The Recombobulation Area

Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley has had a rather unique campaign in his run for governor, to say the least. He dropped out of the race in early July and endorsed Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez a day later, not realizing she had misled him about an unraveling campaign finance crisis in her campaign.

Ten days later, he’d officially re-launch his campaign, and do so with the backing of Gov. Tony Evers. Since, he’s picked up a number of labor union endorsements, and has been hitting the road in an effort to get his message across the state, in this last-minute sprint before the Aug. 11 primary.

The campaign in this primary — perhaps the most discombobulating primary in American politics — changed again last week, after former lieutenant governor Mandela Barnes dropped out of the race, days after the one and only debate, and after polls from State Navigate and Marquette University showed State Rep. Francesca Hong with a commanding lead.

So, just 16 days after Crowley re-entered the race, and just eight days before Election Day, I sat down with Crowley at Dandy, a vintage furniture store and event venue on West Vliet Street in Milwaukee.

We talked about what he considers his top accomplishments in his six years at the helm in Milwaukee County, what he’d want to do as governor if Democrats were to win a trifecta, his thoughts on eight years of divided government in Wisconsin, how he is seeking to reach voters outside of southeastern Wisconsin, his relationship with Democratic Socialists in county government in Milwaukee, whether the Democratic Party has a problem with “elitism,” Francesca Hong’s recent rally with Congresswoman Ilhan Omar and Hasan Piker, what it means to build the “broadest coalition possible,” why union support matters to him, and much more.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

Ben Wikler, the former chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, is out on tour, promoting his terrific new book, “This Is The Plan: How to End America’s Meltdown and Save Democracy.”

I joined Wikler to host the event in Eau Claire for a live conversation to talk about the book, Wisconsin’s especially discombobulating campaign season, and much more, on topics from gerrymandering to the filibuster to “the establishment” to state legislative races to the news of the day on Ken Martin and the DNC. He even explained why he agrees with Sen. Ron Johnson on something (yes, really!).

And in case you missed it — which, hey, you might have; there’s a lot going on these days! — we have full audio of the event here.

The event was introduced by Secretary of State Sarah Godlewski, who is also running to be Wisconsin’s next Lieutenant Governor. Wikler and I joined next, at the wonderful Pablo Center at the Confluence, and talked for about 30 minutes, before we answered a few questions.

Event audio recorded by Jonathan Klett, mixed by Jennie Brand.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

It’s been another busy week in Wisconsin politics, with the one and only debate happening Tuesday at Marquette University, two new polls showing Francesca Hong opening up a sizable lead over the rest of the field, and a news cycle unfolding at breakneck pace as we get closer and closer to the Aug. 11 partisan primary.

Your friends here at the Wisconsin Politics Group Chat podcast are here to break it all down.

For a beat-by-beat breakdown, check out our topics and timestamps below:

* 00:00 — Intro: recapping a big week in Wisconsin politics

* 00:42 — Debate recap: format and moderators

* 03:30 — Pat’s debate takeaways

* 05:04 — The state of the field and Francesca Hong’s lead

* 06:10 — Why the other candidates didn’t attack the frontrunner

* 11:12 — What’s next for Barnes, Crowley, Brennan, and Roys

* 16:26 — The missing healthcare questions

* 20:14 — Working with the legislature

* 21:29 — Down-ballot primaries and previewing your ballot

* 22:26 — Inside the spin room with Dan

* 28:05 — Comparing the Marquette and State Navigate polls

* 31:25 — Undecided voters and leaners

* 33:44 — The candidates as Breakfast Club characters

* 35:42 — Listener question: how to decide your vote

* 39:18 — Hong’s campaign style and ground game

* 44:08 — Looking ahead to the general election

* 47:43 — The generation gap in the polls

* 50:51 — Predictions for the final stretch

* 52:03 — The 3rd Congressional District and 17th Senate District primaries

* 58:21 — Closing thoughts on unity after the primary

* 59:54 — Plugs, voting reminders, and wrap-up

The Wisconsin Group Chat podcast features Dr. Kristin Lyerly, Pat Kreitlow of UpNorthNews, Kate Duffy of Motherhood for Good, and Dan Shafer of The Recombobulation Area.

Find the previous episode of the Group Chat here.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

A new poll of the Democratic primary in the race for governor in Wisconsin was released today by State Navigate, with support from UpNorthNews and Main Street Action.

Here are the headline results, showing State Rep. Francesca Hong of Madison with a huge lead.

UpNorthNews first reported on the results of the poll, and you can find Pat Kreitlow’s full story here.

You can find State Navigate’s breakdown — which includes extensive graphics, deep-dive crosstabs, and just a wealth of information — here.

Chaz Nuttycombe is the executive director of State Navigate, and if you are a longtime subscriber here at The Recombobulation Area, you are already familiar with his work. He does some of the best polling you will find of state legislatures around the country, including in Wisconsin, where I have used his analysis as a core piece of the mammoth Wisconsin State Legislature I write every election cycle.Nuttycombe’s work was previously under the name “CNalysis”, but he’s now running State Navigate, which has extensive data on elections up and down the ballot in Wisconsin. Check out their Wisconsin forecast here.

Among the many takeaways, beyond Hong’s huge lead, is just how much data centers have emerged as a significant issue in this race.

Nuttycombe also writes in his breakdown that, “The re-entry of David Crowley into the race has almost certainly crowned Francesca Hong as the Democratic nominee.”

Following that re-entry, the Milwaukee County Executive moved into a virtual tie in second with former lieutenant governor Mandela Barnes, who also has the most second-place votes in the race.

But, bottom line, as Nuttycombe said: “I think this primary is done.”

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

Over the past two weeks, the Democratic primary in the race for governor has turned into absolute chaos. Candidates are out, candidates are in, politicians are making endorsements, people are freaking out about the establishment, and this is all very discombobulating.

Nobody knows anything, but the Wisconsin Politics Group Chat — Dr. Kristin Lyerly, Patrick Kreitlow of UpNorth News, Kate Duffy of Motherhood for Good, and Dan Shafer of The Recombobulation Area — is here to try to make sense of all of it.

We talked about all that’s happened over the past two weeks, the upcoming Marquette University Law School Poll, an upcoming poll from UpNorth News (👀👀👀), Kelda Roys’ campaign, Francesca Hong’s campaign, Mandela Barnes’ campaign, David Crowley’s campaign, Tony Evers’ endorsement, and much more.

Oh, and we also talked about the guy on the other side of the aisle, Tom Tiffany, and why he’s an especially problematic candidate, maybe the most far-right candidate who has ever run a statewide race in Wisconsin.

We also talked about some of the news as it was breaking in real time about whether people who may have already voted absentee can change their vote.

Just three weeks until the Aug. 11 primary, folks.

EPISODE DETAILS:

00:00 — “Democrats in Wisconsin are going through it”

01:54 — The two-week recap: Crowley out, Rodriguez implodes, Crowley back in

03:33 — Why the Marquette poll will be confusing (+ a new poll is coming)

07:29 — Endorsements: which ones actually move votes?

11:41 — The Kelda Roys puzzle: doing the right things, not breaking through

15:42 — Does anyone outside Milwaukee know David Crowley?

17:16 — Where are all the TV ads?

19:42 — Has Francesca Hong pulled ahead?

25:31 — Could Fran actually govern in a divided state?

30:18 — Mandela Barnes: dark horse or falling stock?

33:52 — What to watch for in the Marquette poll

35:54 — The 70,000-ballot problem: spoiled ballots & the WEC ruling 44:22 — Tom Tiffany: the record behind the folksy ads

51:07 — Embrace the chaos + debate preview (July 28, WISN 12)

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

The last two weeks of campaign politics in Wisconsin have been extremely discombobulating, to say the least.

Since Tuesday, July 7, the following has happened:

* Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley ended his campaign

* Crowley endorsed Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez

* Rodriguez announced she was firing her campaign manager over a major campaign finance crisis

* Campaigns filed their finance reports, covering the period from Jan. 1 - June 30

* The Republican Governor’s Association made a multi-million dollar ad buy widely believed to be designed to boost Francesca Hong’s campaign

* Rodriguez ended her campaign

* Crowley announced he was be re-joining the race, and did so with the endorsement of Gov. Tony Evers

It’s been a lot.Amid all of this, so much of the talk seemed to surround a certain candidate in the race, so we wanted to hear from her herself.

What does she think of Crowley rejoining the race, with Evers’ endorsement? Does she see this as “the establishment” lining up against her? What does the term “the establishment” even mean to her?

What does she think of Act 12, the consequential piece of legislation many Crowley supporters were talking about at his campaign re-launch event? What’s happening with her campaign’s vaunted ground game? What is her big picture view of Tony Evers’ time as governor? And if she comes up short in the Aug. 11 primary, would she back whoever the Democratic nominee ends up being?

She answered those questions and more, speaking in downtown Milwaukee.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

Today is is a rather discombobulating day for a variety of reasons. For one, here in the city of Milwaukee, we are experiencing the worst wildfire smoke here that I think we’ve ever experienced here in the city. The air quality is atrocious and everything smells like a campfire — and not in a good way. It’s really, really bad.

Secondly, scrolling social media to see Giannis Antetokounmpo being introduced as a new member of the Miami Heat gave me a bit of a visceral reaction to this visual. This never should have happened. Giannis should have been a Buck for life. Ugh.

Third, we are in the middle of the most discombobulating week of the election cycle for the Democratic primary in the race for governor.

Campaign finance reports for everyone running have just been released, and it would be an insane amount of information to parse in normal times, much less when one of the seemingly top candidates is having their campaign implode over a campaign finance crisis.

So, I am discombobulated. So today’s podcast might seem a little unhinged. But I am thrilled to be talking to one of my very favorite people to talk to — Greg Bach. Greg was the host or co-host of many different shows on Civic Media, and I used to talk with him every Friday when he was co-hosting “Matenaer On Air.”

We talked about these discombobulating times, the big picture of the Democratic primary, and much more.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

The Wisconsin Politics Group Chat of Dr. Kristin Lyerly, Patrick Kreitlow and Dan Shafer (we missed Kate Duffy this time!) got together once again to talk about all the latest happenings in Wisconsin politics, diving deep into the emerging scandal for a candidate that seemed ascendant just a few days ago.

Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez fired her campaign manager over mismanagement and inaccuracies in campaign filings on Sunday, faced the press at a news conference in Madison on Monday, and now, folks are left wondering if her campaign can continue.

We talked about all of that and more.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

State Sen. Kelda Roys is making the case that she’s the candidate in the Democratic primary for governor who can get things done for Wisconsin, and as the person in this race who is the biggest threat to Republicans in a general election.

“I think the Republicans looking at this race do see me as the biggest threat to Tom Tiffany because I will eviscerate him,” she said. “I will hold him accountable for every horrible thing that he has done to our state. I can do so effectively, and build that broad coalition that we need not just to win the general election, but also to deliver the Senate and the Assembly so that we can actually have a Democratic trifecta and then use it and govern. I’m just excited about, and not afraid to use power, to get things done for Wisconsinites.”

In this conversation, we talked about lessons learned from her 2018 campaign, her experience in the legislature and serving on the powerful Joint Committee on Finance, the potential of a Democratic trifecta, how her message translates statewide, and much more.

Plus, given the news of the day surrounding Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez firing her campaign manager “after discovering serious mismanagement and inaccuracies in campaign finance filings she prepared,” we talked about her reaction to that, too.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe

The Wisconsin Politics Group Chat of Kate Duffy, Dr. Kristin Lyerly, Patrick Kreitlow and Dan Shafer got together once again to talk about all the latest happenings, from socialism scaremongering to data center moratoriums to the Democratic primary in the race for governor (controversies, microprimaries, etc.) and beyond.

We also talked about the end of Child Care Counts (on June 30) and the beginning of postpartum Medicaid extension (on July 1), and about the many congressional primaries happening in races all over Wisconsin.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.therecombobulationarea.com/subscribe