Welcome back to The Shivers Report.

In this episode, Nick and Keegan break down the real numbers from January 2026 compared to January 2025 across the Portland Metro, Polk & Marion Counties, and Clark County—and there are some surprising shifts.

For Portland Metro:
• New listings down 4.1%
• Closed sales down 8.4%
• Median price down 5%
• Inventory up 6%
• Market time increasing

A 5% median price drop is a big deal—and could signal the first meaningful nominal depreciation we’ve seen since 2010–2011. Nick believes affordability pressures are finally catching up to the market.

In Polk & Marion Counties:
• New listings up 16.3%
• Pending sales up 5.8%
• Median price down 2.2%
• Closed sales down 17%

And in Clark County:
• New listings up 18.5%
• Pending sales up 13%
• Median price up 3.8%
• Average price up nearly 11% (likely due to higher-end homes selling)
• Market time up 14 days

We also discuss:
• Why 62% of homes are seeing price adjustments
• Why the overall market is leaning buyer—but certain submarkets remain competitive
• Why new construction incentives (averaging nearly 10% nationally) don’t show up in median price data
• How the Pacific Northwest differs from high-building states like Florida and Texas
• Why 2026 may bring flat-to-slight depreciation rather than appreciation
• Why we still expect more transactions this spring—even if prices stay pressured

Bottom line: inventory is creeping up, affordability is tight, and resale pricing is softening—but demand hasn’t disappeared.

People may soon “bite the bullet” and move, even if rates and prices don’t dramatically fall. And with our team posting the highest number of January listings we’ve ever had, activity is already building.

2026 won’t be a boom year—but it won’t be a crash either. It’s shaping up to be a strategic market.

Welcome back to The Shivers Report.

In a move that shocked a lot of people, President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh—arguably one of the more hawkish and independent voices tied to the Federal Reserve. A pick that seems, on the surface, opposite of what Trump has been signaling for months.

So what’s the strategy? And more importantly… what does it mean for real estate?

In this episode, Nick and Keegan break down:
• Why Kevin Warsh’s history of opposing bailouts makes him a surprising choice
• Whether back-channel conversations shaped this nomination
• The long-standing debate over Federal Reserve independence
• Why excessive government intervention can create long-term instability
• How chaos and headline volatility are affecting mortgage rates right now
• Why the housing market dislikes destabilization even more than high rates
• Whether this pick could lead to a more stable, less volatile market

Nick shares why he believes less intervention often leads to healthier long-term markets—and why volatility, not just rates, is today’s biggest concern.

Bottom line: the housing market thrives on stability. If this nomination leads to steadier policy and fewer dramatic swings, it could calm one of the most unpredictable real estate environments in decades.

Is this a strategic move toward stability—or just another headline in a volatile year?

Let’s break it down.

Welcome back to The Shivers Report.

Housing affordability is one of the biggest debates in America right now. But here’s the uncomfortable truth: whether you think prices should drop often depends on whether you already own a home.

In this episode, Nick and Keegan Shivers tackle the real question—do home values actually need to fall to make housing affordable again? Or is there a smarter solution?

We talk about:
• Why homeowners don’t want prices to drop—but renters often do
• How lowering interest rates impacts monthly payments more than headline prices
• Why 50-year mortgages may improve payments—but hurt long-term wealth
• The historical reality: since 1990, only 2007–2011 saw sustained depreciation
• Why waiting for prices to “crash” has rarely been a winning strategy
• The difference between U.S. home prices (~$375K average) and Canada (~$700K+)
• Why 100% homeownership isn’t realistic—or even desirable
• How peak U.S. homeownership hit 69% in 2021 and now sits around 65%
• Why artificially slashing interest rates could re-inflate the market
• The real long-term solution: deregulation and more construction

Nick argues that instead of manipulating rates, policymakers should focus on supply. On the West Coast, bureaucracy, permits, and red tape can account for up to 28% of construction costs—potentially adding over $100,000 to the price of a home. Remove that, and affordability improves without crashing values.

Bottom line: affordability isn’t just about prices going down. It’s about supply going up.

Welcome back to The Shivers Report.

If you’re confused about today’s housing market, you’re not alone. One side thinks we’re still in 2021 with multiple offers and sky-high pricing. The other thinks we’re back in 2009 with a 40% crash.

In this episode, Nick and Keegan Shivers break down what’s actually happening in 2025—and why the truth sits somewhere in the middle.

We talk about:
• Why 62% of homes had price reductions in 2025 (and why that’s actually close to 2019 “normal”)
• The danger of sellers using 2021–2022 as their pricing benchmark
• Why buyers expecting a 2009-style crash are likely waiting for something that isn’t happening
• What a balanced market really looks like—and where it’s still a buyer’s vs. seller’s market
• Why markets like West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, Miami, San Antonio, and Dallas are seeing heavy price reductions due to massive pandemic-era construction
• How red tape and permitting in the Pacific Northwest are limiting new supply
• The difference between nominal pricing and real pricing (after inflation)
• Why real appreciation may be flat—or negative—this year

Nick and Keegan also challenge agents to step up. With 71% of agents not selling a single home, education and expectation-setting matter more than ever.

Bottom line: this isn’t a crash. It’s a reset back to normal market dynamics.

The agents who understand supply, demand, pricing psychology, and real data will win. The ones clinging to 2021—or hoping for 2009—will struggle.

Welcome back to The Shivers Report.

The real estate industry has changed—and a lot of agents didn’t change with it. In this episode, Nick and Keegan Shivers break down the reality of today’s market and why nearly 70% of agents didn’t sell a single home in 2025.

The days of easy listings, multiple offers, and accidental success are over. Real estate is a business, not a side hustle—and the agents who survive 2026 will be the ones who treat it that way.

We talk about:

• Why the low barrier to entry created unprepared agents

• How bringing solutions beats simply putting a sign in the yard

• Why experience and mentorship matter more than years licensed

• What actually generates business right now

• How AI will separate the next wave of top agents

Bottom line: real estate is a full-contact sport. The agents who win are the ones willing to learn, adapt, and do the work.

Welcome back to The Shivers Report.

In this episode, Nick and Keegan Shivers tackle a growing question in today’s housing conversation: Should the government be involved in real estate—and if so, how far is too far?

From proposed bans on investors buying homes to legislation that restricts how sellers can market their properties, government intervention in housing is expanding. Nick shares where he draws the line—arguing strongly against policies that dictate how homeowners must sell their property, while also explaining why certain transparency-focused regulations can protect consumers.

We break down:

• Proposed and existing examples of government intervention in housing

• Why banning private listings sets a dangerous precedent

• The difference between regulation for transparency vs. control

• When government involvement helps—and when it hurts homeowners

Bottom line: protecting consumers matters, but forcing homeowners to sell a certain way crosses a line.

Welcome back to The Shivers Report.

Predicting the real estate market isn’t easy—and anyone who tells you otherwise isn’t being honest. In this episode, Nick and Keegan Shivers revisit and update their 2026 real estate predictions, breaking down what’s changed, what still matters, and where they see the market heading next.

We dive into transaction volume after one of the slowest periods in decades, debate how much growth is actually realistic, and explain why interest rates in the mid-5s could unlock a wave of pent-up demand—especially from millennials, the largest buyer group ever.

You’ll hear:

• Updated 2026 home sales forecasts

• Real vs. nominal appreciation (and why inflation matters)

• Where Nick and Keegan disagree on price growth

• Interest rate predictions—and a friendly wager to prove it

Bottom line: 2026 won’t be a boom year—but the right shift in rates could change everything.

Welcome back to The Shivers Report.Oregon keeps showing up on lists as one of the most desired states to move to—but the real estate data tells a more complicated story.In this episode, Nick and Keegan break down what’s actually happening behind the headlines. While people want to live here, Oregon has quietly become one of the hardest and most expensive states to build in. With permitting delays, rising fees, restrictive policies, and shrinking supply, affordability continues to take a hit.We cover:Why supply matters more than interest ratesHow building fees and permits are driving up home pricesWhy developers are leaving Oregon for other statesWhat this means for buyers, sellers, and the future of the marketBottom line: demand is there—but without changes to building incentives, affordability will keep slipping.

Welcome to The Shivers Report.In our very first episode, Nick and Keegan Shivers break down the biggest housing headlines making waves—and ask the question everyone is debating: Can Donald Trump actually move the needle on housing affordability?From talk of 50-year mortgages and portable loans to banning institutional investors and forcing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy mortgage-backed securities, we unpack what’s real, what’s political noise, and what could actually impact the housing market.In this episode, we cover:Why 30-year mortgages are already an anomalyThe pros and cons of 50-year and portable mortgagesWhether banning Wall Street investors would help or hurt housingHow government intervention affects interest rates—but not supplyWhy lower rates without more homes could backfireNick and Keegan don’t always agree—but they do agree on this: affordability isn’t black and white, and quick fixes can create long-term problems.Bottom line: lowering rates may help in the short term, but without solving supply, housing affordability remains a challenge.

In this episode of The Shivers Report, Nick breaks down the most important real estate metric you should be watching: inventory levels. National inventory is sitting around five months, but the Pacific Northwest continues to move differently—holding closer to four. What does that mean for buyers, sellers, and the year ahead?
Nick dives into real home values, inflation adjustments, interest rate predictions for 2026, and why the PNW market refuses to behave like the rest of the country.