The Rush Lindell Show

This beat no longer re-quotes Rush's prior 'Texas stays red' line or re-stages the Cook Political Report toss-up move as fresh news — it briefly nods to the cold open's admission and treats the toss-up rating as already-established fact before moving to the early-voting deadline (October 19) and teasing three separate polls without naming them yet. The toss-up reclassification and the GOP-favored self-quote are now fully spent; the next beat must name and detail Marist, TPOR, and Big Data Poll rather than re-establishing the toss-up premise.

In this episode, we cover Grading Ourselves: We Called This Wrong, Three Polls, One Story: Talarico Overtakes Paxton, Beyond the Toplines: Independents and the Generic Ballot, and more.

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New Hampshire just blew up the Senate map on Thursday, September 24 — Cook Political Report yanked Sununu-Pappas from Lean Democratic to Toss Up, and Rush Lindell and Reagan aren't letting that slide. This episode is the full seven-seat scorecard the show has been promising for weeks, ranking every race that decides whether Republicans keep their 53-47 majority.

Rush and Reagan grade Alaska and Iowa first, then move into Ohio and the Paxton-Cornyn mixup in Texas before landing on that New Hampshire bombshell. Michigan and Maine get graded as quieter Democratic-leaning risks, and the hosts lock a final ranked order from safest to most vulnerable. The episode closes with dueling predictions: Rush bets New Hampshire flips first, Reagan bets Michigan.

Both picks are on the record now — tune in next episode to see who's right, and let us know which seat you think flips first.

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Tuesday, September 22: Nate Silver just called the political forecasting industry asleep at the wheel — and Rush Lindell and Reagan put his brand-new FLIPR model on trial to see if he's right.

This episode breaks down whether Silver's Senate and House projections actually hold up against the old guard, or if it's just a louder spreadsheet. Topics covered include the FLIPR model's Senate numbers versus prediction markets and Cook Political Report's toss-up list; the historical midterm precedent Silver leans on to argue for a Democratic wave; a head-to-head of three competing House forecasts and why they diverge so sharply; and the pivotal Cook downgrade on New Hampshire that undercuts Silver's

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Thursday, September 17: Rush and Reagan finally admit it on air — the Fed just hiked rates instead of delivering the cut they called for months, and Trump is not happy about it. The vote landed 12-0 for a quarter-point hike to 3.75-4%, the first increase since 2023, with 16 of 18 officials signaling more hikes ahead.

This episode breaks down where the prediction went wrong, why Trump's trade-threat pressure campaign on the Fed didn't force the cave everyone expected, and what his real-time fury at Fed chair Warsh actually reveals about his leverage. Rush and Reagan also translate the decision into real numbers: mortgage rates near 7.37%, rising car prices, and what compounding credit card debt means heading into the holidays. They close by connecting the vote to the midterm mailers already hitting mailboxes, spun in opposite directions depending on who's sending them.

No hedging, no spin — just the call, the miss, and the fallout. Tell us how you think households respond, and catch tomorrow's episode for what's next.

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This beat established the binary being graded tomorrow: a hike to 3.75-4.00% or a surprise hold, with no cut option left on the table despite the show's months-long cut thesis, and closed with an added exchange affirming they won't dodge their own scoreboard. Reagan's insistence on evidence before victory-or-defeat is spent and should not be re-litigated. Next beat must explain the mechanics of the meeting itself, not restate the two outcomes.

In this episode, we cover The Thesis on Trial, The Meeting on the Calendar, Meet the Tell: Warsh at Jackson Hole, and more.

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Thursday, September 10: Trump closes his Dallas convention speech with a jaw-dropping promise — a $5,000 dividend for every American adult, contingent on Republicans sweeping the House and Senate this November. Rush and Reagan grade the bet live, and it's messier than it sounds.

This episode breaks down the actual price tag on the pledge, the trillion-dollar funding gap nobody in the campaign has explained, and whether offering cash tied to an election outcome crosses into bribery territory under federal law. The hosts also dig into Fox News' own on-air skepticism, a budget expert's blunt fact-check, and the ready-made attack ad Democrats can build from a single on-record accusation. Rush calls it a turnout masterstroke; Reagan calls it a panic move dressed up as confidence. Their final grades land on opposite ends of the scale.

Where do you land on this one — genius or desperation? Weigh in, and catch us for Thursday's convention finale coverage.

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On Tuesday, September 8, Rush and Reagan tear into the GOP's first-ever midterm convention in Dallas and ask the question nobody in the party wants answered: is a 100-plus speaker lineup a show of strength or a five-alarm panic dressed up as strategy?

From there, the show gets sharper. Trump's approval slide and the Democratic enthusiasm edge get measured against 2018's messy lessons. Reuters/Ipsos numbers showing 71% disapproval on cost of living force a hard look at whether Dallas's tax-relief pitch even matches what voters are angry about. Politico's list of no-shows and undecideds — including Thune, despite being in town — turns into a real fight over snub versus smart politics. DeSantis's warning about a one-man turnout machine gets tested against Nashville's special election numbers, and Paxton-Talarico's shift to toss-up shows cracks nobody's talking about yet.

Rush and Reagan don't agree on everything here, and they don't pretend to. Tune in tomorrow to see who's right — and tell us where you land.

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The House passed a stopgap funding bill 370-48 on Thursday, September 3, and Rush and Reagan aren't buying the victory lap Speaker Johnson is taking. That lopsided margin looks less like consensus and more like both parties dodging a fight they knew they'd lose before the midterms.

Rush and Reagan break down what's actually in the bill and what it means for the months ahead. They trace this year's two record-breaking shutdowns and call out the identical playbook both parties ran while blaming each other. They replay the near-collapse of the rule vote, where five Republican defections almost sank the bill before two Democrats bailed out the floor. And they dig into the fine print — a blocked OMB grant-review rule, a Border Patrol transfer ban, and the spending add-ons that bought enough votes to get this thing passed.

The real fight lands December 11th, in a lame-duck session with none of the incentives that produced this week's landslide. Reagan's already daring listeners to push back on her take — drop your argument and tune in to see who's right.

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On Tuesday, September 1, Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech puts Rush and Reagan's September rate-cut call in front of a firing squad. The hosts break down exactly what Warsh said, why his use of AI-driven productivity to justify staying tight flips the usual Fed playbook, and how markets reacted in real time as hike odds jumped from a coin flip to over 55% on CNBC and past 66% on CME FedWatch. They dig into the growing split at the top, with Bessent pushing back on a hike while Roger Ferguson calls for two more this year, and translate all of it into what it means for car loans, mortgages, and midterm politics.

Rush stands by his on-record call for a September 16 cut. Reagan isn't so sure. Both agree to grade the call live next episode, loser buys the coffee. Tell us who you think is right before the Fed decides for both of them.

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Thursday, August 27, the Fed might hike into an election and Rush and Reagan are here to admit their rate-cut-saves-the-midterms call may be flat-out wrong.

They walk through how July’s softer inflation data set up their original thesis, then stack that against Kevin Warsh’s bruising confirmation fight and the summer oil spike that flipped market odds toward a September hike. From there, they unpack the tug-of-war between rate-cut hopes, hike fears, and a possible hold, all while a Hormuz scare and a gold rally rattle nerves. Along the way, they bring it back to kitchen-table math: health premiums, borrowing costs, and what the September 16 Fed decision actually means for regular families.

• How their original Fed and gas-price prediction broke as oil ripped higher.
• Why Kevin Warsh’s divided confirmation still shapes today’s rate debate.
• What gold, Hormuz chatter, and debt buybacks signal about market fear.
• How looming ACA premium jumps and Fed policy collide for middle-income households.

Stick around to see how their call looks after September 16, and send in your take on whether the Fed should blink or hold the line.

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