The Second Cold War Observatory

In this episode, Dr. Shahar Hameiri and Dr. Lee Jones discuss the political economy and financing behind global infrastructure development, with a focus on China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The discussion explores the driving forces behind Chinese infrastructure investment, while addressing the crucial question of why American and European initiatives such as Global Gateway and the Program for Global Infrastructure and Investment struggle to compete with the BRI. We discuss dynamics of public and private finance, the role of public-private partnerships, and the challenges private investors face. Importantly, this episode reveals the U.S. Development Finance Corporation’s increasing reliance on private capital, and the decline of the construction sector in the U.S. economy. This comprehensive view shows how different financing and development models shape the global infrastructure landscape, how infrastructure development has evolved into its current state, and novel fields of competition, such as undersea Internet cables.

Hameiri and Jones are co-authors of Fractured China: How State Transformation is Shaping China's Rise (Cambridge University Press, 2021).

Dr. Hameiri is Professor in the School of Political Science and International Relation at The University of Queensland. A political economist with diverse research interests, traversing the fields of security, development and aid, governance, political geography and international relations, he is interested in understanding the evolving nature of statehood and political agency under conditions of globalisation. His books include International Intervention and Local Politics (Cambridge University, 2017), Governing Borderless Threats: Non-Traditional Security and the Politics of State Transformation (Cambridge University Press, 2015), and Regulating Statehood (Palgrave Macmillan, 2010), and he is a co-editor for the fourth edition of The Political Economy of Southeast Asia: Poliltics and Uneven Development Under Hyperglobalisation (Palgrave Macmillan, 2020). X: @ShaharHameiri.

Dr. Jones is Professor in International Politics at the Queen Mary University of London. Lee specialises in political economy and international relations, focusing on the politics of intervention, security, and governance, with a particular interest in social conflict and the transformation of states. Much of his work focuses on Southeast Asia and China. Lee regularly advises the British and other governments and civil society organisations and has often appeared in the national and international media. A fellow of the Higher Education Academy, he also sits on the board of Palgrave’s series Studies in the Political Economy of Public Policy, and the ESRC’s peer review college. For further information see www.leejones.tk.

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What is the role of India in the Second Cold War (SCW) in South Asia? How do local histories, internal politics, and subnational dynamics shape relations with India and China? How does connectivity and infrastructure become a tool for geopolitical competition in the region, from China’s BRI to India’s infrastructural collaboration, and the US’s Millennium Challenges Corporation? On this episode we sit down with Dr. Dinesh Paudel and Aaron Magunna to answer these questions and discuss how it unfolds through cases in the Maldives and Nepal. A wide-ranging conversation, we learn about a rising India, India-China tensions, and how local politics shape the regional SCW.

Dr. Dinesh Paudel is a Professor in the Sustainable Development Department at Appalachian State University. His current research focuses on exploring the relationships and entanglements between the rising Asian economies, growing environmental degradations and rapidly expanding infrastructure in the Himalaya. He has written extensively on infrastructure and the Belt and Road Initiative in Nepal.

Aaron Magunna is a PhD student at the University of Queensland in Australia. His research focuses primarily on how countries in Asia, particularly India and Japan, respond to China-US competition by adapting their security, trade, and technology policies.

Resources:

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This episode features scholars who research East European countries situated on geopolitical border zones and characterized by long-term external economic dependence. Current geopolitical tensions and geoeconomic restructuring are rapidly transforming the maneuver space of local regimes. What do these positions tell us about third-country maneuvering and its limits in the current global context? How are these positions transformed in the context of global industrial restructuring? And what theoretical considerations do they highlight as necessary to grasp the potential impacts of geoeconomic transformation? 

To answer these questions, we are joined by several guests:

You can read the corresponding essays on Dispatches of the Second Cold War Observatory.

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In this episode, we look to history to consider areas of potential areas for US-China environmental politics and cooperation today. Dr. Vladimir Jankovic discussed US-Soviet scientific cooperation in the 1980s, early climate cooperation, and the 1989 Sundance Symposium on Global Climate Change dubbed ''greenhouse glasnost'' by its sponsors. What are the legacies of this conference and partnership, and how did they move the needle on our understanding of climate change? What happened after the collapse of the USSR? What were the lasting impacts on the scientific field, and what might be the implications for climate and environmental (geo)politics today?

Dr. Vladimir Jankovic is a historian of atmospheric sciences who writes on the cultural history of meteorology, medical environmentalism, and contemporary urban climatology in relation to urban design. His research focuses on scientific, cultural, and social engagement with weather and climate since the 1700s. He is currently president of the International Commission for the History of Meteorology and a Reader in History of Science and Atmospheric Humanities at the Centre for the History of Science, Technology and Medicine (CHSTM), University of Manchester. 

In 2005, he was featured on Storms of War, the Discovery Channel’s five-episode documentary on warfare and the weather. He is the author of Reading the Skies (Chicago, 2000), Confronting the Climate (New York, 2010), Intimate Universality (with Fleming and Cohen, 2005), Weather Local Knowledge and Everyday Life (with Barbosa, 2009), and Klima (with Fleming, Chicago, 2011).

Links and resources from the episode:

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In this episode, we sit down with Dr. Tim Zajontz to discuss growing geopolitical and geoeconomic competition across infrastructure, economic corridors, and resource extraction in Africa, specifically Uganda, Tanzania, and Zambia. 

Dr. Zajontz is a Lecturer in Global Political Economy at the Dresden University of Technology, Germany. He is also a Research Fellow at the Centre for International and Comparative Politics at Stellenbosch University, South Africa. His research focuses on Africa’s international relations and political economy, particularly Africa-China and Africa-EU relations. Before joining academia, Tim worked in several advisory positions in German and EU politics. He is also the co-founder of a German not-for-profit that collaborates with partners in the social and health sectors in Uganda. Tim currently researches geopolitical developments on the African continent and the political economy of competing connectivity initiatives in Africa and has co-edited a book on Africa’s Railway Renaissance, which was recently published. 

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In this episode, we talk with Dr. Ksenija Hanaček about her research on the Polar Silk Road and extractivism and environmental conflicts in the Arctic region. Dr. Hanaček is a political ecologist and a Margarita Salas postdoctoral fellow at Global Development Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Helsinki and at Institute for Science, Technology and Environment Global (ICTA), at the Autonomous University of Barcelona, where she is working on the Atlas of Environmental Justice. Her research focuses on environmental conflicts due to extractivist and mega infrastructure projects in the Arctic region. Current research includes commodity frontiers, climate coloniality and green extractivism, the Belt and Road Initiative’s expansion to the Arctic (“Polar Silk Road”), nuclear supply chain and environmental justice struggles in post-Soviet spaces, and coal extraction conflicts in southwestern Siberia. 

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This episode centers on competition in two technology sectors in Argentina: nuclear energy and smart cities. While they may seem like disparate sectors, Dr. Maximiliano Vila Seoane shows how both illustrate the interest of Argentine state actors in cooperating with Chinese counterparts in science & technology, specifically in areas that used to be dominated by US or Western partners. He offers a nuanced and localized understanding of how competition in these sectors is unfolding in various provinces and cities in Argentina. 

Dr. Maximiliano Vila Seoane is a researcher at the National Scientific and Technical Research Council in Argentina. He is a professor at the School of Politics & Government of the National University of San Martín. His interests span cybersecurity, international politics, and development. Currently, he is interested in how the intensifying rivalry between the US and China is transforming digital capitalism, particularly in Latin America.

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In this episode, we talk with Dr. Andrea Polio about his research on Chinese technology companies in Nairobi, Kenya, and how African cities have emerged as proxy arenas where different modes of international relations are given effect through the development of infrastructure. He discusses how African cities are crucial actors and sites of the geopolitics of digital infrastructure, which will increasingly be one of the key geopolitical arenas of the 21st century as the US, China, and the EU compete for global influence with new programs of development finance. In a related paper, Dr. Pollio argues that urban areas are already beholden to competition between different state actors and units of capital for infrastructure networks in the global south. In this context, Africa's fast-growing metropolises have emerged as testbeds of shifts in the geopolitics of information towards multipolar magnets of power.

Dr. Andrea Pollio is a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Fellow jointly at the Department of Urban and Regional Studies of the Polytechnic of Turin and at the African Centre for Cities of the University of Cape Town, where his research addresses the impact of private Chinese technology companies in Nairobi's Silicon Savannah. His broader work explores the interface between technology economies, development, and urbanization in Africa. He has also studied the impact of private Chinese capital on two East-African cities (Addis Ababa and Nairobi) that have emerged as key destinations for the urbanization of Chinese investments in the continent.

Twitter: @andretwp

Related Links:

Cities as Geopolitical Testbeds of Digital Infrastructure by Andrea Polio 

Acceleration, development and technocapitalism at the Silicon Cape of Africa, by Andrea Pollio in Economy and Space

Urban statecraft: The governance of transport infrastructures in African cities, by Liza Rose Cirolia and Jesse Harber in Urban Studies

IMF Sub-Caharan African Regional Outlook

The geopolitics of debt in Africa in the Review of African Political Economy 

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In this episode, Seth and Jess are joined by fellow Second Cold War Observatory research associate and professor Nick Jepson. The conversation explores debt in the context of China-US rivalry while considering the nature of the current crisis/impasse and how we arrive here. It then turns to cases in Sri Lanka and Laos to explain the drivers of national debt and join many others who have debunked 'debt trap diplomacy. Nick concludes with thoughts on the border global financial system, where it might be heading, and how this looks in a world-historical context.

Dr. Nick Jepson is the Leverhulme Early Career Fellow at the Global Development Institute and School of Environment, Education and Development at the University of Manchester. He studies the political-economic implications of the rise of China and is the author of In China's Wake (Columbia UP). His current project focuses on China's growing role as a financier of development projects across the world via the BRI.

Related Links:

Nick Jepson's book: In China's Wake How the Commodity Boom Transformed Development Strategies in the Global South

Daniela Gabor. 2021. The Wall Street Consensus. Development and Change, 52(3).

Jepson, Nick. 2021. Hidden in Plain Sight: Chinese Development Finance in Central and Eastern Europe. Development and Change, 52(5).

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A conversation with Marcelo Saguier (Director of the Area of International Studies, National University of San Martín) on the relationship between domestic politics and geopolitics surrounding resource extraction in Argentina. Argentina is a leading producer in the minerals and petroleum sectors. With the global energy transition, countries have ramped up investment in renewable energy sources, particularly the critical minerals used in Lithium batteries. In this episode, Saguier explores the mining–development nexus in Argentina. As both Chinese and American firms increase engagement in resource extraction, Saguier suggests that Argentina will not be forced to choose between the two but rather actively avoid it.

Dr. Marcelo Saguier works at the School of Politics and Government, National University of San Martin (UNSAM). He is a researcher at Argentina's National Scientific and Technical Research Council. His research focuses on the international political economy of the environment.

Related Links:

Batteries Are the Battlefield: The next geopolitical contest may be over green technology, and China, for now, is poised to win control of those supply chains. in Foreign Policy 

Canadian Mining Investments in Argentina and the Construction of a Mining–Development Nexus, in Latin American Policy by Saguier and Peinado.

Dams, Chinese investments, and EIAs: A race to the bottom in South America? in Ambio by Gerlak, Saguier, Mills-Novoa, Fearnside & Albrecht.

The IMF’s top 10 biggest debtors 

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