The Tanmay Edge | India's pre-market edge, every trading day.

Welcome to EP15 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your 5-minute pre-market podcast before the chaos begins.

The market opens on a shaky note. Gift Nifty is down 45 points at 24,673. FIIs have now sold for six straight sessions. Clients are overloaded on the long side while pros quietly accumulate puts. Is another leg down on the cards?

• 📊FII/DII Cash Activity (Monday):

• FIIs: Sold ₹6,082 Cr
• DIIs: Bought ₹6,764 Cr
• MTD Tally:
  • FIIs: -₹36,591 Cr
  • DIIs: +₹46,590 Cr

⚙️Market Setup:

• Nifty (Spot): ~24,706
• Opening print expected: ~24,650
• TK Algo Signal: Still in Sell mode from 25,135

📉 Sectors in Red:

• Realty
• Capital Markets
• Smallcap
• Infra
• FMCG
• CPSC
• Metals

📈 Only CNX Pharma shows relative strength

Client vs Pro Positioning:

Clients:

• Long Futures: 1.26 lakh
• Call Longs: 81,000
• Put Shorts: 5.00 lakh
• Net Long Bias: +5.90 lakh contracts → overextended

Pros:

• Long Futures: 15,000
• Call Shorts: 5,000
• Put Longs: 2.48 lakh
• Net Bearish Bias: ~2.54 lakh contracts

Interpretation:

Clients are aggressively long into a falling market. Pros are positioned for a continued breakdown. Caution warranted.

⚠️Volatility & Expiry Insight:

• 31 Jul IV: 11.02
• Aug IV: 11.17 — Surface is flat but up from sub-10 lows
• ATM Straddle (31 Jul @ 24,700): ₹208
• Recommendation:
  • Short Calendars
  • Long Gamma via short-dated straddles + long-dated hedges

🔑Key Levels:

• Resistance: 24,960 → 25,085
• Support: 24,700 (critical), followed by 24,680 & 24,650
• If 24,680 breaks — no fresh longs
• Only consider upside trades above 24,700 with follow-through
• Mean has shifted down to 25,000, stay cautious

🪙Commodities & Crypto:

• Gold (MCX): ₹98,117 — Neutral
• Silver: ₹1,13,169 — Sell bias
• Crude: ₹5,714 — Sell zone
• NatGas: ₹225 — Sell
• Dollar Index: Firm
• USDINR: ₹86.41 — Strength persists
• Bitcoin: Flat, trading near ₹1,16,000

“Clients are fully long — and fully exposed. If 24,680–700 doesn’t hold, the market could see fresh pressure. Pharma remains the lone bright spot. Best setups today: short calendars, call spreads, butterflies only above key supports.”

📅 New episodes drop every market morning by 8:30–8:45 AM IST

🎧 Trade Setup with Tanmay — your daily edge before the chaos begins.

Welcome to EP14 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your 5-minute pre-market podcast before the chaos begins.

The week begins flat with Gift Nifty at 24,839, but sentiment remains fragile. FIIs continue to sell, earnings are heavy, and key support levels are being tested.

🌍 Global Cues:

• Dow Futures: +183 pts at 45,083
• S&P 500 & Nasdaq: Closed higher on Friday
• Europe: Mixed
• Asia:
• Crude: $69
• Gold: $3,332 (↓0.15%)
• Dollar Index: 97.64
• USDINR: 86.52

📊 FII/DII Activity (Friday):

• FIIs: Sold ₹1,979 Cr
• DIIs: Bought ₹2,138 Cr
• MTD Net:
  • FIIs: -₹30,508 Cr
  • DIIs: +₹39,825 Cr

💼 Earnings Today (86+ Companies):

Key names: Indian Bank, Nestle, Adani Trans, Canara Bank, AFL, Emphasis, and more.

⚙️ Market Structure & Volatility:

• Nifty: Still in sell mode on TK Algo
• Only Pharma showing relative strength
• Weakness across: Smallcap, Realty, Capital Markets, Midcap, FMCG, Infra, CPSC

IVs remain compressed:

• 31 Jul: 9.12
• 7 Aug: 9.86
• Aug Expiry: 10.31

ATM Straddle (31 Jul @ 24,850): ₹238

• Range Projection:
  • Downside: 24,600
  • Upside: 25,050

  📈 Client vs Pro Positioning:

Clients:

• Long Futures: 1.16 lakh
• Call Longs: 66,000
• Put Shorts: 4.75 lakh
• Net Long Exposure: 5.41 lakh contracts → strong bullish bias

Pros:

• Long Futures: 17,000
• Call Shorts: 39,000
• Put Longs: 2.26 lakh
• Net Bearish Bias: 2.65 lakh contracts

Interpretation:

• Clients are still aggressively long
• Pros are positioned for a downside trap
• Early move could shake out over-leveraged long trades

🔑 Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 24,960 → 25,085
• Support Zones: 24,785 → 24,720
• Plan: Avoid long entries at open
  • Wait for weakness to play out
  • Consider bounce trades only near support

🪙 Commodities & Crypto:

• Gold (MCX): ₹98,223 — Sell bias
• Silver: ₹1,14,815 — Flat
• Crude: ₹5,742 — Neutral
• NatGas: ₹270 — Reversal watch
• Dollar Index & USDINR: Trading flat

“Don’t buy the open. Let weakness play out early. Watch 24,720–24,780 for potential bounce trades. Vols are still suppressed, so trend clarity may only come post-Fed. Pharma shows strength, rest of the market looks fragile.”

📅 New episodes drop every market morning by 8:30–8:45 AM IST

🎧 Trade Setup with TANMAY KURTKOTI — your daily edge before the chaos begins.

Welcome to EP13 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your 5-minute market prep before the chaos begins.

It’s expiry day, and the setup is primed for an upward bias. Gift Nifty is trading 50 points higher at 25,297, while vols remain extremely compressed. TK breaks down the global cues, client vs pro positioning, sector momentum, and expiry trades.

🌏Global Snapshot

• Nasdaq: +127 pts — new highs led by Alphabet
• S&P 500: 6,358 (+49 pts)
• Dow Futures: Flat to negative
• Asia: Rally continues as US–India trade tensions ease
• Crude: Subdued at $68.67
• Gold: Cooled off to $33.85/oz
• Dollar Index: 97.19
• USDINR: 86.41 — INR weakness continues

📊FII/DII Activity

• FIIs: Sold ₹4,209 Cr
• DIIs: Bought ₹4,358 Cr
• MTD Net:
  • FIIs: -₹26,395 Cr
  • DIIs: +₹35,070 Cr

💼Earnings Today

• Bajaj Finance, Nestle, Canara Bank, REC, Adani Transmission, Apollo, ACC, Emphasis, and more — watch for stock-specific moves

Client vs Pro Positioning

Clients:

• Long Futures: 1.01 lakh
• Call Shorts: 2.19 lakh
• Put Shorts: 2.84 lakh
• Net Option Bias: +65,000 (mildly bullish)
• Shift from put to call shorts could be a trap

Pros:

• Call Longs: 1.97 lakh
• Put Longs: 1.34 lakh
• Net Option Bias: +62,000
• Futures: +10,000 — bullish confirmation

📈Sector Signals (TK Screener)

Strong Momentum:

• Finance
• Bank Nifty
• Infra
• Metals
• Midcaps
• Auto
• CPSC
• Capital Markets

Neutral:

• FMCG
• Realty
• IT

No strong sell signals today.

Volatility & Expiry Trades

• Spot: 25,209
• Expected Open: 25,270–25,280
• IVs (24 Jul): ~8%
• 31 Jul IV: 8.44%
• August IV: ~10%
• ATM Straddle (25,250): ~₹100
  • Could open at ₹85–90
  • Collapse to ₹50 likely by midday

  📌 Trade Ideas:

• Long Calendar: Buy 31 Jul / Sell 24 Jul
• Butterfly for expiry: Pin around 25,350–25,400

🪙

Commodities & Crypto

• Gold (MCX): ₹1,528,000 — strong
• Silver: ₹1,16,533 — strong
• Crude: ₹5,630 — weak
• NatGas: ₹279 — sell
• BTC: ₹11,80,000 — neutral

“Pros and clients are both long — expiry is set for a bullish tilt. Watch 25,170–25,180 as buy zones on dips. Calendars make sense with IVs so low. Use butterflies for expiry pinning if trend holds.”

📅 New episodes drop every market morning by 8:30–8:45 AM IST.

🎧 Trade Setup with Tanmay — your daily edge before the chaos begins.

Welcome to EP12 of Trade Setup with TANMAY, your 5-minute prep before the markets open.

Markets continue to gap up in the morning and fade mid-session. With volatility near record lows and clients overloaded on put shorts, is another trap brewing? Let’s dive in.

Global Markets:

• Dow: +129 pts
• S&P 500: Flat at 6,309
• Nasdaq: Still strong at 20,892
• Europe: Mixed — DAX down 1.1%, FTSE & CAC flat
• Asia: Strong open — Nikkei +3%, Taiwan, Hang Seng positive

Indian Markets:

• Gift Nifty: +78 pts at 25,164
• Expected open: Nifty around 25,150

FII/DII Activity:

• FIIs: Sold ₹3,548 Cr
• DIIs: Bought ₹5,239 Cr
• MTD Net:
  • FIIs: -₹22,185 Cr
  • DIIs: +₹30,730 Cr

Volatility Watch:

• 21 July IV: ~8%
• 31 July IV: ~9%
• August IV: ~10%
• Straddle (24 Jul @ 25,000): ₹134
  • Implied range: 24,980 – 25,200

  Volatility is crushed. Range is tight. A breakout is due if direction strengthens.

Sector View (TK Algo):

Strength:

• CPSE
• Capital Markets
• Select Finance & Metals

Weakness:

• FMCG
• Infra
• Pharma
• Midcap
• IT

Nifty Signal: Still in Sell Mode on TK Algo & Scanner

Client vs Pro Positioning:

Clients:

• Long Futures: 97,000
• Short Calls: 23,000
• Short Puts: 4.08 lakh
• Net Long Bias: +3.08 lakh contracts

Pros:

• Futures Long: 15,000 (flat)
• Call Longs: 37,000
• Put Longs: 21,000
• Mild short bias via options

TK’s Take:

• Daily gap-ups with no follow-through = caution
• Clients may get trapped again near open
• Watch 25,000–25,050 as buy zone
• Avoid chasing highs; buy dips near support
• Don’t force trades — wait for structure to develop
• Calendars only work post-confirmation

Commodities & Crypto:

• Gold (MCX): ₹99,217 — strong
• Silver: ₹1,40,778 — strong
• Crude & NatGas: Weak — sell mode
• Bitcoin: ₹11,80,000 — bullish
• Dollar Index: 97.51 — below 98
• USDINR: 86.36 (Res: 86.55, Sup: 86.10)

New episodes drop every market morning by 8:30–8:45 AM IST.

🎧 Trade Setup with TANMAY — your daily edge before the chaos begins.

Welcome to EP11 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your go-to 5-minute market prep before the chaos begins.

After Jane Street’s return, Monday saw a volatile drop to 24,900, followed by a solid bounce to 25,100. TK walks through global cues, internal positioning, sector strength, and smart expiry trades for the day.

📈 Global Markets:

• S&P 500 (SPY) hit a record: 6,305
• Nasdaq closed at a new high: 20,974
• Dow lost steam late but is positive again in futures
• Europe: Mixed close — FTSE, DAX up; CAC slightly down
• Asia: Rallying across the board — Nikkei, Taiwan, Jakarta all green

📊 FII/DII Flows:

• FIIs sold ₹1,681 Cr
• DIIs bought ₹3,578 Cr
• MTD flows:
  • FIIs: -₹18,636 Cr
  • DIIs: +₹25,471 Cr

  📉 Nifty & Volatility:

• Gift Nifty trading at 25,189 — up 100 points
• Expected Nifty open: around 25,150
• IVs crushed:
  • 24 July: 9.56
  • 31 July: 10.22

• ATM Straddle (25,100): ₹176 → range: 24,924 to 25,276
• Bias: Positive, but with possible intraday volatility

📈 Sector Signals (TK Screener):

Strong Sectors:

• Realty
• Capital Markets
• Metals
• Banking
• Auto
• Finance
• Midcap

Weak Sectors:

• FMCG
• IT
• Infra
• Pharma

⚙️ Client vs Pro Positioning:

Clients:

• Futures Long: ~90,000
• Call Shorts: ~1.95 lakh
• Put Shorts: ~3.90 lakh
• Net bullish stance → playing the rally

Pros:

• Futures Long: ~12,000
• Call Longs: ~1.91 lakh
• Put Longs: ~2.25 lakh
• Net buyer of options → playing for volatility return

💡 Strategy Ideas:

1. Calendar Spread @ 25,100:
   • Long straddle (31st July), Short straddle (24th July)
   • Trading at ₹148

2. Directional Put Spread (Bull Put):
   • Sell 26,000 Put (31st July)
   • Buy 25,200 Put
   • Spread width: 800 pts
   • Net credit: ~₹685
   • Max risk: ₹115

🪙 Commodities & Crypto:

• Gold (MCX): ₹98,519 — strong buy
• Silver (MCX): ₹1,13,860 — long bias
• Crude: ₹5,796 — short zone
• NatGas: Weak — sell signal
• Bitcoin: ₹11,80,000 — showing strength
• Dollar Index: Near 98 — softening trend

“Clients are loaded on puts and calls. Pros are prepping for a volatility comeback. With strong internals and global tailwinds, use calendars or directional put spreads. Avoid naked shorts — range may break.”

📅 New episodes drop every market morning by 8:45 AM.

🎧 Trade Setup with Tanmay — your 5-minute edge before the chaos begins.

Welcome to EP10 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your 5-minute edge before Indian markets open. It’s a Monday filled with heavy results, weak volatility, and divergent institutional bets. TK breaks it all down.

🔍

Top Highlights:

📉 Market Snapshot:

• Gift Nifty at 24,991 — down 40 points
• Nifty closed Friday at 25,020, flirting with key support near 24,900
• Straddle (25,000) priced at ₹256 → 1 SD range:
  • Upside: ~25,220
  • Downside: ~24,840

  🌍 Global Cues:

• US Markets closed at record highs
  • Dow: 44,390
  • Nasdaq: +10 pts
  • S&P: Flat

• Europe also ended higher
• Dollar Index: 98.40 (cracked below 98.50)
• USDINR: 86.15 (resistance: 86.25, support: 85.90)

📊 FII/DII Flows:

• FIIs net buy ₹374 Cr on Friday
• DIIs net buy ₹2,103 Cr
• MTD:
  • FIIs: -₹16,955 Cr
  • DIIs: +₹21,893 Cr

📈 Earnings Flood This Week:

• Big names reported Friday: HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Reliance
• Today’s expected results: Ultratech Cement, Havells, InterGlobe, Oberoi Realty, IDBI Bank, RBL Bank, and more

📈 Sector Signals (TK Algo):

Strength:

• Realty
• Pharma
• FMCG
• Capital Markets
• Metals

Weakness:

• Banks
• CPSC stocks
• Midcap & Smallcap

⚙️ Volatility & Strategy:

• IVs near 52-week lows
  • 24 July: 9.75
  • 31 July: 9.94
  • August: 10.72

• Bias: Consolidation with positive tilt
• Calendar spread (ATM): Trading at ₹126 → still viable
• Broken Wing Butterfly:
  • Buy 24,700
  • Sell 24,900 (x3)
  • Buy 25,050 (x2)

📌 Positioning (Clients vs Pros):

Clients:

• Long Futures: 93,000 contracts
• Call Shorts: 35,000
• Put Shorts: 4.39 lakh → strong bullish stance

Pros:

• Long Futures: 18,000
• Long Calls: 28,000
• Long Puts: 2.26 lakh → playing downside risk

“Heavy put shorts, ultra-low IVs, and upcoming earnings make this a week to stay nimble. Avoid naked shorts, play calendars, or explore broken-wing structures to define your risk.”

Trade Setup with TANMAY drops every market morning by 8:45 AM.

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Your daily trading prep — before the chaos begins.

X : @TanmayKurtkoti

Instagram : @TanmayKurtkoti_

Welcome to EP09 of Trade Setup with Tanmay your 5-minute daily prep before the market opens.

In today’s episode, Tanmay breaks down the global rally, institutional positioning, and what the algo is flashing ahead of a likely continued consolidation between key levels.

Top Highlights:

📈 Global Markets:

• US Markets closed strong:
  • Dow up 200 pts
  • S&P +33 pts
  • Nasdaq hit 20,884
• Dow Futures still up +93 pts at 7 AM IST
• Asia: All major indices (Hang Seng, Taiwan, Jakarta, Shanghai) trading 0.3%–1% higher

📉 Indian Markets Snapshot:

• Gift Nifty up 29 pts at 25,180
• Nifty Closed Yesterday at 25,110 (Expiry Day)
• Consolidation continues: Predicted range 25,100–25,300 played out well

📊 FII/DII Data:

• FII Net Sell: ₹3,694 Cr
• DII Net Buy: ₹2,820 Cr
• MTD Flows:
  • FIIs: -₹17,330 Cr
  • DIIs: +₹19,790 Cr

📈 Sector Setup (TK Algo):

Strong Sectors:

• Realty
• FMCG
• Pharma
• Metals
• Capital Markets

Weak Sectors:

• CNX IT
• Infra
• CPSC
• Banking stocks
• Nifty still in Sell on TK Algo

⚙️ Options & Volatility:

• TK Algo gave Buy IV signal (Long Gamma) yesterday at 2:30 PM
• IV Levels:
  • 24 Jul: 9.31
  • 31 Jul: 9.7–9.8
  • Aug Series: 10.8
• Vol remains low → consolidation with bullish bias expected

📌 Client vs Pro Positioning:

Clients:

• Net Call Shorts: 4,630
• Net Put Shorts: 3,47,147
• Net long futures, clearly bullish

Pros:

• Call Shorts: 35,000
• Long Puts: 1,53,891
• Turned defensive and positioned for downside

🧠 TK’s View:

• 25,000–25,050 = buy zone
• 25,300–25,350 = fade/short zone
• Market likely to grind toward new highs in 30–40 days
• Bias is still positive, dips = opportunities

💹 Commodities & Currency:

• Gold MCX: ₹97,240 – outlook remains positive
• Crude: ₹5,726 – neutral
• Silver: Weak – can be shorted
• NatGas: ₹307 – buy
• Bitcoin: ₹11,18,026 – strong
• Dollar Index: 98.43
• USDINR: 86.08 (resistance: 86.17–86.20, support: 85.85)

“Clients are still pressing bullish bets. Pros are turning cautious. Range may hold, but breakout risk is rising. Avoid naked shorts, look to fade extremes. Algo is not bullish yet — but structure is supportive.”

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Trade Setup with TK Your Daily Edge Before the Chaos Begins.

Welcome to EP08 of Trade Setup with Tanmay Kurtkoti, your daily 5-minute prep before the chaos begins. It’s expiry day and volatility is crushed — here’s your quick market pulse, sector plays, and trade ideas.

🔥

Top Highlights:

📉 Market Snapshot:

• Gift Nifty trades at 25,273, up 42 points at open.
• We’ve been range-bound around 25,200–25,250 for 5 straight sessions — and it’s worked well for volatility sellers.

🌍 Global & Asian Markets:

• Trump drama: Powell sacking threat made → later withdrawn.
• US Markets: Dow +200 pts, S&P +0.32%, Nasdaq +52 pts.
• Europe: Mixed to negative — FTSE, CAC, DAX down 0.13% to 0.57%.
• Asia: Mixed cues – Nikkei ↓, Hang Seng ↑, Taiwan ↓, Shanghai ↓, Jakarta ↑.

💹 FII/DII Flows:

• FIIs sold ₹1,858 Cr, continuing heavy exit.
• DIIs bought ₹1,223 Cr.
• MTD: FIIs net sellers ₹13,636 Cr, DIIs net buyers ₹16,969 Cr.

📊 Client & Pro Positioning:

• Clients:
  • Net Call Short: 74,409
  • Net Put Short: 3,30,256 → bullish bias

• Pros: Net long on options → playing volatility expansion

⚙️ Options & Volatility Setup:

• 17 July Expiry IV: ~8%
• Monthlies (July 31): ~9.5%
• 25200 ATM Straddle: ₹98 → 1 SD range = 25100–25300
• TK Algo Signal: Buy on Nifty
• Calendar Spread: 25200 strike trading at ₹180 – still the trade of choice.

📈 Tanmay’s Trade View:

• Expect expiry around 25,250–25,350.
• Use calendars for carry into next week.
• For expiry: deploy Iron Fly @ 25,250 with 150-point wings.
• Ideal dip buy zone: 25,060–25,070 for bounce to 25,250+

🏭 Sector Trends (TK Algo):

• Strength: Auto, FMCG, Realty, Capital Markets
• Weakness: CPSC, Metals, Financials
• Nifty/Bank Nifty/Sensex: Neutral

🛢️ Commodities & FX:

• Gold: $3,339/oz | MCX: ₹97,486 – strong
• Silver (MCX): ₹1,12,190 – strong
• NatGas: ₹304 – buy zone
• Crude: ₹5,696 – now in shorting territory
• USDINR: 85.80 (support), 86.10 (resistance) | DXY: 98.49

“Volatility is dead. Don’t chase the open — expiry trades will work best if you wait for dips or range compressions. Stick to calendar spreads, use Iron Flies, and lean on sector momentum for the edge.”

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🎧 Join again tomorrow for Trade Setup with Tanmay – your 5-minute market edge before the chaos begins.

Welcome to EP07 of Trade Setup with Tanmay Kurtkoti, your 5-minute morning podcast before the chaos begins. In this episode, Tanmay dives into US inflation, market reactions, sector rotations, and option structures for expiry week.

🔥

Top Highlights:

📉 Market Snapshot:

• Gift Nifty down 90 points, trading near 25,170 at 8:20 AM.
• Monday’s close: 25,195, minor bounce from lows.
• CPI surprise: US inflation rose to 2.7% YoY vs 2.6% expected → minor global jitters.

🌍 Global & Asian Markets:

• US Markets: Dow & S&P fell 0.2%–0.4%, Nasdaq up 0.2%
• Europe: FTSE, CAC, DAX fell 0.5%–0.6%
• Asia: Mostly green – Shanghai, Hang Seng, Jakarta, Taiwan all positive
• Non-correlation Alert: Asia up, Gift Nifty down.

💹 FII/DII Flows:

• FIIs bought ₹120 Cr in cash
• DIIs bought ₹1,555 Cr → Monthly DII inflow: ₹15,745 Cr; FIIs still net sellers: ₹11,778 Cr

🛢️ Commodities & Currency:

• Brent at $68.91 (cool-off from $70+)
• Gold: $3,327 – flat but showing strength
• Silver: ₹1,12,722 – strong buy zone
• Crude: ₹5,714 (neutral) | NatGas: ₹295 (buy zone)
• USDINR: 85.81 | DXY: 98.6 – strong bounce from 97.75

📊 Sector Signals (TK ALGO):

Strength:

• CNX Pharma
• Capital Markets
• FMCG
• Financials
• Auto, Smallcap, Midcap

Weakness:

• Infra
• CPSC
• Metals
• Nifty & Bank Nifty in neutral/sell zone

⚙️ Options & Volatility Setup:

• 17 July IV: 8.8
• 24 July IV: 9.49
• 31 July IV: 9.95
• Vols extremely suppressed → calendar spreads preferred

📈 Straddle Analysis (ATM 25,250):

• Premium: ₹142 → 1 SD range = ±124 pts
• Range: 25,050 – 25,350

💡 Strategy for Today:

• Nifty TK Signal: Sell from 25,438 (both slow & fast)
• Deploy Calendar Spread: Buy 24 Jul, Sell 17 Jul
• Iron Fly (25,250): 150-point wings for expiry trade
• Put shorts dominate: Clients have 3.45 lakh put shorts vs 1.03 lakh call shorts
• Suggestion: Hedge naked puts with OTM spreads

🔻 Crypto Watch:

• Bitcoin: ₹1,16,770 – weak zone, short opportunity

• Put-heavy client positioning may get trapped on open.
• Volatility is dirt cheap – ideal for calendars & Iron Flys.
• Watch for bounce back toward 25,300 zone by mid-week.

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🎧 Trade Setup with Tanmay – Your Daily 5-Minute Edge Before the Chaos Begins.

Welcome to Episode 6 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your 5-minute podcast before the chaos begins. In this episode, Tanmay Kurtkoti Founder QCAlpha breaks down the global setup, sector flows, volatility signals, and trade ideas for the day.

🔥

Top Highlights:

📉 Market Overview:

• SGX Nifty at 25,188, flat to mildly negative.
• Friday close: Nifty dipped below key support at 25,200, entering a volatile but low IV zone.
• Current mean reversion level: 25,300; buy near 25,000 levels.

🌍 Global Cues:

• US Markets down: Dow -0.5%, S&P -0.33%
• Weakness driven by Meta news and Trump tariff escalation.
• Asian markets mixed: Nikkei & Taiwan down, Shanghai, Hangseng, Jakarta up.

🛢️ Commodities:

• Brent Crude: $70.42
• Gold: $3,356/oz
• Silver (MCX): ₹111506 – showing strength
• Gold MCX: ₹97,373, watch for breakout above ₹97,600
• Crude & NatGas: Neutral
• Bitcoin: Trading strong around ₹1.18L

📊 FII/DII Data:

• FIIs sold ₹5,154 Cr, continuing their exit.
• DIIs bought ₹3,558 Cr; net DII inflows ~₹12,000 Cr MTD.
• FIIs remain net sellers for July: ₹10,284 Cr.

📉 Sector Signals (TK ALGO):

• Broad weakness across sectors:
  • Capital markets, Smallcap, Midcap, Metals, Auto, Infra → all negative.

• Nifty TK Algo Signal:
  • Slow Signal Sell: 25,438
  • Fast Signal Sell: 25,363

⚙️ Options & Volatility:

• IV (17 July): 9.17 (very low)
• IV (24 July): 10.0
• Suggests short-term suppression, but vol bounce likely next week.
• Calendar Spread Idea:
  • Buy 24 July straddle, Sell 17 July straddle
  • Take advantage of IV differential (long calendar)

📌 ATM Straddle (17 July @ 25,200):

• Trading at ₹244 → 1 SD range ≈ 25,000–25,300

🎯 Take:

• Low volatility = great time to initiate calendars
• Market remains in mean-reverting mode between 25,000–25,300
• Short-vol trades early in the week, prepare for vol expansion later

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