The Tanmay Edge | India's pre-market edge, every trading day.

Sensex weekly expiry day and the overnight tape just rewrote the chart. Brent crashed from 109 to 105.73 in the evening session, a 5% crack in four hours. WTI broke 100 to print 99.27. Then Asia opened and KOSPI ripped 6.80%, Nikkei 3.55%, Taiwan 3.38%. Nasdaq closed 1.54% green, the DAX 1.36%, S&P 0.89%. GIFT Nifty is up 142 points at 23807. We are opening 200 points above where Wednesday closed.

If you missed Wednesday you are going to misread today. Nifty closed at 23659 and Sensex at 75388, both green by a quarter percent. Boring on the surface. But on the options chain the professional desk flipped from being short 21902 call contracts on Tuesday to being long 133782 call contracts on Wednesday. One session. A 155684 contract swing. The smartest seat in the room reversed direction and bet the move was coming. Overnight the move came.

This is the third time this season we have seen this exact sequence. Episode 25, Episode 32, now Episode 44. Each time the Pro desk flipped to long calls on a Wednesday and the market gave them the move within 36 hours. The first two times we faded the rally into the wall. This time the play is different. Buy the dip, not the open.

For the trade plan today. If Sensex opens around 75900 and holds above 75800 in the first 30 minutes, the writers who got caught short calls Wednesday will defend 76200 and today's magnet shifts up to 75900. Sell premium near 75900 if you trade options, exit by 14:30. If Sensex opens 75900 and slips back to 75500 in the first hour, the gift gets taken and 24000 on Nifty becomes the next level on the right side of the chart. That is the dip you buy.

The simpler trade. If you are watching cash and not options, same idea. Wait for the pullback. Do not chase the gap up. The gap up is the entry institutions already took. Your entry is the dip. Watch 75500 on Sensex and 23700 on Nifty for the level buyers come back at. Above 23900 we have a clean run at 24000 by next week.

Three reasons the bias has shifted to buy on dips. One, Brent at 105 means the escalation premium just released. Every dip in this market the last two weeks was bought by traders pricing crude back to 115. That bid lost its anchor. Two, global 10 year yields dropped together. India 7.10, Germany 3.09, Italy 3.84, UK 5.00. Cheaper money chases equities first. Three, KOSPI 6.80% is a leading indicator. India IT does not lead this kind of move, it follows.

One thing on the screen is red. Gold on MCX closed 160042, down 1.78% for the week, after the government raised the import duty to 15%. Kalyan dropped 6%, silver dropped 7%, the jewellery basket is recalibrating. Watch the gold names today. The Wednesday cash flows tell the same story as the chain. Foreign desk sold 1597 crore. Domestic mutual funds bought 1963 crore. Third session in a row of complete absorption. Domestic flows have been the floor for three weeks and that pattern is intact.

The Tanmay Edge drops every trading day at 8:30 AM IST. Streaming free on rupeecase.com. The RupeeCase Nifty strategy book prints Day 6 alpha today. Available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and rupeecase.com homepage. Data sources NSE BhavCopy and BSE BhavCopy.

Global bond yields are climbing across every major curve overnight — US 10Y at 4.67% near a one-year high, UK 10Y jumped over 1% in a session to 5.13%, Germany 3.19% up 0.86%, Italy 3.98%, Japan 2.79%. When bonds pay more, equities pay relatively less. Foreign desks have a cheaper place to park money than emerging markets. That is the slow leak in three weeks of FII data. Today is one trading day to Sensex weekly expiry — settlement Thursday.

Yesterday FII flipped back to seller with minus 2,457 crore after Monday's one-day buy of 2,813 crore. DII bought the dip cleanly with 3,802 crore. Combined cash net positive 1,344 crore — two desks, different views, same outcome. Nifty barely moved — closed 23,618, down 31 points. Sensex 75,200.85, down 158. India VIX at 18.57.

Sensex sits AT the math line at 75,200. Below, the gamma number flips negative — dips accelerate, bounces snap. Above, moves pull toward the writer level at 75,500, where 10 lakh-plus calls form the rally cap. ATM straddle 870 — implied 1.15% move to Thursday close. Nifty 23,500 put has 4.94 million contracts as support, 23,700 call 4.96 million as ceiling, 23,600 magnet. The 23,700 put added 1.8 million yesterday — institutions hedging at the ceiling.

Three steps for Wednesday. One — if spot dips below 75,200 Sensex or 23,500 Nifty, buy premium because vol expands fast on the way down. Two — if spot rallies toward 75,500 Sensex or 23,700 Nifty, sell stretched premium because moves pin near the cap. Three — never hold one-sided premium overnight. Hedge with the opposite leg every time.

If the charts confuse you, the at-the-money Sensex straddle is the cleanest bet on movement without picking direction. The 75,200 call plus put costs 870. If Sensex moves more than 870 points by Thursday close, the straddle pays. Less than 870, premium decays. Pro desks did exactly this Monday — long both calls and puts, no side. Tuesday they booked the call leg, kept the puts and long futures. Same shape as a long call.

Sectors. IT continued to lead Tuesday — TCS, Infosys, HCL, Tech M all green, IT index up 3.23%. Mid-cap IT and telecom up 2.33%. Pharma defensive bid holding. Private Bank weakest down 0.74%. Bank Nifty broke 53,500 which it had defended two weeks. Nvidia opens its US earnings book Wednesday after close — Thursday's mover for Indian IT. Walmart and Target prints Wednesday US morning.

FII flows. Tuesday cash minus 2,457.49 crore, DII Tuesday plus 3,801.68 crore. Cumulative YTD FII at minus 54,151 crore versus DII plus 64,802 crore. On derivatives, FII deepened the bearish stack — net short futures 2.16 lakh contracts, long puts 4.27 lakh. Pro desk reset to long-gamma — long futures, long puts, neutral calls. Crowd went max-bullish — long calls 2.24 lakh, short puts 6.49 lakh.

Stream The Tanmay Edge free on rupeecase.com. Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube @RupeeCase. Drops 8:30 AM IST every trading day. Episode 43 of Season 2. Source — NSE BhavCopy and BSE BhavCopy, 19 May 2026. Educational content, not investment advice. Markets carry risk. Read all related documents carefully.

On Friday foreigners sold us a billion dollars worth. On Monday morning the Sensex was 1,135 points underwater by 10 AM. Then the same desks came back and bought us 2,813 crore in cash. The Nifty climbed all the way back to 23,649. Today is Nifty weekly expiry. The buyers are sitting in the chair.

THE OVERNIGHT SETUP. Monday gave us three macro warning lights — Brent crude 111 dollars, rupee at 96.40 (first ever print above 96), Bitcoin under 80,000. By Tuesday morning, Brent had dropped 2 percent overnight to 109.81. One light dimmed. Korea KOSPI down 5.24 percent is the new Asia wild card. American markets closed mixed — no panic. GIFT Nifty was up 23 points at 7:45 AM IST — almost a flat open.

THE CHAIN FOR TODAY. The biggest call position is 24,000 with 12.62 million contracts. That ceiling is mathematically too far to touch today. The biggest put support is now 23,400 — 11.91 million contracts, up 6.71 million on Monday. Important shift — put writers at 23,700 unwound 2.07 million contracts and re-stacked their support 200 points lower. So the 23,700 magnet that pulled the V recovery is weaker today than last week. Expected range 23,444 to 23,856.

THE PLAN — TWO TRADES, ONE EXPIRY DAY. First half, buy on dips. If the Nifty drops toward 23,500, that is the buy. Long options or long cash. The biggest desk in the market paid for movement, so the dip comes early. If we instead open and trade up to 23,750, switch sides — sell premium, do not chase. Second half, the afternoon comes back to the centre. Whatever the morning prints, the afternoon fades. Magnet zone 23,650-23,750 at close.

THE SIMPLER TRADE. Buy the 23,400 put for protection — about 31 rupees on Monday close. One and a half thousand rupees per lot of 65, less than a coffee. If overnight Brent flips above 112 or rupee opens past 96.50, this protects the cash. Otherwise let it expire. Insurance has a price, peace of mind is the payout.

SECTORS AND THIS WEEK. Monday — Nifty IT up 2.43 percent, Pharma quiet with Gland Pharma up 15, Bharti Airtel strong. Down side — Auto, PSU Bank, Metal, Power Grid, Media. Defensives outperformed. Wednesday US time, Nvidia earnings — biggest single-stock event globally this week. American chip story has been the tail wagging Indian IT. Also Wednesday — Sensex weekly expiry and Walmart Target consumer prints.

FII AND DII FLOW. Monday foreign institutional cash plus 2,813 crore — first net buy after a long selling streak. Domestic institutional cash plus 2,682 crore. Combined 5,495 crore of buying landed exactly at the 23,317 intraday low. In derivatives, the biggest desk added 226,000 net calls plus 148,000 net puts — same long-volatility structure as Friday but tilted bullish on calls.

Stream the episode on rupeecase dot com. Apple Podcasts and Spotify carry the audio. Sources — NSE BhavCopy and BSE BhavCopy, 18 May 2026. Strategies and prediction trail at rupeecase dot com. This is Tanmay. The Tanmay Edge.

Saturday Donald Trump told Iran to get moving or there will be nothing left. Brent crude climbed 4 dollars over the weekend to 113. Bitcoin dropped 1300 dollars to 78030. The market we left on Friday is not the market we open today.

On Friday something rare happened on the Nifty option chain. The biggest desk bought 117484 call contracts AND 113445 put contracts in the same session. 230000 fresh option contracts on both sides of the trade. When a desk pays insurance for the market going up AND going down at the same time, they are not predicting direction. They are saying the market is going to move this week. Today is the day they paid for.

GIFT Nifty opens at 23561. Down 146 points. Down 0.62 percent. 80 points below Friday close. 60 points above 23500.

Why 23500 matters. At that strike, traders have bought 7.4 million put contracts for this week's expiry. The biggest single position on the entire chain. If today's selling reaches 23500, the question is whether put sellers defend the level or it cracks. Above us at 23700 sits the magnet for tomorrow Tuesday Nifty weekly expiry. 9.9 million contracts of calls plus puts stacked at that single strike. The chain wants to settle at 23700 by Tuesday close. Above 23700 sits 23800 as the first ceiling with 6.2 million calls written. Above that 24000 with 10.4 million.

The trade plan in 3 steps. Step one: do not chase the opening dip. Let the market test 23500 in the first 30 minutes. Step two: if 23500 holds, a bounce comes toward 23700. Sell that bounce. Step three: wait for a base to form between 23400 and 23550. Once it holds 15 to 20 minutes, go long. Target 23700 by Tuesday expiry close. Stop loss tight under the base.

Simpler trade for smaller accounts. Buy a 23500 put at 103 rupees. Buy a 23800 call at 87 rupees. Total cost 190 rupees per unit. Pays if the market falls below 23310 today, or rises above 23990 today, or both. Cheaper than one share of most Nifty constituents.

Do not sell options today. The Friday IV reading was 15.01 percent. By 8 AM today that reading jumped to 17.78 percent. The option market expanded 18 percent overnight without a single share trading. The sellers of options lose first when movement arrives.

Sectors bid Friday: Pharma plus 0.34. Healthcare plus 0.25. FMCG plus 0.54. Media plus 1.98. Defensive earners holding the money. Sectors sold: Metal down 1.93. PSU Bank down 1.80 on RBI broker credit rules. Realty down 1.79. Oil and Gas down 1.67. Stay with defensives this week.

One catalyst today: Indian Oil Corporation reports Q4 results post close. Refining margin commentary tells the OMC pack. One launch today: NSE starts trading Electronic Gold Receipts. Day 1.

On Friday foreign investors bought 1329 crore of Indian shares. First positive print after 5 sessions of selling. Domestic mutual funds sold 1959 crore. Year to date the domestic side has overtaken foreign outflow for the first time this year. That is the support holding the market while Brent and the rupee fight on the surface.

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Yesterday Sensex closed 75398.72 up 789. The biggest single day move since the 8th of April. Nifty closed 23689.60 plus 1.18 percent. BSE Metal led at plus 3.30. BSE Focused IT bled minus 1.77.

But the move wasn't the story. The hedge was.

Proprietary desks flipped 147656 call contracts in one session. From 71438 short calls Wednesday to 76218 long calls Thursday. Same desk. One day. Largest call-side Pro flip of Season Two. Third Pro flip of the season. First two ran three sessions higher each.

And then three desks moved the same way on the put side. Pro trimmed 14998 long puts. FII trimmed 64419 long puts. Client covered 77707 short puts. Three desks cut downside protection on the same session. When everyone removes the hedge at the same time, the chain isn't predicting. The chain is confessing.

The map for Friday is clean. 23500 is the floor. Put open interest 105167 contracts, the biggest put base inside the range. 23700 is the pin. Call 61204 plus put 73321 stacked, 134525 joint cluster. 24000 is the wall. Call open interest 106518. 24500 is the outer wall at 124465. The ATM 23700 straddle prints 347.90 rupees. One sigma wing 217 each side. Friday range 23483 to 23917.

Tonight the global tape is mixed. Brent crude 106.97 dollars plus 1.18 percent overnight. Hormuz Day Four. KOSPI minus 3.44 percent on Korean tech selling. Nikkei minus 1. US futures cut the other way. Nasdaq plus 0.88. Nasdaq strength pulls Indian IT off the floor today. GIFT Nifty up 49 at 23779. Dollar to rupee 95.76. India ten year 7.04. Dollar Index 99.04.

The Friday trade plan holds three legs. Sell the 23700 straddle if Pro long calls hold and GIFT stays flat to plus 50 and Brent prints under 108. Theta pays into close. Buy the 23500 to 23600 floor zone with a 23400 put hedge if the floor holds. Short the 24000 wall on rally above 23900 with a 24500 call hedge. The wing as hedge stays on books either way.

Stand down rules stay loaded. VIX above 19 on daily close drops the straddle. Brent above 108 intraday fades rallies. Dollar to rupee above 96 trims equity. Yesterday VIX closed 18.60. Sub-19 streak is 11 sessions.

The RupeeCase Nifty 10 basket added 1.76 percent in three sessions since the 11 May rebalance. Tata Steel, Hindalco, Adani Ports and JSW Steel carried the metal leg through Thursday's plus 3 percent sectoral move. Day four opens Friday. Next rebalance the 8th of June.

Third week the wing as hedge has paid. EP36 the 23800 put. EP38 the 75000 call. Today the 23400 put. Same instrument. Different jobs each session.

Buy on dips. Hedge the ceiling. Hold the wing. Stand down if Brent breaks 108 or VIX cracks 19.

Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or stream free on rupeecase.com. Follow on X: @TanmayKurtkoti.

Yesterday Sensex closed at 74608.98. Up 49 points. Half a percent of a percent. From the outside it looked like the bleeding from Tuesday's crash had simply stopped. From the inside, Wednesday was the day the trade flipped.

Proprietary desks made three bullish moves on the same session. Covered 113051 short call positions. Sold 45229 long put positions. Added 5095 long futures positions. One bullish move on a session is noise. Three bullish moves on the same session is a posture shift. The last time we saw this exact signature was the 28th and 29th of April. Pro flipped. Four sessions later the market was higher.

This morning GIFT Nifty is up 109 points at 23533. Brent crude eased from 107 dollars overnight to 105.64. The dollar to rupee held steady at 95.70. US futures are green. Asia is mostly green. Pro bought the floor. GIFT voted up. The wall sits 391 points away.

Today is Sensex weekly expiry. The 14-May option chain is built around a clean 1000-point range. The 75000 strike is the wall. Call open interest 1306320 contracts, with 458860 fresh contracts added in one session. That is a 65 percent build at one strike in one day. The 74000 strike is the floor. Put open interest 1808080, with 904160 puts added Wednesday. Below that, at 73000, sits the deepest single-strike put open interest of any chain we have looked at this season. 2240440 puts, with another million added in a day.

Wednesday the chain added 7.2 million call open interest contracts and 16.7 million put open interest contracts. Put writers outpaced call writers by a factor of 2.3 to 1. When more puts get written than calls on the same session, the option sellers are saying they do not expect prices to fall. That is the quietest bullish signal in the book.

Foreign institutions held the mirror position. 254012 short calls. 444048 long puts. Sold 5752 crore rupees of options for premium. Two desks. Different bets on direction. Same bet on volatility. The volatility cracked. Implied vol for 14-May options dropped 8.15 percent in one session.

The trading plan on EP39 stays simple. Buy the dip. Hedge the ceiling. Hold the wing. Sensex 74100 to 74300 is the second-chance entry zone with a 74000 put hedge. Sensex 75000 is the sell-the-rally zone with a 75500 call hedge. The ATM 74600 strike is the joint pin with both sides adding 250000 plus contracts. The wing-as-hedge has paid for three straight episodes. Same put. Two jobs. Sometimes three jobs.

The RupeeCase Nifty 10 portfolio added 0.86 percent yesterday on a day Nifty added 0.21 percent. Tata Steel. Hindalco. Adani Ports. JSW Steel. The metals leg led on a day the BSE Metal index added 3.30 percent. The 11-May rebalance brought Coal India back into the basket and that timing held. Excess return since rebalance plus 2.03 percent. Annualised CAGR 26.71 percent. Next rebalance 8 June.

Stream the episode free at rupeecase.com. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. The full prediction trail across all 38 graded episodes is live on the podcast hub.

Data attribution: NSE BhavCopy 13 May 2026 and BSE BhavCopy 13 May 2026. The Tanmay Edge does not provide investment advice. Educational content only.

Three sessions ago, 24000 was the resistance. Tuesday it became 23500. Smart money does not slide a level 500 points lower in one session because they are predicting a move. They do it because they are reacting to one. And what they are reacting to is buyers waiting underneath.

In Episode 38 of The Tanmay Edge, I walk you through exactly what happened on Tuesday, why the macro lane is firing, what the institutional positioning is telling us, and where I am buying with hedges on the next dip.

Tuesday close. Nifty 23379.55 down 1.83 percent. Sensex 74559.24 down 1.92 percent. India VIX up to 19.26 . 24 basis points below the 19.50 regime gate. Brent crude crossed 107 dollars overnight. Rupee broke a fresh record low at 95.6300, snapping through the 95.50 trigger line. The macro lane is firing for the third session while the US sits at record highs. The decoupling is real.

The Pro FII Client breakdown is where the real signal lives. Professional trading desks added 154000 MORE call shorts at 23500 in ONE day, going from minus 30000 to minus 184000 net calls. They also trimmed long puts from 249000 down to 186000 . profit taking on the floor break but stayed defensively long puts. FII covered some calls and added 63000 more long puts. Retail clients added 105000 MORE long calls and stayed short 7 lakh puts. Wrong side three sessions in a row.

The levels in plain language. 23500 is the new resistance . Pro stacked 3.3M call shorts here. 23200 is the first support test . buy zone only with hedge in place. 23000 is the deep structural floor . heaviest single put strike on the chain at 4.39M contracts. The 20 day moving average just broke. The 50 day at 23550 matches resistance. The 100 day at 23200 matches the first support. The 200 day at 23000 matches the deep floor. When chart and chain agree, the levels are real.

My POV. Buy on dips with hedges. Hedges are MANDATORY not optional. The dip I want is 23200 to 23300 with the 23000 put long as the floor hedge. Buy zone exits at 23500. If 23500 breaks with conviction, runway opens to 23800 and then back to 24000. Sharp reversal toward 24000 sets up once Brent breaks below 103 or rupee back below 95. Until either fires, defensive with conviction.

RupeeCase Nifty 10 . my systematic portfolio. Tuesday alpha plus 0.80 percent. Strategy down 0.82 percent versus Nifty down 1.62 percent. ONGC up 4.70. HINDALCO up 1.86. The defensive metals and energy tilt absorbed the bleed. Track every position live on rupeecase.com.

The Tanmay Edge drops 8:30 AM IST every trading day. Stream free on rupeecase.com. Available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube.

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Brent cracked 105 overnight. The escalation lane fired. GIFT Nifty opened down 117. India 10Y bid 7 basis points. Yesterday Pro flipped net calls from 58737 long to 30428 short in one session. The wall at 24000 multiplied 6x in a single day. The chain wrote the pin at 23800 and the fence at 23500.

Tuesday is Nifty weekly options expiry. Two trades in one expiry day. Vol first. Pin second. Long gamma morning. Short gamma afternoon. Premium sellers cannot work the first 90 minutes. Pin gravity wins after lunch if 24000 holds.

The POV. Buy 23700 PE on a test of 23650 in the first hour. Hold until VIX peaks. Flip to short strangle if spot recovers to 23800 by 12:30. Cover before 15:00 IST. The 24000 wall caps the rip. The 23500 floor catches the fall. Pro defends the wall. The chain runs the pin.

Education today. Expiry day is two markets. Not one. The morning belongs to gamma. The afternoon belongs to theta. When you know which market you are in, you know which trade pays. Today is hard because both markets show up in 6 hours.

Streaming free on rupeecase.com. India's first systematic investing terminal.

Source. NSE BhavCopy 11-May-2026.

The Iran tail came back. Brent jumped 3.31 percent over the weekend from 101.29 Friday settle to 104.65 Monday open. GIFT Nifty 24060.50 down 179 puts spot near the 24000 floor on the first tick. The wing the chain priced Friday is about to pay this morning.

The chain wrote 6111545 contracts at 24200 in one session Friday. Two walls 24500 and 25500 one thousand points apart. Three floors 24000 23500 23000 with the deepest built biggest. ATM 24200 straddle 291.30 prices a 23812 to 24540 four-day Mon-Tue range. GIFT opens 248 above wing floor.

POV stays buy on dips with hedge. Expected IV up. Long gamma day rule. Stand down on premium selling until VIX cracks back below 17. Buy zone 23950 to 24050. Hedge 12-May 23800 PE.

Three branches first hour. Base 50 magnet test. Escalation 35 floor break to 23812 with 23000 ultra-deep as live test. De-escalation 15 Brent below 100 by noon.

RupeeCase Nifty 10 rebalance day. Last reshuffle 33 bps Day-1 alpha. Track live on rupeecase.com.

Pro then FII then Client positioning order. Bank Nifty futures basis at open is the cleanest tell.

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Yesterday's EP34 pin trade paid 5 for 5. Sensex 77,844 inside the 78,000 magnet by 44 points. Pin held. Wing held. Bank Nifty held. Best card S2 has produced.

Then I opened the next-week chain. The wall doubled across 24,400 to 25,400. The floor slid down 500 points to 23,500. The pin moved up 50 points to 24,300 to 24,400. The chain priced a 5-day range of 23,924 to 24,776.

Then Brent reclaimed 100 overnight. Plus 4 dollars 34 cents. Asia cooled. Dollar Index firmed. The chain priced calm. The tape printed something else.

POV today: buy on dips continues. 24,000 is the level. Pro added 1.30 lakh long puts in one session, FII pressed all 3 legs short, Bank Nifty stays the lone long. Two desks, two tilts. And vol spike expected throughout the day, which means the wing isn't a hedge today. The wing is the trade.

Plus this episode: education on why a wing buys vol expansion, not floor breaks. The two trades look the same. They are not the same trade.

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