting the lowest level since the onset of the pandemic—manufacturing is currently losing jobs at a rapid pace, and growth in construction/transportation has slowed to a crawl.”

Now interestingly, white collar jobs within US manufacturing are actually growing, which is not exactly what you would expect given the public narrative right now.

But manufacturing is not the only place we are seeing the issues. Heather Long shows the job slowdown is across the economy. In the last 3 months, mining has lost 13,000 jobs, construction is down 10,000 jobs, business professionals are down a whopping 51,000 jobs, and the federal government has lost 34,000 jobs. Finance, which is largely thought to be immune to most economic policies, has also seen zero job growth over the last 90 days.

So what is going on here? Well, this brings us back to what I have been talking about all year. The US economy is getting smacked by a massive deflationary force. The combination of tariffs and artificial intelligence are a powerful cocktail that is driving significant changes in the economy.

This is why it has been so dangerous for the Federal Reserve to continue keeping interest rates at elevated levels. Their refusal to cut rates, even though the data told them to do it, has put them behind the curve once again.

Today’s job report essentially guarantees we will get a rate cut in September. It also drastically increases the odds we will see multiple rate cuts through the end of 2025.

The US economy is sprinting into a big headwind. We need the stimulus to generate the right kind of economic activity. Without it, the headwind will take its toll and make things much harder than they need to be.

As you all know, I am not a big fan of human-led monetary policy. But if we are going to use it, then the humans at the Fed should at least implement the monetary policy in a consistent, predictable way. They haven’t been doing that. Their critics claim it is for political reasons. Their supporters claim it is because tariffs were supposed to be inflationary.

Regardless of the reason, the Fed has made a big mistake and must do their best to correct the issue. I believe we should see a large interest rate cut in September. A small 25 basis point cut is unlikely to do enough to put a dent in the problem.

We should get a 50 basis point cut at a minimum and there is a serious argument for the cut to be 75-100 basis points. Now those are big numbers. The market would have a hard time swallowing such a bold move, but sometimes you have to do unpopular things in order to get the Federal Reserve back on track.

They are behind the curve. Our central bankers have completely miscalculated the impact of tariffs, and they seem to have misunderstood how pervasive artificial intelligence would be, so they should scramble to use their toolbox to get interest rates lower sooner rather than later.

This brings me to asset prices. Most assets are already trading at or near all-time high prices. If we get a large interest rate cut in September, asset prices will go much higher. The Fed can’t worry about that though. They have a labor problem on their hands. Truflation is showing inflation is under 2% right now.

That is a 50% reduction in inflation since the start of the year. The Fed should have been cutting rates. They can’t go back in time, but they can cut rates aggressively through the end of the year. And investors who are exposed to stocks, bitcoin, and gold will do well.

Now we all sit and wait to see what Jerome Powell and his crew decides to do in light of the terrible, no good jobs report from this morning.

Hope you all have a great end to your week. I’ll talk to you on Monday.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Why Bitcoin Is Mispriced Right Now with Jeff Park

Jeff Park is a Partner and Chief Investing Officer of ProCap BTC.

In this conversation we talk about what separates smart investors from those who just follow ideology, how that mindset shift can make you better in the market, the idea of a bitcoin treasury company, and how businesses could stack more bitcoin without constantly raising new capital.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.

* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed bank that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.9% interest in BTC. Spend globally with a debit card that gives 1% cashback in BTC. Borrow up to $1M instantly with Bitcoin-backed loans.

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.

* Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

Bitcoin adoption happened in a special way. Most technology is first used by militaries and nation states, then corporations adopt it, and finally the average person is given access to the technology. This happened with the internet, phones, computers, and many other innovations of the last century.

But bitcoin has been different.

The people adopted bitcoin first. Nation states thought about banning it. Corporations thought it was too risky. It was the average person who did the work to understand the asset, realize the market opportunity, and take the leap of faith to buy and hold the world’s first decentralized digital currency.

And the people have been rewarded well for taking that risk.

Now corporations are working hard to catch up. Bitcoin platform River just put out a great report showing how large a percentage of bitcoin purchases now come from companies, rather than individuals.

Sam Baker and Vincent Lee write “businesses have emerged as the primary force behind bitcoin's ongoing bull market. In the first eight months of 2025, bitcoin inflows onto business balance sheets have already exceeded the total for all of 2024 by $12.5 billion.”

A big reason for this significant increase in accumulation from businesses has been the recent rise of publicly-traded bitcoin treasury companies. The report says these treasury companies account “for 76% of all business purchases since January 2024 and 60% of publicly reported business holdings.”

Ever since Microstrategy became the first public company to hold bitcoin on it’s balance sheet, we have seen an explosion of other companies follow. It is estimated there are more than 50 other public companies who hold at least 10 bitcoin each.

And these companies are not just in the United States. In fact, the bitcoin treasury phenomenon has become a global game almost overnight. There are public companies in nearly every market who continue to convert their local currency into digital sound money.

So it is obvious that these treasury companies are a big reason for the continued bitcoin bull market. But it is important to remember that although these companies are buying up a lot of bitcoin, they are still slightly behind funds and ETFs which are the largest category buyer of bitcoin so far this year.

It is healthy to have various types of buyers in a bull market, so it is good to see the demand is coming from funds, ETFs, treasury companies, private businesses, and individuals alike.

But lets go back to the idea of companies holding bitcoin for a second. Most companies are never going to put majority of their balance sheet into bitcoin. At least not in the short-term. So a much more realistic scenario is for companies to put 1% of their balance sheet into the digital asset.

1% may not sound like a lot, but look at the difference a 1% allocation would have made for Microsoft, Google, and Apple since 2020.

Each of these companies has seen their balance sheet’s purchasing power erode from $14 billion to $21 billion since 2020. Think about how crazy that is. The silent tax of inflation has stolen $14+ billion of shareholder value in half a decade. Just insane.

If these same companies had allocated only 1% of their treasury to bitcoin in 2020, they each would have seen a treasury gain of $14 billion to $29 billion in that same half decade. We are talking about a $25 billion swing or more in each one of these companies.

And the risk they would have had to take was only a 1% allocation. Seems like a no brainer in hindsight.

This brings me to my last point, which is what companies are actually doing in terms of their allocation percentage. “River's data shows that many businesses are allocating far more than a hypothetical 1% to bitcoin. Businesses using River allocate an average of 22% of their net income, according to a July 2025 survey. The median allocation is 10%.”

So there you have it. An allocation as little as 1% would have had a profound impact on most company’s balance sheet since 2020, but the average allocation has been 22% of net income and the median allocation has been 10%.

Something tells me those percentages will increase over time.

If you want to read the full River report, you can check it out by clicking here.

Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

🚨 READER NOTE: Saquon Barkley is the best running back in the NFL. He is also one of the best technology investors over the last few years.

Saquon has amassed a portfolio including Anthropic (currently valued at $183 billion), Ramp ($22.5 billion), Anduril ($14 billion), Cognition ($9.8 billion), Neuralink ($9 billion), Strike (~$1 billion), and Polymarket (~$1 billion). He’s also a limited partner in funds including Founders Fund, Thrive Capital, Silver Point Capital, and Multicoin Capital.

My wife, Polina Pompliano, spent months interviewing Saquon, his team, the founders in his portfolio, and those who know Saquon best. She wrote the definitive profile on the running back turned tech investor.

Highly recommend reading the piece today.

Why Trump & The Fed Will Make Bitcoin Keep Going Up

Darius Dale is the Founder & CEO of 42Macro.

In this conversation we talk about the Federal Reserve, inflation expectations, what is going on with Lisa Cook, how to fix the housing market, and how the market could play out the rest of the year.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.

* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed bank that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.9% interest in BTC. Spend globally with a debit card that gives 1% cashback in BTC. Borrow up to $1M instantly with Bitcoin-backed loans.

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.

* Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

There is a seismic shift underway in how countries think about preserving their economic value for the long-term. It is imperative that you understand what is happening here because the ramifications will touch every asset class, every market, and every investor over time.

Let me explain.

The story is best seen through the explosion of adoption related to gold as a reserve asset for foreign governments. Adam Kobeissi writes:

“Gold is replacing fiat currencies as a reserve currency: Gold's share of global international reserves rose 3 percentage points in Q1 2025, to 24%, the highest in 30 years. This marks the 3rd consecutive annual increase. Meanwhile, the US Dollar's share declined ~2 percentage points, to 42%, the lowest since the mid-1990s. The Euro share remained roughly unchanged at ~15%. Gold is now the world’s second-largest reserve asset after surpassing the Euro in 2024. Gold is seeing historic levels of demand.”

Now it is important to understand that fiat currencies will not fluctuate in price ($1 = $1), but gold’s price can appreciate. My friend Val Katayev responded to Adam saying “This is based on value. As gold price goes up, it will naturally be a higher % of global reserves since other currencies do not appreciate in value generally.”

Speaking of gold’s price, it is up nearly 70% since the start of 2024. That is an epic run for an asset that historically had much more stability.

Even with Val’s volatility caveat though, the significant increase in gold adoption can’t be ignored. So the market is obviously trying to tell us something. What exactly is it?

I asked Silvia, the AI CFO that our team built, to explain why gold has been rallying over the last 18 months. Here is what she told me:

“Gold has essentially experienced a "perfect storm" of supportive conditions: institutional demand, inflation concerns, geopolitical risks, and favorable interest rate environments all aligning simultaneously. This combination has pushed gold to historic highs and fundamentally shifted its role from primarily a dollar hedge to a critical reserve asset for uncertain times.”

This explains why gold’s price is appreciating, but it doesn’t explain why central banks maintained record-high gold purchases in 2024, accounting for over 20% of global demand (compared to ~10% historically).

For that answer, we can turn to Porter Stansberry. He writes:

“This is the ‘End of America’ — the loss of our currency’s world reserve status — and the beginning of the end of the world’s post-Bretton Woods financial system. Anyone dependent on the government’s credit will be destroyed over the next decade.”

Now as you all know, I am not usually someone who is fond of doomsday predicting. The demise of America has long been promised, yet it has not come true. But I don’t think Porter is exclusively talking about the demise of our society and our institutions.

He is explicitly talking about the loss of the US dollar as the world reserve currency.

That doesn’t seem too crazy, right? The bitcoiners have been yelling about this problem for years. The gold bugs have been yelling about it for decades. And now you have central banks and foreign governments who seem to have come to a similar conclusion. Maybe they aren’t ready to completely abandon the US dollar—remember the US dollar is still the most popular reserve asset for central banks globally—but they are definitely more open to reducing their allocation percentage than they had been in prior years.

So this brings us to the most important question for you all. What should you do in this scenario? Is there anything you can do personally? What could you change to protect yourself and possibly benefit?

Porter says “to save yourself: 1. Own a great business; 2. Hold real money — gold, Bitcoin. 3. Sell the dollar (borrow long-term, at fixed rates).” Those three ideas seem reasonable to me. And they have been helpful to people throughout history who faced similar situations.

So central banks are gobbling up gold. They are loosening their dependence on US dollars. And retail investors are buying gold and bitcoin to leverage sound money properties to protect themselves.

But is there something even bigger brewing under the surface? Potentially.

This video of India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Chinese President Xi Jinping went viral over the weekend. They are chopping it up like a bunch of school boys plotting how to skip class and get an extra recess session in.

But this isn’t elementary school and these world leaders could significantly change the global world order if they decided to play nice with each other in a highly coordinated fashion.

Investor Kashyap Sriram threw out an interesting perspective. He wrote:

“5 years from now, when people ask: how did we end up in a multi-polar world order? It started with the US policy of attempting to isolate Russia from the EU, doubling down by de-globalizing free trade through tariffs, and attempting to bully India into severing ties with Russia. Honorable mention goes to nationalizing US tech giants and export controls backfiring by inducing China to develop its own advanced semiconductor tech.”

Now it doesn’t take Albert Einstein to get out a hypothetical calculator and add 1 + 1 here. Central banks are looking to gold and other reserve assets at the same time that many of the largest countries have their leaders chumming it up with each other.

Are we likely to see a multi-polar world emerge? Maybe. I don’t know what the end result will be. But I do know that a lot of things are changing right now and it is essential you pay attention. And it definitely won’t hurt to have sound money assets like bitcoin and gold in your portfolio.

Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

READER NOTE: We are less than two weeks away from the Independent Investor Summit in NYC on September 12th. This is going to be an incredible event packed with actionable investment ideas from many of your favorite internet-native investors.

Get your ticket by clicking here.

How Bitcoin Outpaces Stocks In The Next Decade

Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos.

In this conversation we talk about the Federal Reserve, what is going to happen with artificial intelligence, future outlook for stock market, and why interest rate cuts will be so bullish for bitcoin.

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.

* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed bank that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.9% interest in BTC. Spend globally with a debit card that gives 1% cashback in BTC. Borrow up to $1M instantly with Bitcoin-backed loans.

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.

* Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

We are living through a very important shift in macro investing. You can see it clearly with a brand new development that hasn’t happened in the last 30 years. Three decades!

So what is this development?

Macro analyst Tavi Costa points out “Foreign central banks now officially hold more gold than US Treasuries — for the first time since 1996. Let that sink in. If you think this buying streak is ending, just look at what happened in the 1970s. This is likely the beginning of one of the most significant global rebalancings we've experienced in recent history.”

Now there are a few different reasons for this outcome. First, the United States is debasing the dollar at an accelerated pace over the last half-decade. The dollar has lost nearly 30% of its purchasing power since 2000. Second, the United States has aggressively used sanctions against Russia, Venezuela, and other adversaries. This abrasive decision highlighted the risk foreign countries have when they hold US treasuries as their main reserve asset.

And maybe most importantly, the rise of bitcoin, which has coincided with an epic run for gold, has solidified the belief that sound money principles never go out of style when trying to transport value through time.

Central banks are waking up to the idea that holding paper probably isn’t the best strategy. Paper and treasuries can be printed at will, while hard assets are outside the control of anyone and can’t be printed. What would you rather hold? The answer is obvious.

But then there is an even more interesting way to think through this problem — holding US treasuries may bring a negative real rate of return. Although the Fed continues to parrot a 2% inflation number, the real rate of debasement is 4% since 1971. This means that a treasury that is paying you less than 4% is actually losing you money on a real return basis.

So now you have central banks who say “Wait! You mean I was holding an asset that could be created out of thin air, confiscated by the US government at any time, and was essentially guaranteed to lose me money?!” Makes sense why they have been dumping treasuries in exchange for gold.

And eventually they will add bitcoin to their reserves as well. We live in a world where everything is fake. The money is fake. The bonds are fake. The photos on Instagram are fake. And the food is even becoming fake.

This means real things — things that have objective value through finite supplies or sound money principles — will become even more valuable over time. Fake is a fad. Hard assets are timeless. And central banks realize it.

So I wouldn’t want to fade the central banks. They are some of the most powerful institutions globally. They have a money printer and one day I believe they will accelerate their printing to buy more gold and bitcoin.

Upgrade your portfolio. Fortify it with the hard assets. Sound money is the only money that ultimately matters.

Have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Why Is Bitcoin’s Price Going Down?

John and Anthony Pompliano discuss bitcoin, why the price is going down, what’s going on with the Federal Reserve, Lisa Cook and the pressure from the White House, prediction for the next 10 years of the US economy, and will Powell cut interest rates?

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.

* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed bank that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.9% interest in BTC. Spend globally with a debit card that gives 1% cashback in BTC. Borrow up to $1M instantly with Bitcoin-backed loans.

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.

* Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

A recent study spells disaster for many young people entering the workforce right now. Simply, these young people are getting smoked in the job market due to artificial intelligence. The new paper tried to understand where artificial intelligence is driving more jobs in the economy and where AI is destroying jobs.

And, as expected, the conclusions are a doozy.

The paper is titled “Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence” and it analyzed data from the largest payroll software provider in the United States.

According to Nic Carter, “the authors of the paper looked at job data since 2022 and divided jobs into most and least exposed to AI (quintile 1= least exposed, quintile 5 = most exposed).”

He says the example "high exposure" (quintile 5) jobs include:

* software developers

* customer service and support

* clerical roles

* writing and media

* business analysts

So what is happening to young people in these job categories? Do they have more or less opportunity thanks to artificial intelligence?

The Economist’s Mike Bird highlights one of the main conclusion from the study: “since the widespread adoption of generative AI, early-career workers (ages 22-25) in the most AI-exposed occupations have experienced a 13 percent relative decline in employment.”

This is a trend we have been talking about over the last few weeks, but now we have concrete data to quantify just how severe the situation is. A 13% relative decline in employment is a very big deal. Some may even call it catastrophic for a cohort of workers who are trying to figure out how to get their professional footing.

If we dig deeper into this paper, not only did the paper find “substantial declines in employment for early-career workers in occupations most exposed to AI.” But they also “show that economy-wide employment continues to grow.”

That is the killer conclusion in my opinion. Overall, the economy is growing jobs, but young people in AI-related jobs are falling significantly behind. You think that is going to be a problem in the future? Obviously. And what happens when AI continues to get better and better over time? Remember, right now is the worst the technology will ever be.

So it is entry-level workers today, it will be more senior workers in a few years.

But before young people go cry in a corner, there is a positive perspective on this news as well. Nic calls it a “K-shaped AI hypothesis.” I call it “Compete, don’t complain.”

The idea is that AI makes it easier than ever to make a living. The barriers to starting a company, building a product, or selling a service have never been lower. Rather than praying someone is going to hire you, young people have the opportunity to accelerate their achievement of financial freedom by creating jobs for themselves.

Do you need curiosity, intelligence, and creativity? Absolutely. Do you need to have agency and be a self-starter? You got it. But if a young person is hungry for success, these new tools open a world of possibility that never existed before.

So the data is clear — young people are having a harder time finding work thanks to AI. But these same people can now make significantly more money, and do it much faster and easier, than their older peers.

AI is a tool. You can use it for good or bad. You can use it to create jobs or destroy them. The choice is yours. Winners write history, so my suggestion is for everyone to spend a few hours to become proficient with the latest AI tools. Your career quite literally may depend on it.

Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Why Is Bitcoin’s Price Going Down?

John and Anthony Pompliano discuss bitcoin, why the price is going down, what’s going on with the Federal Reserve, Lisa Cook and the pressure from the White House, prediction for the next 10 years of the US economy, and will Powell cut interest rates?

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.

* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed bank that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.9% interest in BTC. Spend globally with a debit card that gives 1% cashback in BTC. Borrow up to $1M instantly with Bitcoin-backed loans.

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.

* Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

* Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe

To investors,

The landslide victory for President Trump in November’s election suggested that a large portion of the country was excited about the prospect of putting a businessman and investor back into the White House. Since his inauguration, Trump and his administration have gone to work implementing their plan with a frenetic pace.

Most of the commentary this year has been focused on Trump’s tariff policies. There was intense volatility and uncertainty through the first half of the year. Tariffs were placed on various countries, then the tariff rates were increased, then the tariffs were paused, then the tariffs were implemented again, and eventually some of the tariffs were removed or reduced.

This constant change led to critics complaining that the White House had no clue what they were doing. While plenty of smart people think that critique is true, you could also see the tariffs for what they were — an iterative process during a fluid negotiation on the geopolitical stage.

Another way to say it is “dealmakers trying to do deals.”

I am not saying whether it was the right strategy or not, but rather viewing the actions through the lens of dealmaking creates a level of understanding and clarity that seems to make more sense than any other perspective.

But as any dealmaker knows, the best deal is the next one.

And the White House has been busy trying to strike even larger, more important deals. Take the recent announcement of the United States government receiving 10% ownership in Intel, the American giant designing, manufacturing, and selling computer components. Following the initial announcement, Trump posted on social media that the government now owns the 10% stake without investing any money in the company.

Of course, the devil is in the details.

Critics immediately sounded the alarm that the United States government was beginning to act like a communist state where successful enterprises eventually ended up being state-owned. These critics ignored the American precedent of the government taking equity stakes in companies across industries at different times.

According to Perplexity, a few examples include:

* 2008 Financial Crisis – TARP Program: The government acquired significant equity stakes in many major firms, including AIG, Citigroup, Bank of America, General Motors (GM), and Chrysler, as part of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). This involved buying newly issued preferred stock and even common shares in exchange for bailout funds. For example, the government became the majority (60.8%) shareholder in GM in 2009, controlling its restructuring and board appointments before selling its shares in subsequent years.

* 1984 – Continental Illinois Bank: In response to a major bank failure, the FDIC took an 80% equity stake and actively participated in corporate governance for several years before divesting.

* CARES Act (2020 – COVID pandemic): The government financed critical sectors (including airlines) and, per the law, often received equity warrants or similar rights as part of these investments.

So the Intel deal doesn’t seem as abnormal if you have the historical context. But remember, I said the devil was in the details.

Legendary energy trader John Arnold encapsulated my thoughts perfectly when he wrote “I’m not thrilled about the government giving Intel $11.1 billion for a 10% stake but it’s better than the original idea of giving them $7.9 billion for nothing.” It is important to realize the government is not investing cash, but rather they are using previously awarded but undisbursed funds from the CHIPS Act and the DoD’s Secure Enclave program. Think of this as a trade where the government essentially demanded 10% equity in exchange for the government awards that Intel was already expecting from the Biden-era legislation.

Venture capitalist Bill Gurley also had a good point when he said “If the government is the “lender of last resort” they should 100% take equity and arguably 100% of the equity. Failed to do this with GM, Goldman Sachs, United (& other airlines). How do you know if they are lender of last resort? The company takes the deal.”

My takeaway from this situation is the US government is not going to be in the business of taking equity positions in private sector companies, but they have a history of getting paid for stepping in to help in unique situations. There will be debate whether the securing American leadership in advanced semiconductor manufacturing is an unique enough situation to warrant the equity stake, but most investors I have spoken with think the government should not be in the business of handing out money without being compensated for the risk they are taking.

Remember, dealmakers making deals.

This brings me to the news from last night that President Trump is firing Lisa Cook, the embattled Federal Reserve Board Governor who has been accused of mortgage fraud by FHFA Director Bill Pulte. This is the first time in history that the President of the United States is removing a Fed Board Governor, so the critics are out in full force.

I have no clue if this is legal or not, and my guess is there will be a large legal battle for the courts to decide what is permitted, but the move makes a lot more sense when you think of a CEO firing an employee for being accused of a serious crime that carries decades in jail as the punishment. Again, forget the political aspect for a second and imagine you worked at a company where the same dynamics were at play — it is nearly impossible to see a situation where company leadership wouldn’t step in and remove the employee.

Frankly, people have been fired for significantly less in the past.

So my new framework for understanding what is coming out of the White House is to view it through a business lens. The iterative tariffs are dealmakers making deals. The Intel position is corporate leadership demanding economic upside for taking financial risk. And the firing of Lisa Cook is a CEO having a zero-tolerance policy for ethical issues.

I am not arguing that the United States government should be run like a business, but I am highlighting a large portion of the country thinks it should be. The last administration proved to be highly incompetent when it came to handling crime, immigration, geopolitics, and the US economy. They rarely, if ever, fired someone for doing a bad job. And they were mocked and ridiculed on the global stage.

This administration is taking a completely different approach. Only time will tell how effective the new strategy is.

Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Jeff Park on Bitcoin’s Volatility

Jeff Park is a Partner and Chief Investing Officer of ProCap BTC.

In this conversation we talk about bitcoin, why the volatility is a feature, institutional adoption, opportunities for bitcoin treasure companies, and why bitcoin rate-of-return is so important.

Enjoy!

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