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In this episode of The Restricted Handling Podcast, we’re diving into the latest and most intense developments involving China and its global strategy. From the U.S.-Israel airstrikes in Iran to China’s military buildup in the Pacific, we cover it all. This is where geopolitics, military moves, and strategic decisions collide. Here’s what we’re breaking down today: 

We start with an explosive update on the U.S.-Israeli strikes that took out Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and nearly 40 top officials. China’s reaction? As cool as a cucumber. While Beijing has condemned the attack, they’re playing the long game, focused on securing their oil interests and managing energy vulnerabilities. With a strategic interest in Iran’s oil exports, China’s got a lot at stake in this volatile situation, but they're not jumping in feet first. We dive into how China’s making calculated moves to ensure its economic and energy stability in a region that’s always unpredictable. 

Next, we revisit Taiwan, where tensions continue to simmer. The PLA’s military presence is as strong as ever with hundreds of sorties and naval vessels surrounding the island. Taiwan’s government is juggling an urgent March 15 deadline to sign critical U.S. arms deals while domestic political squabbles over defense spending heat up. China’s steady pressure isn’t about to let up anytime soon. We break down the latest updates on military patrols and what that means for the island’s security. 

Shifting gears to the South China Sea, China’s been ramping up its military presence around the disputed Scarborough Shoal. Whether it’s flying bombers, sailing destroyers, or simply asserting dominance, Beijing is sending a clear signal that it can counter any multinational patrols at will. With the Philippines, the U.S., Japan, and Australia conducting joint operations, China’s flexing its muscles, making it clear that it’s got control over its backyard. 

We also dive into China’s broader strategic outlook as the National People’s Congress rolls out its new Five-Year Plan. With a heavy focus on AI, robotics, and space capabilities, China’s doubling down on tech innovation. However, in the midst of its technological push, China’s economy is facing some serious turbulence. Industries like electric vehicles are dealing with crushing competition and rising debts. How will Beijing balance its aggressive growth plans with an economy that’s showing signs of stress? 

Finally, we wrap up with a look at China’s growing military strength, particularly in its rapidly expanding nuclear-powered submarine fleet. With new subs like the Type 095 and Type 096, China is gearing up to challenge U.S. naval supremacy. This arms race in the Pacific is heating up, and we break down what it means for global security and U.S. naval strategy. 

Tune in for a packed episode with all the latest on China’s moves in Iran, Taiwan, the South China Sea, and its race to modernize its military. From cyber threats to submarine fleets, this episode is a must-listen for anyone keeping an eye on China’s evolving role in the world. 

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In today’s episode of The Restricted Handling Podcast, we’re diving into some of the most intense geopolitical shifts happening right now. From Russia’s response to the escalating conflict in the Middle East to Ukraine’s ongoing fight for territory and Europe’s bold moves against Russia’s shadow fleet, this episode is packed with key updates you won’t want to miss. 

We kick things off with Russia’s surprisingly low-key reaction to the U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that decapitated Iran’s leadership, including the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Russia sent some strong words condemning the strike, but there was no real support for Iran. Could this be the end of Russia’s "strategic partnership" with Tehran? Tune in as we break down the awkward diplomatic dance between Moscow and Tehran after the deadly blow to Iran’s leadership. 

Then, we’re heading to the oil markets, where Iranian threats to the Strait of Hormuz are sending global prices sky-high. With Russia’s economy already hanging by a thread, the surge in oil prices could provide some much-needed relief—if only temporarily. But don’t expect Russia to be popping champagne just yet. The chaos in the Gulf, while boosting prices, is also increasing instability, and Russia can’t afford to look like it’s too happy about that. 

Next, we’ve got some updates from Ukraine. Zelenskyy’s peace talks with Russia are still up in the air due to the Middle East situation. But Russia’s recent comments indicate they might be open to post-war security guarantees. Could this be a sign that Moscow is ready to negotiate? Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are making significant territorial gains, with strategic drone strikes hitting key Russian infrastructure, including the vital Sheskharis oil terminal in Novorossiysk. 

And the drama doesn’t stop there. The EU is getting more aggressive with Russia’s shadow fleet, with France and Belgium working together to seize a sanctioned Russian tanker in the North Sea. This is a major blow to Russia’s efforts to dodge sanctions and keep oil flowing through the backdoor. Europe’s not messing around, and it’s about time. 

Finally, we wrap up with Russia’s internal security chaos. The FSB has been busy taking down more than 200 individuals linked to Ukrainian sabotage efforts. With the domestic pressure mounting and more threats on the horizon, Russia’s internal instability is only adding fuel to the fire. 

Get ready for a packed episode as we cover everything from high-stakes diplomacy to military maneuvers and economic turbulence. 

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In this episode of The Restricted Handling Podcast, we dive straight into a packed week that feels like three geopolitical chess matches happening at the same time. 

China is preparing to launch a brand new Type 09V guided missile nuclear submarine, and this is not just another hull sliding into the water. This platform reportedly carries 18 vertical launch system cells and adds a serious undersea cruise missile punch to Beijing’s growing anti access strategy in the Western Pacific. If you care about Taiwan contingencies, carrier strike group survivability, or the future of naval deterrence between Guam and the First Island Chain, this is the kind of development you pay attention to. 

At the same time, Xi Jinping is ripping through the top ranks of the People’s Liberation Army. Central Military Commission Vice Chair Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Chief Liu Zhenli are now out amid corruption investigations. That is not minor reshuffling. That is two of the most senior operational figures in China’s military structure being removed while Beijing is pushing toward its 2027 readiness milestone. We break down what that means and why purging your generals while building next generation warfighting capability is a risky balancing act. 

Then we shift to Taiwan. Taipei is facing a March 15 deadline to sign three US arms packages, and domestic political friction is complicating the timeline. Meanwhile, PLA gray zone pressure continues with naval vessels, aircraft activity, and coordinated patrols in the South China Sea near Huangyan Dao. This is steady, deliberate pressure designed to normalize Chinese military presence and test political resolve. 

We also cover the US and Israeli strike that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader and why that move hits China in a very specific place. Beijing has been a major buyer of Iranian oil. Energy security, sanctions evasion, and great power positioning all intersect here. China condemned the strike and began evacuating its nationals from the region. This is not just Middle East drama. It connects directly to China’s strategic calculus. 

Finally, we look at China’s upcoming Five Year Plan rollout at the National People’s Congress, with heavy emphasis on artificial intelligence, robotics, and advanced manufacturing. This is the long game of technological competition, and it sits right alongside military modernization and global supply chain maneuvering. 

If you are tracking China strategy, Taiwan risk, US China competition, or global security trends, this episode connects the dots in a way that is serious but still actually listenable. 

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In this episode of The Restricted Handling Podcast, we break down one of the most volatile 72-hour stretches in global security in recent memory. 

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is confirmed dead following coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes. Tehran responds. Moscow reacts. Oil markets brace. And suddenly the war in Ukraine is colliding with Middle East escalation in ways that could reshape diplomatic timelines and energy flows. 

We walk through what actually happened, who said what, and why it matters. 

Russia publicly condemned the killing and called it a violation of international law, but stopped short of offering real support to Tehran. That silence speaks volumes. At the same time, OPEC+ announced a production increase of 206,000 barrels per day as fears swirl around possible disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Nearly a quarter of global seaborne oil moves through that corridor. If traffic slows, prices spike. If prices spike, Russia benefits. 

Meanwhile, Ukraine peace talks hang in the balance. President Volodymyr Zelensky says the timing of the next round of negotiations depends on Middle East security conditions. Kyiv also claims Moscow signaled openness to U.S.-backed postwar security guarantees during recent talks in Geneva. That is a significant development if confirmed, and we explain what that could mean. 

We also cover Belgium’s seizure of the sanctioned Russian tanker Ethera in the North Sea. French helicopters supported the boarding operation. This was not symbolic enforcement. This was boots on deck. Europe appears increasingly willing to physically interdict Russia’s shadow fleet, which has been quietly keeping oil revenues flowing despite sanctions. 

On the battlefield, February marked the highest monthly total of Russian missile strikes since at least early 2023. Moscow launched 288 missiles and more than 5,000 long range drones in a single month. Ukrainian forces responded with strikes on S-300 systems, ammunition depots, and the Sheskharis oil terminal in Novorossiysk, a critical Black Sea export facility. 

We also examine Russia’s domestic crackdown on alleged Ukrainian linked communication networks, with more than 200 arrests across 43 regions, and growing criticism inside Russia of Telegram as a security vulnerability. 

This episode connects Russia, Iran, Ukraine, OPEC+, NATO, energy security, sanctions enforcement, and drone warfare into one clear narrative without drowning you in jargon. If you follow international relations, national security, military strategy, energy markets, or great power competition, this one is essential listening. 

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The Supreme Leader is dead — now what happens next?

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This is ROUND 2 w/ Tony DeMario who spent 30+ years on Iran and regional proxies at CIA.

After the decapitation strikes.
After Operation Epic Fury and Operation Lion’s Roar.
After U.S. and Israeli forces eliminated Iran’s Supreme Leader and dozens of senior IRGC officials.

Tony DeMario returns to break down what comes next.

Tony is a former senior CIA officer with 34 years in the Army and Agency, specializing in Iran, counterterrorism, and Iranian regional proxies. He currently serves as Executive Vice President at Strider Technologies, a strategic intelligence firm focused on geopolitical risk and nation-state competition.

This episode goes beyond headlines.

We discuss the collapse of Iran’s leadership structure, succession risks, proxy retaliation, Russia’s angle, China’s oil calculus, and whether regime change is even realistic.

🎙️ In this episode, we cover:

• The strategic impact of killing Iran’s Supreme Leader
• Why this is historically unprecedented
• Whether Iran’s security apparatus can reconstitute
• Hezbollah and proxy retaliation risks
• The role of Russia in prolonging instability
• China’s oil dependency on Iran
• Succession scenarios inside Tehran
• Whether Reza Pahlavi is viable (spoiler: unlikely)
• Why “nation building” is not on the table
• The risk of Libya- or Iraq-style fragmentation
• What sustained U.S. strikes would look like
• The danger of premature celebration

Tony explains why:

• Decapitation alone doesn’t equal regime collapse• Infrastructure destruction matters more than leadership removal• Iran’s bureaucracy is deeper than many realize• Russia benefits from U.S. distraction• This is the weakest Iran has been in decades — but that doesn’t guarantee stability

Just clear-eyed analysis of a historic moment.

⏱ TIMELINE / CHAPTERS

• 00:00 Intro
  03:00 The Decapitation Strategy
  10:00 IRGC & MOIS Reconstitution
  16:00 Hezbollah & Proxy Threat
  22:00 Russia’s Incentives
  29:00 China & Oil Calculus
  35:00 Succession & Assembly of Experts
  41:00 Could Iran Fragment?
  48:00 What Nation Building Would Require
  55:00 Final Assessment

Tony DeMario is a former senior CIA officer with 34 years of service in the Army and Agency. He led teams focused on Iran, counterterrorism, and Iranian proxy networks across the Middle East.

He currently serves as Executive Vice President at Strider Technologies, a strategic intelligence firm specializing in geopolitical risk and state-backed economic threats.

Strider Technologies:
https://www.striderintel.com/

Tony DeMario on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/tony-demario/

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multiple-time Chief of Station.

Institute of World Politics – Faculty Profile
https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/

Great South Bay Consulting
https://greatsouthbayinc.com/

Subscribe and receive the daily intel brief:
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https://www.restrictedhandling.com/What’s Coming Up Next Week in the World (March 1–7): China’s Two Sessions, UN Power Moves, EU Security Talks & Ukraine Accountability

What’s on the global calendar next week? In this episode of The Restricted Handling Podcast’s “What’s Coming Up Next Week in the World,” we break down the major scheduled geopolitical events from March 1 through March 7 — no predictions, no hype, just the real-world meetings, summits, and institutional moments that serious observers are watching.

This week’s lineup is stacked.

The United States assumes the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council, a procedural shift that carries real agenda-setting power. When Washington holds the gavel, timing and framing of debates on Ukraine, Russia, and Middle East security can subtly shift. It’s not dramatic — but in international diplomacy, control of the schedule is control of momentum.

Meanwhile in Beijing, the annual political season known as the “Two Sessions” begins. The Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) opens first, followed by the National People’s Congress (NPC). This is where China sets its legislative tone, signals economic priorities, and frames national security and defense spending for the year ahead. If you track Xi Jinping’s policy direction, Chinese economic stimulus signals, or long-term strategic planning, this is required viewing.

Over in Europe, EU ministers gather in Cyprus for discussions on EU enlargement (including Ukraine and Moldova), the long-term EU budget, and countering foreign information manipulation. Translation: how committed is Europe to sustained support for Kyiv, and how resilient is it against Russian hybrid tactics? The answers won’t come in dramatic press conferences — they’ll show up in budget language and policy alignment.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meets in Vienna for a full week. Nuclear oversight, safeguards, and the intersection of Ukraine’s nuclear infrastructure and Middle East nuclear tensions make this a quiet but critical forum. If you follow nuclear security and non-proliferation policy, this is where the technical groundwork gets laid.

In Brussels, the EU Justice and Home Affairs Council tackles migration policy, Schengen governance, Europol coordination, and — notably — accountability for crimes committed in Ukraine. This is the legal architecture side of geopolitics. Slow, deliberate, and designed to endure beyond headlines.

We also flag the U.S. Employment Situation report, because global markets react instantly — and financial conditions shape everything from sanctions regimes to defense budgets.

On the watchlist: potential early-March diplomatic sequencing involving Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia; anticipated reactions from North Korea as joint U.S.–South Korea drills approach; and possible Chinese economic policy signals during the parliamentary sessions.

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⚠️ This episode was recorded ONE HOUR before U.S. strikes on Iran (February 27–28). The predications are eerily accurate and insight and context about what comes next is worth the listen.

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The predictions and assessments made here are eerily close to what unfolded overnight.

We will follow up with a post-strike assessment episode — but this conversation captures the strategic thinking immediately before the kinetic phase began.

In this episode of the Restricted Handling Podcast, Glenn Corn and Ryan Fugit are joined by Tony DeMario, former senior CIA officer with 34 years in the Army and Agency, specializing in Iran, counterterrorism, and Iranian regional proxies.

Tony led teams across some of the most sensitive Iran-related missions in recent history.

This is not academic analysis.
This is pre-strike strategic insight from someone who has lived the problem set.

🎙️ In this episode, we discuss:

• Whether Iran’s regime is weaker than at any time since 1979
• Why regional partners hesitate to openly support U.S. action
• Hezbollah’s residual capabilities
• Whether strikes would be symbolic — or decapitation-level
• Why the IRGC leadership structure matters
• What would actually fracture regime cohesion
• Russia’s strategic interest in prolonging Middle East instability
• Whether protests inside Iran change the calculus
• Why negotiations may be delay tactics
• What it would truly take to end the conflict

Tony explains why:

• Iran has “never won a war, but never lost a negotiation”
• Decapitation without follow-through may not achieve deterrence
• Russia benefits from distraction
• Sanctions and economic pressure may matter more than strikes
• The regime’s internal corruption complicates every scenario

This episode captures the strategic debate just before events overtook analysis.

⏱ TIMELINE / CHAPTERS

00:00 Recorded One Hour Before U.S. Strikes
03:00 The Carrier Groups & Regional Tensions
08:00 Iran’s Internal Power Struggle
14:00 Hezbollah & Proxy Capabilities
20:00 What a “Decapitation Strike” Means
27:00 Regional Allies & Overflight Politics
33:00 Russia’s Strategic Angle
38:00 Negotiations: Real or Delay?
45:00 Could the Regime Collapse?
52:00 Final Assessments Before Kinetic Action

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multiple-time Chief of Station.

Institute of World Politics – Faculty Profile
https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/

Great South Bay Consulting
https://greatsouthbayinc.com/

Subscribe and receive the daily intelligence brief:
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HOW TO FIND GLENN CORNRESTRICTED HANDLING

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A weekly deep dive into the latest spy stories and intelligence updates from across the globe. We spotlight the hidden dynamics driving security crises, geopolitical maneuvering, and covert operations—all with a sharp, unvarnished perspective. From cyber threats to clandestine influence campaigns, this episode pulls together the week’s most critical developments, cutting through the noise and spin. Join us as we uncover the storylines shaping tomorrow’s conflicts, power plays, and intelligence battles.

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China is not easing into the weekend. It is reshuffling generals, spoofing aircraft identities, probing telecom networks, and watching US stealth fighters from orbit. In this episode of The Restricted Handling Podcast, we break down a fast moving 24 hours that show how Beijing is operating across military, cyber, political, and economic fronts all at once. 

We start in Beijing, where nine senior military officials were removed from China’s National People’s Congress just days before the annual Two Sessions political gathering. This includes full generals from the Ground Force, Navy, Air Force, Rocket Force, and even the Information Support Force. If you follow PLA modernization, you know this is not routine paperwork. It is another chapter in Xi Jinping’s ongoing military purge, and the timing ahead of a major policy event matters. 

Then we head south to the South China Sea and Taiwan’s doorstep. Chinese Wing Loong 2 drones have reportedly been flying long endurance missions while broadcasting fake aircraft identities. Yes, you read that correctly. These drones spoofed transponder codes from a Belarusian cargo plane and even a British fighter jet. We talk through what that means, why the Bashi Channel keeps showing up in the flight paths, and how this fits into broader Taiwan contingency planning. 

On the cyber front, a China linked hacking group known as UNC2814 was disrupted after compromising telecom and government targets in 42 countries. Their command and control infrastructure? Google Sheets. Not a Hollywood hacker bunker. A spreadsheet. We break down how that works and why telecom networks remain a strategic target in global competition. 

There is also an update on influence operations targeting Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, including attempts to use AI tools to amplify negative narratives during election season. At the same time, Japan is moving forward with plans to deploy Type 03 surface to air missile systems to Yonaguni Island, just miles from Taiwan. 

In the United States, a former Air Force F-35 instructor pilot has been charged with allegedly training Chinese military aviators. That case connects directly to long standing concerns about talent recruitment and technology transfer. 

And finally, Chinese commercial satellite imagery publicly revealed 11 US F-22 Raptors deployed to Israel’s Ovda Air Base alongside a Patriot missile battery. Forward basing is now visible to the world in near real time. 

If you care about US China relations, Taiwan, the South China Sea, military modernization, cyber espionage, AI influence operations, or great power competition, this episode connects the dots in a way that is sharp, grounded, and actually listenable. 

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Russia launched 420 drones and 39 missiles across Ukraine just hours before US and Ukrainian officials sat down for high-level negotiations in Geneva. This was not routine pressure. It was one of the largest strike packages of 2026 and a clear signal ahead of talks involving Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and Ukrainian negotiator Rustem Umerov. We unpack what was hit, why energy infrastructure remains the primary target, and what this says about Moscow’s negotiating posture. 

We also cover new evidence that Russia has used the 9M729 ground-launched cruise missile in combat. That is the same system that triggered the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty in 2019. With New START now expired, the reappearance of this missile on the battlefield matters. We explain what it is, why it was controversial, and why its use now is strategically significant. 

On the economic front, the IMF has approved an $8.1 billion four-year program for Ukraine, with $1.5 billion disbursed immediately. We look at how this fits into the broader $136 billion international support framework and the estimated $588 billion reconstruction cost outlined by the World Bank. While missiles are flying, the financial architecture of the war is still very much in motion. 

We also dive into Europe’s growing energy and political tensions. Hungary is blocking a €90 billion EU loan package to Ukraine amid accusations over Druzhba pipeline disruptions. Poland and Romania scrambled fighter jets during Russian strikes. A Russian drone approached the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle in Sweden. Hybrid pressure inside NATO space continues to build. 

Beyond Europe, we examine Russia’s recruitment of foreign nationals, including developments in Kenya and South Africa, and new Russian legislation shielding foreign fighters from extradition. Inside Russia, reports suggest Telegram could be blocked beginning April 1, adding to tightening digital controls as the security state expands its reach. 

This episode connects the dots between battlefield escalation, nuclear treaty fallout, global finance, European energy politics, hybrid warfare, and internal Russian control. If you follow geopolitics, international security, US foreign policy, NATO strategy, or great power competition, this is the breakdown you need. 

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 Get the daily intelligence brief Ryan and Glenn read covering Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, the Middle East, geopolitics, sanctions, military and intel operations. Save a few hours of your time getting ahead of the news cycle at restrictedhandling.com.