The Schatz & Tanier NFL Podcast

By FTN MediaSports Football

The Schatz & Tanier NFL Podcast episodes

October 05 NFL Week 4 Recap: Rams Statement Win, Patriots Upset Bills & DVOA Top 12
Week 4 gave us statement wins, close calls, major injuries and another shakeup in the NFL hierarchy.
Aaron Schatz and Mike Tanier recap the biggest games from the weekend using DVOA, Post-Game Win Expectancy, playoff simulations and matchup data to separate what actually happened from what the final scores might suggest.
🏈 Rams 24, Eagles 20
Los Angeles controlled the efficiency battle despite the close score, finishing with a 96% PGWE. The Eagles went 0-for-12 on third down, averaged just 3.0 yards per play, and lost Saquon Barkley and Quinyon Mitchell during the game. The result also reshapes the NFC East picture, with Dallas now leading FTN’s division simulations.
🏈 Patriots 29, Bills 26
Was this the upset everyone saw coming? Buffalo blitzed Drake Maye 21 times but recorded only one sack, while New England finished with a 60% PGWE. The Bills still lead the AFC East in most simulations and remain the conference favorite.
🏈 Chiefs 30, Raiders 27
Las Vegas kept settling for field goals and paid for it late. A Dareke Young kick-return fumble helped Kansas City create separation, while Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer both produced strong receiving lines. Despite the win, the Chiefs finished with only a 62% PGWE.
🏈 49ers 24, Broncos 14
San Francisco remains on top of the DVOA rankings and still has not allowed a sack through four games. The 49ers’ offense exploded in the fourth quarter after Denver lost Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss, while questions continue about Denver’s slow starts offensively.
📊 Reverse PGWE Games
Aaron and Mike examine the games where the result didn’t match the underlying performance, including Packers-Buccaneers, plus three near 50/50 outcomes: Browns-Steelers, Giants-Cardinals and Cowboys-Texans.
That also leads into a bigger discussion about Houston and Tampa Bay as two of the strongest 0-4 teams by DVOA since 1978.
📈 DVOA Top 12 After Week 4
San Francisco stays No. 1, Jacksonville sits No. 2, and Kansas City, Buffalo and Baltimore round out the top five. The guys also discuss Minnesota’s extreme offense/defense split and Carolina posting the best offensive DVOA of the week.
🏈 Monday Night Football Preview: Falcons at Saints
The show closes with Atlanta-New Orleans, including DVOA rankings, playoff odds and the Saints -1.5 / 47.5 total.
Topics include:
Rams-Eagles fallout, Patriots-Bills upset, Chiefs-Raiders, 49ers-Broncos, injury updates, reverse PGWE games, the best 0-4 teams by DVOA, updated DVOA Top 12 and Falcons-Saints on Monday night.
What was your biggest takeaway from Week 4? Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com
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34 min
October 01 Week 4 Preview: Undefeated Chiefs-Raiders, Rams-Eagles & the Biggest Matchup Edges
Aaron Schatz and Mike Tanier are back to break down the biggest matchups of NFL Week 4, starting with the latest league news as Dallas acquires Joey Porter Jr. for a 2028 second-round pick.
Then it’s a full slate of matchup analysis using FTN DVOA, playoff probabilities, personnel tendencies, blocking metrics, injury reports and betting lines.
The show opens with Rams-Eagles, where Matthew Stafford and the Rams’ passing game face a Philadelphia defense that has struggled against the pass, while Puka Nacua is expected to return.
Next, Patriots-Bills brings one of the week’s biggest Super Bowl-odds swings. Buffalo enters 3-0 with the No. 2 offense in DVOA, while New England’s defense has been much stronger against the pass than the run.
In Jaguars-Bengals, Jacksonville enters No. 2 overall in DVOA, but Joe Burrow’s success attacking the middle of the field could test one of the Jaguars’ biggest defensive weaknesses.
The guys also preview Broncos-49ers, including why blitzing Brock Purdy could be a dangerous idea, before turning to the undefeated Chiefs-Raiders AFC West showdown.
Finally, Lions-Panthers closes the show, with Carolina dealing with major secondary and offensive injuries while Detroit brings one of the
NFL’s better pass-protection units into Charlotte.
Games covered: Rams at Eagles, Patriots at Bills, Jaguars at Bengals, Broncos at 49ers, Chiefs at Raiders and Lions at Panthers.
Plus: Week 4 injury updates, DVOA matchup splits, red-zone efficiency, pass and run blocking trends, playoff implications and the betting lines that shape the weekend. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com
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41 min
September 28 NFL Week 3 Recap: Contenders Emerging, 0-3 Panic & Biggest Surprises
Week 3 is in the books, and the results didn’t always match what the underlying numbers say should have happened.
Aaron Schatz and Mike Tanier break down the biggest takeaways from NFL Week 3, using DVOA, DAVE and Post-Game Win Expectancy (PGWE) to separate the final scores from how teams actually performed.
🏈 Broncos 30, Rams 26
Los Angeles finished with an 86% Post-Game Win Expectancy despite losing in Denver. Aaron and Mike examine the Rams’ 15 penalties, the Broncos’ five penalties and the controversial late defensive pass interference call involving Josh Wallace and Pat Bryant. The Schatz & Tanier NFL Podcast…
🏈 Ravens 34, Cowboys 31
Baltimore escaped Dallas in one of Week 3’s biggest games as both teams continue to establish where they belong in the early-season NFL hierarchy. The Schatz & Tanier NFL Podcast…
🏈 Jaguars 35, Patriots 6
Jacksonville delivered one of the weekend’s strongest statements with a dominant win over New England. The Jaguars now sit No. 2 in DVOA through Week 3, trailing only San Francisco. The Schatz & Tanier NFL Podcast… The Schatz & Tanier NFL Podcast…
🔥 THE REVERSE PGWE FESTIVAL
Sometimes the team that played the better game doesn’t get the win.
• Panthers had 68% PGWE in a 21-18 loss to Cleveland
• Texans had 66% PGWE in a 19-17 loss to Indianapolis
• Seahawks had 55% PGWE in a 33-31 loss to Washington
• Buffalo’s 24-16 win over the Chargers was not a reverse-PGWE game — Bills finished at 55% The Schatz & Tanier NFL Podcast…
📊 DVOA & DAVE TOP 10
Aaron and Mike reveal the updated league hierarchy after three weeks. San Francisco sits No. 1 in both DVOA and DAVE, while Jacksonville has surged to No. 2 in DVOA. The Rams remain No. 3 in DAVE despite ranking No. 10 in DVOA, creating an interesting early-season debate between performance and projection. The Schatz & Tanier NFL Podcast…
🏈 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Eagles at Bears
The show closes by previewing Philadelphia-Chicago. The Eagles enter 13th in DVOA, while the Bears rank 14th, with Chicago set to start Case Keenum at quarterback. The Schatz & Tanier NFL Podcast…
What was your biggest takeaway from Week 3?
Subscribe for weekly NFL analysis from Aaron Schatz and Mike Tanier, featuring DVOA, DAVE, playoff projections, Post-Game Win Expectancy and deeper analysis of what the final score doesn't always tell you. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com
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39 min
September 24 NFL Week 3 Preview: Who’s For Real? Biggest Games, DVOA & Playoff Stakes
Week 3 could tell us a lot about which NFL teams are actually contenders — and which early-season starts we shouldn't believe just yet.
Aaron Schatz and Mike Tanier break down five of the biggest games of NFL Week 3, using FTN DVOA, playoff probabilities and early-season performance data to identify the matchups that could have the biggest impact on the playoff picture.
🏈 Texans at Colts
Two 0-2 AFC South teams enter a game with major playoff implications. Houston and Indianapolis are both searching for their first win, making this one of the biggest early-season swing games on the schedule.
🏈 Patriots at Jaguars
Drake Maye and New England are coming off their first win of the season, while Jacksonville tries to respond after letting a double-digit lead get away in Denver. Which 1-1 team takes the next step?
🏈 Ravens at Cowboys
Two of the NFL's highest-rated offenses by DVOA meet in Dallas. Can Baltimore rebound from a fourth-quarter collapse, or will Dak Prescott and the Cowboys build off a four-touchdown Week 2 performance?
🏈 Raiders at Saints — The “For Real” Bowl
Las Vegas enters 2-0 behind Kirk Cousins and a defense making plays in every phase. New Orleans just pulled off a dramatic comeback in Baltimore. It's time to find out how much of these early-season starts we should believe.
🏈 Rams at Broncos — Sunday Night Football
Matthew Stafford and the Rams bounced back in a big way in Week 2, while Denver erased a double-digit deficit to earn its first victory. FTN's numbers see these teams very similarly entering a major prime-time matchup.
Aaron and Mike break down DVOA, playoff swings, matchup advantages, Week 2 trends and the numbers that matter most heading into Week 3.
Games covered:
Texans at Colts
Patriots at Jaguars
Ravens at Cowboys
Raiders at Saints
Rams at Broncos
Which Week 3 matchup tells us the most about who is actually for real?
Subscribe for weekly NFL analysis from Aaron Schatz and Mike Tanier, including DVOA, playoff odds, projections and data-driven breakdowns throughout the 2026 season. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com
for information about our collection and use of personal data for
advertising.
34 min
September 17 Who Makes a Statement in Week 2? NFL Preview, DVOA & Playoff Odds
Week 2 is here, and several of the biggest games on the schedule could already have major playoff and Super Bowl implications.
Aaron Schatz and Mike Tanier break down the most important matchups of NFL Week 2, using FTN DVOA, DAVE, playoff odds and matchup data to explain what matters most heading into the weekend.
🏈 Lions at Bills
Two 1-0 teams meet Thursday night in one of the biggest early-season games for Super Bowl odds. Buffalo enters Week 2 with the No. 2 offense in DVOA, while Detroit looks to keep pace in a loaded NFC race.
🏈 Vikings at Bears
Chicago’s offense enters the week No. 1 in DVOA, but Minnesota brings one of the league’s most aggressive defenses and a Week 1 pressure rate over 50%. Which side controls this NFC North matchup?
🏈 Bengals at Texans
Cincinnati starts 1-0, while Houston is already facing pressure after an 0-1 start. The Texans remain highly rated by FTN DAVE despite ranking near the bottom of the league in defensive DVOA after Week 1.
🏈 Commanders at Cowboys
Both teams enter at 0-1 with an early divisional game carrying major playoff implications. Dallas showed a strong offensive profile in Week 1, but its defense remains one of the biggest questions heading into this matchup.
🏈 Colts at Chiefs
Kansas City enters with one of the NFL’s highest-ranked defenses by DVOA, while Indianapolis is trying to rebound after a rough Week 1 showing on both sides of the ball.
🏈 Giants at Rams — Monday Night Football
New York’s offense impressed in Week 1, while Los Angeles struggled badly by DVOA. But FTN’s DAVE model still sees the Rams as one of the league’s stronger teams going forward.
Aaron and Mike break down the numbers, matchup advantages, playoff swings and biggest Week 2 storylines across the NFL.
Games covered:
Lions at Bills
Vikings at Bears
Bengals at Texans
Commanders at Cowboys
Colts at Chiefs
Giants at Rams
Which Week 2 game are you watching closest?
Subscribe for weekly NFL analysis, DVOA, projections, playoff odds and data-driven breakdowns throughout the 2026 season. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com
for information about our collection and use of personal data for
advertising.
34 min
September 14 Week 1 Review: Not Jumping to Conclusions
Week 1 is in the books — now it’s time to figure out what actually matters.
Aaron Schatz and Mike Tanier break down the biggest takeaways from the opening week of the 2026 NFL season, separating real trends from Week 1 overreactions.
One of the biggest questions: Are the Arizona Cardinals for real? Kyler Murray and Arizona are under the microscope as Aaron and Mike evaluate what Week 1 tells us about their outlook moving forward.
They also dive into the performances, teams and results that changed their expectations after the first full week of NFL action, using advanced metrics, projections and matchup analysis to determine what deserves our attention — and what should be ignored.
🏈 Topics include:
• Arizona’s Week 1 performance and outlook
• Kyler Murray and the Cardinals offense
• Biggest Week 1 winners and losers
• Teams that changed our expectations
• Early playoff and contender takeaways
• What’s real vs. what’s an overreaction
• Key trends to watch heading into Week 2
Which Week 1 result changed your opinion the most? Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com
for information about our collection and use of personal data for
advertising.
34 min
September 10 2026 NFL Week 1 Preview: The Games That Could Change the Playoff Race
NFL Week 1 is here — and some of the biggest games on the schedule could immediately reshape the playoff and Super Bowl picture.
Aaron Schatz and Mike Tanier break down the opening week of the 2026 NFL season, starting with a review of New England vs. Seattle before turning their attention to four major Week 1 matchups.
🏈 49ers vs. Rams in Australia
What does the opener mean for two NFC West contenders? A Rams win pushes their projected Super Bowl chances from 12.1% to 18.6%, while San Francisco’s playoff outlook swings dramatically depending on the result.
🏈 Bills at Texans
Two of the top teams in our AFC projections meet immediately. Buffalo and Houston enter Week 1 with major playoff implications already on the line.
🏈 Packers at Vikings
An NFC North matchup with an early opportunity for either team to gain ground in what could become one of the league’s most competitive divisions.
🏈 Commanders at Eagles
Can Washington make an early statement against Philadelphia, or will the Eagles immediately reinforce their status as one of the NFC’s top contenders?
Aaron and Mike dig into the matchups, projections, playoff implications, key numbers and the biggest questions heading into the first full week of NFL action.
Games covered:
49ers vs. Rams
Bills at Texans
Packers at Vikings
Commanders at Eagles
New England vs. Seattle
Who makes the biggest statement in Week 1?
Subscribe for weekly NFL analysis, DVOA, projections, playoff odds and data-driven breakdowns throughout the 2026 season. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com
for information about our collection and use of personal data for
advertising.
32 min
September 03 Who Wins the AFC West in 2026? Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers & Raiders Preview | Rotoworld Writer Rivers McCown Joins the Show
Who wins the AFC West in 2026?
Aaron Schatz and Mike Tanier are joined by Rivers McCown to break down the Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders heading into the 2026 NFL season.
Can Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City remain on top of the division? Are the Broncos ready to make another jump? Can the Chargers push the Chiefs for the AFC West crown? And what should we expect from the Raiders this season?
The crew dives into the biggest offseason changes, roster strengths and weaknesses, key players, projected team outlooks and the major questions that could decide one of the NFL’s most interesting divisions.
🏈 Teams Covered:
Kansas City Chiefs
Denver Broncos
Los Angeles Chargers
Las Vegas Raiders
Who do you have winning the AFC West in 2026?
Subscribe for more NFL division previews, projections, analytics and in-depth football analysis throughout the season

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
31 min
August 27 Who Wins the NFC West in 2026? Rams, Seahawks, 49ers & Cardinals Preview
Aaron Schatz and Mike Tanier break down the Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals as they preview the division heading into the new NFL season.
From Matthew Stafford and the Rams’ championship aspirations to Seattle’s pursuit of another huge season, San Francisco’s outlook and Arizona’s path forward, Aaron and Mike examine the biggest questions surrounding all four teams.
They break down each roster, key offseason changes, strengths and weaknesses, potential breakout areas and what it all means for the 2026 NFC West race.
Teams covered: Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com
for information about our collection and use of personal data for
advertising.
35 min
August 20 AFC North Breakdown: Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, and Browns OH MY!
Aaron Schatz and Mike Tanier break down the AFC North for the 2026 NFL season!
The DVOA creator and veteran NFL analyst dive deep into every team in the division — AFC North: Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, and Browns.
Get expert analysis on:
Key offseason moves and roster changes
Standout players and storylines for each team
Projected standings and division winner predictions
Advanced stats insights you won’t hear anywhere else! Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com
for information about our collection and use of personal data for
advertising.
31 min

About The Schatz & Tanier NFL Podcast

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Your go-to NFL podcast is here, hosted by DVOA creator Aaron Schatz and NFL legend Mike Tanier. Each week, Aaron and Mike round up the NFL action, offering unique insights and advanced stats that you…