The Tanmay Edge | India's pre-market edge, every trading day.

Tuesday's expiry pin failed. 24500 broke clean. The call writers stuck at the wall did not run. That broken ceiling is now the floor.

GIFT Nifty 24454 down 121. Brent 98.18 still above 96. USD INR 93.49 still above 93.40. Both wrong side tells armed.

FII Cash minus 1918 crore. DII Cash plus 2221 crore. FII still net short 173948 Nifty futures, sold 131k calls and bought 300k puts on a breakout day. Pro is long volatility. Client wrote 380k puts right at the wall. One book is wrong today.

Bias: buy on dips with hedge. 24400 to 24500 is the floor zone. Cheap IV after expiry crush makes hedged longs the right structure. Stops below 24350. Target 24500, then 24600. Tomorrow stacks 1DTE Sensex weekly with Infosys Q4 post close.

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The data doesn't lie. Narratives do

Nifty closed 24364 Monday. Flat on the surface. Underneath, the option chain moved 500 points and IV expanded 48 percent in one session. You do not get that print before a boring expiry.

This morning GIFT Nifty is trading 24402, up 60 points. Asia is leading with KOSPI up 2.15, Nikkei up 1.34, Taiwan up 1.90. Europe closed heavy Monday. US futures are mixed. The set up is a gap up into mean reversion.

The straddle is 267.45. One standard deviation is 334 points. Expected range today is 24031 to 24699. That is a 668 point band for an expiry day. The market is priced for a move, not a pin.

The chain restructured bullish. Put writers walked up from 23000 to 23500 and 23700. Call writers covered 1.27 crore far out of the money contracts and stacked a trap at 24500. Pro flipped back long 3671 futures and doubled their long put book. FIIs sold cash but bought 641 crore of Nifty futures, which is short covering, not fresh shorting. Client is max bullish on futures and max short on puts, which is the contrarian tell.

The thesis is simple. Buy on dips. Respect the vol. Expect a big move. 24500 is the trap to fade on first touch. 24200 is the dip to buy. 24000 is the line in the sand.

This episode breaks down the overnight setup, the OI migration, the IV mean reversion trade, the institutional positioning, and the RupeeCase Nifty post-rebalance book which just clocked 1.11 percent alpha on day one with AXISBANK and TECHM added.

Stream on rupeecase.com. Follow @TanmayKurtkoti for daily market structure.

Pro versus FII versus Client read inside.

Pro flipped short Thursday, flipped back bullish Friday. 122000 long calls added, 66000 puts dumped in one session. The fastest reversal in Season 2. FII covering collapsed from 87000 to 5000 a day with 190000 still short. DII sold 8000 crores in 2 days while FII bought cash. Crude whipsawed 102 to 90 to 95 in a week. IV crushed to 14.58%, cheapest options since the tariff shock. The hedge window is open. Buy on dips, hedge the tail. Pro flipped back. FII grinding. Client cautious. Nifty weekly expiry Tuesday 21 Apr.

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Pro dumped 93% of their call position in a single session and doubled down on short futures. FII covering collapsed from 87636 to 1729. Crude at $98.13, $1.87 from the March selloff trigger. Call wall fortress at 24300 to 24500 with 98 lakh new OI. Client at maximum bullish while Pro goes conviction short. Full F&O breakdown, the conviction short signal, crude danger zone, Wipro buyback reaction, gamma flip at 24200, and Nifty expiry levels for Monday. The Tanmay Edge, Season 2 EP21. Stream free on rupeecase.com or subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube

#TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #FnO #CrudeOil #ProVsFII #StockMarket #Options #RupeeCase #PreMarket

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Every trading day, before 9:15 AM, Tanmay Kurtkoti gives you the one edge most traders miss before market open.

FII covered 87636 index futures shorts in a single session. Season 2 record. Nifty closed 24231 above the 24200 line. Sensex broke 78000 for the first time. But Pro flipped net short at the highs and added 18511 long puts. Client is at max bullish with record short puts. Today is Sensex weekly expiry with ATM straddle at 677 implying 847-point intraday range. GIFT Nifty at 24317. Nikkei +2.45%. S&P above 7000 first time. Pro vs FII vs Client positioning decoded.

Tanmay is the founder of QCAlpha Advisors ($75M+ AUM) and RupeeCase — India's systematic quantitative investing terminal. 16+ years in derivatives and quantitative trading including prop desk experience at Religare.

No fluff. No filler. Just your edge — before the chaos begins.

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#TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #Sensex #FII #ProVsFII #WeeklyExpiry #Options #RupeeCase #PreMarket

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Crude cracked from Mon morning's $102 peak all the way to $94.60. Below pre-shock levels. The Hormuz premium is fully unwound.

Nifty opens Wed 15 Apr with a 368 point gap-up implied from GIFT at 24210. And for the first time in weeks, implied volatility is going DOWN on a gap-up day. 21 Apr ATM IV at 20.4, crushed −7.26% from yesterday. The 23800 straddle sits at 587. That is conviction, not panic.

The FII book with −286227 index futures shorts at S2 peak is marking-to-market loss every tick above 24000. Options chain is bullish both indices — Nifty PCR 1.089, Sensex PCR 1.198.

Sensex weekly expiry is Thursday 16 April. 1 trading day after reopen. Call wall cluster at 77000 and 77300. If gap extends above 77500, pinning setup for straddle sellers.

Screener is Strong Buy across Defence, Metal, Energy, Mid Select, Chemicals, Finance, Pharma, Infra. IT is Neutral — the one sector that didn't react to Nasdaq +1.96%.

24200 is the line. Close above it = rotation leg higher. Fail = back to 23900-24000 magnetism.

Buy on dips continues. Watch volatility. If IV refuses to fall by 11 AM — get careful again.

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Brent crude spiked 7.5% overnight to $102. GIFT Nifty gapped down 335 points to 23,756. FII are sitting on -2,86,227 short contracts — the highest of Season 2 — and those shorts are printing. But the same FII were cash buyers on Friday at +672 Cr. Collar strategy, not panic. Clients are max bullish with -4.89L short puts and +1.43L long futures — all underwater this morning. Pro is flat at +91. GEX shows gamma flip at 24,050, we open 300 points below it in negative gamma. 24,000 strike holds 53L OI — the expiry magnet. Straddle 283, 1SD range 23,646-24,354. VIX will spike early, cool off later. This is a mean-reverting expiry day — negative close, buy the dip for the week. Plus: RupeeCase rebalance mechanics explained. Pro vs FII vs Client positioning breakdown.

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FII covered 41,000 shorts in 2 days — then stopped and added 318 back. Client short puts exploded to -4.66 lakh. Screener flipped SELL, IV flipped BUY. Nifty under negative gamma below 23,850. Then TCS drops a 29% QoQ profit beat after hours. Pro vs FII vs Client — the positioning that matters. Plus: why options tell you more than futures when covering pauses. Stream free on rupeecase.com | Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Nifty rallied 874 points yesterday on the Iran ceasefire. FII covered 32,035 futures contracts — biggest single-day unwind in Season 2. Pro flipped to short puts. Client booked profits on 1 lakh short-put contracts as the gap-up played into their long-delta position. But FII is still short 2,27,400. Today is Sensex weekly expiry with an 800-point straddle — implied range 76,600 to 78,600. GIFT Nifty 24,005 this morning, down 94 from yesterday’s close. Asia is taking profits. Brent bounced 2% to $96.78. DXY back above 99. The vol crush from yesterday’s gap continues — IV dropped 41%. TCS Q4 kicks off earnings season. View: buy on dips, sell volatility. RupeeCase Nifty portfolio tracks live on rupeecase.com. Stream free on rupeecase.com, Spotify, Apple Podcasts.

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Trump's Iran ceasefire crashed Brent 13% to $94 overnight biggest single-session crude drop since the 2020 Saudi price war.

GIFT Nifty surged 700 points to 23,808. India imports 85% of its oil every $10 drop saves ₹43,000 Cr on the annual import bill, directly reducing inflation and giving RBI room to cut.

RBI MPC decision at 10 AM. Pro added 9,459 long contracts with 24,591 protective puts — classic long-but-protected positioning.

FII still short 2,59,000 futures contracts, now staring at massive MTM losses. Client added 36,000 more short puts betting on downside when the ceasefire was hours away.

Dollar Index below 99. Gold $4,817. Asia ripping Nikkei +5.39%, KOSPI +6%. New 17 Apr chain building, OI is thin, resistance-less. 24,000 is the big psychological level. EP14 predictions: 5 scenarios mapped, 3 tested, all hit. View: long, long options, long volatility. RupeeCase Nifty portfolio tracks live on rupeecase.com. Stream free on rupeecase.com, Spotify, Apple Podcasts.

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