The Schaftlein Report

1) Blake Masters wins Senate Republican Primary in Arizona. He was backed by Trump and Investor Peter Theil. 2) Eric Schmidt wins Senate Republican Primary in Missouri defeating the former Governor backed by Trump. 3) Representative Peter Meijer of Michigan who voted to impeach Trump defeated by former Trump administration official John Gibbs. Democrats contributed $500K to Gibbs campaign. He is now the underdog in the fall election in a moderate left leaning district. 4) The media goes bananas over Kansas upholding a constitutional law in the state allowing abortion by a 60-40 vote. 5) Kari Lake leads by 12K votes for Arizona Governor. She was backed by Trump. 6) Conservative Tuder Dixon wins in Michigan and will take on Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, 7) Joe Kent, a solid conservative who we had on twice at Schaftlein Report came in third place in Washington 8th Congressional district and will not be on the ballot in the fall. 7) Pelosi leaves Taiwan after receiving praise from Republicans and some Democrats along with a muted response from the White House. 7A) Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warns of CCP threat and says it was unacceptable behavior by China and very provocative. U.S. delegation posed no threat to CCP. 8) Inflation Reduction Act contains the following: Price controls on the drug industry 80K new IRS agents Billions on green energy welfare subsidies (remember Solindra?) Higher taxes Higher risk of job losses 9) Household debt now tops $16T for the first time ever up $312B since last month fueled by Inflation. Credit card debt up 13%

1) Do not raise taxes to if you want more supply. Increasing supply will help reduce prices. Democrats are moving in the opposite direction. 1A) Inflation Reduction Act - Sen. Sinema holds the cards. Dave details the problems with the bill. 1B) This follows the CHIPS Act which passed the senate with the goal of bringing chip manufacturing back to the U.S. 2) Oil drops as weak Chinese factory data heightens demand concerns and property slumps. Gasoline prices drop for the last 45 days 2A) 2 Year Notes are prices 30 basis points higher than 10 year notes 3.00% - 2.7%. Is this an indicator of a future recession? Or a current recession? 3) Home prices cooled at a record pace in June as demand falls and supply builds. This is the biggest drop since the 2007-2009 period. It would take 6 more months of drops to bring the market back to normal conditions Rising interest rates currently around 5% and Inflation are leading the slide The Median price is now $416K 4) Americans wages are not keeping up with Inflation costing the average family an extra $460 per month. 76% of Americans are concerned about Inflation and 60% are worried about making rent and mortgage payments. 35% of Americans rent instead of own and the average rent is now $2,000 per month. 72% have not saved enough for retirement 5) How did Government student debt projections go from a profit of $114B to a projected loss of $197B? Easy answer - If the policy is to defer payments way too long and not accrue interest, you have a blow up. If Biden forgives $10K per student, it will cost the government $321B. The total student debt now stands at a whopping $1.7T an average of $30K per borrower. 6) Job openings fell to 10.7M in July from 11.1M in June 7) Federal Reserve to raise Balance Sheet run off to $95B in September. The Balance sheet is currently at $9T.

1) Terrible pictures emerge from Eastern Kentucky flood area. 2) Personal Consumption Expenditures a primary Federal Reserve Inflation gage rose 6.8% last month. It was the biggest 12 month rise since 1982. 2A) Excluding Food and Energy, the PCE increased 4.8% up .1% from May but off the high of 5.3% hit in February. 2B) Production constraints will keep oil prices high for the foreseeable future. 2C) Inflation is a much bigger concern for the Fed versus Recession 3) Senator Sinema has not responded yet to the Manchin-Schumer bill. She previously was against taxing carried interest. Reports indicate she does not want that in the bill and she wants to give Republicans time for Amendments. The Chamber of Commerce and numerous other organizations speak out AGAINST the bill. Inflation Reduction Act - The name is a joke, no they are serious. 4) Gallup Poll has Biden at 38% an All time low down from 41% one month ago. 4A) Rasmussen poll provides better news with Biden at 42%. 4B) The Generic Ballot has Republicans up by 1% 5) The Misery Index which combines Inflation and Unemployment is forecasting a 30-40 seat House Pick up by Republicans. We are more cautious in the range of 15-20. 5A) 45% of Americans blame Biden for Inflation 6) Both Biden and Trump are at 35% Approval on whether they should run in 2024. 7) A veteran Chicago prosecutor resigned citing zero confidence in District Attorney Kim Fox while number of arrests in the city are at a 20 year low, despite the rise in crime. 48 shot over the weekend through Saturday. 8) Biden has a rebound of Covid with no symptoms. Will isolate for 5 days. 9) Pelosi trip to include Taiwan visit on Tuesday. 10) Primaries in Arizona, Missouri, Washington and Michigan tomorrow. 11) Basketball legend Bill Russell dies at 88.

1) Following (1.5%) in 1st Quarter, the debate is on. Is the USA in or approaching a Recession? 1A) Fed hikes rates 75 basis points. Another 100 basis point increases is expected by year end in effort to tame Inflation 2) The Federal Reserve has a $9T balance sheet. It has only been reduced by $16B since June. 2A) the 2 year not is yielding 20 basis points above the 10 year note signaling a slow down ahead and possible recession. 3) Sen. Manchin and Schumer reach agreement on slimmed down energy, climate, prescription drug and tax hike deal. Investments in energy, manufacturing with goal to reduce carbon emissions 40% by 2030, expand subsidies for the Affordable Care Act, Reform environmental Permitting to speed up domestic energy production, 15% minimum corporate tax and cut the deficit by $30B a year for 10 years. EV tax credits included in deal. 3A) What will Sen Sinema do. She has opposed tax increases on carried interest in the past 3B) Generate $739B in Revenue and spend $433B over 10 years. 4) Senate passes CHIPS bill to enhance domestic semiconductor chips. 17 Republicans join Democrats. 5) Warnock leads Walker by 3 and Kemp leads Abrams by 5 in Georgia polls. 6) While liberals scream about climate, Asia and Africa are building over 200 coal fired power plants. Why not focus on Methane which is 50x worse that CO2? 7) Biden offers prisoner swap of arms dealer for basketball player Griner and businessman Whelan.

Guest: Andrew Craqpuchettes

1) Andrew details the massive shift and explains the factors causing the move. Democratic policies are a leading cause. 2) Pending home sales fall across all regions of the country an average of 13% as buyers back away. 3) Federal Reserve officials say they misread Inflation and now plan to correct course with 75 basis point raise today on top of previous raises of 25, 50 and 75 basis points. This will bring the Federal Funds Rate to a range of 2.25% to 2.5%. This is still WELL below the Inflation rate 4) Q-2 GDP forecast ranges from -1.0% to positive 1.2% 5) White House sells another 20M barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. 5A) Sanctions on Russian economy are having only a limited effect as while they are in a recession, it is not a bad as expected due to continued high oil and gas prices 6) Economist Nuriel Roubini aka Dr. Doom says a "mild recession" is a fantasy. 7) In politics, only 20% of New Hampshire voters want Biden to run in 2024. 75% nationwide oppose him running according to a CNN poll. NY Times says "Failing Biden" must not run in 2024. 8) Why are Democratic Senate candidates REFUSING to say a man cannot get pregnant? This is pure Insanity pandering to a radical base 9) ICE is developing a program to give ID cards to Illegal immigrants. More bad policies. Massive amount of drugs confiscated at border. 10) Attorney General Merrick Garland not ruling out charging Trump if evidence supports he violated the law in Lester Holt interview.

1) President Biden - "We are not going into a Recession". Is he correct? 2) Walmart cuts forward guidance - blames inflation effecting its consumers. We have been discussing this for months. 3) Consumer Confidence falls to lowest level since 2-21. Fed poised to hike rates 75 basis points 4) The Average cost of a new car from GM is $50,500. WOW! 5) Oil and Gasoline prices likely to stay high as Refiners face increasing costs for Insurance, maintenance, heating cost to tun the facilities, physical hazards and debt. No new refiners are being build and the last one was over 2 decades ago. 6) 9.3 months supply of new homes are on the market and the normal is 4.5 months. Sales of new homes were down 8.1% last month. Existing home sales fell for the second month in a row. 7) Gas Rationing has been approved by the European Union as Russian supplies are at 20% of capacity. 8) Migrant smuggling is a billion dollar business. 55K migrants escape capture each month. The "Gotaways" are spreading all through out the U.S. 9) Robberies in NYC are up 40%. No bail fees and the NY District Attorney reclassifying crimes where criminals feel emboldened. 10) Trump in D.C. for first time since he left office for a Keynote address to America First Policy Institute 11) Will we ever know the truth about Hunter Biden?

1) NY Times blames Sen. Manchin for Climate Failure while seeking "Radical Transformation". All of the Global Warming fear mongering on Sunday shows with Former VP Al Gore. The problem - They want the U.S. to halt drilling and reduce carbon footprint while China, India and Russia continue to produce oil and other carbon fuels. Americans do NOT want higher gas prices while drilling less. Democrats want Executive Action which Biden has done on a limited basis and they push electing more Democrats - No surprise. 2) Treasury Secretary Yellin - We have a path to avoid a Recession Summers suggests raising taxes to reduce demand and lower inflation. 3) Crime is a MAJOR issue. Biden pushes $33B to Refund the Police. We agree 60 shot in Chicago this weekend killing 3. 3A) Democratic mayors beg for Federal help as migrants arrive in Sanctuary cities from the border. 4) 64% of Democrats do not want Biden to run in 2024. Only 19% of Hispanics support Biden 5) Trump 49% and Gov. DeSantis at 24% in Turning Point straw poll. We'll explain the results. 6) Generic Congressional Ballot average Republicans +3% Trafalger +8% Rasmussen +10% Emerson +1% 7) Russian forces running out of steam? Ukrainian forces outgunned in effort to retake Southern Ukraine? Which is true? 82 Colonels now killed. 60K dead or wounded 8) Russia reduces gas to Europe to 20% of capacity from 40% last week blaming turbine repairs.

CNN Poll 68% believe Biden has the Wrong Priorities. Americans overwhelmingly want the administration to focus on Inflation. White House - No Climate Emergency Declaration, yet but Biden will do Executive Orders on climate? Germany forces businesses to close down as energy is rationed due to Russian gas shortage. Hospitals, schools and food producers are prioritized. Energy prices could triple this year when it gets cold. EU proposes voluntary 15% Natural Gas Cut as Putin threatens to cut off gas flows. 17 Democratic members of congress arrested during abortion protest at Supreme Court. AOC mocked for fake handcuff.

House passes Marriage Equality bill with all Democrats and 50 Republicans which would repeal Defense of Marriage Act in 1996 that defined marriage as a union of a man and a woman. Why are leftists angry over the 22 year old that stopped a mass casualty event? Build Back Better reduced from $3.5T monstrosity to a $40B Prescription Drug Bill. My, my how times have changed. Thank you Senator Manchin!!!

No spending on Climate and raising taxes. Thank you Senator Manchin!!! NYC being over run with asylum seeking migrants with an additional 3,000 arriving on buses from Texas and Arizona. Mayor pleads for help McConnell predicts a crowded field of Republicans running for President Soros donates $1.0M to O'Rourke for TX Governor race. A preview of coming attractions. Massive heat wave in U.S. Drought in CA central valley threatens food supply. 25% comes from there. DeSantis leads Trump in Florida and Michigan polls. Slams Biden for wrong thinking energy policies Japan replaces China as largest holder of U.S. debt with $1.2T versus $1.0T After Biden praises GM for the EV efforts, GM decides to manufacture some cars in Mexico?

1) Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee Vote unanimously down a plan to toughen sentences for child sex trafficking 2) A group of radical House Democrats propose adding 4 Supreme Court Justices. Don't worry, most Democrats oppose the idea 3) Senator Joe Manchin crushes the Global Minimum Taxation Rate proposed by Democrats 4) Democrats Open Border Policy forces Texas and Arizona Governors to bus Illegals to Washington D.C. Mayor pleads for help. 5) Radical Climate Democrats push crazy Climate Fantasy fueled by Greeniacs promoting Green New Deal.Americans overwhelmingly oppose this. 6) Democrats push the Liberal World Order hoping for $10 a gallon for gasoline. 7) Liberal policies on Crime cause arrests in only 12% of cases in Chicago. Fewer crimes are reported. Police forced to pull back for fear of prosecution has lead to massive crime wave here and in other deep blue cities. Sacramento homeless greater than S.F up 67% to over 5,000 people, robbery up 42%, rape 50%. 8) We are at the one year anniversary where Biden said Inflation is "Temporary" 9) DeSantis war chest at $45M