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This episode of The Restricted Handling Podcast is packed with some serious geopolitical moves you won't want to miss. First, we dive into the latest from Taiwan, where China is pulling out all the stops in its ongoing campaign to bring Taiwan into its fold. On April 10th, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Cheng Li-wun, the leader of Taiwan's opposition party, the KMT, in Beijing. This rare meeting could signal a shift in Taiwan's political landscape, but with military activity ramping up around the island, it's clear that Taiwan's sovereignty remains as contentious as ever. Taiwan's government isn't backing down either, with ongoing military pressures from China making headlines.

Next, we shift our focus to the Middle East, where China has positioned itself as a diplomatic player. President Trump recently credited China for helping bring Iran to the table in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks. But while China has stepped in to broker peace, they're staying cautious. They're happy to play the role of facilitator, but don't expect China to get too deep into the weeds of this mess. We break down how China's diplomatic efforts are shaping its global image and what this could mean for its relationship with the U.S., especially with the upcoming Xi-Trump summit in May.

Then, it's time to talk South China Sea. The Philippines is making its move, opening a major coast guard base on Thitu Island. This is a clear signal that the Philippines isn't backing down in its territorial claims, even as China ramps up military presence in the area. With Chinese naval activities on the rise, the tension in these waters is reaching new heights. Taiwan's coast guard is even getting in on the action, calling out China's increasingly aggressive tactics. We dive into how this is all playing out on the ground and why this region is about to get even more interesting.

We also take a look at China's growing concerns about the digital world. The Ministry of State Security recently raised the alarm about the risks surrounding AI-generated tokens. With over 140 trillion token transactions happening daily, China is looking to protect its rapidly expanding digital economy from hackers and fraud. This isn't just a tech issue—it's a national security one, and we're breaking down why it matters for the global economy.

Finally, China's economy is feeling the pinch of rising oil prices, driven by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. For the first time since September 2022, producer prices in China are up, signaling a shift in the economic landscape. But with weak consumer demand and ongoing struggles in the housing market, it's unclear if this bump will do more harm than good. We dive into how this could affect China's global economic standing and what it means for businesses and consumers alike.

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In today's episode, we're diving into the latest twists in Russia's ongoing struggle to maintain its power both at home and abroad. We're talking drones, oil strikes, and the political showdown in Hungary that could shift the balance in Europe. It's a jam-packed episode, so let's get right into it.

Ukraine's drone game is stronger than ever. Over the past month, Ukrainian forces have been hammering Russian energy infrastructure, and it's working. The drones are making serious impacts, forcing Russia to rethink its defense strategy. Ukrainian forces have targeted key oil terminals, hitting places like Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga. These attacks are costing Russia billions, and with their air defense systems running low on ammo, Russia's struggle to protect its energy resources is becoming more evident. And it's not just Ukraine's drone strikes that are causing headaches for Russia—the growing sophistication of Ukrainian drones is pushing the tech envelope, with mini-jet engines becoming a crucial piece of their strategy.

Meanwhile, Russia's looking for new allies as its influence in Europe starts to fade. The Kremlin's got its sights set on Hungary's elections, hoping to keep Viktor Orbán in power. Orbán has been Putin's man in Europe for years, and losing him would be a big blow to Russia's influence. The US has shown support for Orbán, adding another layer to this high-stakes geopolitical drama. But there's a twist—Orbán's challenger, Péter Magyar, is gaining momentum. It's a tense race, and Russia's watching closely to see which way it will go.

Back in Russia, things aren't going smoothly on the internal front either. The country's economy is taking a major hit, with the budget deficit already surpassing the yearly target in just the first quarter of 2026. A large part of that deficit comes from plummeting oil revenues, a direct result of Ukraine's strategic strikes on Russia's energy sector. Morale in the military is also slipping, and internal security operations, including the FSB's recent moves to disrupt Ukrainian sabotage inside Russia, show just how fragile things are.

This episode packs a punch with these big-picture developments, but we also break down how Russia's battle isn't just against Ukraine—it's also against the rising pressure from within and around the world.

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Cuba is closer to collapse than at any point in decades and most people aren't paying attention.

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In this episode, Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn sit down with Moisés "Mo" Julião, retired CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and former Chief of Station, to break down what is really happening in Cuba right now.

From collapsing infrastructure to rising unrest, Cuba may be entering a phase that could reshape the Western Hemisphere.

In this episode, we cover:

• Why recent armed incursions into Cuba are not as unusual as they seem • The historical context shaping Cuban behavior today • How the Cuban regime maintains control through isolation • The real economic crisis unfolding on the island • The impact of fuel shortages, blackouts, and food supply breakdowns • Why remittances from the United States are keeping the system alive • The role of Russia and recent oil shipments into Cuba • The potential for regime transition and what comes next • Why humanitarian collapse is a real risk • How Cuban intelligence historically outperformed expectations

Mo explains why Cuba operates in a "time capsule" shaped by the 1959 revolution and Cold War dynamics, and why that mindset still drives decisions today.

He also provides a sobering look at how quickly conditions could deteriorate into a full humanitarian crisis.

Timeline / chapters

• 00:00 Introduction and Mo Julião background • 03:22 Armed incursions and historical context • 06:08 U.S. presence and embassy realities • 07:00 Daily life inside Cuba and information control • 10:50 Remittances and economic survival • 12:49 Signs of instability and protests • 16:00 Regime survival and backchannel discussions • 18:20 Cuban perception of the United States • 20:14 The Russia tanker decision and strategic signaling • 21:06 Power dynamics inside the Castro system • 23:04 Cuban intelligence and espionage success • 28:04 Infrastructure collapse and economic fragility • 32:31 Risk of humanitarian crisis • 36:35 Policy options and missed opportunities • 45:00 Cultural insight and the "next revolution"

About Moisés "Mo" Julião

Moisés "Mo" Julião is the founder and CEO of Alenttay Solutions and a retired CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer.

He served over two decades in the CIA's Directorate of Operations, including as Chief of Station and in multiple conflict zones. He also served as a Lieutenant Colonel in the U.S. Army and worked closely with special operations forces.

Alenttay Solutions https://alenttay.com/

LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/moises-e-juliao-esq-2b97b5250

How to find Glenn Corn

Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/).

Restricted Handling

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In today's episode of The Restricted Handling Podcast, we're diving into the latest drama unfolding in the Middle East. The ceasefire between the US and Iran is in place, but let's just say it's more like a truce than a lasting peace deal. We're unpacking the big headlines-Trump's two-week breathing room with Iran, Israel's continued strikes on Lebanon, and the explosive situation in the Strait of Hormuz. It's a geopolitical hot mess that's only getting hotter, and we're breaking it all down for you.

First up, the ceasefire. The US and Iran agreed to a two-week pause in fighting-sounds great, right? Well, don't hold your breath. While the oil markets are cheering with a brief dip in prices, the reality on the ground is far less settled. The Strait of Hormuz, that vital shipping lane, is still under Iranian military control. Iran's calling the shots on who gets to pass through, charging tolls and requiring permission for safe passage. That's right-ships are now getting special treatment, and it's not cheap.

Meanwhile, Israel's not taking a break. They've ramped up their airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, making it clear that the ceasefire doesn't apply to Lebanon. In one of their biggest air campaigns to date, they've hit over 100 targets in a matter of minutes, and the death toll in Lebanon is skyrocketing. Iran is watching closely, and they've warned Israel to stop. If this keeps up, Iran may pull out of the ceasefire altogether, and that would send things straight back to square one.

On top of all this, the Houthis in Yemen are making waves again. After laying low for a while, they launched missiles at Israel on March 28, reminding us just how far Iran's reach extends. Whether it's Hezbollah, the Houthis, or other Iranian proxies, it's clear that Tehran is still pulling a lot of strings in the region.

Back in the US, military operations are in full swing. Over the weekend, the US military pulled off a massive rescue mission in Iran, with over 150 aircraft involved. They rescued a downed airman, proving once again that the US has some serious military muscle when it needs to flex. But the bigger question is: will they continue with these types of operations, or will the focus shift to diplomacy?

And finally, let's talk about Iran's economy. It's in freefall, but it's not all bad news for Tehran. China is still buying up Iranian oil, keeping the lights on for the regime-barely. But as sanctions tighten and airstrikes continue, it's clear that Iran's economy is on life support.

It's a delicate balance right now. Will the ceasefire hold, or is this just a brief pause before the next round of fighting? We've got all the latest updates on the military, the politics, and the economy-no fluff, just the facts you need to stay ahead of the news.

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In today's episode of The Restricted Handling Podcast, we dive deep into the latest on Russia and its ongoing challenges. First up, we're revisiting Russia's energy sector, which is taking hit after hit from Ukrainian drone strikes targeting key oil terminals. These strikes are causing serious damage to Russia's ability to export oil, and it's making a real impact on their ability to fund the war. We discuss how this relentless pressure is forcing Russia to confront the limitations of its air defenses, which are starting to show cracks under the strain.

Next, we turn our attention to Hungary's upcoming elections, where Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is facing off against a serious challenger in Péter Magyar. Orbán, known for his strong ties to Moscow, is running a campaign fueled by fear, warning Hungarians that voting for the opposition could drag them into war with Ukraine. Russia, of course, is backing Orbán, but Magyar is gaining momentum, and this election has become a high-stakes game for influence, not just in Hungary, but across Europe.

We also talk about Ukraine's drone game, which continues to evolve rapidly. Ukrainian drones are becoming faster, cheaper, and more effective. We've got an update on the mini-jet engine shortage that's threatening to slow down drone production. If Ukraine can overcome this bottleneck, their drone capabilities could push even deeper into Russian-held territory, and Russia will have to rethink its entire air defense strategy.

Back inside Russia, we see the ripple effects of the war on its own military leadership. We talk about the tragic death of Lieutenant General Alexander Otroshchenko, the commander of Russia's Navy Air Force and Air Defense, and the broader signs of instability in Russia's military. The war isn't just affecting the frontlines; covert operations inside Russia are creating chaos, with the FSB recently stopping a plot to plant explosives near a government building. The internal issues are mounting, and Russia's internal stability is being shaken, even if Putin is trying to brush it off.

And finally, we discuss Russia's ongoing diplomatic struggles, especially with Japan, as Moscow protests Japanese investments in Ukrainian drone technology. Russia's response to these moves is revealing just how isolated they're becoming on the global stage, especially as countries like Japan and the West continue to side with Ukraine.

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In today's episode, we're diving deep into the latest developments from Iran and the Middle East. The US and Iran have hit pause on the conflict—well, sort of. A two-week ceasefire deal has been reached, and the Strait of Hormuz is about to reopen. But don't get too excited just yet, because Iran's military will be in charge of that passage. Yes, Iran is playing the long game, leveraging the world's most important oil chokepoint for their own strategic and financial benefit. So, while oil prices took a major hit and stock markets are celebrating, the question remains: how long will this ceasefire last? And what's the real price of allowing Iran to call the shots over the Strait?

We also get into Israel's ongoing military operations in Lebanon. Netanyahu may be backing the ceasefire with Iran, but he's not backing down from his offensive against Hezbollah. That's right, Israel is still hitting Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, and the humanitarian crisis is worsening by the day. Over a million Lebanese people have been displaced, and the situation is tense with no clear end in sight. Despite the ceasefire with Iran, Israel has made it clear that Lebanon is a whole different ball game.

Let's not forget the role of Iran-backed militias, like the Houthis from Yemen, who are turning up the heat in this conflict. They've joined the fray with missile attacks on Israel, showing just how deep Iran's influence stretches in the region. And while we're talking about missiles and military operations, the US military has been active on the ground, rescuing personnel and sending a message that they're still a major player in this conflict.

We'll also break down the broader economic impacts of this war. With Iran's petrochemical exports taking a major hit, its economic recovery is reliant on China's support. But with sanctions tightening and Iran's oil trade remaining on shaky ground, the future looks grim for the Iranian economy. And the US is already preparing for the next phase—funding requests are in the works, but will Congress bite?

So tune in as we unpack the complex, high-stakes world of the Middle East conflict and dive into what's really going on behind the headlines. As always, we keep things real, sharp, and ready to drop some knowledge.

👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ Get the daily intelligence brief Ryan and Glenn read covering Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, the Middle East, geopolitics, sanctions, military and intel operations. Save a few hours of your time getting ahead of the news cycle at restrictedhandling.com.

👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ Step beyond the headlines and official spin to uncover the deeper realities inside Russia and China's economies. We take a close look at how Moscow and Beijing project power abroad while grappling with fragile foundations at home, from Russia's unsustainable wartime spending to China's faltering growth and anxious workforce. We cut through state narratives to reveal the costs of these economies, costs borne not by leaders, but by ordinary citizens facing higher prices and shrinking opportunities. With insights from data, policy shifts, and on-the-ground reports, we trace how these two authoritarian powers strain to maintain control, and how their choices reverberate across global markets, diplomacy, and the lives of millions. 👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ Get the daily intelligence brief Ryan and Glenn read covering Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, the Middle East, geopolitics, sanctions, military and intel operations. Save a few hours of your time getting ahead of the news cycle at restrictedhandling.com.

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In this episode of The Restricted Handling Podcast, we're diving into some of the biggest stories coming out of Russia and Ukraine, plus the latest political drama in Hungary. We start with Ukraine's unrelenting strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, where the pressure is mounting on Moscow's energy exports. Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk are under fire again, and this time, it's making a significant impact on Russia's ability to fund its military operations. Ukraine's drone tactics are proving effective, and Russia's air defense systems are struggling to keep up.

But it's not all about the frontlines—internally, Russia is facing some serious turbulence. We're talking about Putin's growing domestic issues and how his approval ratings are hitting new lows. Morale within the Russian elite is also taking a hit, and we're seeing cracks forming within Putin's inner circle. Could this signal a shift in Russia's leadership? We break it all down and look at the implications.

Meanwhile, in Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is facing the toughest challenge of his political career. With the April 12 election just around the corner, Orbán is relying on some old-school tactics to stay in power. His relationship with Russia is still a hot-button issue, and accusations of foreign interference are only making things more complicated. Russia's backing could be crucial for Orbán's chances, but will it be enough? We dive into Hungary's election, Orbán's tactics, and what the stakes are for Russia and the EU.

We also update you on Ukraine's innovative drone tech, which is making a huge impact on the battlefield. From mini-jet engines to first-person view drones intercepting Russian UAVs, Ukraine's cutting-edge technology is shifting the game. But there's a hiccup—demand for these mini-jet engines is outpacing supply, and it's putting a serious crunch on Ukraine's drone production. Can they keep up with the demand? We talk about the supply chain issues and how it's affecting Ukraine's ability to ramp up its drone program.

Lastly, we look at Russia's internal problems and how covert operations are disrupting life inside the country. From drone strikes on Russian infrastructure to Ukrainian sabotage operations, the war is hitting Russia on multiple fronts. The FSB has been busy, and the turmoil in Russia's leadership is growing. What's next for Russia as it faces mounting pressure both at home and abroad?

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In today's episode of The Restricted Handling Podcast, we're diving into some of the hottest geopolitical topics coming out of China. From the political to the economic and military, we're covering it all. First up, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is heading to China for the fourth time in as many years. What's driving this deepening relationship? We'll break down how Spain is positioning itself for a stronger economic partnership with Beijing, all while Europe and the US are on high alert. Sanchez's visit is far more than just a diplomatic photo op.

Then we shift gears to China's role as a peace broker. We talk about the latest peace talks between Afghanistan and Pakistan, where China played a key role in de-escalating a conflict that's been brewing for months. You know China likes to stay ahead in regional diplomacy, and this move just solidifies their growing influence in South Asia. How does this affect US interests in the region? Let's break it down.

But wait, the energy game is strong with China, and we're looking at its massive natural gas stockpiles, which have made them a lot more resilient when things get hot in the Middle East. China's ability to weather energy disruptions is unmatched, and we've got all the details on how they've built the world's largest above-ground natural gas reserves. With geopolitical tension heating up, you're going to want to hear how China is making sure its energy security remains rock solid.

Now, let's talk trade. The US-China trade war is still in full swing, but here's the kicker – fraudulent trade practices are on the rise. U.S. businesses are dodging tariffs by manipulating the value of imports, and China's customs loopholes are being exploited like never before. We dive deep into how this is affecting the numbers and what's being done to stop it. Spoiler: not much.

And of course, we couldn't forget the latest military movements in the Taiwan Strait. The PLA's recent air sorties and naval operations around Taiwan are making waves. With tensions ramping up in the region, we'll analyze the strategic implications and what's next for the global balance of power. It's all happening in Taiwan and trust us, you don't want to miss this analysis.

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The clock is ticking, and the stakes have never been higher in the ongoing war with Iran. As President Trump's deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz looms, tensions are reaching a boiling point in the Middle East. In this episode, we dive into the escalating situation, where the U.S. is making its final demands—open the Strait of Hormuz or face devastating strikes on Iran's infrastructure. We're talking about bridges, power plants, and all the civilian targets that are now in the crosshairs of the American military.

But Iran isn't backing down. They've rejected the U.S. ceasefire proposal and are demanding much more than a temporary pause in hostilities. Tehran's 10-point peace plan calls for an end to the war, lifting sanctions, and some serious guarantees to make sure this whole mess doesn't reignite. The U.S. isn't buying it, though. The deadline is set, and Trump's message is clear: if Iran doesn't play ball, everything gets blown to hell.

Meanwhile, Israel's been ramping up its airstrikes, hitting Iran's petrochemical plants and missile sites with precision strikes. The IDF has crippled 85% of Iran's petrochemical exports in just the last week, dealing a massive blow to their military capacity and economic lifeline. Hezbollah and the Houthis are also getting in on the action, firing missiles at Israel, making this a full-blown regional conflict. The Axis of Resistance is stronger than ever, and Israel is on high alert.

But don't forget the U.S. military's role in all this. We saw a dramatic rescue operation recently, where U.S. forces pulled an airman out of the Iranian mountains. This operation is a testament to the U.S.'s operational reach and military capabilities in hostile territory. And the message from the Trump administration? They're not pulling punches. With the war intensifying, special operations and aerial strikes are more frequent, and the U.S. military is keeping a close eye on Iran's every move.

So what happens next? As the U.S. and Israel continue to push their military and diplomatic agendas, Iran's economic struggles are becoming harder to ignore. Sanctions are biting, their oil exports are dwindling, and China's support can only go so far. As tensions hit a fever pitch, we break down the latest moves, the key players involved, and the critical decisions that will shape the future of the Middle East.

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