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Brent crude surged to $111.59 (+3.92%) overnight — a double negative alongside the banking shock. Asia broadly red: Nikkei -2.53%, Hang Seng -1.60%, Nasdaq -1.46% at US close. This isn't a normal gap down. But it's also not a broad market collapse — it's a single heavyweight stock repricing.

The setup: HDFCBANK has ~12.5% weight in Nifty. A 7.5% fall in one stock explains most of the 510-point drop. Once that shock absorbs, 23,400–23,500 is the mean reversion zone. VIX expected to spike to 20+ — long gamma day, buy options, don't sell into the opening. FII short cover trend was 3 days running — watch if they hold or reverse today. That data point tells you everything about the next move.

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Bulls won the expiry. Can they hold above 23,600?

Yesterday's story: Nifty closed 23,581 (+172 pts), IV crushed 88% on expiry, VIX dropped 8.38% to 19.79. And for the first time in weeks — FIIs bought index futures (+₹1,247 Cr) while still selling cash (-₹4,741 Cr). A small number, but the first crack in the short wall. FII net short position reduced to 2,40,775 contracts.

Today's setup: GIFT Nifty +82 at 23,664 signals a moderate gap up straight into 23,600 resistance — where 20 lakh calls are written. Post-expiry consolidation likely between 23,500 and 23,650. Brent crude pulling back from $104 to $102 — constructive for India. Sectors to watch: Auto (Strong Buy), Finance (Strong Buy). Avoid IT. VIX at 19.00 — fear is fading but the trend hasn't reversed yet.

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It's expiry day — and Nifty wants to gap up 140 points straight into the 23,500 wall.

GIFT Nifty at 23,496. Asia broadly green — KOSPI +2.77%, Hang Seng +1.11%, Taiwan +1.77%. Brent crude still above $100 at $102.95. But don't let the green fool you: FIIs sold another ₹9,365 crores in cash on Monday and are sitting on 2.48 lakh short index futures contracts. The structural sell hasn't changed.

In options: 23,500 has 52 lakh calls sold against it — the wall of the day. IV at 26.03 with straddles at ₹410. TK Screener says sell IV today. VIX dropped 4.5% yesterday — panic easing but trend still down. Key levels: 23,500 resistance, 23,300 support, 23,200 secondary. Watch the first 30 minutes.

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Markets open green — but don't be fooled by the gap.

GIFT Nifty is trading 77 points higher at 23,280, up 0.33%, signalling a flat to positive open for Monday. Asian markets are mixed — Nikkei down 1.23%, Jakarta down 2.62%, while Hang Seng and Straits Times are holding slight gains. Dow futures are showing early morning strength after European markets closed marginally negative on Friday.

On commodities: Brent crude is trading above the $100 mark at $104, up 1.36%. Gold is cracking — down 0.33% at $5,005 per ounce. MCX gold closed at ₹1,58,400 and silver at ₹2,59,279.

The real story is in the FII/DII data. On Friday's cash market close, FIIs sold ₹10,700 crores of equity while DIIs bought ₹9,900 crores — net negative. For the month of March, FIIs have now sold ₹56,000 crores cumulatively. The cumulative yearly figures stand at FII selling of ₹2,67,000 crores vs DII buying of ₹7,67,000 crores — and the gap is worsening.

In F&O positioning, clients are holding 1,56,000 long index futures contracts. FIIs are on the other side with 2,60,540 short index futures. On options: clients are long 3,69,744 calls and short 5,48,501 puts — a clear long delta, short skew positioning. FIIs hold 2,60,556 short calls and 4,55,524 long puts. Pros mirror the same — short calls, long puts. The tug of war is set: FIIs and Pros positioned for reversal, clients positioned completely long.

Key levels for today: 23,200 is the gamma flip zone. Below that, 23,000 is first support with 71 lakh puts sold, followed by 22,800 where 47 lakh puts are written. On the upside, 23,400 is first resistance with 31 lakh calls sold, and 23,500 is the major wall with 51 lakh calls. One standard deviation range for today's expiry sits at 22,564 on the downside and 23,800 on the upside. IV is at 24.64 — elevated — with straddles at ₹500. Long gamma conditions are in play.

Today's read: the morning gap up is unlikely to sustain. Expect a sell-off in the first half, with a potential bounce later if indices attempt recovery. Sectors showing relative strength: Energy, Pharma, Defence, FMCG, Mid Cap, Chemicals. Sectors losing ground: IT, Infra, CNX 500, Finance, Auto.

Know your levels. Trade the data, not the emotion. That's your edge.

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Friday, 13th March — GIFT Nifty trades at 23,510, down 206 points, signalling a weak open near 23,500. US markets closed sharply lower — S&P 500 down 1.52% and Nasdaq down 1.78% — while European markets shed 0.5%. Asian markets are broadly in the red this morning, with Nikkei down 1.24% and Kospi down 1.52%.

FIIs were net sellers of ₹7,049 crore yesterday, while DIIs absorbed ₹7,449 crore. For March, FIIs have sold ₹46,166 crore versus DIIs buying ₹60,549 crore. Since April 2024, FIIs have offloaded ₹2,56,000 crore while DIIs have bought ₹7,57,000 crore, continuing to provide a strong backstop.

On positioning, FIIs are aggressively short 2,26,327 index futures contracts. Clients have sold a massive 5,15,027 put contracts — a crowded bet on a bounce — while FIIs and Pros have bought puts and sold calls, positioning for further downside. The gap down today is likely to squeeze client stops.

Trade Setup:

• Key support at 23,500 with 44 lakh shares on the put side; resistance at 24,000 with 52 lakh shares.
• Gamma flip level sits at 23,650 — below this, negative gamma accelerates moves.
• Scalping opportunity: play a 23,500–23,000 put spread and a 23,500–24,000 call spread through the session.
• Metals and energy are the only sectors showing relative strength; CNX Energy worth watching given geopolitical tailwinds.

IV is running at 21.95 with a one standard deviation range of 23,000–24,300. Expect a volatility spike to 27–28 on the open, with a pullback towards 22 in the second half. Use spreads, protect capital, and keep stop losses intact.

Friday, 22nd August — GIFT Nifty trades at 25,057, down 50 points, even as Asian markets hold steady in the green. US indices slipped overnight, with the Nasdaq down 0.34% at a crucial 21,000 level.

Flows turned supportive, with FIIs buying ₹1,246 crore and DIIs adding ₹2,546 crore. For the month, however, FIIs remain net sellers (-₹24,128 crore), while DIIs continue to absorb supply (+₹66,512 crore).

Positioning data shows clients maintaining their long stance with 4.43 lakh shares net long, while pros remain net short at 1.21 lakh shares, balancing the risk. With implied volatility at just 8.5 for the August expiry and realized volatility still running higher, long gamma strategies remain the preferred play.

Trade Setup:

• Core directional bias: Stay long gamma.
• Bull Put Spread is attractive: Sell 25,500 PE, Buy 25,100 PE. The spread is trading near 320–330 points, with risk and reward both capped near 40-50 & 350 points.
• Pharma continues to show sectoral strength, while CPSE remains a weak spot.

In commodities, gold trades near ₹99,390 with a slight bullish bias, silver is stable, crude has bounced to ₹5,545, and natural gas shorts should be covered at ₹240. Bitcoin remains weak at $1,13,440, while the Dollar Index stays firm above 98 and USDINR holds at 87.26.

With vols suppressed but realised moves still sharp, the theme remains the same trade with long gamma, use spreads to define risk, and focus on sectoral outperformance.

Friday, 22nd August — GIFT Nifty trades at 25,057, down 50 points, even as Asian markets hold steady in the green. US indices slipped overnight, with the Nasdaq down 0.34% at a crucial 21,000 level.

Flows turned supportive, with FIIs buying ₹1,246 crore and DIIs adding ₹2,546 crore. For the month, however, FIIs remain net sellers (-₹24,128 crore), while DIIs continue to absorb supply (+₹66,512 crore).

Positioning data shows clients maintaining their long stance with 4.43 lakh shares net long, while pros remain net short at 1.21 lakh shares, balancing the risk. With implied volatility at just 8.5 for the August expiry and realized volatility still running higher, long gamma strategies remain the preferred play.

Trade Setup:

• Core directional bias: Stay long gamma.
• Bull Put Spread is attractive: Sell 25,500 PE, Buy 25,100 PE. The spread is trading near 340–350 points, with risk and reward both capped near 40-50 & 400 points.
• Pharma continues to show sectoral strength, while CPSE remains a weak spot.

In commodities, gold trades near ₹99,390 with a slight bullish bias, silver is stable, crude has bounced to ₹5,545, and natural gas shorts should be covered at ₹240. Bitcoin remains weak at $1,13,440, while the Dollar Index stays firm above 98 and USDINR holds at 87.26.

With vols suppressed but realized moves still sharp, the theme remains the same — trade with long gamma, use spreads to define risk, and focus on sectoral outperformance.

It’s expiry day, Thursday 21st August, and markets are trading steady near the 25,000 mark. GIFT Nifty is higher at 25,109 (+29 pts), even as US markets saw weakness (Nasdaq -142 pts) and Asian markets trade mixed. Crude has bounced back above $67, gold is inching higher, and USDINR trades firm above 87.

Flows remain divergent — FIIs sold another ₹1,100 crore while DIIs bought ₹1,806 crore, keeping the monthly totals wide apart (FIIs -₹25,375 crore vs DIIs +₹63,966 crore).

Positioning shows clients still holding net longs (~3.16L shares), while pros have cut their shorts to ~56k. Synthetic futures are aligned near spot, indicating expiry action around 25,000–25,150. Weekly IVs have collapsed to 8.8, with the 25,050 straddle pricing just ₹106 — implying an ultra-narrow expiry range of 24,950–25,150.

Today’s trade setup:

• Avoid naked option selling in the morning; vols can spike.
• Calendar trades remain attractive (realized vols > implied).
• Consider a Long Call Butterfly around 25k: Buy 24,950 CE, Sell 2× 25,050 CE, Buy 25,100 CE — defined risk, expiry-aligned.

Sectoral strength continues in IT, Realty, Capital Markets, Small/Midcaps, and FMCG, while Pharma and CPSE remain neutral. In commodities, crude is weak, silver is falling, gold is stable, and Bitcoin trades soft.

The broader market mean remains at 25,000, with upside potential towards 25,200 if momentum builds.

Stay light, trade smart, and let expiry work for you.

Welcome to Trade Setup with Tanmay — your 5-minute audio podcast before the chaos begins.

It’s Wednesday, 20th August, and markets are holding steady near the 25,000 mark despite weakness in global equities. Asian indices are sharply lower (Nikkei -1.6%, Taiwan -1.8%, Kospi -1.85%), while US markets saw a tech-led selloff with Nasdaq dropping 1.5%. Brent crude remains under $66, gold continues to slip, and USDINR has cooled off after rejecting 87.50 resistance.

Flows remain divergent — FIIs sold ₹634 crore while DIIs bought ₹2,261 crore, keeping the monthly trend intact: FIIs net sellers (₹24,200 cr) and DIIs strong buyers (₹62,160 cr).

On the positioning front, clients have trimmed longs to ~3.96 lakh shares, while pros have cut shorts sharply to ~65k. With both sides reducing extremes, the market positioning looks balanced. The implied range from the 25k straddle is 24,800–25,200, keeping 25k as the mean reference. Volatility remains subdued at 9.46, making calendar spreads (21st vs 28th Aug) a favored trade.

Sector strength is visible in Autos (GST relief-driven), Realty, Metals, Smallcaps, and Midcaps, while CPSE stocks lag. IT is showing early signs of a turnaround. In commodities, crude remains weak, gold bearish, silver neutral, and natural gas stable. Bitcoin trades steady near $115,000.

Today’s trade view:

• Use dips near 24,800–24,750 to go long.
• Monthly expiry target stands at 25,500.
• Avoid naked option shorts at low vols; look at calendar trades for safer setups.

Key event triggers include FOMC Minutes tonight and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday, which could shift volatility expectations.

Stay tuned, trade safe, and let’s decode the setup before the chaos begins.

EP26: Nifty Steadies Near 25,000, Range Trade Likely — Expiry Watch & Sector Cues | 19th August, Tuesday

• Global Cues:
  • US markets rallied overnight.
  • Asian markets mostly weak: Hang Seng (-0.3%), Taiwan (-0.58%), Kospi (-0.5%), Nikkei (-0.1%).
  • Brent crude slipped below $67, trading at $66.28.
  • Dollar Index at 98.20, USDINR testing resistance at 87.50–87.75.

• Institutional Flows:
  • FIIs finally turned buyers, +₹550 crore.
  • DIIs bought ₹4,103 crore.
  • MTD: FIIs net sold ₹23,740 crore, DIIs net bought ₹59,899 crore.

• Derivatives Positioning:
  • Clients: Net long ~5.54 lakh shares (92k long calls, 4.32 lakh short puts, 1.15 lakh futures long).
  • Pros: Net short, continuing defensive stance.

• Volatility & Range:
  • IVs at 11.09 (21st Aug expiry).
  • 24,950 straddle ~₹211, implying range: 24,700 – 25,200.
  • Expect consolidation in the morning; possible breakout in second half.

• Sectors to Watch:
  • Strength: Pharma, Metals, Capital Markets, Smallcap turnaround.
  • Weak: IT, select Financials.

• Commodities:
  • Gold ~₹99801 (neutral).
  • Silver firm.
  • Crude weak.

• Game Plan:
  • Expiry day for Sensex contracts — expect volatility.
  • Short options early on spike; watch for breakout later.
  • Buy dips near 24,800–24,850 with upside target of 25,200.

It’s Tuesday, 19th August, and markets open steady near the 25,000 mark. Global cues are mixed — US markets rallied, but Asian indices are largely in the red, and Brent crude slipped below $67. On the domestic front, FIIs finally turned buyers (+₹550 cr), while DIIs added another ₹4,103 cr, continuing their strong monthly inflows.

On the derivatives side, clients remain heavily long with over 5.5 lakh shares in net exposure, while pros continue to stay short. Weekly IVs are at 11.09 with a 24,950 straddle pricing in a 24,700–25,200 trading range. Expect a volatile morning, but keep an eye on a possible breakout in the second half.

Sector rotation is clear — Pharma, Metals, Capital Markets, and Smallcaps are leading strength, while IT and select Financials are lagging. In commodities, gold is neutral to sell and silver remain firm, while crude continues to weaken. USDINR is testing resistance around 87.50–87.75, while the Dollar Index holds steady near 98.20.

Today’s trade plan:

• Use dips towards 24,800–24,850 to build longs.
• Watch for upside levels near 25,200 if 25k holds.
• Expiry in Sensex contracts today — expect intra-day volatility.