A new study introduces the “Solitude Zone,” a statistical model that gauges when a single intelligent species—like humanity—is most likely to exist. Merging ideas from the Fermi paradox, Drake equation, and Kardashev Scale, researcher Antal Veres found that Earth’s odds of being in this zone are only about 30%, suggesting we’re either one of many civilizations—or none at all.

The concept offers a fresh perspective on the age-old question: Are we truly alone?