Telltales

The Rise of TSMC & Substrate's Vision For the Future of Fabs (e2546)


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SHOWNOTESIn this episode of the Telltales Podcast, Mike, Jason, and Hunt walk through the weekly Cash Flow Memo: oil, gas, and US government finances, then dive deep into Taiwan Semiconductor’s history and the future of chip manufacturing, before closing with tech headlines and high-impact healthcare updates. Along the way they connect physics, policy, and business models back to cash flows and the durability of different franchises.[00:00] Intro[00:20] Disclaimer[00:30] Exhibit C: Oil Demand Slows, Supply Investment in Focus[02:55] Exhibit B: Natural Gas, LNG & Power Demand[04:32] Exhibit A: US Deficit, Tariffs & Shutdown Drama[05:29] History of TSMC & Morris Chang’s Foundry Revolution[08:31] TSMC vs the Old Guard: From “Real Men Have Fabs” to Neutral Foundry (p. 3)[10:53] Apple, EUV & TSMC as a Geopolitical Chokepoint (p. 3)[13:45] The Future of Fabs: EUV vs X-Ray & Substrate’s Bet (p. 3)[17:20] Economics, Power Needs & Who Adopts X-Ray Fabs First (p. 3)[22:50] Tech News: Amazon’s Data Center Build-Out & AI Power Constraints (p. 1)[24:05] Uber + Nvidia Robotaxis & The AV “Three-Way Contest” (pp. 1, 3, 20)[25:10] Tesla FSD v13 Test Ride – Getting “Very Good” (p. 1)[25:31] Harrow: Lawsuit Overhang vs Branded-Drug Growth (p. 20)[27:30] Harrow’s Melt Pharmaceuticals Deal & Capital Allocation (p. 20)[28:57] Vertex: Kidney Disease Breakthrough & Fast-Track Timeline (p. 15)[31:16] Vertex’s Non-Opioid Pain Drug & Reimbursement Uncertainty (p. 15)[31:52] FDA Leadership & Regulatory Stability To keep up with future episodes of the Telltales Podcast, download the weekly Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us and subscribe wherever you listen. If you’re enjoying these deep dives into cash-flow-driven investing across energy, technology, and healthcare, consider sharing the show with a friend or colleague.

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.



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TelltalesBy Mike

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